Public support for NATO's proxy war in Ukraine rests upon three frequently repeated assumptions: Russia's invasion was unexpected and unprovoked, Ukraine is a unified, democratic state, and Ukraine will win the war. Based on widely available public information, it is increasingly self-evident that all three of these assumptions are flawed. As the anniversary of the start of the war approaches, we intend discuss precisely why these views have become dangerously misleading, starting with the conclusion that Russia's behavior was somehow surprising.

Many well-informed observers agree that as the Cold War was ending, the Western powers assured the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, and that this promise was subsequently broken. In February 1990, Secretary of State James Baker met with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to discuss the reunification of Germany. Gorbachev noted that, "It goes without saying that a broadening of the NATO zone is unacceptable," and Baker responded: "We agree with that."

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