The nation's retailers enjoyed record same-store sales growth in March, smashing views Thursday as an early Easter and higher confidence drove shoppers to heat up spending on spring wardrobes and other goods.
The strength and breadth of gains suggest the retail recovery is accelerating, and that consumers are in the mood to buy more than basic necessities.
March sales at stores open at least a year climbed 8.7% vs. a year earlier, says Ken Perkins, president of Retail Metrics. That sailed past Wall Street's raised forecast of a 6.1% gain. That was the best since Perkins began tracking same-store sales in early 2000.
A hefty 86% of retailers beat views. It was the seventh straight monthly same-store sales gain.
The S&P Retail Index rose 1.3% to its best level since October 2007.
A calendar shift buoyed results. Easter came one week earlier than last year. Retailers also got a lift from easy comparisons: March 2009 comps slid 4.8%.
Still, that's not the whole story, Perkins says.
Shoppers 'Feeling Better'
"Consumers are feeling better overall about their plight," he said.
Perkins noted that the U.S. added 162,000 jobs in March while the stock market has rallied sharply the past 13 months.
"That all translates into higher consumer confidence readings and higher spending levels," he said.
Michael Niemira, chief economist at the International Council of Shopping Centers, says March same-store sales rose 9%. He figures that gain would have been 4.5% if it weren't for the Easter shift. Still, he says the results are higher than the trend we've seen since December.
Niemira says warmer weather helped lift March results, as did pent-up demand and an improved economy.
"A lot of things are falling into place to give us more confidence the retail recovery is sustainable," he said.
Pent-up demand from the recession, when consumers put a lid on spending, was a key factor, Perkins agrees.
Jharonne Martis, director of consumer research at Thomson Reuters, says teen stores are a good proxy for discretionary spending. In March, the segment's same-store sales rose 9.6%, the best gain since 2007, she says.
Department stores saw a 12.3% rise, and specialty apparel's comps grew 11.8%, says Martis. That shows shoppers are responding well to new spring fashions.
"The fact that same-store sales came in this strong suggests the consumer's willingness to pay full price is back," she said.
Moving On Up
In March, consumers traded up from discounters to higher-priced discounters like Target (TGT), says Perkins.