Most polls you're looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans' position heading into the midterm election cycle. It's not that the polls are "wrong." Rather, it's that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they're going to vote for in November, when it's likely only a distinct subset of voters who will cast a ballot. Voting booths at Public School 160 on November 3, 2020 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City.© David Dee Delgado/Getty Images Voting booths at Public School 160 on November 3, 2020 in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The voters who will actually turn out for the fall election are likely going to be disproportionately Republican based on current polling data and history.
Take a gander at our CNN/SSRS poll from last week. It featured a rather close race when all registered voters were asked who they would vote for if the election for Congress was held now. The generic Republican candidate garnered 44% to the generic Democratic candidate's 43% -- a result well within the margin of error. This poll is basically in line with the average of all polls, which has generally featured a low single digit Republican advantage on the generic ballot.........
