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The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles

Title: Trump To Win Landslide in 2020 ... reporTed in BriTain’s Express --- a bible scholar agrees ThaT Trump will win easily.
Source: uspresidentialelectionnews.com
URL Source: https://www.uspresidentialelectionn ... l&utm_campaign=zergnet_5532903
Published: Jun 11, 2020
Author: Goethe Behr
Post Date: 2020-09-10 14:18:29 by BorisY
Keywords: None
Views: 111
Comments: 6

Trump to Win Landslide in 2020

Statistical models point that way.

By Goethe Behr

June 11, 2020

Donald Trump has faced massive criticism for four years. It seemed that the Access Hollywood tape would destroy him. More recently, his former staff members have spoken for the first time. There’s an organized traditional Republican anti-Trump group, called the Lincoln Project, already running ads against him. And while Republicans in Congress don’t dare to speak against him, one did: Sen. Lisa Murkowski, of Alaska. She says she’s not sure she can vote for him.

That would ordinarily be bad news for an incumbent. People think presidents are always re-elected, but it’s not a sure thing. Less than 50 years ago, we had two incumbent presidents defeated, back- to-back: Ford and Carter. JFK didn’t get a second term, of course. Nor did Nixon. LBJ decided not to run. In fact, we had a string of five one-term presidents: JFK, LBJ, NIXON, FORD, CARTER. GHW Bush also lost his second run. Also, we’ve never had three consecutive 8- year presidents, so it might seem that the odds are against Trump.

But in it’s Capitol Report, MarketWatch says Trump is a shoo-in.

According to Moody’s Analytics, Trump is headed toward another four years in the White House. And, if the numbers are right, it won’t even be close. In fact, his Electoral College victory could very well be wider than the 304-227 margin he enjoyed over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election.

Since 1980, Moody’s has managed to nail the outcome every time but once — like many, it didn’t see Trump coming. . .

The team takes into account how consumers feel about their finances, the performance of the stock market SPX, -0.44% and their job prospects. Essentially, today, they’re feeling pretty good. . . Moody’s uses three models to come up with its forecast. In each case, Trump gets at least 289 Electoral College votes. . .

The “pocketbook” measure, which focus on how people feel about their money situation, is where Trump shines brightest, grabbing a whopping 351 electoral votes. . . The stock-market model gives him the slightest edge of 289-249, as investors continue to navigate a volatile investing landscape. Then there’s the unemployment model, which leans heavily in his favor at 332-206.

Of course, that report was before the Covid-19 crisis, but the stock market has already recovered, with rallies that seem to be pushing the Dow to 3,000 or above. Meanwhile, surveys have shown that most people think they’ll get their jobs back soon, so the “pocketbook” and “unemployment” models should be on his side, too.

OK, that may be “old news,” but in a report from just a few days ago, reported in Britain’s Express a bible scholar agrees that Trump will win easily.

Donald Trump has faced harsh criticism for his handling of the coronavirus crisis with many polls giving the US President disapproval ratings above 50 percent. But a Bible expert who claims to have correctly predicted Mr Trump’s shock election in 2016 believes the US President faces another term in the White House. . .

I along with a few others did predict Donald J Trump would win the 2016 American election when no one else thought it was a remote possibility.”

According to Professor [Tom] Meyer, Donald Trump will win the 2020 US election in an “epic landslide”. . . He said: “America will then continue its advancement into a golden age of unparalleled wealth and power, the likes of which the world hasn’t seen since the Roman Empire.”

The Bible expert went on to say President Trump will “make America great again” and secure the legacy of his dynasty, with his daughter Ivanka Trump becoming the first female President of the US.

Prof. Meyer says that the Trump name will be synonymous with “Caesar,” with future leaders using the title, as we saw in Germany (“Kaiser” is the German version of Caesar), and Czar in Russia.

Earlier, Steve Bannon forecast that Trump would win with 400 electoral votes.

A win of such magnitude would better Trump’s 2016 win by almost 100 electoral college votes; the Republican in 2016 gained 304 votes to his rival Hillary Clinton’s 227 votes.

That was a few years ago, but Bannon repeated the claim this year.

There are a number of models that point to a Trump landslide, according to Politico.

Models maintained by economists and market strategists like Luskin tend to ignore election polls and personal characteristics of candidates. Instead, they begin with historical trends and then build in key economic data including growth rates, wages, unemployment, inflation and gas prices to predict voting behavior and election outcomes.

Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency. . .

Luskin’s current model — which looks at GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and payrolls — has Trump winning by a blowout margin of 294 electoral votes. . . Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and a regular Trump critic, has been road-testing a dozen different economic models for the 2020 race. At this point, Trump wins in all 12 — and quite comfortably in most of them.

Forbes says, specifically, that Trump will win, despite Covid-19.

Yes despite the dire state of the economy Trump’s latest approval rating is still at a robust 49% for the period May 1 -13, according to Gallup.

At the same time in their presidencies George W Bush and Barrack Obama both had approval ratings of 47%, which is slightly lower than Trump’s. Yet both those presidents went on to win a second term in office.

All those forecasts are in the standard mode. But Real Clear Politics (RPC) came up with a shocking possibility: Trump could lose the popular vote in a landslide, and still stay in office.

If the election were held today, these polls indicate that Trump would lose by 10 million to 15 million popular votes – a margin even greater than the crushing defeat of Jimmy Carter by Ronald Reagan in 1980. But, unlike Carter, Trump would have about an even chance of winning a majority of electoral votes and becoming president. . .

in the 21st century, two of three presidents have been elected without winning the popular vote: George W. Bush in the tight race of 2000 and Trump, who received 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton (causing him to change his mind about the Electoral College’s threat to democracy).

As we have noted elsewhere, Trump won in 2016 with just 31 percent of registered voters. That’s 19 percent of the people, as a whole. It’s because our current system focuses all the attention on a few swing states. As RCP notes, “In 2016, some 94% of candidate events in the general election occurred in just 12 battleground states. Their citizens, who comprise a fifth of the U.S. population, determine who will be president.”

All this is to say, for all the glee on the Democratic side, Trump could still win in a landslide—or even win by losing by a landslide!

Goethe Behr is a Contributing Editor and Moderator at Election Central. He started out posting during the 2008 election, became more active during 2012, and very active in 2016. He has been a political junkie since the 1950s and enjoys adding a historical perspective.


Poster Comment:

apocalpyse

apocalpyse

apocalpyse

apocalpyse

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#1. To: All (#0)

apocalypse[ uh-pok-uh-lips

noun

revelation

any of a class of Jewish or Christian writings that appeared from about 200 b.c. to a.d. 350 and were assumed to make revelations of the ultimate divine purpose.

a prophetic revelation, especially concerning a cataclysm in which the forces of good permanently triumph over the forces of evil.

any revelation or prophecy.

any universal or widespread destruction or disaster:

the apocalypse of nuclear war.

https://www.dictionary.com/browse/apocalypse

--------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------------------------------

apocalypse

c.1384, “revelation, disclosure,” from Church L. apocalypsis “revelation,” from Gk. apokalyptein “uncover,” from apo- “from” (see apo-) + kalyptein “to cover, conceal” (see Calypso). The Christian end-of-the-world story is part of the revelation in John of Patmos’ book “Apokalypsis” (a title rendered into Eng. as “Apocalypse” c.1230 and “Revelations” by Wyclif c.1380).

http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?term=apocalypse

If you ... don'T use exclamaTion poinTs --- you should'T be Typeing ! Commas - semicolons - quesTion marks are for girlie boys !

BorisY  posted on  2020-09-10   14:48:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: BorisY (#0)

[Goethe Behr] People think presidents are always re-elected, but it’s not a sure thing. Less than 50 years ago, we had two incumbent presidents defeated, back- to-back: Ford and Carter. JFK didn’t get a second term, of course. Nor did Nixon.

In his reelection, Nixon scored the biggest landslide ever, winning every state but South Dakota. He did not finish his second term.

nolu chan  posted on  2020-09-10   20:25:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: nolu chan (#2)

Always be cautious when comparing apples with "oranges." (Heh.)

Moody's here has omitted the "idiot" factor - as in: The democrats have managed to locate the biggest national scale idiot that they could possibly find to stand as the incumbent's opponent.

The dems have finally corralled a career politician who can barely string a coherent thought together to present in major address.

JOE BIDEN: "I carry with me---I don't have it...gave it to my staff. I carry with me, in my pocket, a...do I have that around? Anyone...where's my staff?...I gave it away, anyway...I carry a schedule in my pocket."

Etc., etc. . . .

I am convinced they are in it to lose.

randge  posted on  2020-09-11   8:12:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: randge (#3)

Moody's here has omitted the "idiot" factor - as in: The democrats have managed to locate the biggest national scale idiot that they could possibly find to stand as the incumbent's opponent.

The worst part is the Dem party selected the best candidate they had within the establishment. Senile Joe is only bad until you imagine one of the other candidates leading the ticket. Liawatha, aka Gray Beaver? Cory Booker? Socialist Bernie Sanders? Pete Buttigieg? The only one who sounded sane was Tulsi Gabbard, but she was not acceptable to the Dem establishment. The last loser standing was selected by the party elite to be the nominee. Then the party elite chose Kamala Harris as the least offensive black woman. I would have preferred Maxine Waters for entertainment value, but we can't have everything. What potential ticket did they have to go for the win? Perhaps that charismatic leader, Tom Perez?

They are using COVID-19 to hide Basement Joe away all the way to the election. As he must remain hidden, Heels Up Harris must also remain hidden. The 2020 Democratic National Campaign is being carried out by Antifa and BLM. There is no political campaign as we historically know a campaign. Vote Democrat or the cities will burn. It is doubtful that will play in the cities, much less the burbs. One thing they have positively accomplished is to motiviate people to exercise their 2A rights to buy guns and ammo.

With the election less than two months away, typical signage is practically non-existent. Senile Joe can't even carry off a fake press conference where he is given scripted questions and provided answers to read off a teleprompter. He is reading cues off the teleprompter and asking staff to adjust the teleprompter. It's worse than Hillary just getting the questions from Donna Brazile.

The Dem establishment could not bring themselves to nominate Bernie Sanders, so they settled for Bernie Lomax. The only suspense might be guessing the precise reason the debates will be called off, the timing of the announcement, and why it is Trump's fault.

nolu chan  posted on  2020-09-11   19:13:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: nolu chan (#4)

but she was not acceptable to the Dem establishment

Thanks for the dispassionate and reasonable assessment of where the dems are at.

What I find hard to digest is the degree to which their leadership succumbs to the most masochistic analysis of the situation and embarks on the most self-destructive path imaginable.

It seems to that in choosing a man suffering from a profound but natural mental decline as their party standard, these guys must want to lose.

I dunno. Perhaps I'm wrong.

randge  posted on  2020-09-12   11:53:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: randge (#5)

I would not say the Dems chose the most destructive path possible. A correct assessment requires backing up to early 2020 before COVID, but after the early Dem debates which took place at the end of 2019. Twenty candidates took the stage, not counting Michael Bloomberg who entered later. It was like a clown show, seeing who could pander more to the radical left that was still pissed off about the primary rigging for Hillary.

The economy was booming, unemployment was at record lows, and none of the Dem candidates looked to be on their way to the White House. The party mission was to hold on to the left wing, enhance the illegal alien vote, keep the House and possibly take the Senate. Serious contenders for the presidency will come out of the woodwork in 2024 when they will not have to face Trump.

Then came COVID. Never let a good disaster go to waste. The machine shut down the entire economy, and have done all they could to keep as much as possible shut down until the election. What worsens the economy and the unemployment numbers worsens the appeal of the Trump campaign.

While the situation had changed by March, the early debates and front-loaded primaries made it practically impossible for new, more effective candidates to join the race. It went from twenty candidates to one as the party elite chose their candidate and the others just melted away.

When a popular incumbent president is running for reelection, the opposition frequently settles for a place holder, waiting four more years to launch a real effort. Adlai Stevenson's second run against Eisenhower, McGovern against Nixon who won 49 states, or Mittens against Obama. Somebody had to take one for the team.

Consider the stadiums being filled by Trump for his rallies. Had COVID not stepped in to shut everything down, what Dem was going to compete with that? Even when Joe! ventures out of his basement to visit a nearby state and take no questions, he has more press show up than supporters. He may even have more Trump supporters show up than Joe! supporters.

The Antifa/BLM campaign has not worked as desired. They succeeded at creating chaos in the streets of several cities, but they failed to sucker Trump into unlawfully invoking the incurrection act and inserting federal troops. They did not manage to recreate a Kent State result. Instead, it went on too long and created a backlash, and a Get Woke, Go Broke effect. Colin Kaepernick is in Madden 2021. Lamar Jackson (regular season MVP) is on the cover with an 0-2 record in the playoffs, and ESPN and sports are all woke SJW all the time. Even with people locked out of stadiums and very restricted outside-the-home activity, woke sports viewership down from last year's dismal ratings.

Trump has had fair success at raising public sentiment against the continued selective lockdowns. Trump has had very good success with the economy and the stock market. Unemployment is reducing quickly. Lockdowns are becoming transparent political bullshit. Trump has left the Dems railing against his giving additional free money to the unemployed wile unwiling to legally contest the matter. He has left the Dems unable to condemn the Antifa anarchists-for-hire without antagonizing the Dem radical left wing and the socialist Bernie Bros. The face of Dem leadership looks like the Schumer and Pelosi (at the hairdresser), with the Squad in waiting. The Dems have done so much pandering to illegal aliens that they have lost a sizable portion of their formerly ultra-reliable Latino and Black base. Pitch in Trump's moving the embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, plus a couple of treaties involving official recognition of Israel, and some of the Jewish vote is siphoned away.

What is the Democratic campaign besides Orange Man Bad? How do they sell that when the people can see what Dem leadership has delivered in San Fran, Seattle, Portland, Chicago, NYC or Baltimore? Do people believe the CNN chyron about mostly peaceful protests, or do their believe their lying eyes? If 9/11 happened today, CNN would attribute it to mostly uneventful flights. At the Dem convention, all mention of the violence was suppressed. Hell, the party platform was suppressed.

The actions of the Dem party scream loudly that their internal polls (the real polls) say they are losing and their positions are being rejected. Not very effectively, Joe! is trying to make believe that Trump's policies are his own. Just who is even speaking as the leader and face of the Dem party? Nancy with the blown out hair? Joe!? Joe!s press secretary? At this point, they may be worried about losing congressional seats.

An interesting question is what happens if January 20th rolls around and they are still counting and contesting mail-in ballots? There is always the 20th Amendment:

Amendment XX

Section 1.

The terms of the President and Vice President shall end at noon on the 20th day of January, and the terms of Senators and Representatives at noon on the 3d day of January, of the years in which such terms would have ended if this article had not been ratified; and the terms of their successors shall then begin.

Section 2.

The Congress shall assemble at least once in every year, and such meeting shall begin at noon on the 3d day of January, unless they shall by law appoint a different day.

Section 3.

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President. If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified; and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

Section 4.

The Congress may by law provide for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the House of Representatives may choose a President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them, and for the case of the death of any of the persons from whom the Senate may choose a Vice President whenever the right of choice shall have devolved upon them.

Section 5.

Sections 1 and 2 shall take effect on the 15th day of October following the ratification of this article.

Section 6.

This article shall be inoperative unless it shall have been ratified as an amendment to the Constitution by the legislatures of three-fourths of the several states within seven years from the date of its submission.

Let's parse that out.

If, at the time fixed for the beginning of the term of the President, the President elect shall have died, the Vice President elect shall become President.

Let us assume the President elect is either undecided or not dead. They simply have not finished the vote count. Does not apply.

If a President shall not have been chosen before the time fixed for the beginning of his term, or if the President elect shall have failed to qualify, then the Vice President elect shall act as President until a President shall have qualified

Let us assume that if the President elect has not been decided, then the Vice President elect is equally undecided, but that all the candidates are qualified. Does not apply.

and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

But there is no indication that either Trump or Biden, or Pence or Harris, would be unqualified in the constitutional sense of being a natural born citizen and at least 35 years of age.

The Constitution does not really provide for a situation where the election is undecided because the government has not finished counting the votes within four months time.

nolu chan  posted on  2020-09-12   17:21:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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