[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Buffalo Police Seriously Injure 75-Year-Old Man During Protest

The Carrie Nations: "Find It" (Obscure '60s Psych Rock from "Valley of The Dolls")

Take Your Favorite Kids To a Playground This Weekend

Bullitt Mustang Auction

Free Convertible Teslas (Tesla Model 3 crashes into overturned truck on highway)

Armed Patriots patrol Coeur d’Alene

How to fight back against antifa rioters without using violence

CNN: White Children ‘Don’t Deserve Innocence’

Joel Osteen Joins Paula White, Tony Evans And Other High-Level Laodicean Church Hirelings To March In Solidarity With Black Lives Matter

David Dees, CT artist, 1957-2020

RIOT COMPILATION IN THE USA

Leftist rioters coming for you

11 "Modern Antiques" Kids Today Have Never Seen

Tucker Carlson: This Is How Nations Collapse (a long but worthy read)

The Truth About Police Violence and Race

NBA announcer Grant Napear fired over ‘All Lives Matter’ comment

"WE'RE ON YOUR SIDE! WE'RE ON YOUR SIDE" Hilarious!

'He Did Not Pray': Fallout Grows From Trump's Photo-Op At St. John's Church

The Bible according to Pelosi

Israeli scientists dig up cannabis traces in ancient temple

The Epitome of Rioting Irony and Ignorance in One Tweet

George Floyd Endgame: Martial Law and a Police State

(Martial Law) “Light Em Up!” Minneapolis PD and National Guard Do A Street Sweep During Curfew

Salt Lake City cops shove down an elderly man with a cane for moving too slowly

They call him Martin Looter Kang (Looters loot from other looters to get more loot)

White People, Portland Cops Take a Knee to Ask Forgiveness For “Racism”

The Virtue of the Fear Mask

Trump deploys US military to restore order in Washington, DC & says he'll do the same EVERYWHERE if local govts fail

Is It One Gigantic Psy-Op? George Floyd’s Coroner Was Also Jeffrey Epstein’s

It Don’t Make Any Damn Sense (Must Watch)

Minneapolis Rioters Attack Tanker Truck, Rip Driver Out and Beat Him, Driver arrested

New York woman attacked outside business in disturbing video as looting, rioting grip Rochester, report says

Minneapolis Police will fine, cite looters

The Pandemic Is the Right Time to Defund the Police

Teen rushed to hospital with hammer stuck in head after random attack

The Incredible Story of the US Army's Earth-Shaking, Off-Road Land Trains

PLACING BRICK PILES FOR RIOTERS TO DESTROY BUILDINGS IN DALLAS!

Fear and Uncertainty: The Modern-Day Cult of Corona.

Watch SpaceX Falcon 9 and Dragon rocket launch

China reveals plan for ‘Heavenly Palace’ space station to rival ISS

‘Rich Mitch’ Gets Scorched In GOP Ad

THE ENEMY WITHIN: Ilhan Omar’s CUNT of a Daughter Retweets List Of “Supplies” Needed For Minneapolis Riot

According to Attorney the DNI Allegedly Has Call Records Between Seth Rich and WikiLeaks – It’s Now Presumed Brennan’s CIA Was More Involved Than We Thought

Power Freaks Losing Control As Public Laughs At Coronavirus Lockdowns

A Women Gets Her Contact Tracer Certificates and Tells All

Why You Might Rent Yourself A Mustang This Weekend

Minneapolis Riots Are a Reminder that Police Don't Protect You or Your Property

Arkansas Can't Secure Financial Assistance Site So Governor Asa Hutchinson Decides To Call The Person Discovering The Breach A Criminal

NBC Bans Reporters From Using The Word ‘Riot’ In Coverage Of Minnesota Riots

Police Investigate 7-Year-Old’s Toy Gun After Zoom Call


Status: Not Logged In; Sign In

How To
See other How To Articles

Title: Get Rid of Your Thinking Errors
Source: [None]
URL Source: [None]
Published: Jan 7, 2016
Author: Joachim I Krueger Ph.D.
Post Date: 2020-04-08 12:51:37 by Gatlin
Keywords: None
Views: 78
Comments: 2

Get Rid of Your Thinking Errors
Lift the veil of illusion and live well.

You think poorly. This is the message that has emerged from decades of research in cognitive and social psychology. The honing and tuning of this message owes much to Danny Kahneman who tirelessly professes not wanting to denigrate human intelligence only then to proceed to do just that. His 2011 book Thinking, fast and slow was a whopping success. Why? Part of the reason is that Kahneman writes well, so well that your cognitive illusions he wants you to know about leap from the page. You do not need to deploy statistical or logical reasoning to understand his point that you stink at statistical and logical reasoning. The ploy of showing you your cognitive illusions and making you pay for it has become a fabulous business plan. Dan Ariely, Dan Gilbert, and Marzu Bánaji, among others, have made handsome profits from telling you how dense you are. Their success proves them right, not just pragmatically, but literally. Another reason for the message’s popularity is your psychological masochism. It hurts so good when your stupidity is exposed and you are led to imagine how awesome your life will be when your rationality is unleashed. A less appetizing possibility is that you appreciate the message of stupidity, but think it applies to others out on the street, but not to you. This would be an example of self-enhancement or overconfidence, phenomena that feature prominently on the list of cognitive sins. Many people are happy to believe that others are biased or otherwise cognitively compromised but they themselves are surely not. So there’s a market.

Along comes Rolf Dobelli, a Swiss novelist and amateur psychologist who published Die Kunst des klaren Denkens (2012), translated as The art of thinking clearly (2013) in our language. Rolf’s book is a list. Can you believe it? The book is a list of 99 thinking errors, each described vividly on a couple of pages and accompanied by an admonition not to make it. 99! He couldn’t think of a hundredth? The book is literally a list. It has no narrative arc, though there is an informative epilogue. Each item/thinking error was published previously in a periodical; the book is a collection. There seems to have been no editing, not even an attempt to give some structure to the material. One could have sorted the material so that the social (e.g., conformity, authority, perceived similarity), the statistical (e.g. regression, selective sampling, base rates), and the egocentric errors (e.g., introspection, affect, dissonance) come in thematic sections. No such luck. Dobelli imposes on you the burden of categorization. Given what he says about your ability to do that, he was apparently not assuming you would.

So what is Dobelli trying to accomplish besides making money by insulting the audience? The meta-message he wants to convey more im- than explicitly is that there is no positive theory of how to think well – or else he would tell you about it – being an honorable man. No, according to Dobelli and his intellectual ilk (Gilbert, Ariely, Banaji et alii), there is only a science of poor thought, and to think well is to not think poorly. It is a negative definition of thinking. You’ll be fine if you don’t commit any of the 99 fallacies that are waiting for you. “Eliminate” – Dobelli writes – “the downside, the thinking errors, and the upside will take care of itself. This is all we need to know” (pp. 299-300). But how do we know when there is an error in need of elimination? Dobelli himself talks about chauffeur knowledge in chapter 10 (Don’t take news anchors seriously), asking you to distinguish ‘real’ knowledge from ‘chauffeur’ knowledge. “Do not,” he oracles, “confuse the company spokesperson, the ringmaster, the newscaster, the schmoozer, the verbiage vendor, or the cliché generator with those who possess true knowledge” (p. 48). How can you tell the difference? Dobelli claims – with categorical certainty – that true knowledge comes with an admission of uncertainty, whereas chauffeur knowledge is expressed (over)confidently. Oy, there’s a grain of truth there, but that’s about it. Some true knowledge is certain (the square root of 49 is 7) and some chauffeur knowledge is dressed up with rhetorical hesitation. It only takes a clever chauffeur to do that. In other words, Dobelli gives you just another heuristic, a rule of thumb that often works, but also brings forth 99 errors in the process.

I sympathize with the negative definition to some extent. It works well in ethics. Rabbi Hillel cast the golden rule in negative terms. Do not do unto others what is abhorrent to you. Hewing to this rule goes a long way to make you ethical without giving you a positive theory of ethics. For the study of rational thinking, however, a blanket call to stay away from making mistakes tells us very little about what rational thinking is. Dobelli’s book has been misnomed.

Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

#1. To: Gatlin, trumpkin canary TDS (#0)

The TDS trumpkin nation.



Ron Paul - Lake Jackson Texas Values

Hondo68  posted on  2020-04-08   15:24:54 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Hondo68 (#1)

Hondo, where oh where did you get the picture of Gatlin ??

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

"If there are no dogs in Heaven, then when I die I want to go where they went." (Will Rogers)

"No one ever rescues an old dog. They lay in a cage until they die. PLEASE save one. None of us wants to die cold and alone... --Dennis Olson "

People that say money can't buy you happiness, have never paid an adoption fee

Stoner  posted on  2020-04-08   18:48:02 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


TopPage UpFull ThreadPage DownBottom/Latest

[Home]  [Headlines]  [Latest Articles]  [Latest Comments]  [Post]  [Mail]  [Sign-in]  [Setup]  [Help]  [Register] 

Please report web page problems, questions and comments to webmaster@libertysflame.com