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Title: Gatlins Stock tips and money advice
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Published: Feb 5, 2018
Author: Hopefully Gatlin
Post Date: 2018-02-05 18:32:47 by A K A Stone
Keywords: None
Views: 33141
Comments: 167
You wanna get rich? You just might if you follow this advice.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 153.
Hope you don't mind.
#2. To: A K A Stone (#1)
There is no link to any advice that I can find.
Check it ...
#3. To: Gatlin (#2)
It is for you to provide the content.
#4. To: A K A Stone (#3) (Edited)
It is for you to provide the content.
Start by reading here: The Key To Stock Market Success.
#6. To: Gatlin (#4)
That is a lot of links. How about some specifics.
If I had a thousand bucks and I wanted to invest it for a month, what would you buy?
#8. To: A K A Stone (#6)
I will do this exercise for you in steps but it is important that I begin by presenting the definition of Swing Trading: If I had a thousand bucks and I wanted to invest it for a month, what would you buy?
This is going to be difficult to answer. It will take time and some detailed explanation, but I will do this for you. First of all, I cannot answer the question as you posed it because I have never approached trading in that manner. Meaning, As a Swing Trader, I always place a Stop Loss order on each equity I purchase. So, the sell order occurs automatically and I therefore place no time restrictions on any stock buy. I am sometimes in and out of a stock within few minutes and often times I am in and out of a stock the same day, At other times, I am in for as long as a month or two before being being automatically sold out.
DEFINITION of 'Swing Trading'Swing trading attempts to capture gains in a stock (or any financial instrument) within an overnight hold to several weeks. Swing traders use technical analysis to look for stocks with short-term price momentum. These traders may utilize fundamental or intrinsic value of stocks in addition to analyzing the price trends and patterns. BREAKING DOWN 'Swing Trading'The trader must act quickly to find situations in which a stock has the extraordinary potential to move in such a short time frame. Therefore, swing trading is mainly used by at-home and day traders. Large institutions trade in sizes too big to move in and out of stocks quickly. The individual trader is able to exploit such short-term stock movements without having to compete with the major traders. Swing trading involves holding a position either long or short at least overnight and or up to several weeks. The goal is to capture a larger price move than is possible on an intra-day basis. Swing trading assumes a larger price range and price move and therefore requires careful position sizing to minimize downside risk. Swing trading can involve a mix of fundamental and technical analysis. Swing trades usually rely on larger time frame charts including the 15-minute, 60-minute, daily and weekly charts. Swing trades tend to require more holding time to generate the anticipated price move. Day Trading Versus Swing TradingThe distinction between swing trading and day trading is the holding position time. Swing trading involves at least an overnight hold, whereas day trading closes out positions before the market close. Day trading positions are segmented to a single day only. Swing trading involves holding for several days to weeks. By holding overnight, the swing trader incurs the unpredictability of overnight risk resulting in gaps up or down against the position. By undertaking the overnight risk, swing trades are usually done with a smaller position size compared to day trading, which utilizes larger position sizes usually involving leverage through day trading margin. Swing trading can utilize the overnight margin of 50% if the account meets the pattern day trading (PDT) rule of maintaining at least $25,000 in account equity. Swing trading on margin can be extra risky in the event a margin call triggers. A swing trader tends to look for multi-day chart patterns. Some of the more common patterns involve moving average crossovers, cup-and-handle patterns, head and shoulders patterns, flags, and triangles. Key reversal candlesticks, such as hammers for reversal bottoms and shooting stars for reversal price tops, are commonly used in addition to other indicators to devise a solid trading game plan. Stop-losses tend to also be wider when swing trading to match the proportionate profit target. |
| I will offer no advice....none whatsoever. But since you asked and definitely seem interested, I will do a ONE time walk-though exercise with you. I will tell you what I am now planning. I may modify my plan tomorrow morning depending on the opening price of the stock I choose. I am out of the market right now. Fortunately for me, all of my stocks sold off automatically on Friday with a stop loss order at one percent. I started to buy back in today but decided not to because the market was so jittery. BTW, no plan will get you rich in the stock market. But doing the right things consistently over the years can be comforting and enjoyable. There is an old addage many of you may have heard. It goes something like this: The way to make get one million dollars out of the stock market is to start with two million dollars.” I will begin the first step walking you through it in my next post. This will be fun ... |
#9. To: A K A Stone, Pinguinite (#8) (Edited)
| Again, I understand what you are asking, Stone....but I have no answer for you. You definitely need to check with Pinguinite who declared in a post to me:
I don't think you know as much about trading as I do, Gatlin. That being the case, I will at anytime graciously yield to his deep breadth of knowledge, his profound wisdom and great expertise as a stock trader. Since I know of no quick-pick stock to buy when looking for a profit in 30 days. I will therefore explain my Swing Trading procedures for you....for what it’s worth. When I am starting a new purchase, as I am now, I go to barchart.com and click on ”Stocks” and then on the next page I click on “New Recommendations” to wind up here. I then click on “16 stocks” [or whatever number is currently there] in the “100% Buy Signal” block and arrive here. I work my way down the page to find stocks with %chg” of at least a plus 1 percent. The first stock I find with that is an “old friend” I have lost money on twice before: DECK. But I could care less about before because today is a new ball game going forward. I click on “DECK” and arrive here. I check that DECK is listed on either the NYSE or the AMEX because only those exchanges permit Stop Loss Orders. So, I find DECK is listed on the NYSE. And I see that DECK has a “5-Day Change of +7.38% which fits my minimum of 5% for 5-days. I next check for “Avg Vol” of at least 100,000 shares. I want a large volume trade because with a low volume of say a couple thousand, I could be stuck there for days waiting for a buyer before my automatic Stop Loss Order kicked in. I see the DECK has an “Avg Vol” of 789,310....so I am still a “go” to move on to the next step. At the drop-down “GO TO” block near the top, I select “Performance Report” and arrive here. It is not unusual to see a “+” for the “Past 5 Days %Chg.” Which when fitted in with all the previous perimeters would give the utmost perfect buy signal. However, here I see a three consecutive day climbs of “+” which is usually my minimum. BUT, when the graph below those numbers has a good steady climb, with no erratic up and down movements, I can go with as few as 2 positive upward movements. DECK is definitely first on my consider list for tomorrow morning. A cursory glance shows there a a few more stocks I may add, but I will stop here for this exercise. I stay away form the high percentage jumps, like the 12 and 13 percent that caught my eye. With that kind of jump, I am pretty sure to see a drop the next day. So there you have the first step of what I will be doing throughout the rest of this evening and at different times when I wake up during the night. See you tomorrow morning when I will make a $10,000 purchase of DECK and be off and running to keep you posted on the progress over the next few minutes or I hope, the next few days. I mostly buy in with $20,000. But I am somewhat cautious considering the jittery movement of the market. I mentioned that I have purchased DECK before with two losses. I bought back in each time my buy perimeters were met. Here are the results of one of those transactions. You will see the buy date, the number of shares I purchased, the Stop Loss Order price, the actual buy amount price and the actual sell amount price when the Stop Loss Order kicked in. Lastly, the plus and minus readings from right to left show that I bought the stock when it went up two days. Then it dropped down one day but not below 1%....then it went up two days only to drop the next to below my 1% Stop Loss and it automatically sold. DECK - 01/26 Buy Date - 226 Shares – $88.02 Stop Loss – Buy Amount $19,995.33 – Sell Amount $19,791.34 – Daily Movement [read from right to left] -++-++. I have been in and out of DECK at least once before this but I usually only keep the last five action days on record. I just happen to have 01/26 because I hadn’t gotten around to deleting it. Don’t let this all sound too rosy to you. I have had some big gains as well as some huge losses since 1965. I had losses for one period over three straight years. But I had enough reserve capital to continue and enough guts to be persistent. But I do realize that as a trader, but for the grace of God, I could have wound up as big a loser today as I am a winner. This is probably not what you are looking for Stone. In any case, it is all I have to offer. This is what I do throughout the trading day and for periods at night. You have to have a passion and a love for doing it hours at a time. It is not something to undertake part time. In between trades and while waiting for actions....I enjoy posting on LF. Remember that this plan is not engraved in granite. Should I find it not working or needing a change....I will do that on a moment’s notice. I don’t think this is really what you are looking for, Stone. But let me know if you are interested and I will continue with this exercise tomorrow morning. If you are not interested, I will not be offended should you want to save us both time by stopping here. |
#10. To: Gatlin (#9)
That being the case, I will at anytime graciously yield to his deep breadth of knowledge, his profound wisdom and great expertise as a stock trader.
I don't do stocks. I do forex. I work with the MT4 platform.
But reading your post it's obvious you do know about stocks, and in fact more about stocks than me. To go 3 straight years with losses and continue through to success is, while obviously not a streak to strive for, does require a professional mindset to survive. If you've done that, my hat's off to you for persevering.
But my comment about knowing more about trading than you do was based on your comparison (if it *was* yours) of bitcoin to the Hunt brother's attempt to corner the market, especially when the mechanism that killed them was a change in the trading rules substantially reducing their leverage which forced them to liquidate their silver positions, when you know, or should have known, that bitcoin obtained it's highs without any leverage being utilized at all, which while not proof bitcoin is quality asset, should nonetheless be respected as a remarkable achievement in the market. That is a very significant difference and seemingly one you missed. And after I point that out you claim the similarity is that both situations ended the party due to interference by authorities. Well, in the case of bitcoin/cryptos, no one government is big enough to do what an exchange did to the Hunt brothers because crytpo trading is decentralized, and that is it's trump card.
In my view, your comparison is a poor one and is why it was apparent to me that I knew more about trading than you.
But okay, since you are a professional trader, you already have a grasp on the importance of setting aside emotion when making trading decisions. So why is it you can accept 3 years of losses and remain optimistic about stocks, but when cryptos have 6 weeks of losses, you say the party is over for them? I would expect any pro trader to admit he cannot predict the market with more than a modest degree of certainty, but you clearly did. I've offered arguments in favor of cryptos based on the changing and growing technology the world is undergoing on ALL fronts and you ignore those arguments completely, simply quoting lots of old school types who don't see it. Apparently you are like them, old school, so what they say is easy for you to accept as authoritative and knowledgeable on the subject, but you, like them, are not even open to the possibility that maybe cryptos do possess some advantages in the market that conventional systems don't have. It's not unlike how pre-WWII, the navy brass refused to believe the battleship could be surpassed in naval supremecy on the high seas, ignoring General Billy Mitchell's warnings about how the airplane was now the superior weapon. He was courtmartialed and forced out of the military but after Pearl Harbor, ended up having an WWII aircraft named after him (and his rank restored).
So I say you cannot be locked into old tech, refusing to acknowledge the new, which is what you are doing. If you have an actual argument against cryptos, then by all means make it. But it seems you've hardly even tried to even field one. It seems instead your opposition to cryptos is emotionally based and you simply get on the same anti-crypto emotion train as all other naysayers, even though you already know emotions are the bane of any trader. So yes, I proceeded to make my observation about how I thought I knew more about trading than you.
#22. To: Pinguinite (#10)
I have nothing against new tech (bitcoin) and I am for anything (well, with certain exceptions....of course) I can make money from. And I can see the day that if bitcoin survives (as I hope that it does) there will be ways to do 2x and 3x buys and the same with short sells. The market always eventually provides those mechanisms. If you have never seen this, here it is ... Hey, these last couple of exchanges have been good ones....thanks for that. Personal note: This is the second day I am not working 20 to 30 trades. The Friday and Monday dips, which I was prepared for with Stop Losses but did not know when to expect, set me at ease for a couple more days now until trends are again established so I can determine which equities are moving up with a three-day upward progression. Returning to finish my response to your post... So I say you cannot be locked into old tech, refusing to acknowledge the new, which is what you are doing. If you have an actual argument against cryptos, then by all means make it. But it seems you've hardly even tried to even field one. It seems instead your opposition to cryptos is emotionally based and you simply get on the same anti-crypto emotion train as all other naysayers, even though you already know emotions are the bane of any trader. So yes, I proceeded to make my observation about how I thought I knew more about trading than you.
Wow. You and I do have a failure to communicate. I will accept the fault blame for that and try harder to be more detailed in my statements. It's not unlike how pre-WWII, the navy brass refused to believe the battleship could be surpassed in naval supremecy on the high seas, ignoring General Billy Mitchell's warnings about how the airplane was now the superior weapon. He was courtmartialed and forced out of the military but after Pearl Harbor, ended up having an WWII aircraft named after him (and his rank restored).
I find this to be cute, and I am not being sarcastic....you using Billy Mitchell as an analogy to me, a retired U.S. Air Force officer.
#59. To: Gatlin (#22)
Hey, these last couple of exchanges have been good ones....thanks for that.
It is my first preference to get along with everyone, even with people I disagree with politically. In my book politics is not the most important thing in life. Striving to be virtuous is.
Thank you for your well wishes trading wise. I do have some crypto trades running, and while they are, percent wise, very negative at the moment, yes at times more than 50%, I'm not "all in" and even if they went to zero, it would hurt but wouldn't kill me, and that's ignoring the fact that I've already locked in good money on cryptos, I don't use stops with cyptos, as my view of them is long term, and position size reflects that.
When Bitcoin flew up to 20K, that exceeded my expectations by far, even though I was and remain optimistic on the long term prospect for cryptos, whether or no bicoin ends up as the master crypto. In hindsight, I can see that was probably unhealthy for it, now that I've heard about many uninformed people overinvesting in a craze fashion. I still expect it to go higher, breaching 20k again and proceeding beyond, but crypto tech is still not mature enough for widespread use. It needs to reach the point where average people and storefronts can easily transact with it in a retail setting, and it's just not there yet. For that reason, the velocity of bitcoin is almost non-existent. And then we'll have the good money/bad money situation.
What I predict is that after that level of tech is obtained, bitcoin will see another significant pullback much as we've seen since Christmas, and amidst fears it will crash, people will then start to spend it before it does, and that will be the catalyst for bitcoin or whatever is king crypto at that point to take hold in retail markets. Naturally both buyers and sellers will need to be willing to transact in bitcoin.
Yes gov regulations and possible banning will be an obstacle. We'll see how it pans out. It does appear though, from my admitted bias news source, that today's senate hearing went favorably for crytos, with both regulators and senators seeming to agree that cryptos are "here to stay".
I'm sure I saw the Billy Mitchell movie as a kid. Maybe I'll watch it again sometime. The version you posted is crappy though.... it only catches about 1/3rd or 1/2 of the screen, being zoomed in.
Aviation has always been a strong interest of mine. I am a licensed private pilot. Perhaps you are too. When I grow up, I want to buy a plane. A kit plane actually. I like this one, a Zodiac CH-650.
#63. To: Pinguinite (#59)
Absolutely a great point on “loss perspective.” I only trade with money I can afford to lose. If I lost all the money I trade with today, it would not in a single way change my lifestyle or deny any of the many pleasures in life I enjoy. In hindsight, I can see that was probably unhealthy for it, now that I've heard about many uninformed people overinvesting in a craze fashion. I was on the outside looking in. But had I been on the inside, I would have had the same thought with my “conditioned response” [in this case]. After an extremely rapid high point was reached, each day, I expect bitcoin to go “pop” and take major drops in rapid sequence. Not hat I am that smart, well I guess that I am since it was a “costly learned condition” for me. My problem during early times was never learning when to get out. I had been flying so high that I always chased the moon. Every day the constant increases were “oh boy” days for me. I then paid dearly for my lesson not learn. Although it took a long time I learned to use Stop Loss. I only started to use stop losses when I was into as many as 30 or more stocks and could not possibly monitor them all at the same time throughout the day. Before Stop Loss orders, I learned to pick a set point and some time in a run up and just get out. That point was usually a high of 30% when it reached it. After that, it did not matter to me if the stock made a 700% increase. For I had my 30% and in my past days of faulty trading methods, I usually wound up with a major loss caused by not knowing when to sell and get out. There is a tale often told during my early days in life spent on the farm. I will share it: “PRESERVE CAPITAL – GUARD AGAINST LOSS.” Those are the words posted in full view on the front of my keyboard. I see them each time I look down. Thank you for your well wishes trading wise. I do have some crypto trades running, and while they are, percent wise, very negative at the moment, yes at times more than 50%, I'm not "all in" and even if they went to zero, it would hurt but wouldn't kill me, and that's ignoring the fact that I've already locked in good money on cryptos, I don't use stops with cyptos, as my view of them is long term, and position size reflects that.
There was a man who had a mail order bride arrive at the stage stop. He was there to pick her up with his mule and wagon. He did not say a word to her. And they never spoke during the first part of the long trek to the homestead. After a while, the mule stumbled and the man said “that’s one.” Some time later, the mule again stumbled and the man said “that’s two.” A few more miles down the trail, the mule stumbled again and the man said “that’s three.” He then stopped the wagon and picked up a 2x4 from under the seat, got down and hauled off and smacked the mule between the eyes with the long piece of timber wood. The young lady who had also not spoken during the trip screamed at the man and began saying how terribly cruel she found him. The man got back in the wagon, looked directly into her eyes and said “that’s one.”
I had my “that’s three” in the years I lost. Then I learned. And I will never, ever, have a major loss again.
#64. To: A K A Stone (#63)
It was a good brain-shot for you to start this thread.
I really didn’t know what to expect the results to be at first and figured it might be a one-shot deal.
But now with the ideas, information and actions flowing as I see them on the exchange of posts....I find excellent procedures being shared for anyone who has an interest.
Great move, Stone. I’m a player and besides, it gives me something constructive to participate in....rather than trying to contend with Deckard’s shit spreading all day.
#65. To: Gatlin (#64)
Keep the posts coming. I'll catch up on this thread later. Have a great day.
#66. To: A K A Stone (#65)
For those of you who are following this thread and are interested, I will take you through my process this one time. only.
This is the first time in three days that I find a stock to fit my buy perimeters. If you remember from a previous post, I generally have over 250 to go through. For the last couple of days the selection has been at 16 and none of the 16 yesterday fit for me.
Note: You may need to refer to a previous post to understand how to follow what I am doing.
I get a 15-minute delayed feed from the markets, [I have no reason to pay money for live feed] I checked at 0746 [my tinme ] and off the 16 equities showing 100%...BINGO the first one was a hit. This ususally doesn’t happen and I can spend as long as a hour finding the right stock..
I am going to present the information the way I have it formatted for easy reference to me
You will need to keep the following format in mind. I will not have time to always repost it each time and I will only post the data.
On 02/07, I purchased 580 Shares of ERN – Stop Loss Price is $3.60 – Current Price / Purchase Price is $3.40=$3.40 – Amoun t of Purchase is $20,041.75 – Market Value is $20,041.75 – Reading from left top right [on the plus and minus signs] there was one day up, then two days down followed by two up days. The jump today was $2.94 and the jump for the past five days was $17.24. As you will recall, this was a “good” buy for me....so I am off and running....hard.
ERN-01/07-580 ///// 3.36 ///// 3.40=3.40 ///// 20,041.75=20,041.75 ///// ++--+ ///// +2.94 +17.24
#67. To: All (#66)
At 0830 the price is $3.70 – It’s up 5.88% percent for the day – The program shows if I had boughr the stock on opening at 0730 I wold have now made $116.00 – Since I did not, I have really made$46.25 – and the Market value is 2,088.00. That is calculated to be $61.66 per hour....a bit above minimum wage.
#68. To: All (#67)
I will do this again at differet times during the day on this stock.
Right now, I must get busy trying to ffnd the next stock to purchase.
It will take a couple days to get back up to the normal 30 I carry.
Later ... ...
#70. To: All (#68)
I have made 2 additional purchases. DECK fit again and I jumped in on it....along with GOOS.
I dropped my Stop Loss from 1% to 3% - now at 3.30
Remember “Protect Loss.” Since I don’t have near as many stocks as normal, I can take a larger percentage loss on 3 stocks than I could on 30. I forgot to mention in my intital posts that I do fluctuate on the percentage amoung for stock loss.
0932 ERN is up for the day to 8.82% - I am up $75.25.
I must now go look for 2 more stocks and then I feel like stopping there for the day....maybe, maybe not?
#71. To: Gatlin (#70)
Just curious do you ever invest in real estate?
#72. To: A K A Stone (#71) (Edited)
Never have...but I have a friend who does.
Raw land declared as farm land with extremely low taxes is the way he made loads of money over the years.
One of his purchases was a large tract between here and Tucson, he later discovered on an old map that it showed an airstrip on the property. He had been to the acreage a number of times to check the property and never saw an airstrip. He started digging around and a foot below the surface was a paved strip where the blowing dust had accumulated soil over the years. Checking history, he found out it was an auxiliary landing stirp for flight training out of Tucson.
I lost touch with him about ten years ago when he moved to Vegas. He join our four- wheeling excursions and follow our Range Rover on off-road treks in his all-wheel- drive Porsche. Wild! Four-wheeling in a Porsche....he obviously made loads of money, eh?
Lots of stories to tell you about him, maybe another time. He won many cross country races is vintage early 1900 vehicles that he restored and maintain himself at his mountainside home here.
Hope there are not to many mistakes here, I am on a table keying quickly while grabbing a quick snack in the dining room and then getting back to “work” ...
#73. To: All (#72)
I am stopping here. Things are turning South. I an looking DECK down $426.47...I may bail out.
ERN is still holding up at 8.82%.
I am now showing an overall loss $234.21 on the 3 stocks.
Damn that DECK....3 time loser and always sucker bait for me.
As Donald would tweet...SAD.
Oh, well, the day is not over.
What the Hell....I’ll still try to find 2 more stocks.
I have 4 more hours.
#78. To: Gatlin, A K A Stone (#73)
I am now showing an overall loss $234.21 on the 3 stocks.Damn that DECK....3 time loser and always sucker bait for me.
You are an emotional trader, tater, and operate without rules. You have lost money in a market that is on a downward plunge because you "think" emotionally; you think you can outwit the market.
In the midst of uncertainty, collect the data as an action plan to avoid further risk. Study the data. Use your little brain power, assuming you have any and cool the transactions until the market corrects itself.
#122. To: buckeroo, A K A Stone, ALL (#78) (Edited)
The end of this Series....with a Resolution and Summation of today’s market activity by me.
There was a mistake made today during my first buy transaction. It was a long detailed process to discover the reason for the mistake and I narrowed it down to one of two distinct possibilities. However, it doesn’t matter HOW the mistake was made...it matters thathe mistake WAS made and I must live with the numbers.
The Mistake –
I intended to purchase 5 stocks today at $20,000 allocated to each purchase (or as close as I possibly could....I always overshoot for the high side when trying to get as close to $20,000). I wound up making 4 purchases for $20,000, but my initial order for 5880 shares of ERN totaling $20,000 was executed as 580 shares for $2,000 (again, all dollar amounts are in round numbers at this point). I must now live with mistake discovered after the market closed and I will purchase an additional $18,000 worth of ERN tomorrow morning at market opening.
| Resolution for the activity today - Symbol – Buy / Close /// Day % Change /// Buy $ Amount - Close $ Amount – Day’s Gain/Loss from opening – My gain/loss with later buy in - Underlined GOOS – 37.76 / 38,12 /// +2.78% /// 20,013.40 - 20,203.60 /// +545.90 – +190.20 DECK – 96.03 / 95.69 /// +0.73% /// 20,082.17 - 19,807.83 /// +142.83 - -274.34 ERN – 3.40 / +7.35 /// 7.35% /// 2,041.75 - 2,117.00 /// +145.00 - +75.25 HAE – 68.17 / +5.02 /// +5.02% /// 20,030.29 - 20,500.62 /// +979.20 – +470.33 TPR – 30.20 / +2.20 /// +2.20% /// 20,035.79 – 19,989.90 /// +430.92 - -45.89 |
Verification is available for all these number at Barchart if requested. In fact, the links are in Post #9.
| Summation for the activity today - Had I purchased all of the 5 stocks immediately at opening, I would have made $2,243.85. Because I had to research and follow my plan, I bought in later in the morning and I made $418.55. Had the buy error on ERN not have happened, I would have made $719.55. |
I hope this series of informational posts on the inner workings for Swing Trading in the sotck market has been enlightening to those interested and I also hope it was what you were looking for, Stone....what you wanted me to do.
This ends all commentary showing the activity during my daily trading.
I repeat what I said in an earlier post: Swing Trading is nothing you learn to do overnight and nothing you can do part time...and you WILL pay a price for learning. Be prepared ...
Okay, Stone. That’s it....the whole ball game for me. We will keep the thread active as a Financial Thread for anyone interested to participate and give or take information.
Oh, I almost forgot to respond to the post from buckaroo, where he stated:
You are an emotional trader, tater, and operate without rules. You have lost money in a market that is on a downward plunge because you "think" emotionally; you think you can outwit the market.In the midst of uncertainty, collect the data as an action plan to avoid further risk. Study the data. Use your little brain power, assuming you have any and cool the transactions until the market corrects itself.
No, Bucky, I am in no way an emotional trader. I am a cool, calm, collected and methodical Swing Trader who definitely operates within a firmly defined set of rules....as explained and set forth in my Post #8 and Post #9 at the beginning of this thread. Which of course you obviously neglected to read. Furthermore: I never think “emotionally” and I never think I “can outwit the market.”
There was no “uncertainty.” I was certain that the market moved down for two days. I needed to collect no data because it is always instantly available 24/7/365 to me on barchart.com with a mere lick on the mouse. Oh, I did plan, for about 3 hurs last evening and again this morning when I began my calculated moves. And I did use very little of my brain power....very little is all I ever need to use.
Now, I did cool my transactions for 3 days and when according to my plan as outlined in the posts mentioned....I made my move as each stock under consideration showed an upward daily movement for 2 consecutive days and fulfilled the other perimeters of my buying plan as outlined in the posts above.
So, Bucky boy, I must say I had a fair day....making a late start on 5 stock picks and taking in $418.55 which could have been $719.55 had not it been for an unknown glitch. And the fact that the stocks I picked through careful consideration and diligent study showed a paper gain of $2,243.85 for the entire day proved to show I have a tad bit of :market moxy”....ya think?
BTW: Today’s activity was off of ONLY 5 stocks, Bucky. I normally maintain at least 20 stocks in my active portfolio and limit myself to no more than 30 at one time. I must admit that managing 30 stocks ar one time while Swing Trading is extremely taxing and I don’t normally go up to that amount unless indicators direct I do.
I certainly do appreciate you taking time to give me some much needed advice on how I should invest in the stock market, Bucky, and above all....I will try to remember:
I will not become emotional....I will not become emotional... DAMNIT, I will NOT become EMOTIONAL ...
#123. To: Gatlin (#122)
Thank you Gatlin.
Please don't leave the thread just yet. There is still, for me, a very important piece of what you do that I need to understand to get the complete picture. I understand that you select stocks based on certain pre-established criteria.
I do not understand how you gained both $418.55 and had paper gains of $2243.85 for the day on the same stocks. Were those paper gains $2243.85 on your entire portfolio, or were they just on those stocks that generated $418.55?
I am wondering how the $418.55 was a "real" gain, while the $2243.85 was a "paper gain". Did you sell those stocks and take the cash back out? Were those stocks heavy with dividend which paid after you bought them.
PLEASE understand that I am not challenging your numbers. I just don't understand what the two different kinds of gain mean. The only two ways I know of to make a gain on stock are through capital gain - when you sell it (and there is no lingering paper gain after that, because because don't own it anymore), dividends paid on a stock when the company pays them. Stocks can split and there can be leveraged buyouts, but for tax purposes those things ultimately all wash down to capital gain.
I'm just puzzled by the two types of gain you've discussed here. I don't know what they could be. Please explain.
The other piece of information that I need to know to be able to make my style of analysis is the actual mechanics of how you bought and sold (if you did sell) the stocks. Was this done at a fixed price per share, at a fixed transaction price, based on a spread? What was the transaction cost.
And where is the physical location of your property. Is it held by the broker-dealer from whom you purchased the stocks, in the B/D's street name at DTC? Is your broker-dealer your custodian, and what are your custodial fees? It does not seem possible that you could do short-swing trading if you take physical possession of shares book-registered in your name - that process is entirely too cumbersome to get in and out.
Finally, you need data feeds of some sort to get the information on which you base your analysis. Full-up Bloomberg terminals cost $15,000 per person per month for the data feed, so obviously you're not doing THAT, but what are you doing? Do you have a subscription service that is providing you the feed? Are you using free online resources?
As you saw with my discussion of growing spinach, I include the transaction costs in all of my analyses, because they are real and they determine the final dollars-in-pocket.
This probably reads like a challenge, because that is the way of LibertysFlame. I promise you that it is not. I am trying to understand the components of what you have said above. It is intriguing, but it's a sort of black box with some confusing output numbers (confusing to me), and with unknown costs. I need to iron out those kinks to really understand it.
Thanks.
#125. To: Vicomte13 (#123) (Edited)
I do not understand how you gained both $418.55 and had paper gains of $2243.85 for the day on the same stocks. Were those paper gains $2243.85 on your entire portfolio, or were they just on those stocks that generated $418.55?I obviously used a misnomer, I should not have used the term “paper gain.” I see the confusion I caused. I should have tried to find a different term.
Perhaps this will explain what I meant. The broker’s computer shows in one column the stocks daily gain/loss for the current day (continually updating throughout the day )in one column. In the next column, the computer shows your actual gain/loss updated (als continually updating). Those numbers were only for yesterday. So over a period of say five days, on the fifth day the daily gain fo those stocks may be $1,000....but my gain could show $3,000 (over the 5 day period). I always can see what the stocks are doing overall in any moment of time during the day....as well as I can see what my stocks are doing in that moment of time with a continuing computation.
To try to simplify. That $2,000 number is what the stocks did that particular day, and it is continually updated during the day ....the $400 number is what my stocks did since I purchased them and it is continually updaed thoughout the day. That’s probably a better way of explaining it...I hope.
#137. To: Gatlin (#125)
I obviously used a misnomer, I should not have used the term “paper gain.” I see the confusion I caused. I should have tried to find a different term. Perhaps this will explain what I meant. The broker’s computer shows in one column the stocks daily gain/loss for the current day (continually updating throughout the day )in one column. In the next column, the computer shows your actual gain/loss updated (als continually updating). Those numbers were only for yesterday. So over a period of say five days, on the fifth day the daily gain fo those stocks may be $1,000....but my gain could show $3,000 (over the 5 day period). I always can see what the stocks are doing overall in any moment of time during the day....as well as I can see what my stocks are doing in that moment of time with a continuing computation.To try to simplify. That $2,000 number is what the stocks did that particular day, and it is continually updated during the day ....the $400 number is what my stocks did since I purchased them and it is continually updaed thoughout the day. That’s probably a better way of explaining it...I hope.
I get it. Thanks. The way I would describe it is that as of close yesterday, you had a nominal (paper), unrealized gain of $418.55. You will have realized gains when you sell your securities. You may also earn dividend income if you hold the security on the dividend date.
That all makes sense.
Could you discuss the transaction costs - what it costs to buy and sell, and custodial fees? Also, could you discuss the fees for the data you use?
Thanks!
#140. To: Vicomte13 (#137)
It’s $5.95 per trade in the amounts I normally deal.
Higher number of stocks or higher dollar amounts = higher trade costs.
No custodial fees....no membership dues.
#150. To: Gatlin (#140)
By my calculations, based on the data you have given, and making the following assumptions:
(1) You sold and realized your gain (2) Transaction costs are 5.95 to buy, and 5.95 to sell. (3) You have no other source of income, so your taxable income is what is produced solely by investment. (4) A trading year of 251 days (days that the market is open). (5) You make comparable trades, with comparable profits, every day of the year, and close out of each position at the end of each day. (6) Yesterday, on your initial investment of $82,473.4, you had a net return after transaction costs (but before taxes) of $356.05, which is a .43171% one-day rate of return. (7) That you were able to do the same on each of the other 251 days in the trading year. (8) You are married, and you live in a state with an average income tax rate of 5%. (9) Your sole source of income is your return on investment. (10) 2018 tax laws are in effect.
Your pre-tax earnings on investment would be $89,368.55, on an initial investment of 82,473.40. This is a pre-tax rate of return on investment of 108.36%.
After taxes (all of which is short term capital gain), your return on investment was 75,436.89, which is a 91.467%
Other than the blind luck of the lottery, I know of no investment that produces anything close to those returns.
Of course, those numbers do not accurately reflect your actual rates of return, because the assumptions are not all true. For example: you still hold those securities, which means that those gains are notional, not real. You would need to sell and then reinvest your principal to be that successul.
I have not considered the effect of reinvesting all of your gains.
So, if you are able to consistently pick stocks with those assumptions and success rates on an ongoing basis, this would appear to be a very attractive investment strategy.
#151. To: Gatlin (#150)
The obvious corollary to the above would be to ask you point blank the profit data from your last year's trading activity, on a before tax and after tax basis.
I am dying to know that.
But I recognize that it is a direct personal question, and very aggressive, so I won't ask it.
I myself generally answer anything asked of me, even by aggressive people who obviously dislike me, because that's just the way I am - straightforward and fearless, and frighteningly open.
But that's not the American way at all. I like the Swedish model of company operations, whereby everybody salary, bonuses and benefits are public knowledge, and everybody's income tax returns are matters of public record.
However, this thread is not about a reveal of personal data, but about investment.
From what you have described, your strategy could be profitable indeed, provided you pick the right stocks and make many successful trades. When you sell is likewise key. I assume you pick based on certain factors after seeing certain market behaviors, and I assume your sell discipline is based on the same things.
I'm sure you're not making 91% returns, but I would imagine that with experience returns in the mid-teens are eminently possible.
Could you share your last year's pre-tax return percentage?
Thanks!
#152. To: Vicomte13 (#151)
I think you may be getting some wrong ideas from what I am posting any may be mentally formulating some plan for the future.
I am by no means a professional Swing Trader. If I had to label, I would call myself a hobbyist who does Swing Trading for the thill of the challenge and for entertainment.
There are professional Swing Traders like say Evan Medeiros. He is a full-time professional swing trader and the founder of TheTradeRisk.com .
I see where you are going with your questions on commission structure. That probably is the first door to unlock if you’re working towards being a professional Swing Trader. If you are actively paying $5.95 per transaction with a $1000 trading account....then the math is perfectly setup for failure. If you are a Professional Swing Trader looking to make lots of money, then use a trading organization like Robinhood and pay $0 commission...then you can be more successful with any size account.
I don’t compute my transaction fees, I pay no attention to no attention to them. If I pay $7,735 in transactions fees (which I did one year and it was the only year the accountant had to compute those for some reason) and I am content with making, say only $6,000 net....then I am a content “Hobbyist Swing Trader.” I thnk I just coined a new term
For what I am doing, and will continue to do, Barchart provides all the data, charts, projections and everything else I need to do. If I wanted to start doing Swing Trading for living and make a bunch of money, then I sould look into any number of Swing Trading software programs that are available on the Internet and test a few of their programs with a small amount of capital while I was paying $0 commission.
There are also a number of sources on the Internet where you can get free newsletters and others with paid membership to look into. I however have always been leary about these paid type sources and stayed away from them. I always figured if they were any good, they could hire a bunch of people to work directly for them and clean up on making money and forget about selling advice.
I have no specifics to share with you....but maybe this basket of rambling information will be of some benefit to you.
#153. To: Gatlin (#152) (Edited)
I think you may be getting some wrong ideas from what I am posting any may be mentally formulating some plan for the future.I am by no means a professional Swing Trader. If I had to label, I would call myself a hobbyist who does Swing Trading for the thill of the challenge and for entertainment.
There are professional Swing Traders like say Evan Medeiros. He is a full-time professional swing trader and the founder of TheTradeRisk.com .
I see where you are going with your questions on commission structure. That probably is the first door to unlock if you’re working towards being a professional Swing Trader. If you are actively paying $5.95 per transaction with a $1000 trading account....then the math is perfectly setup for failure. If you are a Professional Swing Trader looking to make lots of money, then use a trading organization like Robinhood and pay $0 commission...then you can be more successful with any size account.
I don’t compute my transaction fees, I pay no attention to no attention to them. If I pay $7,735 in transactions fees (which I did one year and it was the only year the accountant had to compute those for some reason) and I am content with making, say only $6,000 net....then I am a content “Hobbyist Swing Trader.” I thnk I just coined a new term
For what I am doing, and will continue to do, Barchart provides all the data, charts, projections and everything else I need to do. If I wanted to start doing Swing Trading for living and make a bunch of money, then I sould look into any number of Swing Trading software programs that are available on the Internet and test a few of their programs with a small amount of capital while I was paying $0 commission.
There are also a number of sources on the Internet where you can get free newsletters and others with paid membership to look into. I however have always been leary about these paid type sources and stayed away from them. I always figured if they were any good, they could hire a bunch of people to work directly for them and clean up on making money and forget about selling advice.
I have no specifics to share with you....but maybe this basket of rambling information will be of some benefit to you.
No, I am not looking to be a Swing Trader.
My own investment approach is this (and reflects all that I have written before):
I already am in the job that I expect to be terminal, so there's no "Upward mobility" for me in employment prospects. I can, by and large, track out the rough shape of my income and benefits from now until retirement, which will probably not be before age 67 in any case (to maximize Social Security).
My wife still has some upward mobility in her prospects (after many years off raising a child) by punching through the hurdles of being certified as a teacher in our state. So I expect some income increase on her part, in the $10k to $30k range over the years. I expect we will both retire about the same time.
I expect that Social Security and Medicare will both be in operation when we retire, because I believe that the United States would have had to have literally ended for those programs to have disappeared. I believe that Social Security and Medicare are so fundamentally vital to the structure of the US economy, and so necessary to 95% of the population, that it is politically impossible to strike down either of those programs. I believe that the US will print money, borrow money, engage in forced nationalization of retirement assets, cut non-essential services, sell resources, raise taxes - whatever is necessary - to maintain those two programs in place. I do not believe that it is politically possible to touch those programs, and that attempts to do so will be blocked by the judiciary until the next election cycle wipes out the party that attempts to do so.
I say this because Social Security and Medicare are part of my retirement plan. I hope to not need them, but I expect that I will, and that my other efforts will augment my income, but will not replace either program.
Currently, my wife and I are putting our purse into our daughter's head, and the results are good. She has a straight-A average, will be attending an Ivy League university, and is on track to make the US Olympic Team in 2020 or 2024. We plan to fully finance her education through law school, so there will be no student debt to burden her, and to provide the necessary downpayment for her primary residence when the time comes, so that she is able to gain the security of home ownership and the growth of equity in that primary expense, as opposed to spending years pissing money down the drain in rent.
At that point, barring unforeseen emergencies, she will be launched and independent and we will have done our job to position her in life as well as we can, as parents, certainly far ahead of where we started. I agree with Buffett one more time, when he said "Give your kids enough so they can do anything, but not so much that they can do nothing." I don't have enough to give her for her to be able to do nothing anyway, and I think we have prepared her to be able to literally do anything, and in particular to let her pursue the course she has chosen for herself, with as good a chance as anybody in the world of being the best in the world at her chosen field. No American has ever won Olympic gold in women's foil. I expect my daughter will be the first, and she herself is training and preparing to do exactly that.
So, that covers parental duties. When grandchildren come, I expect to be able to assist in their private education, if needed.
Turning, then, to my wife and myself, the greatest variable of future expense is health, and the greatest single factors influencing health that are under human control are nutrition, sleep and stress levels. Exercise ranks fourth in this regard, though it certainly helps. Eat, sleep, stress and exercise largely determine whether one will face lengthy periods of expensive health care that will exhaust one's final resources, or good health that will not. We all die of something, of course, but the conditions under which it happens are largely (though by no means completely) under our control.
Therefore, proper investment in good, healthy food is important. Food is not a place to economize. Luxurious food is not good for us when eaten often, but merely HEALTHY food - organic, skewed towards fresh seafood, prepared with high quality ingredients: to eat right essentially doubles the cost of nutrition above the standard American diet, and that doubling of cost means fewer resources to invest in the earlier years, and much lower medical expenses in the latter years, probably.
So that is the next investment, and it is a substantial one: the decision to CONSUME an extra $20,000 per year, between two people, to eat the healthiest foods on a continuous basis. To do so in the belief that this will prevent later cancers and heart and liver conditions that will entirely deplete an estate before death is a choice based on faith in my own understanding of the science of health and biology. Between now and age 70 is 15 years, so this is a $300,000 decision - to invest in health through food INSTEAD OF economizing on food and investing that same cash in money-producing investments.
Then we move to the next investment, which is in the proper repair and arrangement of our living space, and in particular beautifying our half-acre garden. This is a stress reducer - once against reducing the eventual cost of a health care, and a property value enhancer - improving the value of the property - it is an important improvement to quality of life. To fully landscape the property would probably cost $25,000 up from, and $5000 per year to maintain, and to upgrade the house (saving on future energy and repair costs) would probably cost $100,000. So, once again, over that 15 year period, another $200,000 will not be available to invest in securities to produce a cash flow.
Only now do we come to the point of investing excess income. Transaction costs and taxation of gains mark me. Like Buffett, my holding period - of houses, of wives, of securities - even of cars to the extent possible - is "forever".
I have determined that, given my tax bracket, federal and state, and given transaction costs, the benchmark investment for me is tax free municipal bonds, bought and held to maturity, with reinvestment of the interest. Bonds that yield 5% untaxable at the federal, state and local level are available.
My Connecticut tax bracket is 6.5%, and my federal tax bracket in 2018 is 35%.
Given the new tax law's elimination of the personal exemption and restriction of deductions on state income and property taxes, my effective tax rate is 41.5% on investment returns.
So, a safe 5% return on tax-free municipal bonds for someone in the 41.5% aggregate tax bracket, is the equivalent of a 7.05% taxable return. One can obtain that sort of return on junk bonds, which are not safe.
It appears as though your equity investing techniques may produce a greater return than that. I am interested in seeing the real return numbers you have had over time, pre-tax, so that I can apply tax rates and transaction costs to get an apples-to-apples comparison.
Assuming that I am able to invest $50,000 per year in my munis for the next 12 years, and $100,000 per year after that for the remaining 3 years until earliest practical retirement, my total invested principal of $900,000 should have grown, at 5% tax free, interest paid semiannually, with full reinvestment, by 5.0625% per year, with compounding, to 1,599,727.63 (to the penny).
Left alone, that corpus will generate $80,986.21 per year in tax-free income, which will be augmented by Social Security at very nearly the maximum rate for me of about $3538 per month ($42,456 per year), plus my wife's benefit of about half that ($21,228 per year), for a total family income of $144,670 per year of retirement income, secure and essentially guaranteed for life.
This will allow us to assist in the funding of our grandchildren's private school and college educations and allow us to continue to invest a portion to stay even with inflation.
I recognize that you are going about it a very different way, and that's fine.
From my perspective, the "number to beat" in investments is a very safe return of 7.05%, taxable, per year. An investment that can exceed that if equally safe, is better, an investment that is below that level is worse (there is nothing that is really safer than a general obligation bond of a state except for federal bonds, but they are taxable).
So, that's what I'm asking for. I'm offering a way to compare your approach, the real, after tax returns, to mine. From the numbers you've given, yours seems to produce better returns than mine. I would never do it the way you do: it requires too much reliance on my analytical abilities. I want to buy and hold and forget and reinvest the interest, and not pay taxes on it, and focus on family and health and enjoying my garden.
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