[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]
Status: Not Logged In; Sign In
International News Title: The Norm Is NOT Democracy -- the Norm Is Extinction [Iranian collapse] We might be observing the birth of Iranian democracy in the protests of the past few weeks, but it is more likely that we are watching the slow-motion train wreck of a once-great nation in all its gory detail. As I noted in an Asia Times analysis this morning, the most violent protests, e.g. the burning of a police station near Isfahan captured on this video, happened in the boondocks where water has run out. The river that runs through Isfahan, a legendary city of gardens in the desert, literally has run dry. Some Iranian officials warn that tens of millions of Iranians will have to leave their homes for lack of water. The country has used up 70% of its groundwater and its literally drying up major rivers to maintain consumption. It's the worst ecological disaster in modern history. The Islamic Revolution presided over an orgy of corruption, brutality, and mismanagement. Despite the Obama administration's cash infusion and the lifting of sanctions on oil exports, the government is nearly bankrupt. It has allowed several major banks to fail, wiping out the savings of millions of depositors, after the banks lent vast sums to regime cronies for real estate speculation. Forty-five percent of Iranian bank loans are toxic and the cost of cleaning up the bank mess is estimated at half of GDP (to put that in perspective, the U.S. Treasury set aside $700 billion, or 1/20th of U.S. GDP, to bail out the banks in 2008, and needed only a fraction of it. The Iranian banking crisis is a full order of magnitude worse than the U.S. 2008 crisis). Iran's pension funds, as I report in Asia Times, are bankrupt. The civil service pension fund has only 100 employees paying in for every 120 employees receiving a pension. The government is on the hook for the rest. Add up the costs of dealing with the water emergency, the bank crisis and the pension crisis, and Iran is close to broke. And that's just the beginning: The average working-age Iranian today comes from a family of seven children, but has fewer than two children. That means that when the older generation retires, there will be fewer than two new entrants into the workforce to pay for the pensions of seven retirees. The demographic crisis hasn't hit yet, and when it does, it will be the financial equivalent of an asteroid hitting Iran. In other words, Iran's exhaustion of physical as well as human capital may have pushed it past the point of no return. Iran has plenty of smart people, and two of the best engineering universities in the world, except virtually all the top graduates leave the country. There probably is a theoretical way out of Iran's economic spiral, but no collection of Shi'ite mullahs is going to find it. The most likely outcome is that Iran will undergo economic and social collapse. That, sadly, is the norm in human history. The democracy first practiced by the Greek city-state is exceptional, and classical Greece is Exhibit A for civilizational self-destruction. Of the nearly 150,000 languages once spoken on this planet, a couple of thousand are left, and 90% of those will fall silent forever during the next century or so. Sometimes the best thing you can do for dying civilizations is, don't be one of them, as I wrote in my 2011 book, How Civilizations Die. This makes the mullahs all the more dangerous, like a bank robber with a brain tumor who takes hostages. I sincerely wish a happy outcome for the people of Persia. But we need to be prepared for a very unhappy one. Poster Comment: The problem has to be global warming. And Trump. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest The country has used up 70% of its groundwater and its literally drying up major rivers to maintain consumption. It's the worst ecological disaster in modern history. I work with a guy from Iran and he made the point that the US does not need to destroy Iran, all we need to do is wait for the corrupt mullahs to do it. Lake Urmia has been shrinking like the Aral Sea, they've built a bridge across the lake and at the rate things are going the bridge will have been a waste of money crossing a salt flat. Also from what he's told me they are not wanting democracy too much. One of the chants goes something like "bless you, wake up." It refers to Reza Shah, whom they know well as a brutal dictator. From what I gather is that they want something like Egypt where Sisi overthrew an Islamist government. The other thing was that Iranian flyover country was tired of squandering money on foreign adventures, echoing the Trump electorate on the same issue here. Best thing we could do would be to declassify all the details of Operation Ajax, most of the money used to undermine Mossedegh was funneled through the mullahs. Their dirty laundry needs to be aired in public. Non auro, sed ferro, recuperando est patria #2. To: nativist nationalist (#1) I work with a guy from Iran and he made the point that the US does not need to destroy Iran, all we need to do is wait for the corrupt mullahs to do it. Lake Urmia has been shrinking like the Aral Sea, they've built a bridge across the lake and at the rate things are going the bridge will have been a waste of money crossing a salt flat. True. The mullahs are not as powerful or stupid as the Soviets so it takes a little longer. When you really want to destroy vast areas of the earth, communists are the quickest way to get the job done. Nice touch in recalling the Aral Sea, drained to support the most insanely wasteful scheme in history to use irrigation to make the USSR a cotton exporter. Tragic for the descendants of the local population, like the peoples of Karakalpakstan (northwest Uzbekistan).
Also from what he's told me they are not wanting democracy too much. One of the chants goes something like "bless you, wake up." It refers to Reza Shah, whom they know well as a brutal dictator. From what I gather is that they want something like Egypt where Sisi overthrew an Islamist government. We in the West always overestimate the desire for democracy in the Third World and these areas we once called 'oriental' in a derogatory manner. I'm not sure why. Democracy doesn't even work all that well in the West.
The other thing was that Iranian flyover country was tired of squandering money on foreign adventures, echoing the Trump electorate on the same issue here. Best thing we could do would be to declassify all the details of Operation Ajax, most of the money used to undermine Mossedegh was funneled through the mullahs. Their dirty laundry needs to be aired in public. I wouldn't mind that but any totalitarian cabal like the mullahs will quickly pivot to say that those corrupt mullahs are gone and now they breathe the pure fresh air of Islam. I tend to think that the Iranians could easily become more apocalyptic as their country turns into a lifeless desert. A demogogue with some oratory and administrative talent might easily convince them that it is their end time myth come to life and that the only way to save themselves is to use their nukes to wipe out the blasphemers in Saudi Arabia and the Jews in Israel.
#3. To: Tooconservative (#2) Have you ever use periscope? I've been using it lately to talk to people in the middle East. You know muslims. Some of them speak english and it is interesting getting their point of view. Some hate us but not all.
#4. To: A K A Stone (#3) Have you ever use periscope? I know of it but I don't use social control networks.
I've been using it lately to talk to people in the middle East. You know muslims. Some of them speak english and it is interesting getting their point of view. Some hate us but not all. How do you know you're not talking to intel operatives or scammers?
#5. To: Tooconservative (#4) How does anyone know that anywhere? Just small talk. You know bacon. Is Jesus God. Do you like trump, why do you make your women wear burquas. Why do you worship a pedophile? Some are polite and some hate you. They mostly drive around and broadcast from their cars. Especially in saudi arabia. They almost all smoke. Turkey always hates us. Saudi is split. United Arab Emirates is mostly for us. Kuwait mixed.
#6. To: Tooconservative (#4) How are they going to scam me?
#7. To: A K A Stone (#5) (Edited) Just small talk. You know bacon. Is Jesus God. Do you like trump, why do you make your women wear burquas. Why do you worship a pedophile? Some are polite and some hate you. They mostly drive around and broadcast from their cars. Especially in saudi arabia. They almost all smoke. Turkey always hates us. Saudi is split. United Arab Emirates is mostly for us. Kuwait mixed. I have to admit that the thought of you serving as LF's first international envoy to the peoples of the Middle East gives me hope for the future. I bet you have some epic exchanges with the ragheads. If you have some good ones, you should publish them here at LF. I assume you are just following video chats originating from these raghead countries and then making comments on their video streams.
#8. To: A K A Stone, Vicomte13, Tooconservative, sneakypete (#3) Some of them speak english and it is interesting getting their point of view. I think it would be more interesting to get a point of view of those who don't speak English. Like in Roman Palestine, were the fluent Latin speakers representative for the local population? Tax collectors, perhaps? Or are the fluent Arabic speakers in USA a good example of typical American mindset.? I would try to get an decent interpreter. And make some homework earlier.
#9. To: nativist nationalist, A K A Stone, A Pole (#1) Seen at AoS, not widely reported.
Wouldn't surprise me if he ends up dead but the mullahs may keep him on ice for a possible future "reform government" if the Persians get too unruly. Or he may make another bid for power. He is a habitual powerseeker, much like Tiesucker in Georgia/Ukraine.
#10. To: A Pole (#8) I would try to get an decent interpreter. And make some homework earlier. You would? Then do it. Good luck. I prefer to talk to someone who speaks my language. They all speak Arabic too in case you didn't u understand what I said.
#11. To: A Pole (#8) Or are the fluent Arabic speakers in USA a good example of typical American mindset.? They are more likely to be covert Muslim agents in place. In the entire history of the world,the only nations that had to build walls to keep their own citizens from leaving were those with leftist governments. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest |
|||
[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]
|