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Freepers Still Love war Parody ... Jump / Trump --- van Halen jump "The Democrat Meltdown Continues" "Yes, We Need Deportations Without Due Process" "Trump's Tariff Play Smart, Strategic, Working" "Leftists Make Desperate Attempt to Discredit Photo of Abrego Garcia's MS-13 Tattoos. 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Did the Israelites Really Cross the Red Sea? Stunning Evidence of the Location of Red Sea Crossing! Are we experiencing a Triumph of Orthodoxy? Judge Napolitano with Konstantin Malofeev (Moscow, Russia) "Trump Administration Cancels Most USAID Programs, Folds Others into State Department" Introducing Manus: The General AI Agent "Chinese Spies in Our Military? Straight to Jail" Any suggestion that the USA and NATO are "Helping" or have ever helped Ukraine needs to be shot down instantly "Real problem with the Palestinians: Nobody wants them" ACDC & The Rolling Stones - Rock Me Baby Magnus Carlsen gives a London System lesson! "The Democrats Are Suffering Through a Drought of Generational Talent" 7 Tactics Of The Enemy To Weaken Your Faith Strange And Biblical Events Are Happening Every year ... BusiesT casino gambling day -- in Las Vegas Trump’s DOGE Plan Is Legally Untouchable—Elon Musk Holds the Scalpel Palestinians: What do you think of the Trump plan for Gaza? What Happens Inside Gaza’s Secret Tunnels? | Unpacked Hamas Torture Bodycam Footage: "These Monsters Filmed it All" | IDF Warfighter Doron Keidar, Ep. 225 EXPOSED: The Dark Truth About the Hostages in Gaza New Task Force Ready To Expose Dark Secrets Egypt Amasses Forces on Israel’s Southern Border | World War 3 About to Start? "Trump wants to dismantle the Education Department. Here’s how it would work" test "Federal Workers Concerned That Returning To Office Will Interfere With Them Not Working" "Yes, the Democrats Have a Governing Problem – They Blame America First, Then Govern Accordingly" "Trump and His New Frenemies, Abroad and at Home" "The Left’s Sin Is of Omission and Lost Opportunity" "How Trump’s team will break down the woke bureaucracy" Pete Hegseth will be confirmed in a few minutes Status: Not Logged In; Sign In politics and politicians See other politics and politicians Articles Title: FiveThirtyEight gives Trump 1-in-3 chance Source: FiveThirtyEight URL Source: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus Published: Jul 13, 2016 Author: FiveThirtyEight Post Date: 2016-07-13 17:08:23 by ConservingFreedom Keywords: None Views: 3351 Comments: 22 Electoral votes Hillary Clinton 303.4 Donald Trump 234.4 Gary Johnson 0.2 Popular vote Hillary Clinton 48.1% Donald Trump 44.8% Gary Johnson 5.8% Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 14. #3. To: ConservingFreedom (#0) (Edited) "In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals. In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked. On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.” misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-13   17:45:17 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: misterwhite (#3) "In September, he (Nate Silver) told CNN’s Anderson Cooper that Trump had a roughly 5-percent chance of beating his GOP rivals. In November, he explained that Trump’s national following was about as negligible as the share of Americans who believe the Apollo moon landing was faked. On Twitter, he compared Trump to the band Nickelback, which he described as being “[d]isliked by most, super popular with a few.” And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" - fivethirtyeight.com/featu...rewed-up-on-donald-trump/ ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-13   17:52:27 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: ConservingFreedom (#5) "And on May 18 he wrote "How I Acted Like A Pundit And Screwed Up On Donald Trump" When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"? misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-13   20:39:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: misterwhite (#9) When will he write, "How I Made Lame Excuses For My Emotion-Based Prediction In A Pathetic Attempt To Salvage My Credibility"? In your book the following is a "lame excuse"? In mine it's a mea culpa. "we were basically acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new evidence. Without a model as a fortification, we found ourselves rambling around the countryside like all the other pundit-barbarians, randomly setting fire to things." ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14   12:23:07 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: ConservingFreedom (#11) Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different. Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse. misterwhite  posted on  2016-07-14   12:31:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 14. #15. To: misterwhite (#14) Had he said that at the time of his prediction, that would have been different. That makes less than no sense ... if he'd realized at the time of his prediction that he was playing a pundit rather than doing statistics, he wouldn't have made the prediction. Saying it now sounds like a lame excuse. You seem to be confusing "explanation" with "excuse." ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-07-14 12:45:34 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 14. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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