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Title: In Decisive California Primary, Ted Cruz Is in Control
Source:
Breitbart
URL Source: http://www.breitbart.com/california ... lifornia-primary-cruz-control/
Published: Apr 27, 2016
Author: Jon Fleischman
Post Date: 2016-04-27 18:44:03 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1713
Comments: 13
The question of whether business tycoon Donald Trump clinches the 1,237 pledged first-ballot delegate votes needed to win at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July will only be decided in delegate-rich California. The race for the Republican nomination was not decided Tuesday, with Trump’s sweep through the liberal northeastern states. Nor will the battle end with the GOP primaries throughout May in Indiana, Oregon (or as Trump pronounces it “Or-E-Gone”) or Washington State. When the polls close on June 7, only then will we know whether Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% will have stopped Trump, and set the stage for a convention showdown. California will ultimately be a Trump-Cruz contest. While Ohio Governor John Kasich will, no doubt, still be running, his anemic effort to show that the establishment still has a horse in the race will be irrelevant to those California GOP voters who do not want Trump. To them, it will be clear that Cruz is the only one really positioned to compete for delegates. California is a winner-take-all-by-district contest: 159 delegates will be awarded – three to the top-vote-getter in each of the state’s 53 Congressional Districts, with the ten statewide delegates and the voters of the three California RNC members going to the statewide plurality winner. To stop Trump, Cruz will likely need significantly less than half of California’s delegates, as Trump needs to win over 50% of the remaining 622 delegates, and the map ahead for the reality-TV celebrity isn’t as friendly as it was yesterday. Which takes us to the reality of the California political landscape, where statewide polling might be a decent indicator of how the 13 statewide delegate votes are likely to go, but the district-by-district showdown is a much different story. There are two major reasons why recent surveys showing the Trump has a lead in California don’t hold up under scrutiny. The first is that these polls are not broken down by district, but by region. In fact, the number of respondents to the surveys aren’t even a small sliver of the number that would be needed to predict voter opinions in 53 U.S. House seats. You would need hundreds of surveys completed in each seat. As an anecdotal example, the April Field poll, a very reputable public opinion survey released periodically, had only 588 interviews with likely GOP voters statewide — barely ten per district, on average. The second reason to distrust the polls is that California has a huge number of ultra-liberal House districts where mere thousands of Republican voters in each will be deciding three delegate votes. You could not accurately survey this small number of GOP voters even if you wanted to – other than perhaps going out and interviewing each resident of the district. In the Golden State, the factors that will truly matter will be smart voter contact and grassroots organization. In both of these areas, the Cruz campaign is well positioned relative to Trump. The former has been significantly invested in smart campaigning, targeting resources, and running a tight, smart campaign using the latest advances in voter identification. Cruz has been using voter contact tools ranging from social media targeting to geofencing. On the district level, these kinds of tactical considerations matter. And as for grassroots organization, the Cruz campaign has built an impressive armada all around the state, with an organizational structure and grassroots leaders in literally all 53 House districts. Two anecdotes demonstrate the Cruz campaign’s organizational heft. One is the speed with which the campaign pulled together its delegate statewide slate – no small feat, since it includes delegates and alternates in every single congressional seat. And not just warm bodies – but conservatives committed to Cruz, and willing to travel to Ohio on their own dime! The other anecdote is Cruz’s last visit to Southern California, just a couple of weeks ago. Two rallies, one in Orange County and one San Diego County, were announced at 9 p.m., and by 8 a.m. the following morning both had sold out, with thousands of attendees. Yet these rallies had only been advertised internally, to identified supporters and local party activists. By contrast, Trump has had no organization to speak of in California, only hiring a staff person a couple of weeks ago. He is still trying to fill out a delegate slate, and seems to hope he can finesse California with a 30,000-foot campaign. (And of course there really is no Kasich campaign here at all, unless you count an endorsement from Arnold Schwarzenegger.) Look for Donald Trump to continue to call himself the “presumptive nominee” of the party as he seeks to try to steamroll through the rest of the primary calendar. But if he’s actually going to reach the magic number of delegates, he needs to organize in California – fast. His problem is that Cruz has been at it here for over a year. 
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#2. To: cranky (#0)
Meanwhile, the billiionaires who are in fact the owners of the Republican Party, have taken a look at the outcomes and decided that Trump has won. Now their influence comes into play. "Unpledged delegates" will start to drift towards Trump. While before Cruz was frenetically doing this and that to get some, the billiionaires have the ability to cause a "rethink". And they are. It's going on behind the scenes. Trump didn't get 14 delegates in Pennsylvania. He got all 75. In state after state, the unpledged will follow the money that supports their local party chapters. And that means they will drift to Trump, by ones and twos and tens. Sorry, Ted. it's not going to happen for you. People back the strong horse. Billionaires are people, and they have interests to protect. Trump will protect them. Cruz can't, because giving him the nomination in a floor fight after Trump has dominated the primaries would mean Hillary, and that doesn't protect the billionaires' interests at all.
Yes, Trump will protect the crony capitalist gang in which he is a member. And so will Hillary. In a Trump v. Hillary election the billionaires have both dogs in that fight. Either you truly are ignorant about Trump or you are just another shill for Hillary.
#4. To: SOSO (#3)
Neither. Billionaires are bending the knee to Trump, not the reverse. He's not bought, he's not paid for. He's not going to do what they want. He's going to do what he said. Some of that will hurt billionaires in their wallets in the short term and the medium term. Long term, America will be stronger. The billionaires would rather not, which is why they've been working so hard to beat Trump. But it finally happened: a populist revolution simply, peacefully and democratically, through back the plutocracy onto its heels. They could not hold the party, so now they are coming to terms. Trump is not going to be nearly as bad for most billionaires as Hillary. He's not going to be GOOD for them by any means. Their taxes will go up, free trade with China is going to be disrupted. They're going to lose their cheap exploitable illegal labor. But Hillary offers much worse. They're submitting to Trump. As far as "another shill for Hillary", it's funny the way you conservatives are incapable of facing the truth head on. If I were for Hillary Clinton, I would say so, and I wouldn't be ashamed to say it either. I say I'm a "statist" all the time because I am. I'm not a modern Democrat because I don't believe that babies are disposable. I'm not a conservative Republican because I don't believe in favorable tax regimes for the rich. I believe in equally taxing everybody's wealth. It's the only fair system of taxation.
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#3. To: Vicomte13, cranky, All (#2)
Billionaires are people, and they have interests to protect. Trump will protect them. Cruz can't, because giving him the nomination in a floor fight after Trump has dominated the primaries would mean Hillary, and that doesn't protect the billionaires' interests at all.
Replies to Comment # 3. Either you truly are ignorant about Trump or you are just another shill for Hillary.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 3.
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