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Title: Poll: 66% of Trump supporters say they’d vote for the GOP nominee if Trump is denied at the convention
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/ ... p-is-denied-at-the-convention/
Published: Apr 9, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-04-09 21:07:13 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1516
Comments: 17
Reuters headlines its story about this poll, “Exclusive: Blocking Trump could hurt Republicans in election.” Which is accurate, although it’s just as accurate that nominating Trump could hurt Republicans by alienating #NeverTrumpers (as well as many, many, many swing voters). All of that is old news, though. Republicans have understood for months that some small but important chunk of the party is walking away after the convention no matter who the nominee is. The real takeaway here is just how many Trumpers say they’re willing to stick with the party this fall even if Trump gets shafted in Cleveland. I never would have guessed it’s as high as 66 percent. In fact, I would have guessed at this point that half or more of Trump’s fans would boycott the general election even if Cruz beat him fair and square in the remaining primaries to get to 1,237 delegates before the convention. It’s Trump or bust for his famously loyal fans, and if the bust involves, ahem, “theft” at the convention, then it’s war — supposedly. If you believe Reuters, that’s all wrong. The most devoted third of Trump’s supporters will walk but the others are ready, however grudgingly, to line up for Cruz and beat Hillary. That’s not a poll of Republicans generally, it’s a poll of Republicans who support Trump. And still, 66 percent are prepared to vote for a non-Trump nominee. Granted, that number doesn’t include pro-Trump independents, who’ve been showing up for him in open primaries all spring. Many of those voters will be goners in November, as any Trump fan will eagerly tell you. The question, though, in weighing Cruz’s electability against Trump’s isn’t limited to how many new voters Trump’s unorthodox coalition might bring to the party. It’s also a question of how many current Republican voters would be alienated by either of them. Cruz will turn out Republican Party regulars, which means he’ll likely start with most of Romney’s 2012 base intact. Trump will, in theory, turn out plenty of GOP irregulars, but the thing about irregulars is that they’re unpredictable. You don’t know how many you can count on, and in the meantime many regulars whom you normally do count on will head for the hills. Adding five million votes from people who didn’t back Romney in 2012 doesn’t help if it costs you seven million votes from people who did. (Unless the first group is based mostly in swing states while the second second group is based mostly in safe states, which is statistically unlikely.) Jonathan Last runs through some math: In order to beat Hillary Clinton, Trump has to outdo the Romney 2012 numbers. But even if he does better among white voters—and right now it looks like he’ll do worse—it does no good if he can’t stay at Romney’s level among other groups. And Trump is poised to do much worse than Romney with just about everyone else. He’s already viewed unfavorably in national polls among non-college-educated whites and white men, who are supposed to favor Trump so heavily that they’ll turn out in record numbers to help him overcome his deficit with various other groups. And Last makes another good point: Although Trump’s numbers did improve dramatically among Republicans soon after he entered the race last summer, they haven’t improved much since then. He hit 30 percent in a national poll for the first time at the end of last August, less than three months after he announced his candidacy. Seven months later, he’s only managed to add 10 points or so to that number in most primaries while watching his numbers sink among the rest of the electorate. “That shows you how hard it is,” writes Last, “for a candidate to convert marginal voters who aren’t naturally part of their coalition.” How does Trump get from the mid-30s among Republicans, where he’s been spinning his wheels for months, to the low 50s with the general electorate in the span of about four months when everyone already knows who he is and has a strong opinion — typically very unfavorable — about him? That’s not the only fantasy math happening in Trumpworld either. Data journalists tracking the delegate fight are laughing at this quote: “After Wyoming, [Cruz] is done,” Manafort said. “We’re going to have our act together. We’re going to start putting numbers on the board and that will become infectious.” There’s just no way Trump will be in a position to clinch by mid-May, says Nate Silver, even if he sweeps everything between now and then. Breitbart, the most prominent pro-Trump site on the Internet, guesstimated a few days ago that he’ll still be 50-100 delegates short even after the final primary in California in June 7th. Thanks to the rout engineered by Team Cruz for Colorado’s delegates at the state convention, Trump now needs to win 60 percent of the delegates the rest of the way to clinch before the convention at a moment when the non-Trump vote in the primaries is consolidating behind Cruz. What Manafort’s doing with this comment, I assume, is signaling that he’s going to try to not only woo the unbound delegates that are still out there but to peel away many that have already committed to Cruz, which would bump up Trump’s total behind the scenes. That’s mighty ambitious, though, given just how much disorganization among state volunteers and campaign staff he’s going to need to sort out. (Yikes.) He’s been brought in, basically, to conduct an orchestra, except that half the orchestra’s missing and the other half doesn’t know how to play their instruments. What’s that going to sound like? In lieu of an exit question, here’s your thought for the day. As the man himself would say: Sad! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 9, 2016 Poster Comment: The first real Trump-voters-only polling I've seen. 
But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he’s in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He’s minus-53 with self-described moderates; minus-62 with voters age 18 to 34; minus-71 with Hispanics. “Our target date is June 7, but our goal is in the middle of May to be the presumptive nominee,” Paul Manafort, Trump’s newly installed convention manager who has been given broad authority to shape the campaign going forward, said in a wide-ranging interview here… Isn't it a shame that the person who will have by far the most delegates and many millions more votes than anyone else, me, still must fight
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
Wishful thinking. Since Trump would run third party. He could run a write in campaign and possibly win. Or he could run on Pat Bucanana's buddies thingy. Yes I said thingy because I don't know all the details.
Hot air. lol.
And that percentage-needed has been rising for the past several primaries. A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.
Not going to happen if ted "hamburglar" cruz gets the nomination. I'll just sit home
Or write in Trump and vote against all establishment Republicans. I can hardly wait to vote against Portman. Almost as much as I want to vote for Trump.
He could run a write in campaign and possibly win. Trump won't spend money to run a much easier Republican campaign. No way he spends the amount needed for a spite campaign when state sore-loser laws in a majority of states forbids him appearing on the ballot except as the GOP nominee. And no one ever wins the presidency on a write-in vote. That's just a fantasy. Most states won't even count such a vote because of their sore-loser laws. Besides, I'm told that bucky's dead dog Scruffy has the write-in vote locked up.
Good.
Also called HotGas when you disagree with their writers. Their comments section is pretty wild. Not a tame readership or easy on the staff writers either. Plenty of Trump people posting over there.
I heard to many of your "no ways". They were all WRONG!
So says Cruz's munchkin.
There has never been a Trump running. You don't win Write in campaigns in Alaska either. Until you do and win. You munchkins are amusing.
It doesn't make a difference to establishment TC if it's Hillary, Bush or Cruz. They're all the same NWO crowd.
Cruz is locking down Colorado tonight as his eighth state by Rule 40 standards. Denver Post has an article but the results aren't final (or I'd post them). It's interesting because it has all the usual state party infighting. Cruz got 17 bound delegates and 4 unbound from the CDs, only needs 2 more to be declared the winner (of a majority of bound delegates). AP had a graph, showing Trump 743 and Cruz with 559 (after counting 21 CO delegates for him but before he wins some of the remaining delegates). Trump had 743 before WI so apparently WI hasn't officially certified its delegates yet. That means it's more like Trump 749-755, Cruz ~590-600.
So Stone. What do you think is up with that. Think Beck & Levine are thinking that if Cruz gets the nomination, he will need all those Trump Supporters? Maybe they finally realized they may have pissed in their Cheerios. Maybe their listeners base is starting to shrink.
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
I think that is old clips.
bump A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
#3. To: TooConservative (#0)
Trump now needs to win 60 percent of the delegates the rest of the way to clinch before the convention
#4. To: TooConservative (#0)
#5. To: calcon (#4)
(Edited)
I'll just sit home
#6. To: A K A Stone, buckeroo (#1)
Wishful thinking. Since Trump would run third party.
#7. To: calcon (#4)
Not going to happen if ted "hamburglar" cruz gets the nomination. I'll just sit home
#8. To: A K A Stone (#2)
Hot air. lol.
#9. To: TooConservative (#6)
No way he spends
#10. To: TooConservative (#6)
That's just a fantasy
#11. To: TooConservative (#6)
And no one ever wins the presidency on a write-in vote.
#12. To: TooConservativem calcon (#7)
Not going to happen if ted "hamburglar" cruz gets the nomination. I'll just sit home Good.
#13. To: ConservingFreedom (#3)
#14. To: ConservingFreedom (#3)
#15. To: A K A Stone (#14)
(Edited)
#16. To: Stoner (#15)
#17. To: TooConservative (#0)
The most devoted third of Trump’s supporters will walk but the others are ready, however grudgingly, to line up for Cruz and beat Hillary.
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