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politics and politicians Title: [Arguments for Trump's Electability Are] Weak and Getting Weaker Yet the electability argument against Trump is hardening, fast. He has a 67 percent unfavorable rating (per the Washington Post/ABC News poll), which would be the highest ever recorded for a major-party nominee, and a net favorable rating of minus-39 among white women and minus-31 among independents. Trump's numbers aren't just bad; they're the stuff of nightmares. When you add up all of the data, there are four reasons to suspect Trump's chances in the general election are incredibly slim. But the Trump-wins-by-turning-out-white-Republicans theory breaks down fatally when you look at where Trump is with every other group. In order to claw his way into the poor position he's in with white voters, Trump has cheesed off every other demographic group: He's minus-53 with self-described moderates; minus-62 with voters age 18 to 34; minus-71 with Hispanics. In order to beat Hillary Clinton, Trump has to outdo the Romney 2012 numbers. But even if he does better among white voters—and right now it looks like he'll do worse—it does no good if he can't stay at Romney's level among other groups. And Trump is poised to do much worse than Romney with just about everyone else. How is Trump going to challenge in those places when he has to defend spots like Utah and Mississippi, which are supposed to be gimmes for a Republican? Numbers don't move overnight. It took Trump two months to go from 5 percent in Republican polls to 30 percent. It took him seven months just to build another 10 percent of support among Republicans—the group most inclined to be open-minded about him. That shows you how hard it is for a candidate to convert marginal voters who aren't naturally part of their coalition. And in the process of finding those 10 additional points of support, Trump alienated a great number of other voters. So even if it were theoretically possible for Trump to build a coalition to beat Clinton, everyone now knows who Trump is, everyone has an opinion about him—and he only has 30 weeks to pry people away from his would-be opponent. If Trump is the nominee he is either going to win it on the final day of the primaries or at a contested convention. Either way, it will be by one of the slimmest margins in history and it will signal that Trump failed to revolutionize the Republican party. Destroy the party? That's a real possibility. Take it over? Certainly. But in order to transform a party, a candidate has to offer a new program and build support among a growing number of the party's voters while also bringing the party's elites and organizational forces into the fold. Trump tried to do this initially. He has failed utterly. Once Trump began winking about violence at the Republican convention, and his on-again, off-again capo Roger Stone started talking about helping Trump supporters visit convention delegates at their hotel rooms to "discuss" matters with them, it was clear Trump no longer had any interest in transforming the party. He wants the Republican nomination, and he is perfectly happy to brutalize the party to get it. There will be no consensus building. Only submission and capitulation. That's his prerogative, of course. Trump owes the GOP just as much as the GOP owes him—which is to say: exactly nothing. But as an electoral matter, this change is important. Because all of the scenarios for Trump's success in November were predicated on his being capable of uniting the Republican party. And not only does he not seem capable of this task—he does not even seem interested in it. So clear that soon enough, even Trump's supporters may have to confront them. Poster Comment: This piece will appear in the Standard's print edition in 9 days. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Trump can't get the nomination! Well ... if he gets the nomination he can't beat Hillary. Well ... if he wins he can't govern. Well ... he'll never get a second term. And on it goes. Blah, blah, blah.
#2. To: misterwhite, sneakypete, tomder55, SOSO (#1) Trump can't get the nomination! If his numbers are still so disastrous and he has 1236 delegates or less, he will never be the nominee. Period. The party faithful (which is who the delegates are) would take Cruz on the second ballot even if they think he will lose. Because Cruz will at least have some chance and Trump would damage the party and its reputation for a generation. Trump has made himself utterly toxic to the general electorate, to the indy voters, to women. This is why he cancelled his other campaign events and has to stay home to try to secure his home state. Like you, Trump believes he can offend people as often as he wants and there is no price to be paid. But there is. I increasingly agree with sneakypete that Trump is a Xlinton operative, just like Perot was. Trump even echoes all the old Reform Party positions (which is no surprise because Trump flirted with becoming the Reform Party nominee in 2000 and 2004).
#3. To: TooConservative (#0) Let's say you get your wish. Trump is cheated from the nomination, so you end up with Cruz, who got far fewer votes than Trump. Cruz is electable because...? With Trump, there's a transformative effect. With Cruz, there's nothing but a sleaxy bitter-ender. So, the party re-asserts itself and you get Cruz...and President Clinton and a Democrat Senate. Either way you look at it, you lose. I'd hate to be in your shoes.
#4. To: Vicomte13 (#3) Trump is cheated from the nomination, so you end up with Cruz, who got far fewer votes than Trump. Cruz is electable because...? ...because he isn't hated by 70% of the electorate. As nominee, he is steadily around 8%-10% less toxic to voters than Trump is.
So, the party re-asserts itself and you get Cruz...and President Clinton and a Democrat Senate. Then you'll be happy. You're already on record as vowing to support Xlinton if you can't vote for Trump. Your only candidates are Trump, then Xlinton. So how much credibility do you have with me as a conservative (or even as a pro-lifer)? Zero.
#5. To: TooConservative (#2) "If his numbers are still so disastrous and he has 1236 delegates or less, he will never be the nominee. Period." Then there is no need to post this article, is there?
#6. To: Vicomte13 (#3) Let's say you get your wish. Trump is cheated from the nomination, so you end up with Cruz, who got far fewer votes than Trump. Cruz is electable because...? Are you claiming we should vote for someone only if they are electable? Bubbette! is electable,and since you have already said you will vote for her if not Trump,does that mean you want us all to vote for YOUR "conservative candidate",Bubbette! Clinton? What ever happened to voting for a candidate because that was the one you wanted to see in office? BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO! ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION! Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them. #7. To: TooConservative (#0) Trump abandoned his quasi-nationalist populism When and how did that happen? A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. #8. To: ConservingFreedom (#7) Trump abandoned his quasi-nationalist populism Well, "quasi-" is a pretty loose prefix to slap on anything. The author intends you to read this as Trump isn't as explicitly nationalist as he was before and that he is now primarily relying on populism and the cult of personality and his reality-show popularity.
#9. To: TooConservative (#8) Trump isn't as explicitly nationalist as he was before I wouldn't call that an "abandonment." (But then, I've been told I'm a contrarian.) A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them. #10. To: ConservingFreedom (#9) Well, I'm not going to duel at dawn with anyone over the real meaning of a quasi- or two.
#11. To: misterwhite (#1) TC said the same about Reagan back in the day. The GOP cannot win without Trump supporters, and the GOP/Trump resistors have made things so toxic that there's no way Trump supporters would ever get behind anyone short of Reagan.
#12. To: TooConservative, misterwhite, sneakypete, tomder55 (#2) I increasingly agree with sneakypete that Trump is a Xlinton operative, just like Perot was. Trump even echoes all the old Reform Party positions (which is no surprise because Trump flirted with becoming the Reform Party nominee in 2000 and 2004). I think that you may have heard that first here. In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November. The only question is if the DRats will grab the Senate as well. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь #13. To: Logsplitter (#11) (Edited) TC said the same about Reagan back in the day. Did not. Didn't pay attention to politics or vote back then. Maybe you'd instead like to review the rotten stuff that Trump used to say about Reagan back then. It's all on the public record.
#14. To: SOSO (#12) In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November. Nah. A major terrorist attack by ISIS could change everything. Or a Russian invasion of Ukraine's eastern provinces. Or Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. History does sometimes happen in the middle of a long U.S. election season. Carter certainly was hurt by Iran and the hostages. And Hitlery is very unpopular. Deep down, everyone knows she's a big nothing and only has power because of who she married. She's Immelda Marcos in a Chairman Mao pantsuit. So never say never.
#15. To: SOSO, TooConservative, misterwhite, tomder55 (#12) I think that you may have heard that first here. I started posting that the day he said he was running,and IIRC,this was the first place I posted it. In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November. Which is why he will be getting a pay off from the Bubba's. The Ego Boost may be more important to him than the money,but the Clinton's only care about the end results. The Clinton's are getting what they need out of this,and Trump is getting what he needs. Neither gives a damn about the country or another else not a "Mini-Me". BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO! ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION! Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them. #16. To: TooConservative (#14) And Hitlery is very unpopular. Deep down, everyone knows she's a big nothing and only has power because of who she married. Which is why they are paying Trump to play his role. BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO! ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION! Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them. #17. To: SOSO (#12) "In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November." Oh? What makes you say that?
#18. To: TooConservative (#14) Nah. A major terrorist attack by ISIS could change everything. Or a Russian invasion of Ukraine's eastern provinces. Or Chinese provocations in the South China Sea. There certainly is that possibility. I would add a scenario of the Emperor Obama declaring Marshal Law and suspending the election, especially if there is a major ISIS attack(s) in the U.S., e.g. - a dirty bomb. In that case we still are all f*cked but just in a different position. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь #19. To: misterwhite (#17) "In any event, Trump has already killed the REP's party chances in November." Several undeniable reasons: First - the REP Party is horribly fractured, probably irrevocably fractured. Trump may not be the sole cause for this but he sure brought it to a head. The REP voters will not unify around Trump or Cruz or any nominee. There will be way more than sufficient numbers of REP voters staying home in November to assure a DRat WH victory with a strong possibility of DRat control of the Senate as well. Second - Whether Trump is the nominee or not he has firmly established the negativity of the REP brand and this will stick through November and beyond. Third - There is more than enough ammo for the MSM to continue to sink REP chances in November and the MSM will use every bit of it, if not more. Fourth - There is no-one currently on or off the REP bench that could overcome items 1-3 above in the general election. I don't think even Christ could do it, without the intervention of His father that is. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь #20. To: sneakypete (#15) I think that you may have heard that first here. OK, you win. I'll take second prize - which would be only 4 years of Hillary. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь #21. To: sneakypete (#16) Which is why they are paying Trump to play his role. Lying moron.
#22. To: SOSO (#19) Second - Whether Trump is the nominee or not he has firmly established the negativity of the REP brand and this will stick through November and beyond. Only if you are a liberal piece of shit would you have that view.
#23. To: A K A Stone (#21) Which is why they are paying Trump to play his role. Class act,stone. I have to be lying,I can't just be wrong,right? And you wonder why people make fun of you. What are you going to do when he drops out,claim he is lying and still really running? BOYCOTT PAYPAL AND CLOSE YOUR PP ACCOUNTS NOW! ENCOURAGE OTHERS TO DO SO,TOO! ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION! Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them. #24. To: sneakypete (#23) Class act,stone. It is a lie when you make it up with no evidence except your imagination. But you are right. I am a class act. Thank You.
#25. To: Vicomte13 (#3) Cruz is electable because...
...he's not a partner with Cohn, Stone, and Epstein. www.google.com/? gws_rd=ssl#q=Cohn+Stone+Trump+Epstein
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