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Title: Climate-change models wrong on predicting rain, drought extremes: study
Source: Washington Times
URL Source: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news ... -wrong-predicting-rain-drough/
Published: Apr 8, 2016
Author: Valerie Richardson
Post Date: 2016-04-08 09:48:52 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2423
Comments: 12

A newly released international study debunks climate models on global warming that forecast extreme rainfall and drought tied to temperature swings, casting doubt on disaster scenarios promoted by the climate-change movement.

The study in the journal Nature published Thursday examining Northern Hemisphere rainfall data going back 1,200 years found that today’s climate models were frequently wrong on predicting extreme rain and drought.

In the 20th century, for example, higher-than-average temperatures failed to produce wet-dry extremes, which contradicts the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s consensus that global warming will make dry areas drier and wet areas wetter.

The scientists also found periods of extreme variability in centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution and the rise of greenhouse-gas emissions in the atmosphere. For example, the study found severe drought in the 12th century, which was warmer than average, as well as the 15th century, which was colder.

“It might be more difficult than often assumed to project into the future,” the study’s lead author, Fredrik Ljungqvist of Stockholm University, told AFP, adding, “The truth can be much, much more complicated.”

Anthony Watts, who runs the climate-science website Watt’s Up With That, posted the results under the headline, “Ooops! Another big failure of the climate models — rainfall did not increase.”

He pointed out that Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers reached the same conclusion in a study released in December, finding that climate models “overestimate the increase in global precipitation due to climate change,” in part because they fail to take into account the increased absorption of sunlight by water vapor.

The Nature study, “Northern Hemisphere hydroclimate variability over the past twelve centuries,” saw scientists from Sweden, Germany and Switzerland create a rainfall history of Europe, North America and North Asia.

In a comment published by Nature, Matthew Kirby of California State University Fullerton’s Department of Geological Sciences agreed that the study “certainly adds fuel to the fiery debate,” but challenged the idea that the results render current climate models obsolete.

“Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists,” said Mr. Kirby, according to AFP.

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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)

For example, the study found severe drought in the 12th century, which was warmer than average, as well as the 15th century, which was colder.

Climate models must hide the decline or any other inconvenient facts .

During the warmest periods , wine grapes grew in England and Viking farmed in Greenland .

During the coldest periods they had 'Frost Fares " on the frozen Thames .

People walked from Staten Island to Manhattan;and across the Long Island Sound .

Generally people fared better when the climate was warmer .

"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-08   10:06:51 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: tomder55 (#1)

People walked from Staten Island to Manhattan;and across the Long Island Sound .

I had never seen that connection before. And they had a Frost Fare on the Thames the same year. Interesting.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   12:00:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: TooConservative (#2)

You will never find these periods on the hockey stick chart . All one has to do is follow the fluctuations of climate before the end of the 19th century (before SUVs ) to predict when civilization thrived ,and when there was famine ,plague ,and civilization collapse .

1500 years ago the "Late Antique Little Ice Age" took down the Eastern Roman Empire and brought us the rise of the Califate .

"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato

tomder55  posted on  2016-04-08   12:20:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: TooConservative, All (#0)

“Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists,” said Mr. Kirby, according to AFP.

Read "damn, we have to find a better way of fudging the data".

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-08   14:02:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: SOSO (#4)

Read "damn, we have to find a better way of fudging the data".

More like, "Hey, start writing those grants so we can all cash in!".

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-08   14:15:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: SOSO (#4)

“Do their results invalidate current predictive models? Certainly not. But they do highlight a big challenge for climate modellers, and present major research opportunities both for modellers and climate scientists,”

If the models are still valid, what are the "challenges" and "opportunities"?

A government strong enough to impose your standards is strong enough to ban them.

ConservingFreedom  posted on  2016-04-08   14:20:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: ConservingFreedom (#6)

If the models are still valid, what are the "challenges" and "opportunities"?

The models never have been valid. The all, without exception, predict significantly higher temperatures than actually observed for decades.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-08   14:39:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: TooConservative (#0) (Edited)

“Do their results invalidate current predictive models?

DUH!

When will we allow these dills to stop gaming with important statistics and causing panic and uncertainty? It is very obvious in "climate science", and I use the term advisedly, that we do not know what we do not know. Therefore we need much research and very little prognostication, which is the reverse of what the UN Panel on Climate Change has been doing, and why, because this suits their agenda of introducing OWG.

Every time someone does some serious research the modules are undone and the predictions are found to be incorrect. These false prophets must not be allowed to exist, we must do with them what was done with the prophets of baal

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-09   8:20:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: paraclete (#8)

Every time someone does some serious research the modules are undone and the predictions are found to be incorrect.

It reminds me of how the Marxists used to make some minor adjustment to their economic theories each time their previous theories were discredited. Then they would say, "Ah, we have now perfected our theory so all that proof that they were nonsense is now irrelevant". They did this over and over.

This is the problem with unfalsifiability. If your opponents are too dishonest to recant and abandon their position no matter how much proof is assembled that they are wrong (or even just committing fraud to make money), it defeats the purpose of science and rationality entirely.

As long as the climate alarmists have the tycoons and the big governments behind them -- using them as a "crisis" to grab more and more control over the private sector and energy use -- I don't see a lot of hope for proving them wrong. They'll just tinker more with the data or try to change the laws to make anyone denying their wacko "climate science" illegal.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-09   8:45:15 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: TooConservative (#9) (Edited)

It reminds me of how the Marxists used to make some minor adjustment to their economic theories

yes we need to five year plan to devise a five year plan to find out if climate change is really happening and another five year plan to document climate change so we can have a five year plan to respond to climate change by measuring what nations are doing to implement their plans

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-11   2:29:30 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: paraclete (#10)

we need to five year plan to devise a five year plan to find out if climate change is really happening and another five year plan to document climate change so we can have a five year plan to

Hey, full employment for all climate science types. And EPA employees.

Tooconservative  posted on  2016-04-11   2:36:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: TooConservative (#11)

yeh been there done that so what's next

paraclete  posted on  2016-04-11   17:47:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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