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politics and politicians Title: Sabato: Trump Shifts Six Senate Races Toward Democrats Sabato's updated forecast bodes particularly ill for Sens. Rob Portman and Pat Toomey, Republicans who are defending their turf in major purple states. Because there is a strong correlation between the success of a presidential candidate and Senate hopefuls of the same party, Sabato argues that the GOP could endanger itself if it nominates a general election candidate unpalatable to the general public. "Considering the rise of Donald Trump, the polarization in U.S. politics, and a higher rate of straight-ticket voting, this could be bad news for the GOP," Sabato writes. "Assuming the GOP nominee for the White House is either Trump or Ted Cruz, we think the Democrats will fare reasonably well down-ballot (more so with Trump than Cruz, though Cruz will also have a difficult time carrying many swing states)." Portman and Toomey's seats are now rated as "toss-ups", a move from "leans Republican". Sens. Roy Blunt and Richard Burr are now just slight favorites. And even Sen. Chuck Grassley, an Iowa institution and chairman of the committee that oversees judicial nominations, is no longer a sure bet to win a seventh term, though his shift from "safe" to "likely" reelection was made "mostly out of an abundance of caution", Sabato writes. Grassley has won more than 60 percent of the vote in his five reelection campaigns. The only seat currently held by Democrats that was reevaluated belongs to Coloradan Michael Bennet. That race moves from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic". Republicans currently hold the Senate with 54 seats. However, of the 34 Senate races being contested in 2016, Republicans are playing defense in 24 of them. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest " Republicans currently hold the Senate with 54 seats. However, of the 34 Senate races being contested in 2016, Republicans are playing defense in 24 of them. " If the Republicans are having problems, it is their own fault. They have been too busy kissing Obungholes rear end, and the base is not happy. And, to put the icing on the cake, all the machinations of the GOPe out to destroy Trump & Cruz, is not playing well with the base. They ARE the party of stupid !!! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur #2. To: Stoner (#1) You may as well say, "Welcome, Senate Majority Leader Schumer". And Obama would get his last Supreme Court pick as the Senate concludes its post-election session to forestall an even worse appointment from Hitlery.
#3. To: TooConservative (#0) and that is what I expect will be the result of Trump being the party standard- bearer . Not sure about Cruz coat tails ;but I'm willing to bet he has a better chance than Trump. In fact ,I don't think Trump cares if he has coat tails. He figures he can work as well,or better , with a Dem majority . Republicans have to defend 24 of 34 Senate seats,and can only lose 4 seats to maintain their control of the Senate . There are 5 toss-up races. Only 1 (Nevada) is currently held by a Dem. "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato #4. To: TooConservative (#2) Welcome, Senate Majority Leader Schumer I am so sick of the Schmuckster . I support Wendy Long ;but she is trailing by about 40 points to Chucky . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato #5. To: TooConservative (#2) " You may as well say, "Welcome, Senate Majority Leader Schumer". " I might have to accept the reality. But to say "welcome" to that asswipe? NEVER! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur #6. To: TooConservative (#2) You may as well say, "Welcome, Senate Majority Leader Schumer". The never Trump people establishment prick polishers such =as yourself will reap what you have sown.
#7. To: A K A Stone (#6) (Edited) The never Trump people establishment prick polishers such =as yourself will reap what you have sown. Because of the state I live in, I'll be inconsequential. You're the one in danger of crapping your own bed. But you want Portman gone and it looks like Trump will help you get that job done. Too bad it will ruin your attempt to "send a message" to the GOPe 'cause everyone will just blame Trump for Portman's and Toomey's defeats. But you can still help turn Purple Ohio into Deep Blue Ohio. And then you can just stop voting altogether since it won't matter who you vote for. And it will be you yourself and Trump that you can assign the credit to. Then you can be like another big Trump fanboi, Vicomte, who lives in a hopelessly Blue state and bitches about Republicans constantly.
#8. To: TooConservative (#0) "Sabato argues that the GOP could endanger itself if it nominates a general election candidate unpalatable to the general public." That didn't seem to bother the GOP when they gave us Dole, McCain, and Romney.
#9. To: misterwhite (#8) (Edited) That didn't seem to bother the GOP when they gave us Dole, McCain, and Romney. So you're voting for Trump to get even for Bob Dole? You think that's gonna work? You're just an idiot.
#10. To: TooConservative (#9) "So you're voting for Trump to get even for Bob Dole?" That's what you took away from my post? Reading comprehension not your strong point, asshole?
#11. To: TooConservative (#0) "Portman and Toomey's seats are now rated as "toss-ups" Because of Trump? Bullshit.
#12. To: misterwhite (#11) Because of Trump? Bullshit. Sabato does have a much longer track record of polling and prognistication than almost anyone still in the field, other than a big operator like Gallup. All the other old large polling companies are gone or moved on to Facebook polling for marketing, not politics. So Sabato may look thin to you but he is one of the last independent pollsters with any real track record.
#13. To: misterwhite (#8) " general election candidate unpalatable to the general public." Ouch !! That had to hurt! LOL Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur #14. To: misterwhite (#11) It's already started. No matter what, the GOPe and all of their sycophants are going to blame anything / everything bad on all those that do not fall in line, on our knees, that do not do / vote as they say we should. After all, they are god's, they know everything, they are perfect, and there is no way that they could have done anything wrong. /Sarc. But, I'm sure you knew all that already. LOL. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur #15. To: TooConservative (#0) Republicans currently hold the Senate with 54 seats. However, of the 34 Senate races being contested in 2016, Republicans are playing defense in 24 of them. The REP Party is toast. DRats will control all three branches of the Fed government. We are f*cked. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь #16. To: SOSO (#15) The REP Party is toast. DRats will control all three branches of the Fed government. We are f*cked. Always the Pollyanna.
#17. To: All (#16) Other polls do have at least a somewhat different picture than the gloomy forecast from Sabato. HotAir: Hmmm: Q-poll of PA shows a rosy picture for Toomey, gloomy for Dems So is Q-Poll way off or is Sabato? Who knows. HA also points out that Kasich is polling decently in Pennsylvania but he neglected to file papers for even a single delegate in PA. So he can win it outright but he still won't get his own delegates. I'd expect something this boneheaded from Trump but not from Kasich. It seems that even Kasich never thought he'd get this far in the race. This isn't the first sign of it.
#18. To: tomder55 (#3) Then the gop had better get with the fucking program, hadn't they? Trump is not to blame for their woes. This shit's been festering for years. Why do you think A+bert was always pissed off?
#19. To: Logsplitter (#18) Why do you think A+bert was always pissed off? Why in the world would you cite that old crackpot? Geez, Louise.
#20. To: Logsplitter, TooConservative (#18) Why do you think A+bert was always pissed off? I'm relatively new here . Who is A+bert ? The only hope for the GOP is the conservative base /insugency . Yes I know the beltway insiders have sabotaged it every chance they have gotten. I understand the impatients but if you look at the big picture the conservative movement has made it's mark at the state level ,and has made inroads in Congress. The infiltration is not a completed deal yet . I can't think of any worse setback to that cause than Trump being the standard bearer . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato #21. To: tomder55 (#20) A+Bert was an old crackpot contrarian that hung out at TOS for years. He was one of the early bannees there. He might have reminded you a bit of Boris here as most of his posts were insane.
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