Mexican Invasion
See other Mexican Invasion Articles
Title: Ted Cruz, Not Paul Ryan, Would Probably Win A Contested Convention
Source:
FiveThirtyEight
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... ly-win-a-contested-convention/
Published: Apr 6, 2016
Author: NATE SILVER
Post Date: 2016-04-06 16:08:23 by ConservingFreedom
Keywords: None
Views: 594
Comments: 3
It’s like something out of an Aaron Sorkin script. After their bitterly divisive primary, the Republican delegates come together to nominate John Kasich on the fourth ballot at a contested convention in Cleveland, despite his having won only his home state of Ohio. Or they choose House Speaker Paul Ryan, despite his not having run in the primaries at all. Balloons descend from the ceiling, celestial choirs sing and everything is right again with the Republican Party, which goes on to beat Hillary Clinton in a landslide in November.
As I said, it’s like something out of a TV show. In other words: probably fiction. It’s not that hard to imagine a contested convention. In fact, with Donald Trump’s path to 1,237 delegates looking tenuous, especially after his loss in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, it’s a real possibility. And it’s not hard to see how Republicans might think of Kasich or Ryan as good nominees. If Republicans were starting from scratch, both might be pretty good picks, especially from the perspective of the party “establishment” in Washington.
But Republicans won’t be starting from scratch, and the “establishment” won’t pick the party’s nominee. The 2,472 delegates in Cleveland will. And most of them will be chosen at state or local party conventions a long way from Washington. Few will be household names, having quietly attended party gatherings in Fargo, North Dakota, or Cheyenne, Wyoming, for years with little remuneration or recognition. Although the proverbial Acela-riding insiders might dream of Ryan or Kasich, there are indications that the rank- and-file delegates are into Ted Cruz — and they’re the ones who will have votes in Cleveland.
To recap a bit, the Republican presidential voting process is separate from the delegate selection process in most states. In South Carolina, for instance, most delegates are selected through a series of county, congressional district and state conventions. Although those delegates are bound to Trump (who won the state’s primary on Feb. 20) on the first ballot, they could peel off and vote for another candidate after that.1
There are some states where delegates are selected directly on the ballot (as in Maryland, for instance) and others where slates are submitted by the candidates (as in New Hampshire) — these are a fairly small minority. Below, you’ll find a table showing the Republicans’ delegate selection method in all states and territories, according to the Republican Party’s rulebook.
| TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE | NOT TIED TO PRES. PREF. VOTE | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STATE OR TERRITORY | BY CANDIDATES | ON PRIMARY BALLOT | AT STATE OR LOCAL CONVENTIONS | BY STATE OR LOCAL PARTY COMMITTEES | RNC MEMBERS |
| Alabama | 47 | 3 | |||
| Alaska | 25 | 3 | |||
| American Samoa | 6 | 3 | |||
| Arizona | 55 | 3 | |||
| Arkansas | 12 | 25 | 3 | ||
| California | 169 | 3 | |||
| Colorado | 34 | 3 | |||
| Connecticut | 25 | 3 | |||
| Delaware | 13 | 3 | |||
| D.C. | 16 | 3 | |||
| Florida | 81 | 15 | 3 | ||
| Georgia | 73 | 3 | |||
| Guam | 6 | 3 | |||
| Hawaii | 16 | 3 | |||
| Idaho | 29 | 3 | |||
| Illinois | 54 | 12 | 3 | ||
| Indiana | 54 | 3 | |||
| Iowa | 27 | 3 | |||
| Kansas | 37 | 3 | |||
| Kentucky | 43 | 3 | |||
| Louisiana | 43 | 3 | |||
| Maine | 20 | 3 | |||
| Maryland | 24 | 11 | 3 | ||
| Massachusetts | 27 | 12 | 3 | ||
| Michigan | 56 | 3 | |||
| Minnesota | 35 | 3 | |||
| Mississippi | 37 | 3 | |||
| Missouri | 49 | 3 | |||
| Montana | 24 | 3 | |||
| Nebraska | 33 | 3 | |||
| Nevada | 27 | 3 | |||
| New Hampshire | 20 | 3 | |||
| New Jersey | 48 | 3 | |||
| New Mexico | 21 | 3 | |||
| New York | 92 | 3 | |||
| North Carolina | 69 | 3 | |||
| North Dakota | 25 | 3 | |||
| No. Mariana Isl. | 6 | 3 | |||
| Ohio | 63 | 3 | |||
| Oklahoma | 40 | 3 | |||
| Oregon | 25 | 3 | |||
| Pennsylvania | 54* | 14 | 3 | ||
| Puerto Rico | 20 | 3 | |||
| Rhode Island | 16 | 3 | |||
| South Carolina | 47 | 3 | |||
| South Dakota | 26 | 3 | |||
| Tennessee | 41 | 14 | 3 | ||
| Texas | 152 | 3 | |||
| Utah | 37 | 3 | |||
| Vermont | 13 | 3 | |||
| Virgin Islands | 6 | 3 | |||
| Virginia | 46 | 3 | |||
| Washington | 41 | 3 | |||
| West Virginia | 31 | 3 | |||
| Wisconsin | 24 | 15 | 3 | ||
| Wyoming | 26 | 3 | |||
| Total | 259 | 398 | 1,358 | 289 | 168 |
| Share of total | 10% | 16% | 55% | 12% | 7% |
* 54 Pennsylvania delegates are directly elected but unbound to any candidate.
SOURCE: Republican National Committee Presidential Process Planning Book
Without getting too lost in the details,2 there are five major delegate selection methods:
- Candidates choose their delegates (10 percent of delegates). In some states, candidates name a slate of delegates. These states include California, making it even more important to the Republicans’ delegate math; delegates won in California are likely to remain loyal to their candidates longer than in most places.
- Directly elected (16 percent of delegates). Other delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen directly on the primary ballot. Usually, the ballot indicates which candidate the delegate prefers, and the delegates are bound to that candidate. An important exception is Pennsylvania, where 54 delegates will be elected on the ballot as uncommitted.
In these first two cases, there’s a strong link between the presidential preference vote and delegate selection. The link isn’t perfect — weird things can happen when voters are asked to choose from among a number of delegates they’ve never heard of — but it’s pretty close. However, these two groups combined will represent only 26 percent of all delegates in Cleveland (or 24 percent if Pennsylvania’s uncommitted delegates aren’t included in the tally).
The other delegate selection methods are as follows:
- Selected at state or local conventions (55 percent of delegates). The majority of delegates, as I mentioned, are chosen through a series of state and local conventions or caucuses. This is grass-roots democracy at work, with somewhere between dozens and thousands of Republican activists attending these events.
- Selected by state or local party committees (12 percent of delegates). In a few other cases, however, party insiders are responsible for appointing some delegates. The state executive committee names 14 at-large delegates in Tennessee, for instance, a point of contention because these delegates are thought not to be favorable to Trump even though he won the state.
- Republican National Committee members (7 percent of delegates). Finally, the 168 members of the RNC — three in each state — are automatically chosen as delegates. This used to be an important group because these delegates were uncommitted even on the first ballot in many states, making them equivalent to the Democrats’ “superdelegates.” But this year, Republican rules usually bind them to the statewide winner on the first ballot. Like other delegates, they may be free to choose whom they want later on.
We know that Cruz is likely to do well among delegates chosen through state and local conventions because we’ve seen that demonstrated quite a few times already. This is most obvious in the three states — Colorado, Wyoming and North Dakota — where there was no presidential preference vote. Cruz won nine of the 12 delegates chosen at county conventions in Wyoming (Trump won one), and Cruz has gotten six of six picked so far at congressional district conventions in Colorado (more Colorado congressional districts will choose their delegates this week). In North Dakota, delegates are technically unbound, but Cruz got a highly favorable slate of delegates approved at the state convention on Sunday; only one or two delegates of the 25 chosen appear favorably disposed to Trump.
Cruz has also gotten good results at state and local conventions in states that do hold a presidential preference vote. In fact, considering that relatively few states have completed their convention process, it’s remarkable how many examples you can find of Cruz cleaning Trump’s clock: for example, in Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina and South Dakota. It’s possible that Trump will improve his delegate-selection efforts in subsequent states, and with his chance of winning the GOP nomination down to 49 percent at prediction markets, he’s become a tempting buy-low opportunity. But in terms of delegate selection, Trump has nowhere to go but up, making it more essential for him to win 1,237 delegates by California or come very close to it.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#1. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
Whoever cares for the Republican Party had better hope to God that Cruz is not the nominee, because if he is, it's over for you.
#2. To: ConservingFreedom (#0)
Trump supporters will not accept any convention math or any convention rules that will nominate a candidate other than Trump if Trump comes into the convention with the lion's share of candidates. Period.
#3. To: ConservingFreedom, Rafael Teduardo Cruz, tripple natural born (#0)
Canadian, Cuban, and American. Throw a dart at a map of north america, and the odds are that Teddy is a "natural born citizen" there.
If you don't have a clue what Natural Born Citizen means. If he's a natural born citizen of the US because of his American mother, he's also a natural born citizen of Cuba because of his Cuban father?
He can run for el presidente of Cuba too!
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron PaulTop • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]