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The Establishments war on Donald Trump Title: In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich by nolu chan I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results 736 Trump has 806 remaining delegates 463 Cruz has 1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates 1237 needed 32 What Cruz can lose 33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible - - - - -
2016 Election The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump. Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th. After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell. The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York:
53.3% -- Trump Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich. In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4. Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap.
#4. To: Vicomte13 (#1) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever. Also look for a major purge here and a new direction.
Replies to Comment # 4. Also look for a major purge here and a new direction. Care to elaborate?
#6. To: A K A Stone (#4) Assuming he gets the most votes. He needs a majority not a plurality. Do you recall Bush v Gore? Gore received the majority of votes yet lost the election because of the rules. The RNC has rules. So how do you define cheating Trump out of the nomination if he doesn't get the majority of the delegate votes? IMO cheating him or anyone else would be changing the rules to specifically beat them. The RNC is not the Electoral College where rules can be changed ad hoc. Though it is worth noting that the Electoral College can act in a manner to cheat someone out of the election. "There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires EC Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States. Some States do require that their Electors cast their votes according to the popular vote. These pledges fall into two categories—Electors bound by State law and those bound by pledges to political parties. Some State laws provide that so-called "faithless Electors"; may be subject to fines or may be disqualified for casting an invalid vote and be replaced by a substitute elector. The Supreme Court has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution. No Elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged. Today, it is rare for Electors to disregard the popular vote by casting their electoral vote for someone other than their party’s candidate. Electors generally hold a leadership position in their party or were chosen to recognize years of loyal service to the party. Throughout our history as a nation, more than 99 percent of Electors have voted as pledged."
#7. To: A K A Stone (#4) If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever. I was there when the Bushites pulled the "McCain has a black daughter" robo-call in South Carolina in 2000. But I gritted my teeth and voted for Bush. He turned out to be a turkey, and so did McCain, but I happily voted for Sarah Palin in 2008. Come 2012, though, Romney was an outrage. I KNEW I was being lied to and screwed. But I ground my teeth down to nubs and stood there for a long time at the ballot - would I REALLY blacked the oval for that man? I did. And regretted it by the end of the evening because he lost anyway. So, my compromise of my own character and my vote against my moral sense did nothing but sully me. The toad I voted for didn't win. This year, I was staying home. But then came Trump. I AGREE with Trump on so many things. I'm happy and enthusiastic to vote for him. Now I'm watching the Republicans be everything I loathed under Bush and Romney, doing it all AGAIN. This time, I don't think they're going to get away with it. I think Trump will win the nomination and then go on to beat Hillary like a drum. I don't think the wall will get FULLY built in the end, because I don't think it will have to be. Once there's a guy in there who is serious and STARTS to build it, and to enforce, and to sanction, I think that all of a sudden there will be a reasonable cooperation by Mexico and others. Unable to stop it, they will be ready to make changes. But if they don't. the wall gets fully built. I don't see Trump backing down on anything. I do see him changing course if the effects of what he does improve a situation such that an optimal result can be achieved more swiftly and cheaply. I could go on about my hopes - and let some posters here take shots at me for being a "fan-boi" and all that. So I'll cut it short. I'm not a Republican, but I'll vote for the Republican named Trump, and if he moves things where he says he is going to, and the Republicans don't attack him and fight him every step of the way, I'll give credit where credit is due and give Republicans a chance. But if they keep trying to screw him, and worse, if they succeed, they can all go fuck themselves and die in a hole for all I care.
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