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BusiesT casino gambling day -- in Las Vegas Status: Not Logged In; Sign In The Establishments war on Donald Trump See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles Title: In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich Source: [None] URL Source: [None] Published: Apr 5, 2016 Author: nolui chan Post Date: 2016-04-05 16:21:25 by nolu chan Keywords: None Views: 8099 Comments: 51 In two weeks, Cruz will be a zombie candidate like Kasich by nolu chan April 5, 2016 I have used linked data from the NYT and 538. Using other sources may vary the data somewhat over who has how many delegates and how many are left. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html 2016 Delegate Count and Primary Results By WILSON ANDREWS, KITTY BENNETT and ALICIA PARLAPIANO New York Times UPDATED APRIL 5, 2016 736 Trump has 806 remaining delegates 463 Cruz has 1269 Cruz -- if he takes all remaining available delegates 1237 needed 32 What Cruz can lose 33 What Trump/Kasich combined need to make a Cruz majority impossible - - - - - http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-donald-trump-clinch-the-republican-nomination-before-the-convention/ 2016 Election 6:30 AM Mar 21, 2016 Will Trump Clinch The GOP Nomination Before The Convention? We don’t know, but our survey of delegate experts suggests it’ll be close. By Harry Enten and Nate Silver In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people: Adam Geller: founder and CEO of National Research Inc. and the lead pollster for Chris Christie’s presidential campaign Daniel Nichanian: contributing editor to Daily Kos Elections and PhD candidate in political science at the University of Chicago. Henry Olsen: senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center Margie Omero: managing director at Purple Insights Patrick Ruffini: co-founder and partner at Echelon Insights and chairman and founder of Engage David Wasserman: House editor at the Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight contributor The "expert" panel for 538 (not a Donald Trump fan club) estimates 71 (of 95) New York delegates for Trump. Unless one can find a way to plausibly claim that Trump/Kasich combined will take less than 33 delegates, the Cruz campaign claim to a clear path to a majority will become a mathematical impossibility after April 19th. After that, Trump will be running against not one, but two zombie candidates seeking votes for the sole purpose of locking the convention so that the GOP establishment can select the candidate for the voting public. That will be a very difficult sell. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ny/new_york_republican_presidential_primary-4222.html The Real Clear Politics Poll of Polls indicates the following average for New York: 53.3% -- Trump 21.3% -- Kasich 19.0% -- Cruz +32.0 -- Trump Estimating only 71 for Trump is being generous to Kasich/Cruz. Cruz is likely to be obliterated in the northeastern states. In two weeks, after New York, Cruz will be just another zombie candidate like Kasich. In two weeks, if one believes Cruz, Cruz should drop out for the same precise reason that Cruz now claims Kasich should drop out. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 11. #1. To: nolu chan (#0) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-05   17:29:19 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #4. To: Vicomte13 (#1) Today is Cruz' last hurrah. Imagine how much better off we would be if the Republicans were coalescing now around Trump and hammering away at Hillary now that she's at her most vulnerable. But NOOOOOOOOOOOO. Instead the Republicans have to pull their usual crap. If they screw Trump out of the nomination. Assuming he gets the most votes. I will never vote for any Republicans forever. Also look for a major purge here and a new direction. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   19:18:54 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #6. To: A K A Stone (#4) Assuming he gets the most votes. He needs a majority not a plurality. Do you recall Bush v Gore? Gore received the majority of votes yet lost the election because of the rules. The RNC has rules. So how do you define cheating Trump out of the nomination if he doesn't get the majority of the delegate votes? IMO cheating him or anyone else would be changing the rules to specifically beat them. The RNC is not the Electoral College where rules can be changed ad hoc. Though it is worth noting that the Electoral College can act in a manner to cheat someone out of the election. "There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires EC Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States. Some States do require that their Electors cast their votes according to the popular vote. These pledges fall into two categories—Electors bound by State law and those bound by pledges to political parties. Some State laws provide that so-called "faithless Electors"; may be subject to fines or may be disqualified for casting an invalid vote and be replaced by a substitute elector. The Supreme Court has not specifically ruled on the question of whether pledges and penalties for failure to vote as pledged may be enforced under the Constitution. No Elector has ever been prosecuted for failing to vote as pledged. Today, it is rare for Electors to disregard the popular vote by casting their electoral vote for someone other than their party’s candidate. Electors generally hold a leadership position in their party or were chosen to recognize years of loyal service to the party. Throughout our history as a nation, more than 99 percent of Electors have voted as pledged." SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   19:44:05 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: SOSO (#6) He needs a majority not a plurality. You're full of shit. If he gets the most and the screw him. Watch as millions abandon the Republican party of shit heads. I'll even vote for some democrats to hasten their extinction. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05   20:53:13 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: A K A Stone (#8) He needs a majority not a plurality. You're full of shit. Were do you get your information? Do you just make it up? The RNC rules presently require that a candidate must get the majority vote of the delegates at the convention to get the nomination. How in the world do you come to dispute this? SOSO  posted on  2016-04-05   20:56:03 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 11. #14. To: SOSO (#11) Were do you get your information? Do you just make it up? The RNC rules presently require that a candidate must get the majority vote of the delegates at the convention to get the nomination. How in the world do you come to dispute this? I don't give a shit what their undemocratic rules are. If Trump gets the most votes and he doesn't get the nomination. They can all go suck some aids and die. A K A Stone  posted on  2016-04-05 20:58:12 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 11. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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