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Title: Oh my: Trump 42, Cruz 32, Kasich 23 in new ARG poll of Wisconsin
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/04/ ... -in-new-arg-poll-of-wisconsin/
Published: Apr 5, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-04-05 09:21:51 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 3926
Comments: 27
We owe Trump fans some cause for hope tomorrow night. I think he’ll do better than the worst polls of Wisconsin, which currently have him down 10 points, are predicting, but, er, not this much better. Even Roger Stone thinks he’s going to lose the state, for cripes sake. This seems … sort of vaguely plausible, if unlikely? I guess? No other pollster has had Trump above 37 percent in Wisconsin, but okay. The next table, though, seems less likely. If Trump’s going to surprise in Wisconsin, you’d expect to see a big surge of independents taking advantage of Wisconsin’s open primary. That’s not what ARG sees: Trump cleans up with party regulars while Cruz holds him to a five-point lead among indies and Democrats? Highly unlikely. And for what it’s worth, it wouldn’t be unusual for ARG to miss big on a major primary during this campaign. They’ve gotten some more or less right, getting within 3.5 points of predicting Trump’s blowout win in New Hampshire and two points of his final margin in South Carolina, but they’ve had some major whiffs. Their final poll of Texas had Cruz winning by a single point. The actual margin on election day: Cruz by 17. They were the only pollsters this year to find someone besides Trump winning Michigan; they had Kasich by two just 72 hours before the vote. Trump won the state by nearly 12 points. Harry Enten, whose FiveThirtyEight site gives ARG a C- in pollster ratings, also notes that ARG somehow had Kasich a point ahead of Cruz in its final poll of South Carolina — a state where Cruz had invested considerable resources and enjoyed a natural base of southern evangelicals. Cruz more than doubled Kasich’s take in the primary, 18.5 to nine. I’m going to inch out on a limb and predict that they’ll have the order of Cruz and Trump wrong in Wisconsin too. One more bit from ARG. This may help explain why the result here is off: The lean towards Cruz there among women is probably higher than we’ll see tomorrow night but not necessarily. Multiple pollsters have showed Cruz winning big with that group in Wisconsin and one of them, Fox Business, found the same 19-point margin that ARG did. No one but no one, though, sees Cruz getting crushed by the gigantic 34-point spread among men that Trump enjoys here. To the extent that Trump leads Cruz among men in other polls, it’s only narrowly whereas Cruz leads among women decisively, which explains his overall margin. If you’re a Trump fan searching for spin and/or cause for optimism tomorrow, you’re better off skipping the ARG poll and focusing instead on the fact that Trump is poised to utterly crush Cruz in New York on April 19th. Losing badly tomorrow night is a major setback in the quest to clinch before the convention unless Trump can orchestrate a major blowout of Ted “New York values” Cruz in NY two weeks from now. Unless he underperforms in both, he’s still got a shot at 1,237. If he does underperform in both, though, hoo boy. 
Poster Comment:
Last-minute polling, showing how widely these polls have swung this year, how few have any track record, and how often they are so completely hit-or-miss that they're kinda worthless as polls.
No way to know whether this has any accuracy at all until tonight. Meaning that there's no point to it as polls go. (3 images)
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 8.
I was asked what Scripture came to mind when I heard the name Rafael Ted Cruz.
Psalm 109 6 ¶ Set thou a wicked man over him: and let Satan stand at his right hand.
7 When he shall be judged, let him be condemned: and let his prayer become sin.
8 Let his days be few; and let another take his office.
9 Let his children be fatherless, and his wife a widow.
Christ is in charge, if He wants the USA destroyed, He will make Cruz, Hillary or Bernie in charge, but, if He wants to give the USA a second chance He will hear my prayer and put Donald John Trump in charge.
#4. To: BobCeleste (#2)
9 Let his children be fatherless, and his wife a widow.
So your bible is telling you that Cruz should be dead.
It is convenient when your candidate preference aligns so nicely with deathwishing the other guy.
So should Kasich also die? Or is Cruz enough?
#8. To: TooConservative (#4)
so your bible is telling you that Cruz should be dead.
Don't you think you have marginalized yourself enough?
Do you really want to get into the Bible with me?
Replies to Comment # 8.
Don't you think you have marginalized yourself enough?
I post on LF. How much more marginal could I possibly be?
End Trace Mode for Comment # 8.
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