The Establishments war on Donald Trump
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Title: RNC Lays Groundwork for Nominee Who May Not Be Trump
Source:
Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a ... r-nominee-who-may-not-be-trump
Published: Apr 1, 2016
Author: Kevin Cirilli
Post Date: 2016-04-01 09:39:23 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1889
Comments: 27
The Republican National Committee has begun to prepare the public for what could prove to be a nasty convention. After months of tense dealings with Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, the Republican National Committee's biggest challenge is beginning to take shape: how to navigate a scenario in which Trump leads his challengers in votes and delegates heading into the convention, but loses the nomination. On Thursday in Washington, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus met with Trump and his inner circle, with the billionaire and his aides inquiring about delegate rules and protocol. Trump is poised to head to the party's July convention just short of the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. His leading rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, is already stoking the flames of a “Stop Trump” movement, and organizing an elaborate operation to win every delegate at the Cleveland convention. Trump has been adamant that the candidate with the most votes and delegates—even if that candidate misses the majority threshold—should be the party's nominee. In an MSNBC town hall on Wednesday, he described the process as “unfair.” “I have millions of more votes—that's my leverage,” Trump said. A Bloomberg Politics national poll in March showed that 63 percent of Republican voters support Trump's view that the candidate with the most delegates and voters should win the nomination. But party rules dictate a series of votes to determine the nominee, should he or she fail to break the 1,237-delegate threshold. RNC officials have launched a public-relations push in recent weeks to educate voters and the media about the process. They described it on their website and will host a conference call with reporters on Friday. The push signals the beginning of an effort by the party to lay the groundwork for what could unfold, and encourage voters to support the result. “Donald Trump may well end up having the most votes anyone has ever gotten in a Republican primary this time. That was true for Mrs. Clinton and she didn't get the nomination,” in 2008, said Ron Kauffman, a member of the RNC's rules committee. “The thing that the party has to do is to make sure the voters believe their votes matter to keep them in the party for November.” RNC officials at Thursday's meeting raised concerns that Trump could portray the party as having tainted the process in favor of a particular candidate, said a person familiar with the meeting who asked not to be named so as to discuss the matter more freely. Trump declined to state one way or the other what his strategy would be, but reiterated that he expected to be treated fairly in the process, the person said. Messages to an RNC spokesman weren’t immediately returned, though the party said in a statement released Thursday that Trump and Priebus “had a productive conversation about the state of the race.” Kauffman said party officials “have to make sure the RNC runs the convention by the rules, openly, honestly and transparently. And making sure people understand the rules so it's clear that we're doing it by the book.” That's what voters—both Trump critics and detractors, and those still undecided—say they want. “The establishment has been picking our candidates for years,” said Pattie Krych of Appleton, Wisconsin, who said she's undecided between Trump and Cruz. “They just need to let the process play out. If Trump wins, so be it—he's who we picked.” Dan Brown of Brodhead, Wisconsin, said he's voting for Trump and is skeptical that RNC officials are already trying to take the nomination away from him. “If they have a way to screw Trump out of the nomination, they will,” he said. “And I won't vote in a general election if they do. They're telling me that my vote means nothing.” In recent weeks, Trump has sought to formalize a delegate strategy. He hired Paul Manafort, an iconic Washington political strategist, to head up his delegate strategy, with Ben Carson's former campaign manager, Barry Bennett, helping him. “Someone is going to win and someone will lose and usually losers aren't happy,” said Kauffman, who has not endorsed a candidate. “All we can do is make sure it's honest and transparent by the rules. It's going to be fine in the end. I have no idea what's going to happen. I don't believe anyone does.”
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#1. To: cranky (#0)
Really? I guess the RNC are busy getting fitted for body armor, and buying armored vehicles to tool around in. Maybe also chartering planes to be standing by to fly them to undisclosed locations. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
So, they think they can BS everyone to "believe" that their votes matter. Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight !!! Well, I fully expect the "Party of Stupid", with all of their arrogance & chutzpah, to say: " It's our party, we do what we want, and you peons can ESAD " Then when November rolls around, and all of their former voters say FU, and stay home. They will then cry, and blame it on the voters they told to ESAD. Like I said, THE PARTY OF STUPID ! ! ! ! ! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Delegate counts are the least of Trump's issues right now. If he does not get a real campaign team in place for the remainder of the primary season, his campaign will implode.
For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)
The talk of Romney is fading somewhat. If Trump has the most delegates from the primaries and they reject him, it will actually be very hard to pick someone like Cruz who has far fewer votes, especially if Trump has ~1180 and Cruz has only ~1000. They could do it but it would likely backfire. And they still hate Cruz, just not as much as Trump. And trying to pick Kasich or Rubio or Jeb! or any others who ran in 2016 won't work either when they'll bring no more than a few hundred delegates on the first ballot. If they reject Trump, it is hard for them to try to foist someone who had only a tiny fraction of Trump's delegates on the party as a legit choice. They have the power to do it but that is just asking voters to stay home in a huff. I'm hearing Ryan's name much more now. He is already #3 in the line of succession as Speaker, has a squeaky clean record and family, handles himself ably in libmedia attacks, etc. Like Romney, he is a former nominee so his past is fully vetted and he is young (unlike Hitlery) and broadly acceptable to almost every faction of the GOP. At least, that seems to be the way the GOPe sees things at present if you read the tea leaves.
What's interesting is Ryan fights for his district each election cycle. The GOP convention may be his only ticket back to DC this cycle. For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight !!! Well, I fully expect the "Party of Stupid", with all of their arrogance & chutzpah, to say: " It's our party, we do what we want, and you peons can ESAD " Then when November rolls around, and all of their former voters say FU, and stay home. They will then cry, and blame it on the voters they told to ESAD. Like I said, THE PARTY OF STUPID ! ! ! ! ! There will be bluster before the convention if Trump does not have the delegate count. That's all bluster. The GOPe will realize a contested convention with someone other than the front runner will guarantee a demoncrat victory. Either way the numbers do not look good for the GOP this year. If they reject Trump, they lose with an imposed candidate. If Trump wins the nomination, Hitlery will win given Trump's unfavorables. For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)
Maybe ? But, I am not convinced. We will see. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood "I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Indeed. IDM matter who the REPs are already toast in 2016. Be prepared for DRat control of all three branches of the Fed government. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
Of course unfavorable ratings can turn in the right direction quickly, however that usually happens as a result of a resounding convention. The GOP is preparing for a contested convention, not a unifying party platform gathering under the candidate of their majority choice. So Trump loses that convention bump, which can amount to may 5 points in favorability, 2-3 points in the general population. He has a double digit gap with women of over 20%. That's significant and insurmountable if he does not get a good PR team in place that understands the demographics and assaults the opposition daily, while coming off as more Presidential. Women don't hate Trump because he is a loud mouth, but that he is not what they see as Presidential. He can easily address these matters but it needs to happen now with the right people and right message. For example, he could take a few days off from Tweeting and going on the Morning Joe to work with a foreign policy team and give a national security speech instead of sound bites of walls and waterboarding. He can ease off on those comments because he has nailed down that demographic, now he needs to get more of the people who look to a US President to be a sane, collected and calculating person. For when we were still without strength, in due time Christ died for the ungodly. For scarcely for a righteous man will one die; yet perhaps for a good man someone would even dare to die. But God demonstrates His own love toward us, in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us. (Romans 5:6-8)
The party has a lot of down-ticket candidates too. Trump as nominee means the loss of the Senate. Increasingly, it looks like he would cause the GOP to lose the House as well. In the face of hard choices, dumping Trump and accepting it is unlikely to win the WH will be more attractive than losing the WH and both houses of Congress. Trump is an absolute general election disaster. That is the consensus of the pundits and pollsters and the GOP leadership. Hitlery could get indicted by the FBI a week before the election and still beat him. With Trump as nominee we're looking at a Dem landslide, in the range of 425-475.
Given the disaster of Trump, they'll opt for triage to try to save the House and have some chance of holding the Senate (or staying within striking distance of a majority).
That isn't necessarily true. Even if they don't pick Ryan, they have other options. For instance, they could get Kasich to give Cruz his delegates in exchange for the VP slot (smart play all around since we never win without Ohio). And they could promise AG to Christie and get his delegates. By various means, they could pick up another 200-300 delegates from Rubio and Bush. It could be a fairly successful convention. So a Cruz-Kasich ticket, backed by the other also-rans, could muster on the order of 1700-2000 delegate votes while Trump would still have in the range of 1100-1200. It wouldn't make the Trumpsters any less bitter but it would help with the indies that hate Trump and don't like Hitlery to begin with.
What's less likely than that to backfire: nominating someone who didn't run and has 0 delegates? And if Cruz won a second or later floor vote, why would his first-vote count matter?
In 1992, 19M folks turned out to vote for Perot. In 2016, if the establishment rigs the nomination, a lot more may turn out to cast an FU vote for Libertarians or whomever Trump might support with a few hundred million dollars.
Have a hankie, ya big baby.
I have been less than thrilled with Ryan's performance as Speaker so far . Too often he forges coaltions with the Dems to basically pass the Dem agenda ,leaving the conservative caucus on the losing side of the bill. On paper his budget is ok ;but he will not be able to pass it unless he makes enough concessions to fundamentlly change it . It's amusing that people are suprised that a convention can end up contested . I guess that is because recently the nominee was coronated before the primary process really began. I would've loved to sit in at the 1940 convention when the gallery erupted into a 'We want Wilkie ' chant . He was the Trump of his time ....a former Democrat who was a business CEO and had no elected office experience. He was famous for his ad lib speeches without prepared text.He had made a national name for himself on the major media of his time ;the radio where he was big on a show called "Information,Please".Wilkie like Trump favored many of the big government programs of his time (the New Deal) . The difference ? He favored America giving aid to England in WWII unlike Robert Taft ,the isolationist 'America First ' candidate in the race (he was also the legacy candidate being the son of President William Howard Taft). The other major candidate was the Rubio of his day ,Thomas Dewey .He was considered too young to be taken seriously .There were also 7 or 8 minor candidates that got delegate votes in the 1st 5 ballots. After he won the nomination ,Wilkie pivoted in an attempt to differentiate himself from FDR . He became the isolationist candidate which was a losing card. He was pummeled in the general election . By 1944 there was talk of a 'hybrid party ' ticket of Roosevelt and Wilkie .It was seriously considered by the 2 .Wilkie's untimely death ended that intrigue . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
A very good question. It plays into my scenario for a Cruz-Kasich ticket with the delegates of the other also-rans, able to muster 75% or more of all delegates on a second ballot. Then you'd have a unity convention with all the also-rans given prime-time speeches with hints that most will be in the Cruz cabinet. And Donaldo can stomp home in a huff and take his odious cult with him.
You certainly know your 1940 convention minutiae well, far better than I. Hey, I did mention Wilkie first though! I get a few points for that convention history footnote.
Do you think Mr. Trump will support himself as an independent? That scenario seems more likely with each passing day..... "we are tartets from evil doers!!!" [ and ] U looked up birfer on the dcitionary. It isn't a movie. "Listen piece of shit. Call me anti American again and your're banned. I don't like you." - aka stoned -
yes you do. I had considered other scenarios like Reagan's loss the Ford .But that result was pretty much locked up before the convention . I also considered the 1912 convention where Teddy Roosevelt had a hissy fit and broke away from the Republicans to attempt a 3rd party run (and in doing gave us the Woodrow Wilson reign). "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
I've seen others saying the same about 1912. I think they are assuming what would happen if Trump loses and then runs indy or if some faction of the GOP runs an indy candidate against Trump as the GOP nominee. I consider that increasingly less likely. A lot of states have sore-loser laws and petition requirements and ballot filing requirements that make it much more difficult to make such a late start for a third-party run in 2016.
That scenario seems more likely with each passing day..... I still think Trump will go well past the majority of delegates needed for a first ballot nomination. When the primaries move to New York and the northeast, Cruz will likely run third, behind Kasich in a distant second, with Cruz joining Kasich as mathematically eliminated from gaining a majority. After that, Cruz will be just another spoiler candidate. I don't think Trump could get himself on many ballots in a late attempted independent run. There are sore loser laws and many states require simultaneous registration deadlines for the primaries and general election. These are establishment created hurdles. It is possible Trump could find a way or that he could endorse, e.g., the Libertarian Party (probably Gary Johnson, party debate tonight) and give it some funding and act as a wrecking ball on tv. Trump could attack the corruption of process by the GOPe. The party hacks running for office would have one hell of a time.
If Kasich doesn't learn how to eat pizza ,he doesn't stand a chance. His forward people should've at least let him know that NYers don't eat pizza with a fork. They need to get him up to speed about knishes ,pastrami sandwiches ,and dirty water hot dogs in a hurry . He also needs to wear a Yankee or Mets cap wherever he goes in the city . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
Yeah, I noticed that one. I'm originally from the Bronx. No matter how gigantic the slice, no fork. He should at least be able to distinguish between a Yankee NY and a Mets NY. I have two old classics of NY official collegiate hats they just don't sell anymore. St. John's Redmen, and Fordham University featuring a big FU on the front. He could try one of those.
I'll wear the Fordham hat ! . I was from Long Island . But spent a lot of time staying with my friend who was attending Manhattan College ;and going to Yankee Stadium.
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
A Trump/Sanders write-in fusion ticket could easily win. All those pissed off voters would overwhelm the D&R establishment puppets. There's not a dimes worth of difference between a Vermont big gov socialist, and a NYC big gov socialist anyway.
" RNC Lays Groundwork for Nominee Who May Not Be Trump "
#2. To: cranky (#0)
" “The thing that the party has to do is to make sure the voters believe their votes matter to keep them in the party for November.” "
#3. To: cranky (#0)
#4. To: cranky, tomder55, ConservingFreedom, SOSO (#0)
#5. To: TooConservative (#4)
I'm hearing Ryan's name much more now. He is already #3 in the line of succession as Speaker, has a squeaky clean record and family, handles himself ably in libmedia attacks, etc. Like Romney, he is a former nominee so his past is fully vetted and he is young (unlike Hitlery) and broadly acceptable to almost every faction of the GOP. At least, that seems to be the way the GOPe sees things at present if you read the tea leaves.
#6. To: Stoner (#2)
So, they think they can BS everyone to "believe" that their votes matter.
#7. To: redleghunter (#6)
" If Trump wins the nomination, Hitlery will win given Trump's unfavorables. "
#8. To: TooConservative, cranky, tomder55, ConservingFreedom (#4)
Like Romney,
#9. To: Stoner (#7)
Maybe ? But, I am not convinced. We will see.
#10. To: redleghunter (#6)
Either way the numbers do not look good for the GOP this year. If they reject Trump, they lose with an imposed candidate. If Trump wins the nomination, Hitlery will win given Trump's unfavorables.
#11. To: SOSO (#8)
IDM matter who the REPs are already toast in 2016. Be prepared for DRat control of all three branches of the Fed government.
#12. To: redleghunter (#6)
Either way the numbers do not look good for the GOP this year. If they reject Trump, they lose with an imposed candidate.
#13. To: TooConservative (#4)
If Trump has the most delegates from the primaries and they reject him, it will actually be very hard to pick someone like Cruz who has far fewer votes, especially if Trump has ~1180 and Cruz has only ~1000. They could do it but it would likely backfire.
#14. To: Stoner, cranky (#2)
Then when November rolls around, and all of their former voters say FU, and stay home.
#15. To: cranky (#0)
Trump has been adamant that the candidate with the most votes and delegates—even if that candidate misses the majority threshold—should be the party's nominee. In an MSNBC town hall on Wednesday, he described the process as “unfair.”
#16. To: TooConservative (#4)
#17. To: ConservingFreedom (#13)
And if Cruz won a second or later floor vote, why would his first-vote count matter?
#18. To: tomder55 (#16)
The difference ? He favored America giving aid to England in WWII unlike Robert Taft ,the isolationist 'America First ' candidate in the race (he was also the legacy candidate being the son of President William Howard Taft). The other major candidate was the Rubio of his day ,Thomas Dewey .He was considered too young to be taken seriously .There were also 7 or 8 minor candidates that got delegate votes in the 1st 5 ballots.
#19. To: nolu chan (#14)
a lot more may turn out to cast an FU vote for Libertarians or whomever Trump might support with a few hundred million dollars.
#20. To: TooConservative (#18)
I get a few points for that convention history footnote.
#21. To: tomder55 (#20)
(Edited)
I also considered the 1912 convention where Teddy Roosevelt had a hissy fit and broke away from the Republicans to attempt a 3rd party run (and in doing gave us the Woodrow Wilson reign).
#22. To: Jameson (#19)
Do you think Mr. Trump will support himself as an independent?
#23. To: nolu chan (#22)
When the primaries move to New York and the northeast, Cruz will likely run third, behind Kasich in a distant second,
#24. To: tomder55 (#23)
If Kasich doesn't learn how to eat pizza ,he doesn't stand a chance. His forward people should've at least let him know that NYers don't eat pizza with a fork.
#25. To: nolu chan (#24)
#26. To: nolu chan, Jameson, TooConservative, Fred Mertz (#22)
(Edited)
It is possible Trump could find a way or that he could endorse, e.g., the Libertarian Party (probably Gary Johnson, party debate tonight) and give it some funding and act as a wrecking ball
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#27. To: hondo68 (#26)
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