The Establishments war on Donald Trump
See other The Establishments war on Donald Trump Articles
Title: Donald Trump is unstoppable
Source:
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Published: Mar 16, 2016
Author: linker
Post Date: 2016-03-16 12:19:04 by calcon
Keywords: None
Views: 13504
Comments: 52
When historians tell the story of the 2016 election, they may choose to break down the Republican race into a succession of fleeting moments or moods — each of them expressing a wish for Donald Trump to disappear.
Long before a single vote had been cast but months after Trump rose to the top of every opinion poll, there was the "Rubio is the virtual frontrunner" moment. That was followed by the "Trump's support will vanish once the voting begins" consensus. Then, as the primaries and caucuses began and Trump took the lead in delegates and never lost it, we entered the phase that could best be described as "Trump will start faltering as soon as more of his opponents drop out." That lasted for weeks, as one by one, his opponents dropped out.
And yet, Trump kept winning more states. He racked up more delegates than anyone else. Along the way there was the brief "Trump is losing!" boomlet, followed by the emerging conventional wisdom of the past couple of weeks: Even if he finishes in first place, Trump will fail to win more than a plurality of delegates, falling short of the magic number (1,237) needed to become the automatic nominee.
And that brings us to The Present Moment: A contested convention awaits!
No, it doesn't.
Like every other Trump Doomsday Prediction of the past nine months, this one is an expression of denial. The depressing and exceedingly ominous fact is that Donald Trump is winning. Not everywhere. Not always by an enormous margin. But he's beating his rivals with remarkable consistency and with more than enough decisiveness to get the majority of delegates he needs to win the nomination outright. That, and not some fanciful contested convention in which the non-Trump majority miraculously comes together to thwart the man with the plurality of delegates in his pocket, is by far the more likely scenario.
This would have been true even if Trump hadn't won Florida, Illinois, and North Carolina on Tuesday. But that outcome makes his ultimate victory far more certain. Not only did he pick up at least 150 delegates on Tuesday (that's a conservative estimate, and will go way up if Trump maintains his razor-thin lead in too-close-to-call Missouri). But John Kasich's victory in his home state of Ohio, while depriving Trump of the state's 66 delegates, ensures that Kasich will stay in the race for at least a few weeks longer, continuing to divide the non-Trump vote in Arizona and Utah on March 22 and maybe Wisconsin on April 5 and beyond.
The longer Trump gets to face a divided field, the longer Cruz has to wait to consolidate the non-Trump vote. And the more victories and delegates Trump will pile up.
And there's a very big pile ahead.
Trump already has at least 621 pledged delegates, and will rack up more as Tuesday's votes are finalized. He already has more than half of what he needs to clinch the nomination. Between now and the last primaries on June 7, there will be eight (state- or district-level) winner-take-all contests — in Arizona, Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Indiana, California, New Jersey, and South Dakota. That's another 439 delegates. If Trump won all of them, he'd have 1,060 — just 177 delegates short of what he needs.
Now Trump probably won't win all of those states — and he probably won't win all of the delegates in all of the states he does win, because of the quirks of district-level delegate allocation. But that leaves a long list of proportional states where Trump will surely win significant numbers of additional delegates. Cruz may win big in Utah, New Mexico, and few other places. (Mitt Romney's attack on Trump will carry a lot of weight among the many Mormons in the former, while the latter borders Cruz's home state of Texas.) But what about Trump's home state of New York (with 95 delegates), and Maryland, and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, and Oregon, and Nebraska, and Washington, and Connecticut, and Rhode Island? Maybe Cruz will carry Nebraska and another state or two. But will Trump really lose enough states to fail to earn the delegates he'll need?
Nothing we've seen over the past couple of months gives us any reason to conclude that. Trump has swept the South, but he's also won Massachusetts, Nevada, Michigan, and Illinois. Even the mantra recited endlessly by Trump skeptics — he's only capable of winning a third of the Republican electorate! — has begun to be proven wrong. His vote share has now climbed to 37.1 percent, and he's won several major states with considerably higher totals, most notably the high-population and demographically heterogeneous Florida, with just under 46 percent of the vote.
With Trump facing only two opponents now, that total will climb further. It will likely remain a low number by historical standards, but he's approaching the level of party support attained by Democrats Walter Mondale in 1984 (38.3 percent) and Jimmy Carter in 1976 (40.2 percent). Again: low. But not unprecedented.
None of which means we should be cheering on Trump's march to the nomination of his party. His campaign is tearing the Republican Party apart and injecting a form of authoritarian thuggishness into American politics that should send a chill down the spine of anyone who cares about the nation's liberal democratic traditions and civic norms.
But that doesn't mean we should allow ourselves to give in to more rounds of wishful thinking. Trump is winning. And it's hard to see how that winning can be stopped.
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Not hard at all. All that needs to happen is to have a brokered convention. Trump could easily lose that.
If the GOPe indicates such an attempt, Trump and Cruz can combine to take a very public dump on the establishment's head. It does not appear that anyone can stop Trump from reaching a majority 1237 and wrapping up a first-ballot win.
The party establishment whores should be spending their time preparing resumes. The people have resoundingly rejected their candidates and are not listening to their bleats.
#4. To: SOSO (#2)
He may go into the convention with enough delegate . But if he doesn't ;then his campaign willhave to 'work ' the delegates he has to make sure they won't bail on him after the 1st ballot . Are they really committed to him ? Hard to tell. Then again who will Rubio, Carson ,Bush delegates go once they are free of their obligation ?
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
#5. To: nolu chan (#3)
It does not appear that anyone can stop Trump from reaching a majority 1237 and wrapping up a first-ballot win.
It is very unlikely that Trump will have enough votes on the first ballot.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#6. To: SOSO (#2)
the end of the GOP as we know it
And that would be bad how?
The reset button for the Republic is down on the Potomac:
If they'd just bother to RTFM and figure out how it was suppose to work!
#7. To: VxH (#6)
the end of the GOP as we know itAnd that would be bad how?
It wouldn't IF the same happened to the DRats. But that is not happening. In fact it is very likely that the DRats would take control of all three branches of the government, at which point the Obama's "rebuilding and fundamental change" will be unstoppable. The DRats would have absolute, uncontested control of the government, media, public schools and military. There would be no-one of any consequence to keep them in check, not even a feeble REP Party. I would not want to live in that transformed country. How about you?
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#8. To: tomder55 (#4)
He may go into the convention with enough delegate . But if he doesn't ;then his campaign willhave to 'work ' the delegates he has to make sure they won't bail on him after the 1st ballot . Are they really committed to him ? Hard to tell. Then again who will Rubio, Carson ,Bush delegates go once they are free of their obligation ?
It appears to me that there are many wild cards that could come into play. In any event, I do not expect REPs will strongly unify about the Party's nominee and therefore be in a very weakened position going into the general election. I would not at all be surprised if we see a third party rise up out of the ashes of the REP Party.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#9. To: calcon (#0)
injecting a form of authoritarian thuggishness into American politics that should send a chill down the spine of anyone who cares about the nation's liberal democratic traditions and civic norms.
injecting a form of authoritarian thuggishness into American politics that should send a THRILL down the spine of anyone who cares about the nation's liberal democratic traditions and civic norms.
If you ... don't use exclamation points --- you should't be typeing ! Commas - semicolons - question marks are for girlie boys !
#10. To: SOSO (#5)
It is very unlikely that Trump will have enough votes on the first ballot.
Cruz/Kasich would need to win a majority of the remaining delegates to stop Trump. Where are they going to win that majority?
Trump has 646, Cruz 397, and Kasich 142.
1,103 are available. 1,237 are needed.
Kasich is mathematically eliminated.
Trump needs 591 of 1,193 or 49.5% of the remainder.
Just who is going to win 51.6% and stop him? Who is going to do it, and where. Cruz' best states are behind him. Kasich's only state is behind him.
Kasich and Rubio combined did not reach a majority in ANY state, not even Ohio. Give Kasich all of Rubio's slim support, and where does he win?
Trump beat Cruz in all five state yesterday.
81.4%, MO, Trump/Cruz
69.1%, IL, Trump/Cruz
77.0%, NC, Trump/Cruz
62.8%, FL, Trump/Cruz
49.7%, OH, Kasich/Rubio
48.7%, OH, Trump/Cruz
OH
Kasich 46.8%
Trump 35.6%
Cruz 13.1%
Rubio 02.9%
Other 1.5%
MO
Trump 40.8%
Cruz 40.6%
Kasich 10.1%
Rubio 06.1%
Other 02.3%
IL
Trump 38.8%
Cruz 30.3%
Kasich 19.7%
Rubio 08.7%
Other 2.5%
NC
Trump 40.2%
Cruz 36.8%
Kasich 12.7%
Rubio 07.7%
FL
Trump 45.7%
Rubio 27.0%
Cruz 17.1%
Kasich 06.8%
Other 3.3%
#11. To: nolu chan (#10)
Kasich and Rubio combined did not reach a majority in ANY state, not even Ohio.
Neither did Trump. The past represented a four plus person race only winnowed down to a four person race the last go around. It is now a three person race. Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward? I don't think Trump will get many of them. Perhaps many will just not vote. It all remains to be seen.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#12. To: SOSO (#7)
A one-winged uniparty would still be the uniparty.
Cruz wasn't elected by the uniparty. That's why they hate him.
I think there will be others.
#13. To: SOSO (#11)
[nc #10] Cruz/Kasich would need to win a majority of the remaining delegates to stop Trump. Where are they going to win that majority?
CRICKETS.
[SOSO #11] It is now a three person race. Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward?
It is irrelevant. For the sake of argument, you can give Kasich all non-Trump/Cruz delegates and it would still be meaningless. Kasich would then rise to 333.
Kasich has been shut out in 19 contests: SC, AL, AK, AR, GA, MN, OK, TN, TX, LA, HI, ID, MS, WY, FL, MO, MP, PR, GU.
In over 30 contests, he has won one (1). Saturday, his other results were 3rd, 3rd, 3rd and 4th.
Where is Kasich going to win? There are only 19 states left, none named Ohio.
22 March -- AZ, UT
05 April -- WI
19 April -- NY
26 April -- CT, DE, MD, PA, RI
03 May -- IN
10 May -- NE, WV
17 May -- OR
24 May -- WA
07 June -- CA, MT, NJ, NM, SD
Those are not the most Cruz-friendly states either. The South is done and Trump won the Cruz territory.
#14. To: calcon (#0)
" . . . fleeting moments or moods — each of them expressing a wish for Donald Trump to disappear. "
That would be the GOPe. Ef em. That was how they made us feel about McStain and Romney. And Boner, and McConnell, etc, etc!
About time they got a taste of their own medicine!!
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
#15. To: nolu chan (#13)
This is not scientific, but I have family in WV, and NM. They seem to think those states will go for Trump. I hope they are right!
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
#16. To: nolu chan (#13)
#17. To: calcon (#1)
Trump is a political comedian therefore, he can't be a President.
#18. To: buckeroo (#17)
Trump is a political comedian therefore, he can't be a President.
That's like saying because you are a drug loving libtarded retard, you can't be a forum poster.
I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
#19. To: A K A Stone (#16)
For a 15 sec advert I found it pretty good. I wish he'd extend it to 30 sec and include his WWE heroics.
Trump ads should promote Trump.
#20. To: GrandIsland (#18)
#21. To: nolu chan (#3)
The party establishment whores should be spending their time preparing resumes.
They own the political party process, chan. They aren't going anywhere; metaphorically speaking the GOP is like a big fart in a small room. They can chase everyone out.
#22. To: buckeroo (#20)
do you still go into donut shops threatening the workers for a free donut?
Only if that donut worker is a Ron Paul supporter, a welfare supporter, a convicted drug felon, a black lives matter supporter or a cop block career criminal.
I'm the infidel... Allah warned you about. كافر المسلح
#23. To: GrandIsland (#22)
That's a pretty funny retort, GI. Live long and prosper.
#24. To: GrandIsland (#22)
Ron Paul is one of the GREATEST Americans in US History ensuring Americans had ample information to guard themselves from an oppressive US government.
Where were you while the information was available? In a donut shop? Beating up little kids walking to school? Kleaning out your empty beer cans from your mom's basement? Kissing the 24" X 48" framed, colour picture of Mitt Romney hanging on your wall that is located right by your 50,000 poppers near your bed?
#25. To: nolu chan (#13)
Cruz/Kasich would need to win a majority of the remaining delegates to stop Trump. Where are they going to win that majority?
I never claimed that either would. All I claimed was (1) Trump hasn't yet won 50% of any of the state primaries and caucus votes, and, (2) Trump will likely not get the 50% + 1 he needs before the Convention. So neither Cruz or Kasich jave to win a majority they just have to stop Trump from getting it. If Trump runs the table he will get the nomination (maybe).
Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward?"
..........CRICKETS..............
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#26. To: GrandIsland, Trump the mooselimb, *Arab Spring Jihad* (#22)
كافر المسلح
Donald on pilgrimage to Mecca.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul#27. To: SOSO (#25)
Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward?"
An even split between Hillary and Kasich.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul#28. To: hondo68, nolu chan (#27)
Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward?"An even split between Hillary and Kasich.
Thank you. I never even saw nolu's lips move.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#29. To: VxH (#12)
I think there will be others.
Other what?
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#30. To: SOSO (#25) (Edited)
I never claimed that either would. All I claimed was (1) Trump hasn't yet won 50% of any of the state primaries and caucus votes, and, (2) Trump will likely not get the 50% + 1 he needs before the Convention.
What you said at #5 was, "It is very unlikely that Trump will have enough votes on the first ballot."
Based on what is it very unlikely? When asked where Cruz/Kasich are likely to succeed in winning the delegates required to stop Trump, you go mute or change the subject.
There is no reason to forecast Kasich going on a winning spree. Trump has been beating Cruz time after time in areas favorable to Cruz. They are going to areas favorable to Trump.
It is down to three candidates. To stop Trump, Cruz and Kasich have to take a win enough of the remaining delegates to do it.
Trump just beat Cruz in another six out of six contests. Kasich won his home state and finished 3rd or lower in the other 5 contests.
Trump leads Cruz by 2+ million popular votes. He Kasich by nearly 5 million.
7,536,465 Trump
5,477,506 Cruz
3,364,453 Rubio
2,722,398 Kasich
Kasich may need to hustle to get a rules change in order for his name to ever be placed in nomination. He has a rule 40(b) problem.
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
If the establishment moves for a contested convention, blocking both Trump and Cruz, that will only force a Trump/Cruz merger which would control around 80% of the delegates.
As for Kasich, a candidate who has been mathematically eliminated from 1st or 2nd has a tough time building a following based on a single home state win. But Kasich should rise to not finish lower than third, as long as he can beat other. In Florida, he only beat other by 3.5%.
Who do you think Rubio's supporters will vote for going forward?"..........CRICKETS..............
I answered that irrelevant question. "It is irrelevant. For the sake of argument, you can give Kasich all non-Trump/Cruz delegates and it would still be meaningless."
Most of that meager lot will go to Kasich. Even if Kasich got all the Rubio votes, it is not enough. As stated above, Trump has about 1.5 million more than the two of them combined. Cruz comes close to matching the two of them together.
Arithmetic suggests Kasich must take votes from Trump or Cruz to be competitive. Attitudes suggest Trump and Cruz supporters would rather drop dead than vote for another establishment tool.
#31. To: nolu chan (#30)
Based on what is it very unlikely?
Based on what? This: For the remainder of the primaries, there are 534 delegates in 9 WTA states.
Trump would have to win all 9 and he still would not have the 1237 needed to win on the first ballot (he would have 1207). He would also then have to win another 30 or so delegates from the remaining proportional states. This is not impossible but very unlikely. Co is a total wild card as its delegates are not pledged to anyone yet and won't be until the delegates actually vote at the convention.
I don't think that Kasich will win another state but he might. Any combination of Cruz plus Kasich wins would have the same result.
But there is no sense arguing about this. We will find out soon enough. FTR I think that it is likely Trump will be the REP nominee but he won't win it on the first ballot. You may have the last word on this subject.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#32. To: buckeroo (#24)
Ron Paul is one of the GREATEST Americans in US History
Yet he would let our kids get addicted to Heroin.
Then say it is their right.
He has some good points but he is kind of nutso.
#33. To: Fred Mertz, Grandisland (#19)
#34. To: calcon (#1)
He doesn't hve the required 1237 yet. Until then, he is quite stoppable.
#35. To: SOSO (#2)
A brokered convention would be a disaster. A contested convention is a different thing. That's actually what conventions are for.
#36. To: TBP (#35)
A brokered convention would be a disaster. A contested convention is a different thing.
You may think that a contested convention is not a brokered convention if you wish.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#37. To: SOSO (#29)
Other what?
Others who've lost their appetite for the dialectic bullshyte being fed to the populist herd ala "Reality" TeeVee.
#38. To: VxH (#37)
Other what?Others who've lost their appetite for the dialectic bullshyte being fed to the populist herd ala "Reality" TeeVee.
And just how does that result in an actionable majority in Congress and on SCOTUS?
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#39. To: SOSO (#31)
Based on what? This: For the remainder of the primaries, there are 534 delegates in 9 WTA states.Trump would have to win all 9 and he still would not have the 1237 needed to win on the first ballot (he would have 1207). He would also then have to win another 30 or so delegates from the remaining proportional states. This is not impossible but very unlikely. Co is a total wild card as its delegates are not pledged to anyone yet and won't be until the delegates actually vote at the convention.
Cruz has a reasonable chance of beating Trump in Oregon, Washington, Montana, New Mexico, South Dakota, Nebraska, Maryland, and Delaware. This would deny Trump the needed 1237.
Cruz has a better chance of having angels fly out of his arse than win all the states you cite. In northern states, his delivery is seen as that of a televangelist snake oil salesman.
534 is less than half of the 1103 available.
Your figure is inaccurate. There are 6 WTA states by statewide vote, not 9.
http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/delegate-count-tracker
Presidential primaries
Last updated Mar 17, 2016 at 1:22 PM CT
673 - Trump
411 - Cruz
169 - Rubio
143 - Kasich
008 - Carson
006 - Uncommitted
004 - Bush
001 - Fiorina
001 - Huckabee
001 - Paul
000 - Christie
000 - Gilmore
000 - Santorum
1,417 delegates allocated
3 delegates from Missouri await allocation to either Trump or Cruz.
1055 delegates remain to be allocated. (2472 - 1417)
1237 - 673 indicates Trump needs 564 more.
Trump needs 53.46% of the remainder.
- - - - - - - - - -
Kasich appears to have an advantage nowhere. Having declined a debate with Cruz, perhaps Kasich intends to enter the witness protection plan and let the establishment hitmen run their attack ads. Thus far, they have exibited the Midas touch, with every candidate they touched turning to shit.
Kasich recites the same mini-speeches over and over again, just as did Rubio until Christie annihilated him for doing it. How he will get any air time eludes me.
The RCPa average of polls nationally has Trump up 14.2 points over Cruz and 24 points over Kasich.
As for the Winner-Take-All (WTA) contests, the six states are AZ (58), WI (42), DE (16), MT (27), NJ (51), SD (29).
That is 223 delegates in full WTA states, not your claimed 534.
WI (42), IN (57), and MD (38) are not true WTA states. Calling them WTA states still only makes 360 deleges.
Wisconsin, Indiana, and Maryland use a hybrid system by statewide and by district. It is not WTA by statewide vote. Multiple candidates can divide up the vote.
First up is Arizona.
Arizona, with a closed contest, offers 58 delegates on Tuesday, March 22. Trump is sporting a 12 point lead over Cruz and a 21 point lead over Kasich. Trump is the prospective winner.
538 forecasts a 93-95% liklihood of Trump winning Arizona.
Arizona Republican Presidential Primary
Merrill PollTrump 31
Cruz 19
Kasich 10Trump +12
Kasich -21
Wisconsin, with an open contest, offers 42 delegates on Tuesday, April 5. Trump has won Illinois and Michigan. In Illinois, it was Trump 551,569; Cruz 430,497; and Kasich 279,928. Trump should dominate Wisconsin.
Delaware with a closed contest, offers 31 delegates on Tuesday, April 26. Trump should dominate.
Maryland, with a closed contest, offers 118 delegates on Tuesday, April 26. Trump should dominate in Maryland. In Virginia, it was Trump 355,960; Cruz 173,193; and Kasich 96,519.
Indiana, with an open contest, offers 57 delegates on Tuesday, May 3. Trump has handily won Michigan, Illinois, and Kentucky -- in Michigan it was Trump 483,751, Cruz 330,015, and Kasich 321,655, in Illinois, it was Trump 551,569, Cruz 430,497, and Kasich 279,928; in Kentucky it was Trump 82,493, Cruz 72,503, and Kasich 33,134. Advantage Trump.
Montana, with an open contest, offers 27 delegates on Tuesday, June 7. This is a state that Cruz may win.
New Jersey, with a closed contest, offers 51 delegates on Tuesday, June 7. Trump will dominate in New Jersey.
South Dakota, with a closed contest, offers 29 delegates on Tuesday, June 7.
Pennsylvania, with a closed contest, is a conditional "Combined Selection Winner-Take-All Primary Statewide, Loophole Primary District" state. It offers 71 delegates onTuesday, April 26.
http://www.thegreenpapers.com/Definitions.html#Loop
LOOPHOLE PRIMARYThe "LOOPHOLE" type of primary, in essence, is an updated version of what is the oldest form of the Presidential Preference (as opposed to DELEGATE SELECTION) primary - dating back to when Oregon enacted the very first statute authorizing just such a primary for the 1912 election. In this, what is really the original form of the ADVISORY primary, there was both a presidential preference "beauty contest" vote and a separate DELEGATE SELECTION primary held at the same time: the voter had the opportunity to indicate a preferred candidate from among the list of names of presidential contenders on the top ballot but actually elected the delegates to the National Convention as individuals or on slates listed on a separate ballot directly beneath the presidential preference one. Since the actual delegates were being elected through a separate voting procedure, the presidential preference results were merely "advisory" giving this type of primary its original sobriquet. In theory, the state's National Convention delegates were to throw their support behind - and give their votes on the Convention floor to - the winner of the presidential preference "beauty contest": however, the hopes of the early supporters of the Presidential Primary (the majority of which were of this type) were to be dashed in presidential election after presidential election as many a state's delegation often as not ignored the "advice" of the state party's rank-and-file as expressed in the preference balloting. This type of primary first got its name of "LOOPHOLE" in 1976 when many political observers and pundits realized that, in any state still using what was - in effect - the original advisory preference/delegate selection type of primary, it was theoretically possible for a candidate to win all that state's delegates despite the McGovern-Fraser reforms which had outlawed the more blatant WINNER-TAKE-ALL preference vote in favor of the PROPORTIONAL type for Democrats: all a presidential contender had to do was to elect his slates of district and at-large delegates in the bottom delegate selection balloting and it didn't much matter how he did in the top of the ballot presidential preference "beauty contest" , a convenient "loophole" for getting around the Democratic Party's ban on WINNER-TAKE-ALL primaries, hence the name - one which caught on, as it differentiated this type of "beauty contest" primary from the ADVISORY type. The LOOPHOLE type was banned in the Democratic primaries of 1980, but exemptions were made for Illinois and West Virginia - a tribute to both the Cook County, Ill. Democratic machine and West Virginia Sen. Robert Byrd, respectively, being powerful enough in national Democratic Party circles to keep their states' "beauty contest" preference vote in place for that year; the subsequent Hunt "counter-reforms" restored the LOOPHOLE type as legal under Democratic Party rules for 1984 and 1988 and, while the Democratic "re-reforms" effective in 1992 had sought to discourage the use of the LOOPHOLE primary, it nevertheless survived among the Democrats in West Virginia - again, largely due to the influence of that state's Sen. Byrd on the national party hierarchy. In 1996, however, no Democratic primary was of the LOOPHOLE type. The GOP, meanwhile, has no national party rules against the use of the LOOPHOLE type and a handful of states did use it for the choosing of delegates to the Republican National Convention in 1996.
California, with a Mixed contest, offers 172 delegates on Tuesday, June 7, and is a PROPORTIONAL state.
California Republican Presidential Primary
Landslide/NSONTrump 38
Cruz 22
Kasich 20
Rubio 10Trump +16
Kasich -18
Trump has a clear advantage in California.
Trump appears to have an advantage in all of the WTA type states except for Montana and South Dakota, where Cruz may win. It appears Kasich demonstrates no advantage, anywhere. It may be a test of whether he can claim Marcomentum and give victory speech after victory speech following third place finishes.
#40. To: nolu chan (#39)
Cruz has a better chance of having angels fly out of his arse than win all the states you cite.
He doesn't need to win them all to deny Trump the 1237.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#41. To: Fred Mertz, sneakypete (#19)
#42. To: A K A Stone (#41)
How is Trump going to force Apple and Carrier to move manufacturing back to the USA?
#43. To: buckeroo (#42)
How is Trump going to force Apple and Carrier to move manufacturing back to the USA?
Hit squads.
.
.
.
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