Ohio Gov. John Kasich speaks with members of the media in Westerville, Ohio, after voting in the March 15 primary election. | AP Photo
Advisers to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz say there's no way they'll allow John Kasich to even compete at a contested national convention let alone prevail.
Trump and Cruz are betting that their dual dominance in the delegate hunt will permanently box out the Ohio governor, who has no mathematical path to the nomination and is openly pursuing a floor fight at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland. And their aides say Kasich won't even make it to the floor.
There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated, Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman whos advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. Its a two-man race.
Their confidence is rooted in the fact that Trump and Cruz are nearly certain to control the lions share of the 2,472 delegates participating in the July convention. Together, theyve earned more than 1,000 delegate slots to Kasichs 136. And those delegates will ultimately approve the rules that govern a contested convention.
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul requires that any candidate eligible for the nomination win the majority of delegates in eight states or territories. In 31 contests so far, Kasichs only win came Tuesday night in Ohio his home state and its unlikely hell command majority support in seven of the remaining 20 contests.
Theres a small chance Cruz could fail to meet the target as well. Hes only won majority support in four contests so far. Trump, with a dominant win in the Northern Mariana Islands early Tuesday, became the first candidate to cross the threshold.
To be sure, the convention rules will get a thorough review and revision when delegates convene in Cleveland, raising the possibility that the threshold to participate could be lowered, making room for Kasich. But with Trump and Cruz delegates at the helm, its unlikely theyll adjust it to help a rival.
The Cruz folks would never allow the rules to be changed and of course we wouldn't either, said Barry Bennett, whos coordinating Trumps convention strategy. The laws of math are not amendable.
Trumps resounding wins in Florida, Illinois and North Carolina on Tuesday may preclude a contested convention altogether. If he secures the support of a majority of delegates over the next three months, he would enter Cleveland as the presumptive nominee and head off any challenge to his supremacy. But Kasich has predicated his candidacy on the notion that no one will have a majority entering the convention. Whats been unclear until now is that even if hes right, Kasich may have little reason to hope hell get the partys nod.
A Kasich spokesman said the naysaying only fuels the governor further. "With so many states still to go, and the map becoming increasingly Kasich-friendly, there's little doubt we will be going all the way to Cleveland, said the spokesman, Rob Nichols. The same people trying to write us off at the convention were also trying to write us off for the first debate, for New Hampshire, after South Carolina and countless other times. How'd that work out? We're very comfortable with our place, our strategy and our future."
In that vein, Kasich's campaign foreshadowed its plans for a convention brawl late Tuesday, naming Stu Spencer and Charlie Black two veterans of the last contested convention, the 1976 fight between President Gerald Ford and an insurgent Ronald Reagan to his national strategy team.
Tom Rath, a Kasich adviser from New Hampshire and veteran of the Republican convention process, said Trump and Cruzs advisers may be overlooking the role of politics at the convention. If a contested convention arrives, and Kasich is dramatically outpolling Trump and Cruz against Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, convention delegates may make judgments based on political calculus.
Its a political convention and sooner or later, the realities of the moment politically, which we cannot foresee now, will overwhelm all the process in the world, Rath said. You cannot make a judgment about what could happen until you know the political context within which that action is happening.
Charlie Dent, a Pennsylvania Republican Congressman and Kasich supporter, added that convention delegates must consider who can win in November as part of their process. The rule of the party is to make sure to advance the best candidate for the general election. I think all the delegates are going to have to sit down and think this through very carefully.
Rath said that if Trump and Cruz are unable to break a deadlock to hand one of them the nomination, convention delegates can suspend their rules including the eight-state threshold to give other candidates the chance to put their names forward. Paul Ryan, who as House speaker presides over the convention, would preside over that process and his determinations on suspending convention rules could carry the day. Rath added that a deadlocked situation could also elevate Kasich as critical tie breaker perhaps the key to assembling a winning coalition.
Morton Blackwell, a Republican national committeeman from Pennsylvania who has attended every national convention since 1964, said he foresaw the obstacle that the rules would cause and pressed to revise them at a meeting in January, before any primary contests had been held. He was ultimately shot down. He says hes concerned that any attempt to lower the threshold now at the expense of Trump and Cruz would be viewed as an attempt by insiders to rig the convention against the two anti-establishment candidates.
Reintroducing it now would be a cause of war, he said. I dont want the scandal of a change in the rules I think were much more likely to lose if theres an attempt to change the rules no matter who it helps or hurts.
Poster Comment:
Ron Paul's not around to screw anymore, so they're doing Kasich in '16.
They're working for Hillary.
Here, we see Hillary being "blessed" by a Native American shaman, RNC(15 images)
In addition, a rule adopted at the 2012 convention pushed by supporters of Mitt Romney to box out Ron Paul
Ahhh,proof that what comes around,goes around. Suck it,globalist RINO whores!
ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
There is virtually zero chance he can even be nominated, Saul Anuzis, a former Michigan Republican national committeeman whos advising Cruz on his convention strategy, told POLITICO. Its a two-man race.
Sorry Cruzite it is now a one man race.
The media is not going to be able to keep the Cruz role in the Chicago riot that forced the cancelling of the Trump rally quiet for much longer.
Kasich thinks he will end up with the nomination. He is delusional!
Listening to Glen Beck right now. He & his krew of Toadys are also delusional! They are scrambling around imaginary numbers, that will add up to a Cruz win. Reminds me of stories of Hitler, when the Russian's were swarming into Berlin sending out orders to imaginary divisions that did not exist. Beck & his toadys have lost all touch with reality!
It is sad, but also hilarious.
If / when Trump wins, I suspect Beck & his crew will commit group suicide. Those boys seriously need help!
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur
Arizona is a winner take all state, if Donald wins it, it becomes mathematically impossible for Lyin Ted to win the nomination.
Beck killed Lyin Ted by threatening Donald's life and Cruz not denouncing it or beck apologizing in a convincing manner.
Now what needs to be done is to convince the ruling political class and their masters in the donor class, that to steal the nomination, to harm Donald, to do anything, will, as Gingrich said, cause Civil War.
They must be made to understand that this, is no idle threat.
To Lying Ted Cruz and his masters in the RNC, the GOP and the Establishment. Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
You, Ted Cruz, and all of the ruling political class and your masters in the Donor Class, have forgotten your history lessons on the French Revolution.
Do not for even one minute think that we, the Three Percent, are any less committed, any less willing to fight, kill and if needs be die. Don't for an instant think that we are any less determined.
We are willing to give this election cycle it's chance, but may God have mercy on your souls if you in any way derail this effort to restore the Republic thru the ballot box.
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, and like the ruling political class and their masters in the 'donor' class in pre 1789 France, your heads will roll and if you, by some miracle, escape, you will never return.
Nope, not unless lyin ted can get a SCOTUS opinion that he is a Natural born citizen of the USA.
Lyin Ted lied on his application to work for the court and to practice before the court, he does not want to go back before them, they settle grudges in very unique and, in most cases, devastating ways.
I doubt that Trump will name Cruz his running mate, but if he finds he needs to to win, he will. And then you'll face a choice. You think Cruz is ineligible. I don't.
So, will you vote for Trump and take the chance that somebody you think is ineligible could take office if something happens to Trump, or will you stand aside and risk President Hillary?
I love how you dedicated Christians are rallying around a fellow devout Christian like Trump.
What do you admire about him? The way he never lies? The way he cheats people by running scams? His bragging about having sex with married women?
ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
Pete, Cruz is a lair, plain and simple cult leading liar.
And Trump isn't even worse? Trump makes Bubbette! appear to be honest by comparison.
ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
Of course I hate the Republican Party, as any decent human being should.
But Trump is remaking the Republican Party into something that is much better.
I don't like the idea of Trump/Cruz, or Trump/Kasich, but he has to have a VP, and those two each offer something. Kasich offers more, so I think it should be him. Trump/Christie wouldn't be terrible either.
But Trump is remaking the Republican Party into something that is much better.
In your dreams. Trump has destroyed the REP Party. Something will undoubtedly come out of the ashes but it will not be anything formidable. The DRats will have full, uncontested control of all three branches of government and will reign in Orwellian, Nazi like fashion.
I have yet to find a verifiable lie told by Donald, yet Cruz, the money grubbing Beck lap dog cannot seem to ever tell the truth, and he may not be even a legal US Citizen.
Not done with this yet, but getting close, have a sneak peak:
I have yet to find a verifiable lie told by Donald,
And you never will. The one thing True Believers are good at is truly believing.
ISLAM MEANS SUBMISSION!
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.