The Establishments war on Donald Trump
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Title: Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump
Source:
FiveThirtyEight.com
URL Source: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features ... tives-will-rally-behind-trump/
Published: Feb 29, 2016
Author: Nate Silver
Post Date: 2016-03-01 08:21:50 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 2104
Comments: 21
Major partisan realignments do happen in America — on average about once every 40 years. The last one, which involved the unwinding of the New Deal coalition between Northern and Southern Democrats, is variously dated as having occurred in 1968, 1972 and 1980. There are also a lot of false alarms, elections described as realignments that turn out not to be. This time, we really might be in the midst of one. It’s almost impossible to reconcile this year’s Republican nomination contest with anyone’s notion of “politics as usual.” If a realignment is underway, then it poses a big empirical challenge. Presidential elections already suffer from the problem of small sample sizes — one reason a lot of people, certainly including us, shouldn’t have been so dismissive of Trump’s chances early on. Elections held in the midst of political realignments are even rarer, however. The rules of the old regime — the American political party system circa 1980 through 2012 — might not apply in the new one. And yet, it’s those elections that inform both the conventional wisdom and statistical models of American political behavior. This doesn’t necessarily mean we’ll be completely in the dark. For one thing, the polls — although there’s reason to be concerned about their condition in the long-term — have been reasonably accurate so far in the primaries. And some of the old rules will still apply. It’s probably fair to guess that Pennsylvania and Ohio will vote similarly, for example. Still, one should be careful about one’s assumptions. For instance, the assumption that the parties will rally behind their respective nominees may or may not be reliable. True, recent elections have had very little voting across party lines: 93 percent of Republicans who voted in 2012 supported Romney, for example, despite complaints from the base that he was insufficiently conservative. And in November 2008, some 89 percent of Democrats who voted supported Barack Obama after his long battle with Hillary Clinton. But we may be entering a new era, and through the broader sweep of American history, there’s sometimes been quite a bit of voting across party lines. The table below reflects, in each election since 1952, what share of a party’s voters voted against their party’s presidential candidate (e.g., a Democrat voting Republican or for a third-party ticket). There’s a lot of fascinating political history embedded in the table, but one theme is that divisive nominations have consequences. Sources: Gallup (1952-1972), National Exit Polls (1976-2012) In 1972, for instance, about a third of Democrats voted for Richard Nixon rather than George McGovern, who won the Democratic nomination despite getting only about a quarter of the popular vote during the primaries. The Democrats’ tumultuous nomination process in 1968 was nearly as bad, with many defections to both Nixon and George Wallace. The 1964 Republican nomination of Barry Goldwater produced quite a few defections. Primary challenges to Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1992 presaged high levels of inter-party voting in November. There are also some exceptions; Republicans remained relatively united behind Gerald Ford in 1976 despite a primary challenge from Ronald Reagan. And there were high levels of Democratic unity behind Obama in 2008, although one can argue that a party having two good choices is a much lesser problem than it having none it can agree upon. Overall, however, the degree of party unity during the primaries is one of the better historical predictors of the November outcome. That could be a problem for Republicans whether they nominate Trump or turn around and nominate Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz or John Kasich; significant numbers of GOP voters are likely to be angry either way. It doesn’t necessarily mean that Republicans are bound to lose; I’d agree with David Plouffe’s assessment that a general election with Trump on the ballot is hard to predict and that Trump “could lose in a landslide or win narrowly.” But if I wouldn’t bet on an anti-Trump landslide, I’m also not sure I’d bet against one. The presumption that presidential elections are bound to be close is itself based on an uncomfortably small sample size: While three of the four elections since 2000 have been fairly close, most of them between 1952 and 1996 were not. Furthermore, the closeness of recent elections is partly a consequence of intense partisanship, which Trump’s nomination suggests may be fraying. The last partisan realignment, between about 1968 and 1980, produced both some highly competitive elections (1968, 1976) and some blowouts (1972, 1980). Although what voters do will ultimately be more important, it will also be worth watching how Republican Party elites behave and how much they unite behind Trump. On Twitter this weekend, there was a lot of activity behind the hashtag #NeverTrump, with various conservative intellectuals and operatives pledging that they’d refuse to support Trump in November. Rubio’s Twitter account employed the hashtag also, although Rubio himself has been ambiguous about whether he’d back Trump. It’s reasonably safe to say that some of the people in the #NeverTrump movement will, in fact, wind up supporting Trump. Clinton, very likely the Democratic nominee, is a divisive figure, and some anti-Trump conservatives will conclude that Trump is the lesser of two evils. Others will get caught up in the esprit de corps of the election. Some of them might be reassured by how Trump conducts himself during the general election campaign or whom he picks as his running mate. But I’d be equally surprised if there were total capitulation to Trump. Instead, I’d expect quite a bit of resistance from Republican elites. One thing this election has probably taught us is that there are fewer movement conservatives than those within the conservative movement might want to admit. Rank-and-file Republican voters aren’t necessarily all that ideological, and they might buy into some of the Republican platform while rejecting other parts of it. They might care more about Trump’s personality than his policy views. But there are certainly some movement conservatives, and they have outsized influence on social media, talk radio, television and in other arenas of political discourse. And if you are a movement conservative, Trump is arguably a pretty terrible choice, taking your conservative party and remaking it in his unpredictable medley of nationalism, populism and big-government Trumpism. If you’re one of these ideological conservatives, it may even be in your best interest for Trump to lose in November. If Trump loses, especially by a wide margin, his brand of politics will probably be discredited, or his nomination might look like a strange, one-off “black swan” that you’ll be better equipped to prevent the next time around. You’ll have an opportunity to get your party back in 2020, and your nominee might stand a pretty decent chance against Clinton, who could be elected despite being quite unpopular because Trump is even less popular and who would be aiming for the Democratic Party’s fourth straight term in office. But if Trump wins in November, you might as well relocate the Republican National Committee’s headquarters to Trump Tower. The realignment of the Republican Party will be underway, and you’ll have been left out of it. If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination, he’ll have undermined a lot of assumptions we once held about the GOP. He’ll have become the nominee despite neither being reliably conservative nor being very electable, supposedly the two things Republicans care most about. He’ll have done it with very little support from “party elites” (although with some recent exceptions like Chris Christie). He’ll have attacked the Republican Party’s three previous candidates — Mitt Romney, John McCain and George W. Bush — without many consequences. If a Trump nomination happens, it will imply that the Republican Party has been weakened and is perhaps even on the brink of failure, unable to coordinate on a plan to stop Trump despite the existential threat he poses to it. ELECTION DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS 1952 23% 8% 1956 15 4 1960 16 5 1964 13 20 1968 26 14 1972 33 5 1976 20 11 1980 33 15 1984 26 7 1988 17 8 1992 23 27 1996 15 19 2000 13 9 2004 11 7 2008 11 10 2012 8 7
Poster Comment:
We'll see how Silver, the top poll-reading guru, fares in tonight's primary results.
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My own prediction, before the poll results are in:
Trump is speaking clearly to the bottom 50% of the America. They have gotten a raw deal from the current economic structures of the country, and that deal will never get better unless there is a revolutionary change of objectives.
Trump offers that change: American jobs for Americans, but closing the border to immigration and deporting illegals - freeing up jobs, and by tarriffs on China to bring manufacturing jobs home, and by tax reductions aimed at repatriating money abroad, to rebuild American industry.
I think this will bring out a wave of new voters, discouraged blue collar people who now have a representative. It will bring a big Democrat crossover vote.
And plenty of Republicans will also vote for Trump, even if the Bush wing remains aloof and supports Rubio's kamikaze mission (which will half- succeed: Rubio IS committing political suicide, but he's not scratching the paint on the good ship Trump.
A majoritarian sector of the electorate that has been screwed as awakened, and is filled with resolve to elect Trump. So they will.
If Trump takes Texas tonight, I'm right.
#2. To: All (#1)
If Trump takes Texas tonight, it will be partly because of crossover Democrats, which was the same reason Reagan won in 1980, and the same reason that Trump, the nominee, will crush Hillary in a landslide in November.
It's the end of Rubio's and McConnell's and Graham's political careers. They backed the wrong horse and were assholes about it. When Trump wins, he will be sure to cleanse the party of his enemies. And he will define his enemies as those who work against him once he's the nominee. Obama understands Trump, which is why he will pardon Hillary on his way out the door. Because Trump has said he'll indict Hillary, and he will. To those who say that the President doesn't indict, the Attorney General does, the answer is that the AG is chosen by and works for the President, and Trump will fire any AG or any other cabinet member, who doesn't do his will.
#3. To: TooConservative (#0)
"He’ll have become the nominee despite neither being reliably conservative nor being very electable ..."
Reliably conservative as defined how? Dole? McCain? Romney? Boehner? Ryan?
If they are the faces of reliable conservatism, then thank God Trump isn't one.
Electable? Look at the polls. Look at the crowds. Listen to the liberals as they go batshit crazy.
Trump is not electable so who does the GOP have in mind? Romney. A proven loser.
#4. To: misterwhite (#3)
" Reliably conservative as defined how? Dole? McCain? Romney? Boehner? Ryan?If they are the faces of reliable conservatism, then thank God Trump isn't one.
Electable? Look at the polls. Look at the crowds. Listen to the liberals as they go batshit crazy.
Trump is not electable so who does the GOP have in mind? Romney. A proven loser. "
BINGO !!
Well worth repeating !
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
A friend will help you move ,But a good friend will help you move a body..
#5. To: TooConservative (#0)
" Don’t Assume Conservatives Will Rally Behind Trump "
Wishful thinking by establishment types.
Maybe GOPe types should not assume that they won't.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
A friend will help you move ,But a good friend will help you move a body..
#6. To: Vicomte13 (#1)
If Trump takes Texas tonight, I'm right.
You'll certainly have more force to your argument.
#7. To: misterwhite (#3)
Reliably conservative as defined how? Dole? McCain? Romney? Boehner? Ryan?
I would say as measured by conservative mainstays in Congress and in the Right blogosphere and conservative pundits.
We're not talking about personalities but about purist ideology.
#8. To: TooConservative (#7)
"I would say as measured by conservative mainstays in Congress and in the Right blogosphere and conservative pundits."
Conservatives as defined by, you know, conservatives.
That doesn't help.
#9. To: TooConservative (#0)
hashtag #NeverTrump, with various conservative intellectuals and operatives pledging that they’d refuse to support Trump in November
Hypocrites who had a hissy-fit when Trump declined to unconditionally support whomever the GOP elite nominated.
The Canadian Senator Raffie Cruz will take Texas and do well overall. Rubio will continue his lackluster performance and do poorly, and Trump will barely hang on fighting with John Kasich for 5th.
Behind the Rick Perry diehards.
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul#10. To: TooConservative (#0) (Edited)
I'll have a tough call to make if Cruz is knocked out . Until then I'll enjoy the Trump campaign musical. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OemqVWi_R0k
"If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato
#11. To: hondo68 (#9)
Trump will barely hang on fighting with John Kasich for 5th.
Funny you are, yes!
#12. To: Vicomte13 (#11)
" The Establishments war on Donald Trump "
Something that has me concerned.
All of the anti Trump, GOPe establishment types, and media types ( Glen Beck, Mark Levin, etc ) all attack Trump so viciously, and seemingly with so much hate. Yet, they have never attacked Obunghole, or any democrat with the same amount of vigor.
They all keep screaming " we have to fight, we have to fight!" But yet, they have never shown any degree of fight trying to stop Obunghole or the democrats.
They attack & denigrate Trump so vociferously, one would think that unbeknownst to us mere stupid people, and known only to " smart " people like them, that in reality Trump is surely the " Antichrist " and should be burned at the stake.
Some have started calling Trump supporters " cult followers ". Really? Judging from some of the pro Cruz supporters I hear calling their shows, they should look at themselves.
I understand that this is a primary. But to me the Anti Trump elements are off the rails of being rational, and does not bode well for the nation.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
A friend will help you move ,But a good friend will help you move a body..
#13. To: Stoner (#12)
But to me the Anti Trump elements are off the rails of being rational, and does not bode well for the nation.
Don't worry about it too much.
They are all screaming bloody murder because they are losing power, standing and influence, and they know it.
Trump is emerging with a new coalition, one built on different concerns and principles than the one that it is plowing under.
The one that is being plowed under, the GOP Establishment media - GOPe, Beck, Levin, etc.: they failed. That's the bottom line: their legacy is abject failure.
The people want something new, and nothing can or will stop them.
#14. To: Vicomte13 (#13) (Edited)
" Don't worry about it too much. "
I don't. After all, it is what it is. What ever happens, happens!
But, I just thought it was noteworthy. I think everyone should recognize this, and take note of their stance. Many of they that claim to be "conservative" appear to be "wolves" in sheep clothing. Not to be trusted!
They are perpetuating a continuing fracture in the country, at a time we need to be uniting. Their actions are not in the best interest of the nation.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't
Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
There are no Carthaginian terrorists.
President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
A friend will help you move ,But a good friend will help you move a body..
#15. To: Stoner (#14)
For my part, I like what is shaping up.
Trump has a good set of foreign policy objectives. And those will save us a ton of money. So if all he can get done is THAT, it will make a huge difference.
#16. To: Vicomte13 (#15)
Look his foriegn policy objectives are a beggar your neighbour policy; force Mexico to build a wall, it isn't even an employment program and make silly threats to Daesh, he will embrace Putin in the new Europen greater prosperity conclave while keeping migration to a minimum and flooding third wolrd countries with unwanted returns. Yes his foriegn policy is a step "forward"
#17. To: paraclete (#16)
Yes his foriegn policy is a step "forward"
Yes indeed it is.
Fortunately, Trump's policy is not the stupid caricature you've presented.
#18. To: Vicomte13 (#17)
Trump's policy is not the stupid caricature you've presented.
Actually he presented a stupid caricature of foriegn policy himself, why antagonise foriegn countries for a few cheers from the faithful, very, very DUMB, Mr. Donald Dump
#19. To: paraclete (#18)
Foreign countries will always be antagonized by the very idea of Americans putting America number one.
#20. To: Vicomte13 (#19)
Foreign countries will always be antagonized by the very idea of Americans putting America number one.
I think that is a foolish attitude, when america was protectionist, we all had industries and full employment. Since america embarked on this free trade nonsense we all have unemployment, what we want is for america to stop adopting beggar my neighbour policies and trying to impose their ideas and products on others. You are right that you antagonise other nations with your aggression and militarism
#21. To: paraclete (#20)
I think that is a foolish attitude
Well, then there's no point in us talking further, is there?
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