LF: Donald Trump Falls Behind Ted Cruz in National NBC/WSJ Poll (Canadian Surge)

Title: Donald Trump Falls Behind Ted Cruz in National NBC/WSJ Poll (Canadian Surge)
Source: NBC News
URL Source: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-pre ... -national-nbc-wsj-poll-n520296
Published: Feb 18, 2016
Author: Mark Murray
Post Date: 2016-02-18 15:29:26 by Hondo68
Keywords: None
Views: 1856
Comments: 15

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump has fallen behind Ted Cruz in the national GOP horserace, according to a brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

In the poll, Cruz is the first choice of 28 percent of Republican primary voters, while Trump gets 26 percent. They're followed by Marco Rubio at 17 percent, John Kasich at 11 percent, Ben Carson at 10 percent and Jeb Bush at 4 percent.

NBC News

The results from the poll — conducted after Trump's victory in New Hampshire and Saturday's GOP debate in South Carolina — are a significant reversal from last month, when Trump held a 13-point lead over Cruz, 33 percent to 20 percent.

Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart and his firm Hart Research Associates, says Trump's drop could signal being "right on top of a shift in the campaign."

"When you see a number this different, it means you might be right on top of a shift in the campaign. What you don't know yet is if the change is going to take place or if it is a momentary 'pause' before the numbers snap back into place," he said.

McInturff added, "So, one poll post-Saturday debate can only reflect there may have been a 'pause' as Republican voters take another look at Trump. This happened earlier this summer and he bounced back stronger. We will have to wait this time and see what voters decide."

This poll comes after other surveys — both nationally and in South Carolina, the site of Saturday's next Republican contest — show Trump with a commanding lead. But some of those weren't conducted entirely after the last debate like the NBC/WSJ poll.

Cruz Talks to NBC News About Facing off With Trump, Uniting Conservatives","description":"Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz sits down with NBC News' Hallie Jackson between campaign stops in South Carolina.

Another possible explanation for Trump's decline in the new NBC/WSJ poll is an increase in "very conservative" Republican voters from January's sample.

If the current poll is re-weighted to reflect the ideological composition from last month, the GOP horserace numbers are: Trump 26 percent, Cruz 25 percent, Rubio 18 percent and Kasich 13 percent — so Trump is ahead by one point, but still down from January.

In addition to Trump's decline in the GOP race, the new NBC/WSJ poll shows a nine-point drop in the percentage of GOP primary voters who can see themselves supporting the real-estate mogul — from 65 percent in January to 56 percent now.

The highest candidate scores on this scale: Rubio (70 percent can see themselves supporting him), Cruz (65 percent), Carson (62 percent), Trump (56 percent), Kasich (49 percent) and Bush (46 percent).

Trump: 'Someone at the WSJ Doesn't Like Me'

And in hypothetical one-on-one match ups, Trump trails both Cruz (56 percent to 40 percent) and Rubio (57 percent to 41 percent). In January, Trump was ahead of Rubio (by 7 points) but behind Cruz (by 8 points).

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Feb. 14-16 of 800 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.5 percentage points) and 400 GOP primary voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9 percentage points).

Here are full results of the poll.

Well, this sets up a nice dichotomy. There is this poll. There's the other polls. And there's the actual voting very soon.

If the actual voting reflects this poll, then the WSJ will look like geniuses. If it reflects the other pools, the WSJ will look like incompetent tools.

Which way is the wind blowing today? Polls are only good for telling you the direction the wind is blowing in, not for predicting outcomes. With a margin of error of 4% any difference between Crump and Cruze is a statistical error

Well, we've had two mentally deficient lamebrains, a sex obsessed psychopath, and a Kenyan by way of SE Asian islamic madrasses thrust upon us, now get ready to choose between a new crew of professional liars with Spanish last names claiming to be conservatives shoved up our behinds. Things won't change much.

Is there a practical difference in destructiveness between them and the previously mentioned or the rank and file establishment Repubicans?

No. That is why I will probably sit this election out, a certainly will do so if is Hillary and Trump.

Trump just has a Rubio moment at the Town Hall when he refused to answer whether he believes Bush knew that Saddam did not have WDMs and lied about it as a pretext to go to war. His worshippers, such as you, don't GAS but most other REP will.

Then you'll get free trader Goldman Cruz or open borders Rubio as your nominee, and Hillary Clinton as your President.

Trump is a shill for Hillary. If he had to he would make sure that he did something to assure that he lost to her. It's a charade of the highest order and you have bought into it. I hear Barnum laughing his ass off.

What do you the likelihood is for a four way race in the general election of Hillary (D), Trump (3rd party), either Cruz or Rubio (R) and Bloomberg (4th party)?

It's very late for Trump to go 3rd party or for Bloomberg to. Those two options may be the only thing that can defeat Hitlery.

Neither Trump or Bloomberg is likely to play Perot to the tune of half a billion or more.

I still think we're overwhelmingly likely to come down to a classic D-vs-R election.