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Title: Shock PPP national poll: Trump 25, Cruz 21, Rubio 21
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/ ... oll-trump-25-cruz-21-rubio-21/
Published: Feb 4, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-02-04 14:17:37 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1542
Comments: 17
It’s true, national polls are almost totally worthless — but that never stopped Trump from crowing about them at his rallies, and after a surprising result in Iowa they can be helpful in detecting whether there really has been a change in voter sentiment that might show up next week in New Hampshire. If you believe PPP, Marcomentum is real and Trump may well be on his way down the drain. Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race. He’s up 8 points from his 13% standing in our poll right before Christmas. Beyond that he’s seen a large spike in his favorability rating- it’s improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side. Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters. All of those numbers will change yet again, of course, if Trump holds on in New Hampshire, which I think he will. The table below isn’t good for him, though. Bear in mind that Cruz and Rubio are both net favorable among nearly every other candidate’s supporters, meaning that if either one of them ends up in a two-man race with Trump, they’re looking good: Rubio also does well as the second choice of supporters of Jeb Bush and John Kasich, both of whom are likely to be out soon: On the other hand, Cruz cleans up among fans of Ben Carson, who’s also likely to be out soon. Interestingly, Christie fans prefer Cruz to Rubio as a second choice, which may be the product of butthurt over his fade in New Hampshire or may be statistical noise due to a small subsample. One more result for you. Here’s what happens when other candidates’ voters are forced to choose between Rubio and Cruz. I remind you again that national polls are useless, as Cruz will/would obviously do better than these numbers in his southern strongholds, which are coming up on March 1st. (Much better if Trump’s not in the race at that point.) Don’t forget, though, that Rubio’s playing a long game, eyeing the more moderate electorates that’ll show up for winner-take-all primaries when blue-state Republicans start voting later this spring. He may outperform these numbers in those strongholds, which will be trouble for Cruz. But that’s all too far in the future. What about New Hampshire? Rubio inched up to 15 percent there in the latest poll, his best showing in weeks, but Trump’s still at 36 percent. Even if you allow for a “Trump effect” in the polls, where Trump’s support is systematically overstated by, say, five points, Rubio still has to make up more than 15 points in the next five days. And he has to do it with basically everyone in the field not only attacking him but forging alliances to attack him: While emails, texts and phone calls between operatives in rival campaigns are not uncommon in the tight-knit world of political strategists, the contact between senior aides in the two campaigns has drifted toward musings about what can be done to stop or at least slow Mr. Rubio, the operatives said. In a sign of a budding alliance, the aides have, for example, exchanged news articles that raise potential areas of vulnerability for Mr. Rubio. There is no formal coordination, the operatives stressed, but rather a recognition of a shared agenda… A division of labor seems to have taken hold. While a well-financed “super PAC” supporting Mr. Bush assails Mr. Rubio on television and in the mail (it will release a new batch of ads on Thursday), Mr. Christie has stepped up the critiques on the campaign trail. The latest joint Bush/Christie production is to attack Rubio for being unelectable because he’s … too hardline on abortion. So Rubio’s not too establishment for a Republican primary? He’s actually … too conservative? Admittedly, any attack by Bush or Christie will seem feeble because they have the stench of death around them, but I don’t get Christie’s “boy in the bubble” takedown and I don’t see how abortion is the magic bullet that destroys Rubio’s vaunted electability. All Republican candidates will be attacked as “anti-woman,” whatever the nuances of their positions on exceptions for rape. If you want to stop Rubio, you’re best off hitting him for lacking experience — which Christie and Bush are both doing, wisely — and for his great heresy on immigration. But Jeb can’t do that because he’s knee-deep in amnesty too, and no one believes Christie when he pretends to be offended by the Gang of Eight. The dilemma for Bush, Kasich, and Christie is that, while Rubio may be establishment, he’s still less establishment than they are even with the immigration bill chained to his ankles. How do you beat him in New Hampshire from the left? Poster Comment: Live by the polls, die by the polls. The second-choice questions on where Carson's and Christie's supporters will go if they drop out are interesting. Cruz’s numbers here aren’t a shock — he’s been in the high teens and low twenties for awhile — but Trump hasn’t dipped as low as 25 percent in a national poll since November and Rubio hasn’t seen a number as high as 21 percent since … ever. That makes some righty poll-watchers nervous since PPP’s credibility has been attacked in the past. Not only are they liberal, they were the subject of a famous critique of their methodology by Nate Cohn in TNR a few years ago. If you’re looking to throw out this result, which no other pollster has captured, there you go. On the other hand, RCP finds them credible enough to include them in their poll average. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight site also deems PPP worthy of being rated (a B- for accuracy). I’ve been writing up their polls all primary season long, including ones that showed Trump soaring. If you accepted their other polls at face value, why start ignoring them now? Trump’s 25% standing reflects a 9 point drop from our last national poll, which was taken the week before Christmas. It reflects an overall decline in Trump’s popularity with GOP voters. Trump’s favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24 standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the right- he’s dropped to 3rd place with ‘very conservative’ voters at 19% with Cruz at 34% and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and ‘somewhat conservative’ voters to give him the overall advantage. 
Members of the Bush and Christie campaigns have communicated about their mutual desire to halt Mr. Rubio’s rise in the polls, according to Republican operatives familiar with the conversations.
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#1. To: All, tomder55, hondo68 (#0)
I'll sue!!!
Bonjour, Madame Presidente.
I wouldn't throw myself off a bridge just yet. It is PPP after all. Strangely enough, PPP is one of the handful of pollsters that has some track record and a little credibility, far more than these other new also-ran nobody polling outfits that surfaced in the last year or so. I think Rubio does have an opening. And Trump running off to NH to start crying about the IA outcome will not be appealing to NH voters who expect this to be their moment with the candidates, not hear Trump raving about how Cruz stole Iowa from him because he is a Canadian anchor baby. Though Donald then tells us there's no such thing as an anchor baby in Canada. Except maybe there used to be. No one can decipher Trump's attack. But NH is a jealous bitch and wants to be courted, not listen to Trump wailing incoherently that he got cuckolded by Canucki anchor-baby Cruz with those whorish Iowa voters. Trump is getting torpedoed because he won't hire decent staff because he's too damn cheap and thinks that early polls are all he needs. And he's now facing two well-prepared and expert political machines in both Cruz and Rubio, both of whom clawed their way to the Senate against the opposition of the Beltway GOPe.
If I was advising Trump, I would advise he keep hammering on immigration, the wall, restrict muslims, better trade deals, reducing size of federal govt. He should quit attacking the other republicans. Keep hammering Obunghole, Hillary & Bernie. And quit talking about doing deals with Democrats.
Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
I suspect Trump got to where he is by learning from his mistakes. If he will do so now, time will tell. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
I'll sue!!! If they start claiming Rubio is "severely conservative", they're lying for sure! You may need to change your handle to... the REAL TC. Yeb! and Blubber Boy seem to be saying that not killing a few babies is, too conservative. An extension of W's "no child left I see the GOP elites are moving Rubio up in the polls. I think Carson and Rubio are fighting for the same people. Easily swayed by pubs. Many of the Carson voters like him just because he is black. He would be a terrible president because he would be eaten alive by the MSM and the elites. Rubio is being breed to be the next bush with all the financing to go with it. Jeb, well he is there to be be the punching bag and keep Rubio from being hurt. Lady Lyndsey just wasn't cutting it as a punching bag. I got to tell you I will not vote for Rubio. It would be another bush presidency which means more of the same. The only 3 I would have voted for are as preferred in order Cruz, Paul and Trump. And Rand never really had a chance.
It's their only play with Bush out of the running. I don't think that Kasich or Christie really stood a chance with the GOPe. They always loved Rubio for his shamnesty attempt. Supposedly, a Latino nominee means that the GOPe can just replace you completely. You would become just another voter they could care less about. The Dims did this already to their white male voters.
Rubio's an anchor baby. Neither of his parents were U.S. citizens at the time of his birth. You call this "natural born"? What's next? Some ISIS chick gives birth on U.S. soil and her spawn can be President?
Not according to the article I just posted. Of course, it is possible that Trump will be right and he'll win NH and then SC. However, taking a whole day for Arkansas, blathering about Iowa, and now going to South Carolina is taking his lead in New Hampshire for granted. And New Hampshire is a jealous, heartless bitch. Trifle with her tender affections at your own peril. Again, Trump shows no sign he understands anything about retail politics or the long primary process.
It doesn't matter what you or I call it. It is what the Congress passes in statute to define "natural-born" and what the Court allows. And the Court has always been extremely reluctant to take the matter up in any form. In short, yes. As an example, the infant child of the two San Bernardino terrorists. Who would have about as much chance getting elected prez as the Rosenberg children have.
Never say never. If people will elect Al Franken, they'll elect anyone.
Yeah, did not seem like a real astute move! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
Trump really has to think he's got NH totally in the bag. NH is his bitch. Otherwise, why would he risk pissing off NH voters by Arkansas and then South Carolina? NH only gets a short season in the week after Iowa's caucus. It's not good to avoid retail politicking in all the usual political haunts in NH. Arkansas especially makes no sense at this point. I know he met with Huck privately before the Iowa caucus so maybe he was hoping for an endorsement but Huck said he won't endorse, at least not yet. So why Arkansas? Makes no sense at all. You don't see the other campaigns doing stuff this dumb except for Carson skipping a day in NH and then taking another day for the prayer breakfast in D.C. That tells NH voters that you want to skip 1 or 2 days out of the week available to campaign in NH. None of the other campaigns are doing this. They are out, campaigning the crap out of every burg and hamlet in NH.
I don't know. I think Trump is real smart, but I suspect he has over estimated his smarts on some things. I think he has a LOT to learn about politics. He needs to be smart enough to know that he is not infinitely smart about everything, and get himself some real sharp political advisers, and listen to them. Just make sure he does not get a Karl Rove. After all, when building his skyscrapers, I am sure he surrounded himself with top experts such as architects, structural engineers, electricians, plumbers, etc, etc, etc. and he did not try to do all of those functions himself. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God. There are no Carthaginian terrorists. President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood
Of course. But running for prez isn't much like a real estate project or one of his deals where he rents out his brand name to another company. I think he is operating as his own campaign manager. We saw Scott Walker try to do that too. It never seems to work well. Jimmuh Carter was famous for trying to micromanage everything personally once he got elected, Nixon was a bit that way too. Despicable as the consultant and election specialist class is, the winning campaigns use them to get an edge on the competition. Trump won't even lay out the money so his staff (second-raters that other campaigns never hired) has enough info to organize voter targeting and GOTV efforts. Trump thinks the free media will last forever. Well, it won't. He'll have to pay and pay big for airtime, once he ever gets the nomination. No way the networks and the local affiliates give away that much free airtime. Not even FNC will give him that much free time.
What's not to like about Karl Rove? This is an excellent example of how much of DC is literally sick in the head. Wouldn't Thomas Jefferson be proud of this jackass? Hamilton probably would! "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall"- Proverbs 16:18
Article: "So Rubio’s not too establishment for a Republican primary? He’s actually … too conservative?"
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
If you believe PPP, Marcomentum is real and Trump may well be on his way down the drain.
#3. To: Vicomte13, tomder55 (#2)
#4. To: TooConservative (#0)
#5. To: TooConservative (#3)
" Trump is getting torpedoed because he won't hire decent staff because he's too damn cheap and thinks that early polls are all he needs. "
#6. To: TooConservative, The REAL TooConservative, compassionate conservatives, no child left alive, bushbot neocons, anti human (#1)
He’s actually … too conservative?"
behind alive" policy? 
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#7. To: TooConservative (#0)
#8. To: Justified (#7)
I see the GOP elites are moving Rubio up in the polls.
I got to tell you I will not vote for Rubio. It would be another bush presidency which means more of the same.
#9. To: TooConservative (#8)
#10. To: Stoner (#5)
(Edited)
I suspect Trump got to where he is by learning from his mistakes. If he will do so now, time will tell.
#11. To: misterwhite (#9)
(Edited)
Rubio's an anchor baby. Neither of his parents were U.S. citizens at the time of his birth. You call this "natural born"?
What's next? Some ISIS chick gives birth on U.S. soil and her spawn can be President?
#12. To: TooConservative (#11)
"Who would have about as much chance getting elected prez as the Rosenberg children have."
#13. To: TooConservative (#10)
" taking a whole day for Arkansas "
#14. To: Stoner (#13)
Yeah, did not seem like a real astute move!
#15. To: TooConservative (#14)
#16. To: Stoner (#15)
After all, when building his skyscrapers, I am sure he surrounded himself with top experts such as architects, structural engineers, electricians, plumbers, etc, etc, etc. and he did not try to do all of those functions himself.
#17. To: Stoner (#15)
Just make sure he does not get a Karl Rove.
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."-Karl Rove https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reality-based_community
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