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Freepers Still Love war Parody ... Jump / Trump --- van Halen jump "The Democrat Meltdown Continues" "Yes, We Need Deportations Without Due Process" "Trump's Tariff Play Smart, Strategic, Working" "Leftists Make Desperate Attempt to Discredit Photo of Abrego Garcia's MS-13 Tattoos. 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What Happens Inside Gaza’s Secret Tunnels? | Unpacked Hamas Torture Bodycam Footage: "These Monsters Filmed it All" | IDF Warfighter Doron Keidar, Ep. 225 EXPOSED: The Dark Truth About the Hostages in Gaza New Task Force Ready To Expose Dark Secrets Egypt Amasses Forces on Israel’s Southern Border | World War 3 About to Start? "Trump wants to dismantle the Education Department. Here’s how it would work" test "Federal Workers Concerned That Returning To Office Will Interfere With Them Not Working" "Yes, the Democrats Have a Governing Problem – They Blame America First, Then Govern Accordingly" "Trump and His New Frenemies, Abroad and at Home" "The Left’s Sin Is of Omission and Lost Opportunity" "How Trump’s team will break down the woke bureaucracy" Pete Hegseth will be confirmed in a few minutes Status: Not Logged In; Sign In politics and politicians See other politics and politicians Articles Title: 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll [Rubio surges] Source: WHDH-Manchester URL Source: http://www.whdh.com/story/31137507/ ... -hampshire-tracking-poll-day-4 Published: Feb 4, 2016 Author: Andy Hiller Post Date: 2016-02-04 09:00:50 by Tooconservative Keywords: None Views: 752 Comments: 15 Hiller Instinct: 7News/UMass Lowell New Hampshire tracking poll day 4 MANCHESTER, N.H. (WHDH) - It's not an earthquake, yet...But the political ground in New Hampshire is moving. We're seeing more of Iowa's impact, and the war of words underway here. Donald Trump stays in first, with 36%; Rubio takes over second place, with 15%. Ted Cruz, now in third, has 14%. Jeb Bush, 8%; and John Kasich 7%. For the rest of the Republicans: Chris Christie, 5 %, Ben Carson, 4%; Carly Fiorina 3% and undecided 8%. Our tracking poll show its all: Trump on top, but down two points-- the first time he's dropped in our poll. Marco Rubio shoots into second place, with 15%, a gain of three points overnight. Ted Cruz holds his support, but slips into third place. Jeb Bush lost a point; no change for John Kasich. In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton can start thinking about a comeback, and Bernie Sanders is coming down. Sanders still has a significant lead over Clinton-- 58% to 36%-- a 22 point margin. But look at the direction of the tracks: Sanders is down three and Clinton is up four, our biggest single gain since we started this poll. You see the trends, and so will the candidates. They're good for Rubio and Clinton... and not very good for anyone else. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders need to win big here, and our tracking poll shows both are losing ground right now. This time next week, we'll know the winners. Between now and then, this is the best way to see who's going to win. Click for Full Text! Poster Comment: A video with a few more details on Hillary rising some against Sanders and other results can be viewed at WHDH's website. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest #1. To: TooConservative (#0) "Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders need to win big here" Oh, baloney. Here's the MSM at it again. Now if Trump wins, but doesn't win big, the MSM will announce Trump as failing. Just as in Iowa, where they had Trump in second place. 7 days before the caucus they put Trump in first. When Trump came in second, they announced it as a huge loss. misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   9:47:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #2. To: TooConservative (#0) All of the very sizeable Bush influence and machine is lining up behind their stooge, Rubio. Rubio is not a Natural Born Citizen, while he was born in the USA, both of his parents did not become naturalized citizens till he was two years old. To be a Natural Born Citizen one must be three things. Born In the USA or a US Military base or US embassy. Mother a US Citizen at the time of birth. Father a US Citizen at the time of birth. Neither Cruz, who was born in Canada of a US mom and Canadian dad or Rubio who was born in the USA but neither parent was a US Citizen at the time of birth, qualifies. Eli, Eli, nai erchomai Kurios Iesous. BobCeleste  posted on  2016-02-04   9:50:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #3. To: misterwhite (#1) Oh, baloney. Here's the MSM at it again. Now if Trump wins, but doesn't win big, the MSM will announce Trump as failing. Rubio is trying to execute the classic 3-2-1 strategy. A third in IA, a second in NH, and a win in SC. That is a path to the nomination, to becoming the frontrunner and getting the backing of GOP donor class and the Beltway GOPe. Trump has done a lot to establish in most people's minds how important these polls are. So Trump has to live and die by every tick up or down in the polls. And, face it, what else can he really talk about other than how those Cuban anchor babies can't be trusted? The truth is that these polls are all very shaky, almost none of them have been around for even 4 years so they have no expertise or track record. And it's gotten much harder to find anyone willing to pick up the phone, maybe except for elderly shut-ins who have nothing better to do than answer the phone. And these polls find it hard to get under a 5% rate of error. The polls meant more when they could do enough polling to get down to 2% or 3% error. Just as in Iowa, where they had Trump in second place. 7 days before the caucus they put Trump in first. When Trump came in second, they announced it as a huge loss. This is an expectations game. Trump kept bragging up his polls, especially in Iowa. Then he underperforms his polling a bit and suddenly he looks weak, Cruz has a win and Rubio starts surging in New Hampshire. And the press coverage is always like a horse race. You know (or think you know) who the frontrunner is and that gets boring for the pundits to talk about. What is exciting? That dark horse candidate visibly moving up on that frontrunner. Never forget, it is always a horse race and a popularity contest and a lot of other undesirable things, as well as an exercise in the parties picking their nominees. Any damn fool can tell you one horse is faster than another but that doesn't keep them from watching the races with great excitement. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-02-04   10:13:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #4. To: TooConservative (#3) "Trump has done a lot to establish in most people's minds how important these polls are." He's admitted that the only reason he announces the polls at his rallies is because he's leading in them. I'm not aware that he considers any poll "important". I took issue with the author's statement that Trump needs to win big. No he doesn't. He needs to win, sure. But Cruz eked one out in Iowa and the press practically announced him as the Second Coming. misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   10:27:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: misterwhite, tomder55 (#4) But Cruz eked one out in Iowa and the press practically announced him as the Second Coming. No, it was Rubio who got the Second Coming treatment because...he overperformed his polling. He (or his staff) was savvy enough to have him ready with the attractive family to claim his near-tie for second place in Iowa with a nice short speech, all before the east coast went to bed so Rubio grabbed a lot of free publicity from the news channels and local TV news coverage. Smart play there. And Trump barely held on to second place, underperforming his polling. So you get the pundits with "And exactly why did you fail to win Iowa despite your polling, Mr. Trump? Was it because you didn't grasp the need to build a ground organization? Did voters switch away from you because you skipped that debate?". Et cetera. The uncomfortable questions write themselves. Smart pols always downplay their campaign to avoid this well-known pitfall. But then, Trump doesn't know what Trump doesn't know. And no one can tell him anything. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-02-04   10:35:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #6. To: TooConservative (#5) "And exactly why did you fail to win Iowa despite your polling, Mr. Trump?" If asked, he should simply say, "Which poll? The one two weeks ago that said I was in second place? Trump doesn't run the polls. These aren't his polls. Why are you attempting to make Trump responsible for shoddy polling by someone else? Why aren't you going after the polling companies for f**king up? misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   10:54:56 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #7. To: misterwhite (#6) Why are you attempting to make Trump responsible for shoddy polling by someone else? Trump is in control of managing (downplaying) expectations. Why aren't you going after the polling companies for f**king up? I constantly post about how lousy these polls really are and find articles on the topic to post here. And if I know how lousy these 2016 polls are, why doesn't Trump? It's not a deep secret to anyone who is following politics. Look at the huge failures of polling in the Israelis and British elections. The predicted "scientific" outcome was supposedly defeat for Bibi and Cameron. Right up to the minute when they both won by a landslide. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-02-04   11:25:40 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: TooConservative, misterwhite (#7) Look at the huge failures of polling in the Israelis and British elections. The predicted "scientific" outcome was supposedly defeat for Bibi and Cameron. Right up to the minute when they both won by a landslide. Perhaps the cheating is in the polling not the ballot box? потому что Бог хочет это тот путь SOSO  posted on  2016-02-04   11:29:38 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: TooConservative (#7) "I constantly post about how lousy these polls really are and find articles on the topic to post here." So then you agree the question, "And exactly why did you fail to win Iowa despite your polling, Mr. Trump?" is ridiculous? misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   11:43:05 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #10. To: SOSO (#8) "Perhaps the cheating is in the polling not the ballot box?" If the two fail to match up, I would certainly direct my questions to the former, rather than blame the candidate for the discrepancy. misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   11:46:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: SOSO (#8) Perhaps the cheating is in the polling not the ballot box? Certainly, one might suspect that the most viable conservative pols are a tempting target for dishonest pollsters with a Lefty political agenda. But I don't see where these pollsters who were anti-Bibi and anti-Cameron then come around providing glowing polls to support Trump, someone they likely despise more than Cameron and Bibi put together. Does that tell us that Trump is the secret favorite of the gloablist banksters or the CFR or Trilateralists or whatnot? I doubt it. You can't assume pollster malice and cunning when incompetence and people just not wanting to talk to pollsters any more can explain it just as easily. Occam's razor. Shave close.     : ) Tooconservative  posted on  2016-02-04   11:51:37 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: misterwhite (#9) So then you agree the question, "And exactly why did you fail to win Iowa despite your polling, Mr. Trump?" is ridiculous? Not at all. Trump himself built up these yuge expectations by bragging up his own polls (largely based on his near-100% name ID and celeb status). This is why I say "Trump lived by the polls and now he dies by the polls". Trump himself established to the public on dozens of occasions just how important his poll numbers are. And now you want to blame the press for being curious when Trump's poll numbers don't match his Iowa outcome? The libmedia trolls would not ignore a chance to "report" that story. And Trump, supposedly the media master, should have know that. Again, smart professional pols never play up expectations based on polls. Never. Trump made an elementary mistake. Like his mistakes in skipping the Iowa debate and being too cheap to spend the few million needed for top data services to help his ground staff organize the state. The staff -- no matter how professional -- does you no good if you won't buy them the data and the computers to use. And Trump was weak on the number of trained precinct captains too. He was lucky he didn't end up in third place in Iowa, IMO. Tooconservative  posted on  2016-02-04   11:57:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #13. To: TooConservative (#12) "and being too cheap to spend the few million needed for top data services to help his ground staff organize the state." His advisors didn't even want him to go to Iowa. "And now you want to blame the press for being curious when Trump's poll numbers don't match his Iowa outcome?" I don't blame the press for being curious. I blame the press for not asking the pollsters why they were wrong. Why ask Trump? WTF does he have to do with it? misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   12:08:50 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #14. To: TooConservative (#12) (Edited) "And now you want to blame the press for being curious when Tr Trump's poll numbers don't match his Iowa outcome?" Look at the graph below. Cruz was ahead before January 13th. Then, two weeks before the caucus, Trump gained the lead. And you say Trump has to explain that. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_ presidential_caucus-3194.html misterwhite  posted on  2016-02-04   12:16:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #15. To: TooConservative, misterwhite (#7) of course the smart candidate who is taking his candidacy seriously has internal polling done by people on the ground. But that means building a campaign ;something Trump evidently is not as good at doing as lending his name to someone elses building . "If you do not take an interest in the affairs of your government, then you are doomed to live under the rule of fools." Plato tomder55  posted on  2016-02-04   12:50:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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