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Title: Trump’s strongest Republican supporters: Registered Democrats?
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/12/ ... pporters-registered-democrats/
Published: Jan 1, 2016
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2016-01-01 14:49:58 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 5349
Comments: 29
That’s odd. What could Democrats possibly see in a lifelong true conservative like Donald Trump? There’s something for everyone in Nate Cohn’s new post. If you’re a Trump fan, here’s the smoking gun that he really is a new Reagan, the guy who’s going to broaden the tent and sweep to victory in November by bringing centrist Democrats into the GOP. If you’re a Trump critic, here’s further proof that he’s the RINO of RINOs, a man who’s blended nationalism, center-left economics, and Jacksonian foreign policy into something that tastes better to members of the other party than it does to conservatives. That sounds a lot like Perotism, frankly — except, according to the (Democratic) pollster who provided Cohn with data, Trump’s geographic support is the opposite of Perot’s. Perot did best in the west and in New England. Trump cleans up in the south, up through Appalachia, and into the industrial northeastern states like New York. How do you explain that? Cohn’s theory, comparing Trump’s map of support to a map of “racially charged Internet searches,” is that prejudice is driving some of his votes. There was nothing comparable in Perot’s campaign to Trump inveighing against rapists from Mexico and calling for a temporary ban on Muslims entering the United States. (There’s no disputing that Trump is the favored candidate of the white nationalists of the “alt-right.”) On the other hand, how many Trump voters in economically distressed industrial areas in the eastern U.S. like Trump’s immigration rhetoric because they “hate” Mexicans and how many simply want less competition from foreign labor in the name of bringing back jobs to America? According to Cohn, Trump’s best state is West Virginia; West Virginia also happens to be the only state in the U.S. where (as of March of this year) less than half of the adult civilian population is employed. Being a protectionist doesn’t make you a racist. Either way, though, this part is certainly true — and important to the future of the GOP: But during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters — a choice that means they’re included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not. Conn Carroll put it this way: — Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) December 31, 2015 Right. The GOP is gradually becoming older and whiter due to white Democrats crossing the aisle for various reasons — contempt for some Democratic welfare programs, disagreement with progressives on cultural flashpoints like gay marriage, righteous disgust for the left’s insistence on open borders, racial anxiety, and so forth. On “values” issues, that influx of culturally conservative Dems will help entrench the GOP (for a while, at least) as a socially right-wing party despite more centrist tendencies among younger Republicans. Economically, though, it seems likely to do the opposite: Trump’s gone a long, long way this year preaching protectionism and zealous defense of entitlements, and as the Democratic constituency within the GOP grows, other Republican pols will feel pressure to follow suit. The Reagan revolution was about convincing centrist Dems to try smaller government and deregulation; the Trump revolution is about convincing them that big government will work for them with Donald Trump in charge. A populist would say that that’s really no different than what we have now, with GOP candidates preaching Reaganism to get elected and then practicing Trumpism once in office — except it’s Trumpism for the donor class, not for blue-collar voters. Reaganism remains the party’s ideological guiding star, though, at least for the moment. If Trump has a long run this year thanks to centrist Democrats coming out to vote for him in Republican primaries, does that change? How do you build a conservative party if a significant chunk of it is Democratic? Or do we no longer care about conservatism so long as we’ve got nationalism? That’s the long-term problem. The short-term problem is one for Trump: How do you get these Democratic voters re-registered as Republicans and out to the polls in February? And if you’re Ted Cruz, how do you maintain your position as their second choice when you’re running as the staunchest conservative in the field? Maybe continuing to attack the “Washington cartel” without emphasizing too heavily how right-wing you are is enough. I’d be curious to see how Trump fans shake out, though, in a hypothetical match-up between Cruz and, say, Chris Christie after a month or two of Christie selling his own brand of alpha-male centrism on the trail beyond New Hampshire. If you want a guy who knows how to pander to Democratic voters and ostentatiously doesn’t care how boorish people find him, there’s an obvious choice. And it ain’t Ted Cruz. Exit question: Is Trump’s Democratic support being oversold by Cohn? Look back at the numbers at the top. Even among registered Republicans, he’s just a hair shy of 30 percent support, enough to lead the field. Is that because a bunch of former Democrats have already re-registered as Republicans over the last 10 years and are responding to Trump? Or is Trump appealing in some ways even to longtime righties?
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In many of these areas, a large number of traditionally Democratic voters have long supported Republicans in presidential elections. Even now, Democrats have more registered voters than Republicans do in states like West Virginia and Kentucky, which have been easily carried by Republicans in every presidential contest of this century. As recently as a few years ago, Democrats still had a big advantage in partisan self-identification in the same states. I think a big part of what explains Trump is the natural growing pains of the GOP assimilating big govt whites leaving the Dem Party.
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
ALL of these professional beltway and big northern pundits are full of crap because for THEM,rational,sane government begins to the left of middle left. Unfortunately,the drones with the Big Red R on their chests who have been living in,working in,or dreaming of being in DC have bought into this "we'uns rilly,rilly,rilly needs de Dim votes ta win!" garbage. It was this sort of thinking that destroyed the Republican Party,starting back when almost everybody on discussion boards like FR were giving themselves high 5's and celebrating every time someone that had been an elected Dim their entire lives suddenly switched parties and ran as Republicans so they could get elected. The so-called Reagan Revolution (Goldwater is the one that started it) had the Dim party on the ropes to the point that life-long Dims were having a hard time getting elected in districts that had been voting Dim since the 1800's. I was telling people on FR back then to be careful what they were celebrating and wishing for,because it would be the death of conservatism if it didn't stop because NONE of those people because conservatives when they switched parties. They were the same vote buying welfare weasels they had always been,they just switched party labels and their goal was to weaken the Republicans while retaining power. This is still happening today because the mainstream media and both branches of the ruling party have labeled all politicians with a R behind their names as "conservatives",and all this does is give conservatives a bad name and cause the conservative voting base to stay home in disgust and not vote. People like John McLuntic,the Bush Crime Family,Lady Lindsey Graham,and Rubio "conservatives"???? GIMME A BLEEPING BREAK! What NEEDS to happen,and probably won't,is for the Republican voters to toss the bums out of the party by refusing to vote for them in the primaries,even if it means the "out in public" Dims take office. After all,it won't get any worse if they are in power for a cycle or two while we flush the current alleged Republican turds down the toilet because they vote with the Dims anyhow. Trump is no closer to be a conservative than Obama is,but he has a LOT of appeal to conservative voters because he is the ONLY SOB out there telling them what they want to hear. He doesn't actually mean it and most of them know this even if they won't admit it,but they are so happy to see a national politician talk the talk they are as giddy with excitement as school girls at a Justin Beiber concert. Maybe even as giddy with excitement as a Obomber voters at a shopping center riot right after a fresh load of big screen teebees came in. IF actual conservative Republican voters would actually start voting for actual conservatives in local and state primaries,within 4 years the national party will start changing to a MUCH more conservative organization,and finally the dreams of Goldwater and Reagan for America would begin to come true. BUT.....,as long as you keep voting for more of the same because you recognize their names and they have R's behind their name,all you are going to get is more of the same. As long as you keep voting for globalists,America will keep getting weaker until she disappears entirely and becomes a cog in Wordwide Government,Inc. As for Trump,he is nothing but a scam artist playing the geeks for money and power. If he hadn't been born into wealth and privilege,he would be a used car salesman. He cares nothing for nobody and nothing but himself and his family empire and will do and say anything he has to do and say to strengthen his "trademark". Still,he is the only player in the game that is even pretending to be conservative. The others,with the possible exception of Cruz,are not even doing the courtesy of lying to the voters about their goals. They are running as globalists and claiming globalism IS conservatism. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
Trump is picking up the Romney Republican socialized medicine progressive Democrats, baby killing, gay transgender, gun grabbers, and commies that think that Bernie's not tyrannical enough. He's got everything north of the Mason Dixon line, and east of the Mississippi river locked up! I don't know about Mississippi,but being a life-long denizen of NYC and NJ,he has a pretty solid lock in the northeast and the northwest. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see him beating Mrs Bubba in some of those states. After all,he is one of them and has been since birth. So was his father and grandfather. Mrs Bubba,on the other hand,only became a north-easterner when she had to have a house there to accept the NY Senate seat that was given to her. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
The Democrats who self-identified as Republican or GOP-leaning in this poll were Democrats from places like West Virginia and Kentucky where Dems are a big majority in the state but they vote GOP for prez steadily in recent decades. Trump's appeal was strongest with them (and we would likely get their votes anyway) and with the inactive or indy voters that the GOP usually can't get to turn out for their GOPe candidates. Anyway, this plays out once again to whether Trump can, like Obama in 2008, identify and motivate these inactive voters to turn out in big numbers. If he can, he could reshape the entire election. If not, he would face certain defeat against Hitlery. No way to know in advance either.
In New England, sure. Maybe not in the northwest or the mountain states so much. His strength in the South is a mile wide and an inch deep. He could score big or fall totally flat on his face. We won't know until the big contests all across the South that come in several waves after South Carolina. SC will likely give us a good idea of whether Trump has any real Confederate appeal. : )
It is MY opinion that the leftist denizens of the northwest have NYC-envy. It's like the Leftist Mecca. Hard to say about the western mountain states like Colorado. Get away from the big cities,and they are solid conservative. The big cities have became polluted and taken over by the denizens fleeing the "paradise" they created in Ca. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
real Confederate appeal A little cheesy with that photoshopping. They stole the image off the Wiki page for Al Lewis (Grandpa Munster).
In New England, sure. Maybe not in the northwest or the mountain states so much. His strength in the South is a mile wide and an inch deep. He could score big or fall totally flat on his face. We won't know until the big contests all across the South that come in several waves after South Carolina. SC will likely give us a good idea of whether Trump has any real Confederate appeal. : ) He plan a desperate spending spree in Iowa .But that won't make a difference because Cruz will win that . That makes NH crucial to him. He has a good shot because NH foolishly has an open primary . In states where only registered Republicans can vote in primaries, Trump's support is over stated . But he needs that for momentum going into SC . Yes that appears to be the key state to his path to the nomination. Trump has only 29% support among voters who say they are 80% likely to vote, and 40% support among those who are least likely to vote. He is counting on a big turnout of unregistered or people unlikely to vote . He does not appear to have the ground game to change that into his favor . Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I still think he is waiting for the DNC to make the "right" cash and future contracts offer,and then step down after it's too late for anyone else to really gain traction. The Clinton's paid Perot to do this,and I see no reason why they wouldn't pay Trump for the same service. If you will remember,his data service,EDS,got awarded the contract to computerize the entire SS database,a contract worth billions. Perot was in the WH signing the contract within days of Bubba Bill being sworn in. IIRC,it wasn't long after than Perot sold EDS and made a huge profit. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
Perot did no such thing. At that time Perot was one of the wealthest men in the country, if not the world. He had no use for more money. He had enough that he could spend $200,000 a month for the rest of his life and not run out of funds. He was smart enough to understand more would be useless to him. If somone were to offer Perot $25,000 to walk across the street, he wouldn't be bothered with it. There was nothing he could do with it that he didn't already have if he wanted to have it. He couldn't be bought at any price.
I just don't see Trump having the kind of appeal that Romney or McStain had to voters in NH. He's just not their kind of guy, at least, not in any obvious way. So that does leave SC as Trump's best shot at grabbing some delegates and generating big buzz going into the big multistate primaries that include a lot of states in the deep South.
Yeah,we all know that the one thing billionaires hate is more money. Yet EDS DID get the contract,and he DID show up at the WH as a guest of the Clintons the same week Bubba took the oath. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
You're a pro faggot pro bernie sanders demoshit. You champion men who take it up the ass. You're no conservative. You're just a dope who lives in a junk yard and makes up tall tales.
Sneak a peter makes stuff up. He is a known liar.
You are a closeted homosexual and a professional fool that is obsessed with homosexuality. As a fundie member of a religious cult,you are closer to being a conservative Muslim than you are to being a conservative American. If you weren't insane,you would admit to being ashamed of yourself. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
Sneak a peter makes stuff up. He is a known liar. Fuck you,you ignorant,superstitious fool. IF you had even the tiniest trace of self-respect you would be ashamed of yourself. EDS getting the government contract to digitize SS records is an establish historical fact,and so is Perot going to the Clintion WH to sign the contract. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
While EDS came to prominence with government contracts and the big SS contract, I think EDS made the bulk of its money from software and systems to handle the various state Medicaid programs. They had a sort of master program to cover all of Medicaid's requirements from the federal angle and then they added/removed features and programming, depending on how the individual state Medicaid programs were enacted under state laws.
You act like you were there. You weren't and never will be. Your assertions are purely a projection of your immagination. Yeah, we all know that the one thing billionaires hate is more money. There are some men in this world that have importent interests other than money. When they get enough of it, they pursue those interests. Try to understand, not everybody thinks the limited and narrow way you do.
You are right. They started out with Texas. IIRC,they only made something like $4,000 their first year. Perot sold it after getting the federal SS contract. I have no idea who owns it now,or what he owns. Running for president was a two-fer for him,with the added bonus for some of killing any hope for a 3rd party ever winning the WH. He may have actually won if he hadn't dropped out when his numbers and support started to really rise,but he quit when he was winning. Then he came back into the race again when it looked like Bush was winning,taking enough votes away from Bush to give the election to Clinton. Not that there was any real difference between Bush and Clinton. Neither gave a damn about America. It was maybe the best chance any of us would see in our lifetimes for an actual conservative 3rd Party to break the stranglehold of the D and R parties,though. That alone is enough reason to hate him forever. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
And Perot isn't one of them,you pompous fool. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012) American Indians had open borders. Look at how well that worked out for them.
And Perot isn't one of them,you pompous fool. His personal history seems to refute your assertions.
Sneak a Peter thinks that paupers buy off billionaires. He is lying or stupid.
Pete you are the one who who has homosexual members in your family. I think because you made them that way when they were kids.
As a fundie member of a religious cult,you are closer to being a conservative Muslim than you are to being a conservative American. If you weren't insane,you would admit to being ashamed of yourself. Keep up talk like that and I will personally come to your house and put you down. Stupid geezer.
Is English your primary language? Anyhow this is what desperation looks like. Winning everywhere.
An interesting graph from Civis but they are a previously unknown polling company. Their methodology and tabulation methods raise a lot of questions about their results. There are a lot of very new polling companies out there. These polls have no track record at all. Civis is at least doing live phone polling, unlike some others that do internet surveys or even Facebook surveys to create their "polls". I think the rolling poll averages at RealClearPolitics is a lot more reliable. Which isn't saying much, given the state of polling in a year where Gallup, whose entire reputation rested for 75 years on their primary and general election polling, announced it would not do primary polling in 2016 and might not even produce general election polls in 2016, the first since 1936 as I recall.
#2. To: TooConservative, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#0)
(Edited)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#3. To: hondo68 (#2)
He's got everything north of the Mason Dixon line, and east of the Mississippi river locked up!
#4. To: hondo68 (#2)
Trump is picking up the Romney Republican socialized medicine progressive Democrats, baby killing, gay transgender, gun grabbers, and commies that think that Bernie's not tyrannical enough.
#5. To: sneakypete, tomder55 (#3)
...but being a life-long denizen of NYC and NJ,he has a pretty solid lock in the northeast and the northwest.
#6. To: TooConservative (#5)
In New England, sure. Maybe not in the northwest or the mountain states so much.
#7. To: TooConservative (#5)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#8. To: hondo68 (#7)
#9. To: TooConservative, sneakypete (#5)
but being a life-long denizen of NYC and NJ,he has a pretty solid lock in the northeast and the northwest.
#10. To: tomder55 (#9)
(Edited)
Trump has only 29% support among voters who say they are 80% likely to vote, and 40% support among those who are least likely to vote. He is counting on a big turnout of unregistered or people unlikely to vote . He does not appear to have the ground game to change that into his favor .
#11. To: sneakypete (#10)
The Clinton's paid Perot to do this...
#12. To: tomder55 (#9)
That makes NH crucial to him. He has a good shot because NH foolishly has an open primary . In states where only registered Republicans can vote in primaries, Trump's support is over stated . But he needs that for momentum going into SC . Yes that appears to be the key state to his path to the nomination.
#13. To: rlk (#11)
Perot did no such thing. At that time Perot was one of the wealthest men in the country, if not the world. He had no use for more money.
#14. To: sneakypete (#1)
IF actual conservative Republican voters would actually start voting for actual conservatives in local and state
#15. To: rlk (#11)
The Clinton's paid Perot to do this... Perot did no such thing.
#16. To: A K A Stone (#14)
#17. To: A K A Stone (#15)
The Clinton's paid Perot to do this... Perot did no such thing.
#18. To: sneakypete, A K A Stone (#17)
EDS getting the government contract to digitize SS records is an establish historical fact,and so is Perot going to the Clintion WH to sign the contract.
#19. To: sneakypete (#13)
(Edited)
Yet EDS DID get the contract,and he DID show up at the WH as a guest of the Clintons the same week Bubba took the oath.
#20. To: TooConservative (#18)
While EDS came to prominence with government contracts and the big SS contract, I think EDS made the bulk of its money from software and systems to handle the various state Medicaid programs.
#21. To: rlk (#19)
There are some men in this world that have importent interests other than money.
#22. To: sneakypete (#21)
There are some men in this world that have importent interests other than money.
#23. To: rlk (#22)
#24. To: rlk (#22)
#25. To: sneakypete (#17)
(Edited)
#26. To: sneakypete (#16)
You are a closeted homosexual and a professional fool that is obsessed with homosexuality.
#27. To: A K A Stone (#26)
#28. To: tomder55 (#9)
He plan a desperate spending spree in Iowa .
#29. To: A K A Stone (#28)
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