politics and politicians
See other politics and politicians Articles
Title: WaPo: GOP preparing for brokered convention
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/12/ ... aring-for-brokered-convention/
Published: Dec 11, 2015
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2015-12-11 05:47:57 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1671
Comments: 28
How many men ever get to say, “Today my fondest dream came true?” I’m glad you were here to share this special moment with me, my friends. Considering that scenario as Priebus and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) listened, several longtime power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight, in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative, the people said… Upon leaving, several attendees said they would soon share with one another memos about delegate allocation in each state as well as research about the 1976 convention, the last time the GOP gathered without a clear nominee… “I’ll be disadvantaged,” [Donald Trump said]. “The deal-making, that’s my advantage. My disadvantage is that I’d be going up against guys who grew up with each other, who know each other intimately and I don’t know who they are, okay? That’s a big disadvantage. . . . These kind of guys stay close. They all know each other. They want each other to win.” Before we get to gaming this out, here’s a thought: Did the RNC leak this deliberately to placate Trump? He’s been making more noise than usual lately about how he might quit the party and run as an independent if they’re not “nice” to him or whatever. That’s the nightmare scenario for the RNC, even more than nominating Trump would be. (We can argue over whether they have their priorities straight about that.) By signaling that they’re preparing for a brokered convention, they’re telling him that they think he’s for real and fully expect him to contend into the summer, in case he was having any quiet doubts himself. The longer he’s in the race, the less likely it is that he can run third-party since the ballot deadlines for some states begin as early as March. If he hangs in there with dreams of winning at the convention, the window to bolt the party will close. And then, if he’s not the Republican nominee, he’s done. The convention they’re preparing for, obviously, is a three-way split between Cruz, with social cons and tea partiers behind him; Rubio, with center-righties and establishmentarians in his corner; and Trump, with his coalition of blue-collars and Jacksonians. I suppose something weird could happen where Jeb Bush or Christie bumps Rubio out of his niche before New Hampshire, but if we’re destined for a three-man race, this is almost certainly what it looks like. So then: What happens at a convention where each of them have roughly a third of the delegates in their pocket? One splashy possibility is that the delegates deadlock and the party is forced to look elsewhere for a consensus choice. It won’t be Romney; all that would do is annoy everyone. Paul Ryan is a better bet, but Ryan is now viewed suspiciously by enough righties that he probably wouldn’t be a uniter either. Rubio fans would accept him but Cruz and Trump fans wouldn’t. Realistically, it would need to be one of the three candidates. Imagine how much emotion each man’s supporters will have invested in the race by June, only to see some semi-random character brought in and offered as an alternative instead. It would reek of the establishment trying to upend the table and install “their guy” after months of battle, a bad move at any time but especially in a populist climate. It won’t happen. My guess is that some sort of deal would be struck to create a Cruz/Rubio ticket. Job one for the RNC at the convention would be to deny Trump the nomination (as Trump himself basically acknowledges in the excerpt above) while also placating his supporters so that they’re willing to stick around through November and vote Republican in the general election. Rubio, because of his immigration record, is probably unacceptable to too many Trump fans to be the nominee. Cruz, who’s more of an immigration hawk, might be okay. Trump has too much of an ego to be anyone’s VP and the party will want to calm center-righties who loathe the idea of a party led by Cruz, so Rubio is the obvious VP consolation prize. The RNC won’t like nominating Cruz but if doing so holds the party together and keeps Trump off the ballot, they’ll accept that compromise at that point. Where this becomes tricky, obviously, is in the number of delegates each man has when the convention begins. If Rubio has 40 percent and Cruz and Trump each have 30, how do you tell Rubio fans that their man needs to be VP instead of president? If Trump has 40 and Rubio and Cruz each have 30, what do you say to Trumpers? I think the RNC could tolerate an outcome (happily) where Rubio has a plurality of delegates or (grudgingly) where Cruz has a plurality, but if Trump has the plurality there’ll be war. And even if he doesn’t, what do you offer Trump to satisfy him if he’s not the nominee himself? Is there anything Rubio could dangle in front of him to earn his endorsement over Cruz? Is there anything Cruz could offer to get Trump to quit? Offering to make him, say, head of DHS would horrify anti-Trumpers almost as much as nominating him would. Don’t forget the X factor in all of this, though: Rule 40(b). I recommend following that link and re-reading my post from January about it, as it may decide the nominee even if no one ends up with a clear majority of delegates. According to Rule 40(b), the nominee must have a clear majority of delegates in at least eight states to have his name placed in nomination. All of the states that vote before March 15th are required to award their delegates proportionally. Starting on March 15th, the remaining 27 states/districts are free to award all of their delegates to the winner, ensuring a majority to the victor in that state. That doesn’t mean all of them will, but they can if they want. (And most, if not all, probably will.) It may be that Trump, Cruz, and Rubio will each win a majority in eight states, which puts us right back in the scenario above. It may be that only two will, in which case one of them will be disqualified and the GOP will have to decide between the other two. Or it may be that only one does and that guy — assuming Rule 40(b) isn’t changed in the interim — is the nominee by default because he’s the only one who qualified in accordance with the rules. Imagine the clusterfark, though, if, say, Trump enters the convention with the most delegates but somehow has only won a clear majority in seven states whereas Cruz and Rubio each notched majorities in eight. The delegate leader would be automatically eliminated. Would Trump fans stand for that? What if the RNC creates a few unpledged “superdelegates” in the next few months who can vote however they please and just so happen to be drawn from the ranks of the donor class? How would Trumpers feel about that? It’s gonna be real. Two things, though. One: Er, is it really possible that no one picks up enough momentum along the way here to effectively eliminate the other two guys? I can imagine a long two-man race a la Obama and Hillary in 2008 but it’s hard to imagine three different people alternating wins consistently for months, notwithstanding that each of them has different regional and demographic appeal. Two: Go look at the primary schedule and check out all the winner-take-all states starting on March 15. A lot of them are blue states, which you would think would favor Rubio or Trump over Cruz. If the delegate counts are close, would it matter if one candidate piled up a bunch of wins late and seemed to be catching on nationally before the convention? Or would the argument be, “Who cares about blue states? We’re going to lose those anyway. It’s the purple states that matter.” Poster Comment: What if Trump and Cruz both manage to win 8 states (50%+1) and no other candidate (Rubio/Bush/Christie) does? More than 20 of them convened Monday for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where the prospect of Trump nearing next year’s nominating convention in Cleveland with a significant number of delegates dominated the discussion, according to five people familiar with the meeting.
Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 25.
#8. To: TooConservative (#0)
I've been trying to find out how many delegates are selected in the primaries as opposed to other ,caucuses, state conventions or at large delegations .As I understand it ,RNC members are automatically delegates . I still question what type of ground game Trump has . I know Cruz has does his work at the state level. It is unlikely that Paul will drop out early because many states have proportional delegate selection in the early primaries. My guess is he drops out in April.
I saw an online GOP delegate/convention calculator a while back. The GOP does have far fewer superdelegates than the Dems do. One of the places where Obama won the nomination in 2008 was in carrying the Dem superdelegates. I did enjoy this excerpt of just how oily and triangulating Cruz really is. Expect a lot more of this LBJ-like behavior from Cruz. Last night the Times posted five minutes of audio recorded at the fundraiser in which Cruz lays out his battle plan for the primary. Some of it you’ve heard many times before; he talks openly in interviews about the “conservative” lane and the “moderate” lane and how there’s a 50-car pile-up in the moderate lane for once while the conservative lane is clear for him. What’s new, at around 1:50, is his admission that he’s been smothering Trump and Carson with love to ingratiate himself to their voters in the expectation that their support will crumble organically as people get serious about the race. I wonder if that’s what set Trump off or if he held his fire until today because he wasn’t sure until the audio was published that Cruz had really questioned his judgment after all. It’s interesting that Trump advisor Dan Scavino, in accusing Cruz of having finally showed his “true colors,” didn’t clip the audio of Cruz talking about Trump’s judgment but rather the bit where he admits to bear-hugging Trump as a matter of strategy. To any other candidate, it would be obvious that Cruz’s friendliness was purely mercenary. (A RINO scourge like Cruz must detest Trump’s leftward tendencies in private.) To an ego like Trump’s, though, it may be genuinely wounding that Cruz, despite insisting here that he “likes and respects” Trump, is essentially playing him for votes. I don’t think this is war for the simple reason that Cruz won’t respond. If anything, Cruz being Cruz, he’ll issue a quasi-apology saying he regrets that his “friend” Donald was offended or whatever. Press play below and listen to the man yourself. The name of the game is “bear-hugging” and there’s no reason for that not to continue unless Cruz falls behind again in Iowa and starts running out of time before the caucuses. In fact, with Christie making his move in New Hampshire, I’d say that Cruz has more reason than ever to lie low against Trump right now. Christie’s going to start throwing punches at Trump to try to close the gap in NH and some of those punches may help weaken Trump in Iowa. Why should Cruz anger Trump fans by taking him on when Christie will soon be doing his dirty work for him? Update: Good lord. I knew he’d grovel but this is obsequious even for Cruz. Sorry to disappoint — @realDonaldTrump is terrific. #DealWithIt — Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) December 11, 2015 What if conservatism’s only hope is him and Trump in a cage match? Worth doing then, or can conservatism be risked in the name of taking down “the establishment”? Cruz is a cynical and brilliant pol. You don't graduate at the top at Princeton, again at Harvard law and then clerk for the Chief Justice like Cruz did unless you are a very capable and penetrating thinker. I've wondered before exactly how Cruz charts his path, how his internal process works. This little audio clip of Cruz with his donors is pretty revealing of what Cruz is really like, as opposed to his little performances on the campaign trail. Fundraiser Ted seems like the real Ted Cruz to me.
Cruz is smart. Like Mr. Burns. Trump is also smart, far more financially successful (which is why Cruz needs to be a fundraiser while Trump can refuse money), much more accomplished and - the key - charismatic. Cruz is not charismatic. Even people who like what he says find him creepy. But wanting to win the nomination by waiting for Trump to implode and collecting his voters doesn't make Cruz evil. He's a politician wanting to win an election. Thing is, Trump ISN'T going to implode. He's going to continue to soar, because he is the ONLY politician who is mainlining the suppressed, oppressed thoughts of the bulk of the American people. In that sense he is like Nixon rallying the Silent Majority, or Reagan rallying the Reagan Democrats. But in that comparison, Trump has Reagan's charisma and more. Cruz has Nixon's. Charisma is the secret sauce of leadership. Bernie Sanders has some. By contrast, Hillary Clinton has the charm of Nurse Ratchet. Jeb Bush has the charisma of an eggplant. Rubio has more than the others in the Establishment, and Christie has a little of that hearty bully bravado. But Trump is far more interesting than any of them. At the end of the day, Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, and he's going to win the election and be President. Between now and then we have to go through all of the gyrations of a dying control class and a lying press, but Trump is the golden child this time, and he will win this "Game of Thrones".
He is a calculating pol, no doubt. That audio clip makes it pretty clear. And I'm not saying I expect much else from any pol. They all have some triangulation strategy they want to use so they can be the last man standing for the GOPe to take on Trump. A good example of Bush triangulating against the field is that his strategist recently tweeted something to the other GOP campaigns to the effect that they had better not count on Bush to spend his campaign warchest to take out Trump (Bush's superPAC still has about $70 million). The implication was that Bush intends to last until the others all implode and his interest is in defeating all of them before he stands alone to take on Trump and then Hitlery. And that is exactly the kind of thinking you'd get from Bush's main campaign guy, longtime GOP operative Mike Murphy. So Cruz is far from being the only conniving pol in this race. I hope you were seated when I broke that news to you. : )
I think Jeb's people are betting on a brokered convention, and are looking out at the Republican Caucus states. (I'm assuming there still are some: you follow this stuff better than I do). Jeb needs 8 states. He can get them via caucuses. Then he's the pol with the $70 million war chest and the requisite 8 states at the GOP Convention - and aims to use the convention to be the nominee. This will fail, because Trump is going to sweep things decisively and get the majority, but let's ride Bush's strategy out to the finale. So, at the convention, Bush has 8, Rubio has 8, Trump has a lot more, but not 50% +1 of the delegates. Now what? Brokered convention. Everybody but Trump backs Bush. He's the nominee. One of two things happens next: Trump runs Third Party, and Hillary wins. OR Trump says he was robbed, and goes home to work on something else because he's not going to waste his money on a failed third party run. He'll be back in 2020, and he'll win it then. So it's just Jeb versus Hillary. Jeb loses, for the same reason Romney lost, and more. People like me stay home. The Trump Democrats stay home or vote for Hillary. The Border Bots stay home. Hillary wins in a landslide. And then, everything that I wrote on the other thread about Trump using the FULL power of the President as it has been stretched and abused is done, but by Hillary instead of Trump.
Too many states require filing for the general election by March 2016. So the primaries will just be underway as the chance to run indy in a lot of states starts to fade starting in March. I'm not sure how many states but I had in mind there's a half-dozen that require an indy candidate (or Libertarians or Greens or whatnot) to file for the general election before April. The states say they need the planning time to prepare ballots in the fall. So if Trump or Carson are going to run third-party, it will happen before March. Otherwise, it's nothing but a spoiler campaign to defeat a Republican. I thought Carson looked kinda pathetic when he started me-tooing today about RNC tricksters. Like he's that important to begin with. Maybe he's trying out to play the role of Mini-Me for Trump.
Trump isn't going to run third party, because he's WINNING the Republican nomination. When Carson drops out, Trump will get all of the Carson voters. Trump has the lead and will extend the lead, and come the convention, he will have the votes to be the nominee outright. What is driving all of this is the relentless drive to stop him. On issue after issue Trump states a position, the GOP attacks, and Trump rises, because Trump's view is the ignored view of the majority of the people. Republicans and Democrats have ruled against the will of the people for so long, all they know how to do is lie. But when a billionaire steps forward who doesn't need their money, and whose mind is with the people, well...we all see what's happening. And all of these petty attacks have one outcome: Trump rises further, solifies his lead further, looks like a leader because he IS a leader. The Reagan Democrats never liked Reagan as much as the Trump Democrats and Independents will like Trump. Trump is the ultimate CENTRIST candidate, in the sense of offering as poilicies the opinions of the majority of Americans on really controversial issues.
Or the new First Lady.
She'll definitely do.
Yep. Big improvement.
#26. To: Roscoe (#25)
I hardly see how high cheekbones w/ a square jaw and squinty eyes are an improvement. Those features are just as masculine as Michelle's but more acceptable since it's considered model like (lol). They both lack neoteny and are both tall masculinzed women, therefore repulsive. there's a reason why 5"2 women with baby faces aren't in politics.
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest
#10. To: tomder55, hondo68, Vicomte13, A K A Stone (#8)
I've been trying to find out how many delegates are selected in the primaries as opposed to other ,caucuses, state conventions or at large delegations .As I understand it ,RNC members are automatically delegates . I still question what type of ground game Trump has . I know Cruz has does his work at the state level.
That is a definite Bear Hug (apologies to Leo Caprio). . . . The Establishment's only hope: Trump & me in a cage match.
#11. To: TooConservative (#10)
#12. To: Vicomte13 (#11)
(Edited)
But wanting to win the nomination by waiting for Trump to implode and collecting his voters doesn't make Cruz evil. He's a politician wanting to win an election.
#13. To: TooConservative (#12)
#15. To: Vicomte13 (#13)
One of two things happens next: Trump runs Third Party
#20. To: TooConservative (#15)
#21. To: Vicomte13 (#20)
The Reagan Democrats never liked Reagan as much as the Trump Democrats and Independents will like Trump.
#22. To: Roscoe (#21)
#25. To: Vicomte13 (#22)
Replies to Comment # 25.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 25.
[Home] [Headlines] [Latest Articles] [Latest Comments] [Post] [Mail] [Sign-in] [Setup] [Help] [Register]