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politics and politicians Title: President Trump -part-2- what-if-hes-the-nominee? www.conservativereview.com COMMENTARY
If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, recent history suggests he may need to realign the electorate in order to win the general election. In part one we took a look at data that showed despite skepticism from the political class, Trump could absolutely win the nomination. Given his particular voter base, however, and the way he would likely manage a general election, the traditional coalition it takes for a Republican to win the White House may have to be reconfigured with Trump as standard-bearer. The last major realignment we had in American politics was during the election of 1980, which saw the advent of the Moral Majority (or values voters) that gave Ronald Reagan a third leg to the conservative stool his ideological predecessor, Barry Goldwater, never had. This alliance of pro-life Catholics and evangelicals, forged in response to Roe v. Wade and the hedonism of the counter-culture, became the dominant force in the GOP’s grassroots, creating a new coalition that changed the election map. As a result, southern Democrats nowadays are a rare breed. For example, prior to Roe the Democrats won the Catholic vote in six of the previous seven presidential elections; Catholics were one of the most loyal Democrat voting blocs post World War II. Since Roe, however, every Republican presidential election victory except one has one thing in common—the GOP won the Catholic vote. The lone exception was in 2000 when George W. Bush was elected president without winning the popular vote, which is a historical outlier. Translation: If Republicans do not run a strong pro-life candidate for president, they don’t have enough else in common with Catholic voters to win the Catholic vote. And Trump is not a strong pro-life candidate. Just a few months ago Trump was named Planned Parenthood’s “favorite Republican.” A candidate who mocks what spiritual conversion can do to renew someone’s life, as Trump just did during a campaign stop in Iowa last week, is going to have a hard time energizing evangelicals. Evangelicals accounted for half of the total 2012 GOP primary vote, according to a study by CBS News, and remain the largest single constituency in the GOP base. Republican nominees depend on that base to be energized every bit as much as Democrats need minority voters to enthusiastically support their nominee. A candidate who mocks what spiritual conversion can do to renew someone’s life, as Trump just did during a campaign stop in Iowa last week, is going to have a hard time energizing evangelicals. On the other hand, given the current makeup of Trump’s support base, there is evidence he would perform well with middle class voters in the general. And every time Republicans have won middle class voters since 1980, they’ve won the White House. According to polling analysis, the lower the income and the bluer your collar, the more likely you are to support Trump in this primary. These voters appreciate Trump’s chutzpah, and see him as a poison pill to a system they’ve all but given up on. Not to mention they are the people most likely to be negatively impacted by the financial and societal costs of illegal immigration. Nevertheless, if Trump sees erosion in the GOP’s values voter base, he’s going to need to add other constituencies to his existing supporters in order to forge a winning coalition. Especially when you consider Trump’s willingness to alter his positions on the fly, because virtually every even moderately conservative position Trump is taking now is a contradiction of his previous progressive positions. Therefore, one could certainly come to the conclusion he is taking these positions now to cater to the primary electorate, and then will pivot away from several of them in the general when he believes he already has those voters locked up.
Finally, there is one “x-factor” here: Who would Trump select as a running mate? steve deace Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 4. Finally, there is one “x-factor” here: Who would Trump select as a running mate? I'm betting on Cruz.
#3. To: tpaine (#1) I'm betting on Cruz. I expect he'll pick Rubio.
#4. To: Vicomte13 (#3) Catholics generally view Protestants as being rigid and unforgiving. That's not Catholic culture. Trump will get plenty of Catholic votes if his position is one of maintaining the social safety net, making taxes more fair, and getting working class people to work. You may be right, if Trump can retain those social positions, -- while keeping his conservative political positions.
That's why I'm still betting on Cruz. --Cruz has the conservative chops…
I expect he'll pick Rubio.
Rubio's too 'moderate'.
Replies to Comment # 4. Rubio's too 'moderate'. Trump wants the Hispanic vote. Rubio and Cruz are both Hispanic, but Rubio is Catholic while Cruz is Protestant. Both are pro-life. Rubio is a lot more appealing to independents than Cruz is. Trump is already perceived by many as a bully. Cruz has that same appearance, though less effectively so. Rubio doesn't add edge to Trump's campaign. Rubio also shores up a lot of support of the Republican money base and Establishment. He's their man, and with him on the ticket, and the eventual potential heir, they can accept Trump just as they accepted Reagan in part because of H.W. Bush. Trump will want to unite the party, because he's in to win, not just make a statement. Rubio will do that for him and give him Hispanics and please Catholics. Cruz will alarm the Establishment - they're permanently alienated from him - Cruz pleases the farther-right base, which is already where Trump plays quite strong. I think the strategic advantages of Rubio for Trump outweigh the advantages of Cruz, which is why I think Trump will select Rubio. But I'll vote for Trump no matter who he picks.
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