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politics and politicians Title: We Have Our Final Six [GOP primary candidates] Tonight’s debate showed that the GOP field is smaller than it looks. Technically, there are still fourteen people running, but the winnowing is far along. We probably have a final six and possibly a final four. The three winners of the night were pretty obvious: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump. Rubio ended Jeb Bush’s campaign with the kind of body shot that buckles your knees. That’s on Bush, who never should have come after Rubio in that spot for a host of strategic and tactical reasons. But what should scare Hillary Clinton is how effortless Rubio is even with throwaway lines, like “I’m against anything that’s bad for my mother.” Most people have no idea how fearsome raw political talent can be. Clinton does know because she’s seen it up close. She sleeps next to it for a contractually-obligated 18 nights per year. Cruz was tough and canny—no surprise there. He went the full-Gingrich in his assault on CNBC’s ridiculous moderators. He did a better job explaining Social Security reform than Chris Christie, even (which is no mean feat). And managed to look downright personable compared with John Harwood, whose incompetence was matched only by his unpleasantness. If you’re a conservative voter looking for someone who is going to fight for your values, Cruz must have looked awfully attractive. Then there was Trump. Over the last few weeks, Trump has gotten better on the stump. Well, don’t look now, but he’s getting better at debates, too. Trump was reasonably disciplined. He kept his agro to a medium-high level. And his situational awareness is getting keener, too. Note how he backed John Kasich into such a bad corner on Lehmann Brothers that he protested, “I was a banker, and I was proud of it!” When that’s your answer, you’ve lost the exchange. Even at a Republican debate. And Trump had a hammer close: “Our country doesn’t win anymore. We used to win. We don’t anymore.” I remain convinced that this line (along with his hardliner on immigration) is the core of Trump’s appeal. But he didn’t just restate this theme in his closing argument. He used it to: (1) beat up CNBC; and (2) argue that his man-handling of these media twits is an example of what he’ll do as president. It was brilliant political theater. Those were your winners. You also saw tonight several campaigns which are over, even if the candidates don’t know it yet. Kasich was less likable than Rand Paul. Rand Paul was mostly invisible, and petulant when he was visible. Mike Huckabee wasn’t visible enough, except when he was doing his populist defense of Medicare and Social Security. But the effectiveness of this spot was diminished by Cruz’s excellent response, which is what people are apt to remember. There just isn’t enough space for him to make an impact by dint of personality in a field with a bunch of other strong and attractive personalities. And as for Bush? Jeb’s dead, baby. Jeb’s dead. That leaves us with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, who, by the way, is actually leading the field in some polls. Christie was as impressive tonight as he could be, given his position. He had a great opening. His interjection on regulating fantasy football was tremendous. The “Even in New Jersey what you’re doing is called rude” line to Harwood just killed. If the establishment had jumped on Christie early, instead of being scared off by the GW bridge scandal and going for Bush . . . well, this race would probably be different. But they didn’t. That said, we’ll keep Christie in our final grouping because he’s so talented that he’s always going to have a puncher’s chance. Fiorina had a solid debate, but wasn’t the run-away winner she’d been in the first two debates. If her numbers couldn’t hold when she was the class of the field, I doubt they’ll move much when she’s merely on the high-side of the average. It looks more and more like Fiorina isn’t running to win the nomination. And what to do about Carson? Gentle Ben was fine—great in some moments; pedestrian in others. I don’t think many people in the media fully grasp the passion for Carson, but that doesn’t make it any less real. And if you look at the history of Iowa, and Carson’s numbers now, it’s not hard to imagine him doing very well there. So there’s your final six: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe—just maybe—Fiorina and Christie. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 27. #2. To: TooConservative, all (#0) I did not get to see much, had streaming issues. Hope there will be a re run on You Tube. But a few points I did like, I liked Christie making an issue of talking about " Fantasy Football " with all of the far more important issues facing the nation, Bush talking about his " Fantasy Football Team " made him look very juvenile, I like all the slaps to the media by Cruz & others, and I really liked Huckabee's statement that he had taken on the Clinton's & lived to tell about it, LOL. Hope he does not wake up in Fort Marcy Park. ;) I think that at least Bush, Kaisich, and a few others should throw in the towel & go home. I will be interested to see others observations.
#4. To: Stoner (#2) The pundits are all panning Bush. I'm counting the hours until someone refers to him as "dead man walking" or "the Walking Dead candidate" or similar. Cruz and Christie and Rubio might all gain some points and backing to stay in the race. I don't think any of the others did. Trump and Carson will likely stay in the lead for a while longer. I think a breakout would come when you see a Rubio or Cruz hit 15% in some major polls.
#10. To: TooConservative (#4) Cruz and Christie and Rubio might all gain some points and backing to stay in the race. Not Christie. He won't be getting any support outside of the northeast. Americans don't vote for foreigners.
#14. To: sneakypete (#10) Not Christie. He won't be getting any support outside of the northeast. Americans don't vote for foreigners. Christie is quite capable of talking well enough to advance himself. I don't count him out. He entered the race at a disadvantage and has improved his position, compared with Kasich who has only got worse. I certainly wouldn't bet on Christie at this point but I wouldn't bet heavy against him either. If Trump drops out (so Christie can round up Blue state Republicans in the northeast) and public perception of a rise in crime becomes more prominent, Christie could benefit in a major way. Cruz may be a national debate champ but these "debates" are not formal. Christie can go toe-to-toe with Cruz in debate. And Christie is good at townhall format, etc. Just because I don't like him at all doesn't mean I think Christie is not a very talented politician. The fat man is a top-notch campaigner, just hoping for a breakthrough moment and the funds to compete.
#27. To: TooConservative (#14) Just because I don't like him at all doesn't mean I think Christie is not a very talented politician. The fat man is a top-notch campaigner, just hoping for a breakthrough moment and the funds to compete. That would mean something if he were an actual Dim,but he is what passes for a Republican in the northeast,and no Republican that isn't from the northeast will vote for one that is. As far as I am concerned,anything north of Hampton Roads,Va on the east coast is a foreign country. It sure as hell isn't America.
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