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Title: We Have Our Final Six [GOP primary candidates]
Source:
Weekly Standard
URL Source: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs ... ave-our-final-six_1055055.html
Published: Oct 28, 2015
Author: Jonathan V. Last
Post Date: 2015-10-29 07:37:13 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 3702
Comments: 39
Tonight’s debate showed that the GOP field is smaller than it looks. Technically, there are still fourteen people running, but the winnowing is far along. We probably have a final six and possibly a final four. The three winners of the night were pretty obvious: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump. Rubio ended Jeb Bush’s campaign with the kind of body shot that buckles your knees. That’s on Bush, who never should have come after Rubio in that spot for a host of strategic and tactical reasons. But what should scare Hillary Clinton is how effortless Rubio is even with throwaway lines, like “I’m against anything that’s bad for my mother.” Most people have no idea how fearsome raw political talent can be. Clinton does know because she’s seen it up close. She sleeps next to it for a contractually-obligated 18 nights per year. Cruz was tough and canny—no surprise there. He went the full-Gingrich in his assault on CNBC’s ridiculous moderators. He did a better job explaining Social Security reform than Chris Christie, even (which is no mean feat). And managed to look downright personable compared with John Harwood, whose incompetence was matched only by his unpleasantness. If you’re a conservative voter looking for someone who is going to fight for your values, Cruz must have looked awfully attractive. Then there was Trump. Over the last few weeks, Trump has gotten better on the stump. Well, don’t look now, but he’s getting better at debates, too. Trump was reasonably disciplined. He kept his agro to a medium-high level. And his situational awareness is getting keener, too. Note how he backed John Kasich into such a bad corner on Lehmann Brothers that he protested, “I was a banker, and I was proud of it!” When that’s your answer, you’ve lost the exchange. Even at a Republican debate. And Trump had a hammer close: “Our country doesn’t win anymore. We used to win. We don’t anymore.” I remain convinced that this line (along with his hardliner on immigration) is the core of Trump’s appeal. But he didn’t just restate this theme in his closing argument. He used it to: (1) beat up CNBC; and (2) argue that his man-handling of these media twits is an example of what he’ll do as president. It was brilliant political theater. Those were your winners. You also saw tonight several campaigns which are over, even if the candidates don’t know it yet. Kasich was less likable than Rand Paul. Rand Paul was mostly invisible, and petulant when he was visible. Mike Huckabee wasn’t visible enough, except when he was doing his populist defense of Medicare and Social Security. But the effectiveness of this spot was diminished by Cruz’s excellent response, which is what people are apt to remember. There just isn’t enough space for him to make an impact by dint of personality in a field with a bunch of other strong and attractive personalities. And as for Bush? Jeb’s dead, baby. Jeb’s dead. That leaves us with Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, and Ben Carson, who, by the way, is actually leading the field in some polls. Christie was as impressive tonight as he could be, given his position. He had a great opening. His interjection on regulating fantasy football was tremendous. The “Even in New Jersey what you’re doing is called rude” line to Harwood just killed. If the establishment had jumped on Christie early, instead of being scared off by the GW bridge scandal and going for Bush . . . well, this race would probably be different. But they didn’t. That said, we’ll keep Christie in our final grouping because he’s so talented that he’s always going to have a puncher’s chance. Fiorina had a solid debate, but wasn’t the run-away winner she’d been in the first two debates. If her numbers couldn’t hold when she was the class of the field, I doubt they’ll move much when she’s merely on the high-side of the average. It looks more and more like Fiorina isn’t running to win the nomination. And what to do about Carson? Gentle Ben was fine—great in some moments; pedestrian in others. I don’t think many people in the media fully grasp the passion for Carson, but that doesn’t make it any less real. And if you look at the history of Iowa, and Carson’s numbers now, it’s not hard to imagine him doing very well there. So there’s your final six: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe—just maybe—Fiorina and Christie.
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#1. To: All (#0)
Same writer, just after the debate gave an obituary for Jeb!: The Bush hit on Rubio was obviously premeditated, so it wasn’t gaffe or a mistake. It was a revealing measure of his political talent and judgment. Let’s count the ways in which it was strategically ill-conceived and tactically incompetent: 1) He attacked Rubio not from a position of strength, but of weakness. “I’m a constituent and you’re not doing your job for me” is the personal complaint of a whiner. He looked like a disgruntled employee, not a leader. 2) He attacked Rubio on grounds of procedure and not substance. However important they might be, no one actually cares about voting absentee rates—the same way they don’t care about filibuster rules or the nuclear option. To think that this was the angle to blow up Rubio is insane. 3) As I said, Bush’s attack was almost certainly a pre-meditated set piece. Yet he didn’t have the political sense to see that Rubio was in a very good frame coming off of an answer where he beat the snot out of the moderators. Bush had no ability to read the scene and understand that it would have been better in that moment not to take the shot. He had a plan, so he robotically stuck to it. 4) On top of all of that, Bush didn’t understand that Rubio’s biggest concern at this point is being slotted as a tool of the establishment. Getting attacked by the establishment guy is the best luck Rubio could wish for. The only thing Bush accomplished is helping Rubio cross over, which will lift him in the polls, which will increase the donor pressure on Bush to drop out. In sum: Bush’s attack on Rubio was both a tactical and strategic failure. His campaign is cooked.
I did not get to see much, had streaming issues. Hope there will be a re run on You Tube. But a few points I did like, I liked Christie making an issue of talking about " Fantasy Football " with all of the far more important issues facing the nation, Bush talking about his " Fantasy Football Team " made him look very juvenile, I like all the slaps to the media by Cruz & others, and I really liked Huckabee's statement that he had taken on the Clinton's & lived to tell about it, LOL. Hope he does not wake up in Fort Marcy Park. ;) I think that at least Bush, Kaisich, and a few others should throw in the towel & go home. I will be interested to see others observations. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
LOL It's insane to take Fiorina and Cristie seriously. They have no chance. Carson is a dud. When the voting starts, he's finished. Cruz should run in Canada, or Cuba... he's not eligible to be president of the US. Rubio is not really eligible due to two Cuban citizen parents, but he's not doubly ineligible to the extent of Cruz the Canadian Cuban. The three GOP candidates are Trump, Paul, and Rubio. Neither the Democrat nor Republican wings of the party gives a damn about the US Constitution, so there's no eligibility requirements anymore. But Cruz is too blatant with his recent renouncement of his Canadian citizenship. The pundits are all panning Bush. I'm counting the hours until someone refers to him as "dead man walking" or "the Walking Dead candidate" or similar. Cruz and Christie and Rubio might all gain some points and backing to stay in the race. I don't think any of the others did. Trump and Carson will likely stay in the lead for a while longer. I think a breakout would come when you see a Rubio or Cruz hit 15% in some major polls.
If Birtherism didn't work against Obama, it isn't going to work against the Cubans, both of whom have much stronger natural-born claims than Obama did. Birtherism is a dead issue in this election, no matter what Oily Taitz says. You'll notice that Trump won't go there against the Cubans, even after he made such a stink over Obama's BC.
a dead issue in this election Sure, Republicans and Democrats are scofflaws. But it matters to voters who still have some respect for the US Constitution and the rule of law, like libertarians, and Independents. The big surprise (so far) in this election cycle is just how bad the Jebster is doing. As the chosen establishment candidate, he has to have caught them off guard with the level of incompetence of his campaign. So now I believe the establishment will have to trot out "Plan B." First off - the establishment candidate ALWAYS wins the nomination (Reagan in '80-a possible exception to that - was neutered by the establishment putting Bush on the ticket). So with that stated, I think we can winnow the list down to three - by first eliminating THESE three: Trump - non establishment - he's out. So that leaves three possibles - I'll list them in the order I think that the establishment would view them as "palpable" Rubio The gop(e) nominee WILL be one of those three. "Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD . . . " ~Psalm 33:12a
The gop(e) nominee WILL be one of those three. IOW, it will be Rubio unless Christie can beat him. They may not be able to stop Trump. Cruz, if he can peel away the Ron Paul voters that Rand is losing and add some Carson and Trump voters, has more potential than most people realize. He is building a 50-state operation and is steadily campaigning in a lot of states, not just IA/NH/SC. He also has strong donor backing and even WaPo says he's got the best campaign operation. He has worked at this ever since he arrived in D.C., just as Obama did. WaPo: FACT: Ted Cruz is running the best campaign of any presidential candidate That's a pretty strong op-ed opinion. The writer makes his case well. The more it is clear that a GOPe candidate (like Bush/Rubio/Christie) is going to be forced on the base by the Beltway GOP elite as with McCain and Romney, the more attractive Cruz will be as the only conservative who can win. Of course, YouGov polling shows Trump 14 points up on Carson so we'd have to see some significant voter shifts to get a GOPe candidate (or Cruz) within firing range of Trump/Carson. To catch fire, Cruz (or the others) need to reach about 15%. At present, they're all so far down in the polls that no one is talking them up much and they look like also-rans.
Bush is under a lot of pressure as the Bush Crime Family representative,the political future of the family,as well as their expanding wealth from influence peddling all rests on his shoulders. If/when he loses,they are no longer infallible and automatic front runners drawing all the cash donations and the free media. JEB's criminal son may not even be able to get elected in Texas. The best they can hope for is his daughter getting voted as "Miss Congeniality" in some upscale rehab center. Look at what happened to the Kennedy Klan after Fat Teddy died. They can't even hold on to seats they won long enough to serve out their terms. I realize that my dream of prison time for most of them,and then selling pencils on street corners after release will never come true,but can settle for them being out of government everywhere in the country. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Not Christie. He won't be getting any support outside of the northeast. Americans don't vote for foreigners. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Rubio Christie Fiorina The gop(e) nominee WILL be one of those three. I think you are almost right. I think it will narrow down to Rubio or Fiorina,and Rubio will end up being the Homecoming Queen. Not happy about it,but at least it won't be JEB or Trump. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I still think Trump sees the job as beneath him,and is in it for the ego boost and the payoffs. One thing you can count on dominating his every move is his ego. If he doesn't see he has an absolute lock on winning,he is going to drop out and spend the rest of his life bragging about how "I COULD have been president if I wanted,but the office is beneath me." No way is he ever going to risk being tagged with the "loser" tag. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
This is from the article at your link: In other words Cruz had an establishment shaped target on his back. I like Cruz, and I would vote for him if he were the nominee, but I just don't see it happening. The days when a conservative like a Reagan could "go over the heads" of the media and directly appeal to the electorate's intelligence are over. One, the electorate has been greatly dumbed down since then. It gets its news from Comedy Central and YouTube. And two, even Reagan couldn't get elected today because we've reached critical mass - i.e. the takers outnumber the providers. Next year's election is shaping up to be a Xlinton win (which is just fine with the gop-e). If the gop nominee is not a Bush, Rubio or other establishment pick, it will be fine in pulling a "Goldwater '64" and sitting out the general. "Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD . . . " ~Psalm 33:12a
Christie is quite capable of talking well enough to advance himself. I don't count him out. He entered the race at a disadvantage and has improved his position, compared with Kasich who has only got worse. I certainly wouldn't bet on Christie at this point but I wouldn't bet heavy against him either. If Trump drops out (so Christie can round up Blue state Republicans in the northeast) and public perception of a rise in crime becomes more prominent, Christie could benefit in a major way. Cruz may be a national debate champ but these "debates" are not formal. Christie can go toe-to-toe with Cruz in debate. And Christie is good at townhall format, etc. Just because I don't like him at all doesn't mean I think Christie is not a very talented politician. The fat man is a top-notch campaigner, just hoping for a breakthrough moment and the funds to compete.
But only for the laws they like. потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
You fail to account for sheer voter restlessness. Around the First World, voters just get sick of the party in power after 6-8 years. You have a very few exceptions, like Netanyahu's recent victory. Harper in Canada is gone despite governing very successfully. I think Poland just had a change in government, unfortunately toward a more big-government style. The voters are fickle. It is the secret hope (and anguish) of every underdog candidate. Events often drive these elections. A lot can happen between now and next year. Major terrorist attacks, Wall Street in trouble despite the massive bailouts and the Fed's constant intervention, etc. So it is always possible that history will shine favorably on a Republican and rain on Hitlery.
" Jeb's Dead Baby, Jeb's Dead " Bruce Willis from "Pulp Fiction". I have a good picture, but could not get it to post. Here is the link: https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CScsyJUWUAE-MPS.jpg Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
Yeah!! Thanks Fred !! Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
For Auto Link to work you need to remove the 's' from https:// URLs.
OK, I will try that. What I was trying was to do a simple copy & paste. Si vis pacem, para bellum Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.
Marco Rubio? What are you smoking my friend?
Rubio and Cruz (and Christie) helped themselves. The rest of the field didn't help themselves or even hurt themselves with flubbed attacks (Bush, Kasich). Since Trump and Carson are the leaders and made no real mistakes, they are still on top. The Bush/Rubio split as the establishment favorites means that if one drops out, the other one ends up in a strong third place position around 15%, just ahead of Cruz's current standing. Bush's backers are likely to start defecting to Rubio, leading to a media death spiral.
This is silly, discredited birther nonsense. Both Cruz and Rubio are U.S. citizens by virtue of their birth as citizens. They are natural born citizens, over 35 years of age, and eligible to be president.
America is blessed that you're not a Supreme Court justice. How many times did the birthers litigate this point re Obama or McCain? How may times did they fail? The scorecard is embarrassing.
That would mean something if he were an actual Dim,but he is what passes for a Republican in the northeast,and no Republican that isn't from the northeast will vote for one that is. As far as I am concerned,anything north of Hampton Roads,Va on the east coast is a foreign country. It sure as hell isn't America. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Zero? I remember a lot of talk about it,but don't remember any feral court agreeing to hear the case. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I remember a lot of talk about it,but don't remember any feral court agreeing to hear the case. http://tesibria.typepad.com/whats_your_evidence/BIRTHER%2520CASE%2520LIST.pdf You can view a case by case review with the result at each level, last updated 11 August 2015. At the trial court level the record is 0-225 (with one case pending). All decided actions failed in the pre-trial stage. At the appeals court the record is 0-120+. All appeals failed. At SCOTUS the record is 0-35+. All petitions for cert denied.
At the appeals court the record is 0-120+. All appeals failed. At SCOTUS the record is 0-35+. All petitions for cert denied. Judges tend to be political creatures with ambition. You're not going to find one that's willing to go up against the WH and the Justice Department. They all know if they do they have no future. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
I don't care if they own the keys to the front door of the Whitehouse and have pulled every vote in the nation toward themselves as POTUS, they are not eligible for my vote.
That has not been a judge in history insane enough to go for this birther hogwash.
They are eligible if you want to vote for of them.
I am voting for my dead dawg scruffy. I recommend that you do the same with your vote as voting for any of the candidates of the merged and integrated DEM/REP party is the acceptance of the current, existing fascist oligarchy. It would be solid proof that you believe that you are subservient to a so-called "leader" or set of "leaders" that demand your attention to their requirements as opposed to being a free&critical thinking citizen. The freedom offered by the DEM/REP party is less than zero to cast a vote that has any bearing or meaningful outcome on the nation other than you support their edict. Why would I or you or anyone want to vote for them? Rhetorically, because Anderson Cooper sold you on anyone of the candidates?
Demanding our president be an American is NOT "hogwash". As for Obomber,he is a natural born American because his actual father was the Marxist pedophile Frank Marshall Davis,not the African he claims. He grew up with the status of being offspring of an African,not a slave,and he wasn't willing to give up that status. If you had released his actual birth permit,it would show he had been lying about his father the whole time. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were born Americans. The only other way to become an American is to be naturalized, or by a change in the Constitution such as the 13th Amendment. Obama is a natural born citizen because he was born in the state of Hawaii. There is no evidence his father was Frank Marshall Davis, and it would be irrelevant if there was.
Is Scruffy a natural born citizen after becoming a natural dead citizen?
You mean other than the fact that he looks like a light-skinned twin brother,and looks nothing like the African suspect? Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Meaning evidence, not your irrelevant nonsense, which, even if you could prove it, would still leave Obama being a natural born U.S. citizen. A child born in Hawaii of two illegal aliens would be a natural born U.S. citizen.
Jeb’s Dead: Adiós Amigo
9:29 PM, Oct 28, 2015 • By JONATHAN V. LAST
#2. To: TooConservative, all (#0)
#3. To: TooConservative, *2016 The Likely Suspects* (#0)
Source: Weekly Standard
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#4. To: Stoner (#2)
#5. To: hondo68 (#3)
Cruz should run in Canada, or Cuba... he's not eligible to be president of the US. Rubio is not really eligible due to two Cuban citizen parents, but he's not doubly ineligible to the extent of Cruz the Canadian Cuban.
#6. To: TooConservative, *Bill of Rights-Constitution* (#5)
not eligible to be president of the US
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#7. To: TooConservative (#0)
(Edited)
So there’s your final six: Trump, Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and maybe—just maybe—Fiorina and Christie.
Carson - non establishment - he's out.
Cruz - non establishment - he's out.
Christie
Fiorina
#8. To: Rufus T Firefly (#7)
(Rubio,Christie,Fiorina)
#9. To: Stoner (#2)
I think that at least Bush, Kaisich, and a few others should throw in the towel & go home.
#10. To: TooConservative (#4)
Cruz and Christie and Rubio might all gain some points and backing to stay in the race.
#11. To: Rufus T Firefly (#7)
So that leaves three possibles - I'll list them in the order I think that the establishment would view them as "palpable"
#12. To: TooConservative (#8)
(Edited)
They may not be able to stop Trump.
#13. To: TooConservative (#8)
WaPo: FACT: Ted Cruz is running the best campaign of any presidential candidate
The senator from Texas is, after all, one of the least-liked members of Congress. He's hated by Democrats as a rank ideologue interested only in furthering his own political ambitions. And, he's hated by Republicans as a rank ideologue interested only in furthering his own political ambitions. Cruz has become, for both parties' establishments, the living, breathing symbol of everything that's wrong with Washington.
#14. To: sneakypete (#10)
Not Christie. He won't be getting any support outside of the northeast. Americans don't vote for foreigners.
#15. To: hondo68, TooConservative, (#6)
But it matters to voters who still have some respect for the US Constitution and the rule of law, like libertarians, and Independents.
#16. To: Rufus T Firefly (#13)
I like Cruz, and I would vote for him if he were the nominee, but I just don't see it happening.
#17. To: TooConservative (#4)
(Edited)
#18. To: Stoner (#17)
#19. To: Fred Mertz (#18)
#20. To: Stoner (#19)
#21. To: Fred Mertz (#20)
" For Auto Link to work you need to remove the 's' from https:// URLs. "
#22. To: TooConservative (#0)
The three winners of the night were pretty obvious: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump.
#23. To: BobCeleste (#22)
(Edited)
#24. To: hondo68, TooConservative (#3)
Cruz should run in Canada, or Cuba... he's not eligible to be president of the US. Rubio is not really eligible due to two Cuban citizen parents, but he's not doubly ineligible to the extent of Cruz the Canadian Cuban.
#25. To: nolu chan, scofflaw globalist (#24)
eligible to be president [somewhere else]
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#26. To: hondo68 (#25)
America is blessed that you're not a Supreme Court justice.
#27. To: TooConservative (#14)
Just because I don't like him at all doesn't mean I think Christie is not a very talented politician. The fat man is a top-notch campaigner, just hoping for a breakthrough moment and the funds to compete.
#28. To: nolu chan (#26)
How many times did the birthers litigate this point re Obama or McCain?
#29. To: sneakypete (#28)
Zero?
#30. To: nolu chan (#29)
At the trial court level the record is 0-225 (with one case pending). All decided actions failed in the pre-trial stage.
#31. To: nolu chan (#24)
They are natural born citizens, over 35 years of age, and eligible to be president.
#32. To: sneakypete (#30)
Judges tend to be political creatures with ambition. You're not going to find one that's willing to go up against the WH and the Justice Department. They all know if they do they have no future.
#33. To: buckeroo (#31)
they are not eligible for my vote.
#34. To: nolu chan (#33)
They are eligible if you want to vote for of them.
#35. To: nolu chan (#32)
hat has not been a judge in history insane enough to go for this birther hogwash.
#36. To: sneakypete (#35)
Demanding our president be an American is NOT "hogwash".
#37. To: buckeroo (#34)
I am voting for my dead dawg scruffy.
#38. To: nolu chan (#36)
There is no evidence his father was Frank Marshall Davis
#39. To: sneakypete (#38)
You mean other than the fact that he looks like a light-skinned twin brother,and looks nothing like the African suspect?
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