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Title: Scott Walker’s last best chance
Source:
Politico
URL Source: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/ ... alker-republican-debate-213664
Published: Sep 16, 2015
Author: Daniel Strauss
Post Date: 2015-09-16 10:39:48 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1180
Comments: 16
Scott Walker needs to reassure his supporters and his donors. And Wednesday’s debate might be his last chance. After a sleepy performance in the first Republican presidential debate that fueled a steep slide in his standing with voters, the governor’s team has pushed him to prepare. Round Two will be different, according to sources inside Walker’s camp. He won’t stop talking before his time is up, as he did at that first debate – a decision that left some of his top backers scratching their heads. He will be more assertive, according to people who have been briefed. And he won’t just answer the moderators’ questions but instead pivot to his personal story. And anything less could spell trouble. "If Gov. Walker lays an egg, he better be prepared to bootstrap his campaign in the coming 3-5 months because his fundraising will dry up," said a veteran campaign manager and GOP operative. Indeed, there is perhaps no one in the Republican field under greater pressure than Walker, who has suffered a miserable fall since entering this contest and being immediately branded a pack leader. Walker’s unremarkable showing in the first debate left even his own team disappointed. And his decline in the polls predictably followed. In the nine national polls conducted immediately preceding the first debate, Walker averaged over 11 percent. In the seven surveys conducted since, Walker’s average score dropped below 5 percent. He has been busy preparing for this critical second debate for weeks, holding a late August practice session in New York City while his advisors assure Walker’s supporters that their man will be livelier. The predicament, according to Republican strategists and operatives in early-voting states, is Walker’s alone. In the very earliest days of the campaign cycle, Walker's strength was undeniable. But in recent months that same campaign has suffered from a number of missteps -- odd or unfortunate statements from the candidate on foreign policy and immigration and an inability to demonstrate self-discipline on the stump (like that time he asserted he is probably the most scrutinized politician in America). He hasn't been able to replicate the resounding praise he got from an early speech in Iowa. And while his campaign more recently has begun rolling out a number of policy platforms on healthcare and labor to switch gears, those proposals have gotten little attention in the GOP primary. Now Walker’s story is one of decline. “He needs to reframe his brand as ‘the underdog who overcomes,’” said Bruce Haynes, the president of the political consulting firm Purple Strategies. “That's the key challenge for Walker -- to move the starting line back to where he finds himself today and reframe what is expected of him going forward, to change the frame from that of being a descendent candidate to an ascendant candidate." Another bad debate and Walker’s days as a presidential candidate could be numbered. Besides his poor polling trajectory, Walker (like all the candidates) faces a Sept. 30 fundraising deadline, and he’ll have to show he can pull in a large-enough sum to sustain a campaign in a field that’s too large for the donor community to support. "I think it’s serious for everybody,” said Nick Ryan, who runs the pro-Huckabee super PAC Pursuing America's Greatness. “He just has a lower margin for error. Walker’s problem is similar to Bush— people liked them better before they were a candidate." Already, he’s at a disadvantage. Former Florida governor Jeb Bush's campaign and supporting super PAC has $120 million raised in the last period. Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio and their PACs clocked more cash in the last quarter too, more than doubling Walker’s $26.2 million haul. (To be fair, Walker’s tally only included super PAC contributions because the candidate hasn’t had to disclose campaign fundraising yet.) So this debate marks a critical moment, and supporters are warning Walker needs to see this as an opportunity for a reset, both to quiet the critics and keep the cash flow strong. “Nothing like a little success,” said one Walker donor, “to quiet things down.”
Poster Comment:
The second-tier and third-tier candidates have to improve their numbers or they will all have money problems unless they have a tycoon in their pocket (Bush, Cruz, Rubio).
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I don't know his future in this race . Maybe he survives once this initial inebriated infatuation with Trump passes. All I know is that I like the cut of his jib. He went into the belly of the beast and survived .In the process he has changed Wisconsin for the better .
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
"Another bad debate and Walker’s days as a presidential candidate could be numbered."
Everyone on that debate stage knows it's do-or-die.
If JEB!, the anointed one with unlimited funds, is polling at 8% (to Trump's 31%), how does Walker (3%) stand a chance?
This is the second debate. The better question is where's the Democrat's FIRST debate?
We've got 16 Republicans on stage chewing each other up while Hillary and Bernie sit back and watch. Where's their immigration plan? Their healthcare plan? Their plan for the VA? Their tax plan?
#3. To: TooConservative (#0)
Calling the other candidates stupid, fat, ugly, and the like, works for The Donald. If you're really desperate, you can go after the moderators too. Give 'em the Meghan Kelley treatment!
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul#4. To: hondo68 (#3)
Trump: "Carly, you ignorant slut, ...".
#5. To: tomder55, misterwhite (#1)
Maybe he survives once this initial inebriated infatuation with Trump passes.
They all had set up for a battle against Bush as the elite pick. Trump upset all their calculations.
Rand Paul and Ted Cruz have girded their loins for a long battle and have tried to campaign in a lot of states that won't pay off until later in the race. They're betting (and they have no choice really) that Donald Fevah will run its course. They keep telling themselves that America has never elected an actual populist or even given them a major party nomination. Andrew Jackson actually campaigned as an orthodox establishment pol though he did have populist support. Other than that, you have a few other like Teddy Roosevelt (Bull Moose) or Huey Long or George Wallace (Dixiecrat) or Ross Perot (Reform). Huey Long probably had the strongest bid as a Dem (until he got shot). But these guys don't win a major party nomination and they don't win the White House. So hanging on until Trumpmania passes is the goal for all these guys.
It isn't a bad bet. The longer Trump runs, the less he can run purely on his own celebrity. And as soon as he has a package of policy proposals - no matter what they are - Trump starts to be Just Another Republican Candidate. And that probably drives his numbers down.
#6. To: TooConservative (#5)
It isn't a bad bet. The longer Trump runs, the less he can run purely on his own celebrity. And as soon as he has a package of policy proposals - no matter what they are - Trump starts to be Just Another Republican Candidate. And that probably drives his numbers down.
I'm not so sure about that, I think it will depend on what he proposes. Since people don't see him as your everyday run of the mill asshole politician they might just buy what he's selling. That being said I'm surprised he's still in the running...
#7. To: TooConservative (#0)
He won’t stop talking before his time is up, as he did at that first debate – a decision that left some of his top backers scratching their heads. He will be more assertive, according to people who have been briefed. And he won’t just answer the moderators’ questions but instead pivot to his personal story.And anything less could spell trouble.
Walkier is at 2% and Bush at 6%. That is trouble.
The most recent national poll is the CBS/NYT Poll 9/9 to 9/13
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/
Trump 27
Carson 23
Bush 6
Rubio 6
Huckabee 6
Cruz 5
Fiorina 4
Paul 3
Kasich 3
Walker 2
Christie 1
Santorum 1
Perry 1
Jindal 0
Graham 0
Trump +4
The RCP average of the four (4) most recent polls indicates:
RCP Average 8/31 - 9/13
Trump 30.5
Carson 20.0
Bush 7.8
Cruz 6.8
Rubio 5.3
Huckabee 4.5
Paul 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Walker 3.0
Kasich 2.5
Christie 1.5
Santorum 0.8
Perry 0.8
Jindal 0.5
Graham 0.3
Trump +10.5
#8. To: TooConservative (#0)
He has been busy preparing for this critical second debate for weeks, holding a late August practice session in New York City while his advisors assure Walker’s supporters that their man will be livelier.
If he is still trying to figure out what to say and how to say it this late in the game,stick a fork in him. He's done.
What this country needs are candidates that speak from their hearts because of their convictions,not yet one more cardboard cutout of a real man that had to be trained what to say things even he doesn't believe in order to suck up to some voter group on the fringe.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#9. To: tomder55 (#1)
I don't know his future in this race . Maybe he survives once this initial inebriated infatuation with Trump passes. All I know is that I like the cut of his jib. He went into the belly of the beast and survived .In the process he has changed Wisconsin for the better .
What do you think about his backtracking on illegal aliens and gun control? Which Walker will show up tonight?
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#10. To: TooConservative (#5)
And as soon as he has a package of policy proposals - no matter what they are - Trump starts to be Just Another Republican Candidate. And that probably drives his numbers down
I can't wait until he is forced back into a corner and has to answer the demand for specifics,and then he starts crying and asking for his mommy.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#11. To: sneakypete (#9)
What do you think about his backtracking on illegal aliens and gun control? Which Walker will show up tonight?
Sounds like he's hired some of those "LIBERAL" political experts that advice CONSERVATIVES to say stupid schitt they claim the voters want to hear...
#12. To: sneakypete (#9)
What do you think about his backtracking on illegal aliens and gun control? Which Walker will show up tonight?
I don't think any of the candidates are perfect . What do you think. of Trump's ,support of gun control ?
It’s often argued that the American murder rate is high because guns are more available here than in other countries. After a tragedy like the massacre at Columbine High School, anyone could feel that it is too easy for Americans to get their hands on weapons. But nobody has a good solution. This is another issue where you see the extremes of the two existing major parties. Democrats want to confiscate all guns, which is a dumb idea because only the law-abiding citizens would turn in their guns and the bad guys would be the only ones left armed. The Republicans walk the NRA line and refuse even limited restrictions. I generally oppose gun control, but I support the ban on assault weapons and I also support a slightly longer waiting period to purchase a gun. [Trump 'The America We Deserve']
or his support for amnesty ? Now, a lot of these people are helping us, whether it’s the grapes, or whether it’s jobs, and sometimes it’s jobs, in all fairness, I love our country, but sometimes it’s jobs that a citizen of the United States doesn’t want to do. I mean, there are jobs that a lot of people don’t want to do. I want to move them out, and we’re going to move them back in, and let them be legal...
Issue by issue you can find a Trump "backtracking" as you call it .
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
#13. To: CZ82 (#6)
Since people don't see him as your everyday run of the mill asshole politician they might just buy what he's selling.
But he is still your everyday run of the mill asshole celebrity attention whore. For most of the public, the idea of 8 years of The Donald Show is likely to be a bit too much.
#14. To: tomder55 (#12)
What do you think. of Trump's ,support of gun control ?
He's lying when he says he is against it. He is a life-long wealthy denizen of the northeast who has mostly contributed to Dims and has been a Dim almost all his life.
When push comes to shove,he will be FOR the right to own and possess guns if you are wealthy,a political figure,or the bodyguard of someone who is.
Trump may even be too much of a liar to be a politician,and that's saying something.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#15. To: TooConservative (#13)
For most of the public, the idea of 8 years of The Donald Show is likely to be a bit too much.
I guess we'll find out sooner or later if it was too much or not, depends on if they think he was "acting" or just being himself.
Some people just love assholes, how many guys do you know that are assholes that have a nice wife and kids??? (Besides me)... :)
#16. To: TooConservative, tomder55, CZ82, liberator (#0)
Walker is out and more will come by the end of the month.
The FEC reporting of funds and expenditures starts 1 Oct.
To Him who loved us and washed us from our sins in His own blood, and has made us kings and priests to His God and Father, to Him be glory and dominion forever and ever. Amen.---Revelation 1:5b-6
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