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Title: Clinton Camp Says One-Fifth of Delegates Secured for Nomination
Source:
Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a ... elegates-needed-for-nomination
Published: Aug 28, 2015
Author: Mark Halperin
Post Date: 2015-08-28 13:23:02 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1181
Comments: 15
As Vice President Joe Biden considers a potential run, Hillary Clinton's campaign is seeking to project dominance at the Democratic National Commitee meeting in Minneapolis.
As Hillary Clinton's campaign seeks to project dominance in a field that could soon include Vice President Joe Biden, her top advisers are touting a decisive edge on a little-discussed metric: superdelegate commitments.
At the Democratic National Committee meeting in Minneapolis, where she will speak Friday, senior Clinton campaign officials are claiming that she has already secured one-fifth of the pledges needed to win the Democratic presidential nomination. They come from current and former elected officials, committee officeholders, and other party dignitaries.
The campaign says that Clinton currently has about 130 superdelegates publicly backing her, but a person familiar with recent conversations in Minneapolis said that officials are telling supporters and the undecided in the last few days that private commitments increase that number to more than 440—about 20 percent of the number of delegates she would need to secure the nomination.
Clinton campaign aides at the DNC meeting are privately briefing uncommitted superdelegates there on their mounting totals as a way to coax them to get them aboard the Clinton train now. Campaign manager Robby Mook, chief administrative officer Charlie Baker, political director Amanda Renteria, and state campaigns and political engagement director Marlon Marshall are among top Clinton aides in attendance.
Final numbers are still in flux, but current estimates peg the total number of delegates to next summer’s presidential nominating convention at about 4,491, meaning that a candidate would need 2,246 to win. The Clinton camp’s claim to more than 440 delegates means she’s already wrapped up the support of more than 60 percent of the approximately 713 superdelegates who, under party rules, are among those who cast votes for the nomination, along with delegates selected by rank-and-file voters in primaries and caucuses beginning next February. Delegate totals won’t be finalized until the DNC determines the number of bonus delegates awarded to states, a party official said.
To be sure, Clinton had a superdelegate edge early against Barack Obama in 2008, and superdelegates are free to change their allegiance at any time between now and next summer's convention. But Clinton is ahead of the pace she had eight years ago in securing these commitments, and her support from the core of the establishment represented by these superdelegates is arguably the most tangible evidence of the difficulty Biden would have overtaking her with a late-starting campaign.
While Clinton said earlier this week that Biden “should have the space and the opportunity to decide what he wants to do,” her campaign is at the same time flexing its muscles to stress the strength of her candidacy. The campaign this week unveiled its first endorsement from a sitting member of the Obama Cabinet, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, who just happens to be a former governor of Iowa and who spent Wednesday touring the state with Clinton.
The Clinton campaign also released memos on Thursday touting the strength of its field operations in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. The memos include specific tallies of thousands of volunteer commitments, dozens of paid organizers, and offices opened, including 11 in Iowa.
Barring some major scandal or controversy, and given Hillary and Bill Clinton's long-standing ties to Democratic Party elites, overcoming her superdelegate edge would be quite a challenge for Biden or the major candidates already competing against her for the nomination, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
The 300-or-so gap between Clinton's public and private superdelegate commitments derives mostly from state party officials who have yet to reveal their backing of the frontrunner, but have privately pledged to cast their convention votes for the former first lady, according to the person familiar with the campaign's tally.
In their Minneapolis discussions intended to persuade additional uncommitted superdelegates to commit to Clinton, her team is taking care not to mention Biden, but the message is clear: Much of the party establishment is supporting Clinton and the math is in her favor. In 2008, Clinton’s team made a version of this argument before being overtaken by Barack Obama. After Obama took the lead in overall delegates, his campaign began to make a comparable argument about the mathematical inevitability of his ultimate victory.
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The Clinton camp’s claim to more than 440 delegates means she’s already wrapped up the support of more than 60 percent of the approximately 713 superdelegates who, under party rules, are among those who cast votes for the nomination, along with delegates selected by rank-and-file voters in primaries and caucuses beginning next February.
IOW, under intense pressure, 40% of the Dem superdelegates won't make a commitment to Hitlery.
The longer her email scandal and foundation sleaziness drags on, the more likely someone like Biden could flip some of the superdelegates that Xlinton is now claiming. The Xlinton camp has every incentive to exaggerate their superdelegate numbers, trying to throw cold water on a Biden run.
#2. To: TooConservative (#1)
Biden will run, and he will be the nominee.
Fiorina will be at the next debate, rules be damned, as the new "stop Trump" spear carrier.
#3. To: cranky (#0)
Clinton Camp Says One-Fifth of Delegates Secured for Nomination
Hard to believe they have that many people locked away incommunicado and nobody is complaining about it,isn't it?
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#4. To: Mark Halperin@Bloomberg, cranky (#0)
Barring some major scandal or controversy, and given Hillary and Bill Clinton's long-standing ties to Democratic Party elites, overcoming her superdelegate edge would be quite a challenge for Biden or the major candidates already competing against her for the nomination, including Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.
You can respond to Mark Halperin by writing a letter to:
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"Under a Rock"
14 East 60th St
New York, NY, 10022
#5. To: TooConservative (#1)
The longer her email scandal and foundation sleaziness drags on, the more likely someone like Biden could flip some of the superdelegates that Xlinton is now claiming.
Nothing is over until its over.
потому что Бог хочет это тот путь
#6. To: sneakypete (#3)
Hard to believe they have that many people locked away incommunicado and nobody is complaining about it,isn't it?
Maybe Craig Livingstone's legacy lives on.
But if it's true that she already has the votes, it certainly explains her total lack of interest in campaigning.
There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
#7. To: TooConservative (#1)
Didn't she play the superdelegates game last time...and obviously failed?
"The grass withers, the flower fades, But the word of our God stands forever.”"---Isaiah 40:8
#8. To: cranky (#6)
" it certainly explains her total lack of interest in campaigning. "
I think the main reason is she does not want to be out where she might face some tuff questions about emails, her foundation, Benghazi, etc, etc, etc.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
#9. To: Stoner (#8)
I think the main reason is she does not want to be out where she might face some tuff questions about emails, her foundation, Benghazi, etc, etc, etc.
But she doesn't face any questions.
Sometimes, her handlers use rope to keep the press away.
She goes weeks without press conferences, just fundraisers.
Personally, I think she's way past her expiration date and she knows it and has for months.
She's just padding her retirement with all this fundraising.
There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
#10. To: cranky (#0)
If Hillary were not worried, she would not be flapping her yap about this.
#11. To: nolu chan (#10)
If Hillary were not worried, she would not be flapping her yap about this.
It's being characterized as a preemptive strike on a possible Biden challenge from what I've read.
There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
#12. To: cranky (#6)
But if it's true that she already has the votes, it certainly explains her total lack of interest in campaigning.
I may be wrong but I think she hates campaigning because she is so arrogant she thinks she should just be crowned,and is pissed at the suggestion she has to convince people she is wonderful.
That,and his superior intelligence is what separates her from Bubba. She thinks she is as smart as him,and all along the only reasons he married her was for protection from groupies looking to trap him into marriage,and so she could be his bag man (bag woman?)and pick up all the pay off money and bribes.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#13. To: sneakypete (#12)
I may be wrong but I think she hates campaigning because she is so arrogant she thinks she should just be crowned,and is pissed at the suggestion she has to convince people she is wonderful.
I agree with all of that but especially with 'she thinks she should just be crowned'.
I think she's awoken to the fact that she is not the anointed one and now she's going to rake in as much cash as she can.
There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't
#14. To: redleghunter (#7)
Didn't she play the superdelegates game last time...and obviously failed?
The Xlintons actually won most of the primaries in terms of delegates awarded by voters. Where Obama defeated them was in having organized delegates ready for the Dem caucus that follows the election, often on election night, which determines who is actually selected to be a delegate.
Obama really cleaned up on these delegates while the Xlintons continued to believe that they would overcome him with sheer vote count, deep party support, etc.
In the end, the supers just decided they liked him better than her. That was how Obama became the nominee, not as a result of the voters selecting him in the primaries. The actual vote and delegate count from the primaries only gets someone within range of the nomination in the Dem party.
While the GOP has superdelegates (party honchoes, elected Republicans, etc.), the superdelegates are less capable of determining the party nominee than in the Dem party where the supers pretty much decide anything that is halfway close. So if you have two candidates in the Dim party and one has 57% of the voter's delegates and the other has 43%, the superdelegates can swing the nomination to the one who only won 43%.
It does make some sense since so many states have open registration for primary voting, allowing indies and members of the other party to vote. Otherwise, the party would be helpless to stop a candidate they consider disastrous to the entire party. If the GOP had more superdelegates as part of their nomination process, they would have more control to ultimately stop a nominee like Trump or Rand Paul, to name a few that the GOP elite might want to reject.
Obama won the Dem nomination by recruiting and community-organizing the county- and state-level delegates. By the time the Xlintons discovered his operation, he already had the table rigged for a 50 (57?) state run to the convention where he prevailed when the supers aligned with him against the Xlintons.
#15. To: cranky (#13)
I think she's awoken to the fact that she is not the anointed one and now she's going to rake in as much cash as she can.
She isn't going down that easy. The Xlintons want back in power. Real bad.
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