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Title: GOPe 2016 Road Map To Victory – Tree House Challenge…
Source:
The Last Refuge
URL Source: http://theconservativetreehouse.com ... -victory-tree-house-challenge/
Published: Aug 9, 2015
Author: sundance
Post Date: 2015-08-19 10:06:13 by Deckard
Keywords: None
Views: 2929
Comments: 18
Most of you are familiar with our earlier prediction. In essence, based on historical and current GOPe events and action, we predicted the GOPe leadership, along with Wall Street and Tom Donohue, would devise a roadmap for Jeb Bush to win the 2016 Presidential nomination. In December of 2013 we found clues to the GOPe roadmap and began watching carefully. In a very general sense the broad construct begins around a very specific premise: The GOPe knew they would need to devise a strategy to elect Jeb Bush with around 15 – 25% of the primary vote, depending on the state – through the first nine calendar primary races. [Dixie states at the low end, and New England states at higher thresholds.] If we were accurate in our hypothesis, which was actually based on their previous 2012 strategy to elect Mitt Romney, the 2014 mid-term visible GOP primary spending on incumbents, and alignments within the hierarchy of the Republican establishment – then we assume there would be two essential candidates: Jeb Bush being candidate one, and Not-Jeb-Bush being the other. This approach makes winning a matter of math, not ideology. The Sum of the Jeb Bush vote must be greater than any individual part within the Not-Jeb vote. That approach guarantee’s Jeb victory with far less than majority voter support. It seemed a little, well, “out there”; so in the Spring of 2014 we quietly established tripwires which would confirm if the roadmap was accurate. One of those overall primary tripwires (about the 4th one) we established in 2014 was the sheer number of candidates that would be needed if Jeb was going to survive the lower support-margin, more conservative, states. Each voting sub-set or ideology within the Republican base, within a specific state, would need multiple options in order for the ‘Not-Jeb’ vote to be kept in check below the “risk margin” allowing Jeb’s small vote count to be victorious. We called this “fracturing the block“. If a single part of Not-Jeb (remember he/she’s a group) began polling higher than Jeb, then add another similar candidate and split Not-Jeb again. Scott Walker, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Rand Paul seemed to be the biggest risk to Jeb. [Example: Tea Party conservative type voters would need multiple candidate options to fracture their voting block: (Walker, Cruz, Jindal, Rubio etc.)] Obviously with 17 candidates, it goes without saying the key and essential tripwire was easily triggered. However, if it had not been – we would have stopped tracking. Specifically because the number of candidate’s tripwire was triggered we began reviewing media notes for primary calendars, Super-PAC financing, inter-party alignment, money and state establishment party support. In order for this GOPe roadmap to succeed, each faction within Not-Jeb needs multiple options for voters. Evangelicals (Santorum, Huckabee), Tea Partiers, Fiscal folks, Moderates, along with voters who might vote based on race (Carson), and/or gender (Fiorina) preferences. These can all be smaller fractures inside Non-Jeb. I’ll be honest, originally (back in 2014) it sounded nuts, but no matter how much we tried to ignore it, the tripwires kept being triggered exactly as it would be if our hypothesis was accurate. Some of those next tripwires in 2015 were specific candidates from high electoral count states that would be needed to act as vote-splitters. Those candidates would need to appear from states holding two specific traits: #1) Early chronological primary states -AND- #2) Large Electoral Count states (especially if “winner-take-all” delegate rules were present). Again, the goal is to keep Jeb afloat by introducing a candidate into the larger “Not-Jeb” group who can remove support from any other larger growing bit of the “non-Jeb” candidate. Hence, South Carolina (Graham), Ohio (Kasich), Texas (Perry), and Florida (Rubio) – with further insurance policies in Virginia (Gilmore) and New York (Pataki). We have now watched 14 tripwires triggered and not a single one missed, including the GOP mid-term primary constructs of 2014, the methods deployed to keep incumbents remaining in their positions, and the state party assemblies which led to Florida, Jeb’s home state, switching to 99 “winner take all” delegates. Just like the number of candidates trigger, the Florida switch to ‘winner-take-all’ was a big trigger. Another huge trigger was Marco Rubio. We said early on the lynchpin would be Florida and the 99 delegates – but there was a risk if Walker, Cruz, Perry and Paul all survived into Florida. (Although I believe the plan works best if Perry drop’s out after Texas “super Tuesday” 3/1/16, or immediately after Louisiana 3/8/16, before Florida 3/15/16) If Rubio had not entered the race the roadmap falls apart. Because without Rubio the Florida strategy for Bush just doesn’t work. The Rubio trip-wire was essential. He did enter, and that triggered the continuance. This GOPe Jeb Bush roadmap also explains the timing of Kasich (Ohio), Pataki (New York) and Gilmore (Virginia) – although Fiorina is also registered homestead in VA. These candidates are like Pac-Man gobbling up delegate votes from more conservative candidates, and planning to drop them back off in the bucket of Jeb Bush after endorsement at specific dates. The plan obviously gets less flexible as the year goes on, and with polling against known “Non-Jeb” pieces they would have had to adjust the candidate splitter options quickly. It would appear they did just that. Candidate Jeb Bush attends Chamber of Commerce dinner with Fox’s Rupert Murdoch and Valerie Jarrett (December 2014) I WANT TO BE WRONG – Because if we are correct, the next 15 months are just about an exercise in futility. #1 – Iowa Caucus/Convention, Monday February 1st 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only) #2 – New Hampshire Primary, Tuesday February 9th 2016: 23 Delegates (proportional assigned) / Modified Primary (Independents and Republicans) #3 – South Carolina Primary, Saturday February 20th 2016: 50 Delegates (Winner Take All) / Open Primary (Anyone Can Vote) #4 – Nevada Caucus/Convention, Tuesday February 23rd 2016: 30 Delegates / Closed Primary Caucus (Republican Only) #5 – SUPER TUESDAY: Tuesday March 1st – 601 Total Delegates #6 – Louisiana Primary, Saturday March 5th 2016 : 46 Delegates (Proportional Assigned) / Closed Primary (Republican Only) #7 – Mini Tuesday: Tuesday March 8th – 130 Delegates #8 – Puerto Rico, Sunday March 13th 2016: 23 Delegates (WTA, if less than 50% Proportional) / Open Primary #9 – GAME DAY: Tuesday March 15th – 234 Total Delegates Green Paper Resource Tool for information on state by state primaries and delegate distribution specifics. 
Here are the primary dates, types, and delegate counts for the first Nine Event Election Days of GOP Primary voting. Can you disprove the thesis?
Take your favorite candidate, keep in mind all the variables, make some reasonable assumptions based on regional ideology, and can you identify a pathway to victory?
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#1. To: Deckard (#0)
The GOPe, in pre-selecting Bush, had not considered the Florida primary slipping from #5 all the way down to #20 in the voting. They assumed Florida would give Bush the momentum to take him all the way. Now I wonder if JEB! will survive until March 15th.
A couple of things: First, since even the gop-e isn't blessed with clairvoyance, there are still unknown factors they have to consider. One - if (like Hilliary Xlinton is turning out to be) "The Jebster" is such a bad candidate that nothing the ruling party can do will make him palatable, they have to have a fallback. I believe Kasich is that fallback. And two - they didn't foresee someone who (so far) cannot be bought or be otherwise controlled in the usual manner - Trump. Now remember that the gop-e is just a branch of the larger entity - the Ruling Party. So far, Trump is just the gop-e's problem. They are expected to deal with it (him). If and when he becomes a "larger" problem - a threat to the ruling class itself - all bets are off. "Blessed is the nation whose God is the LORD . . . " ~Psalm 33:12a
So far, Trump is just the gop-e's problem. They are expected to deal with it (him). If and when he becomes a "larger" problem - a threat to the ruling class itself - all bets are off. Excellent observation.
I wonder how much security Trump has/is hiring. The GOP is backing Hillary. It will be easy for Jeb!/Hillary and the D&R Party to bump Trump off of his pedestal. 2008(McCrazy>> Barack Hussein Obama), 2012 (Willie-Mitt>> Barack Hussein Obama), 2016 (Jeb!>> Hillary). The GOP will never run out of losers, there are millions of registered Republicans! It's so much easier to slam Obama/Hillary than it is to actually lead. Let the crying begin, with crybaby Boehner leading the way once again... I don't know. I hope it is more than enough! He better not go to Dallas! Si vis pacem, para bellum
Like the Hollywood Squares motif:) Especially how they have Rubio drinking from that Poland Springs water bottle:) Nice of the Tree House folks to bring up that image again:)
"When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
You always forget the Dims in your D&R diatribe. Here's one...She's in orange too! "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Her disapproval numbers are huge, and so are Jeb!'s. The only reason she has any chance at all, is because Republicans will run someone at least as bad. When faced with such a horrific no-win situation, many will stay at home as they did when it was Romney vs Obama. You can blame the Democrats, but the Republicans are equally guilty for running such despicable candidates while blocking the good thru their corrupt primary processes and rotten conventions. Yes the Democrats do the same, too. Thank you for your feedback, clearly you understand that Democrats are rotten, but need a lot more examples of Republicans who are as bad or worse. One day you may at last grasp that most basic truth, that there's only one party with two names. Keep coming back! The Maine delegation walks out of the Tampa convention over the GOP's corrupt support for Romney/Obama They'll wack him in NYC so they can blame it on the Democrats. LOL...
Always a pleasure to read your inputs. I mean that. LOL where did you get that pic of Trump? "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
He better not go to Dallas! Or...He better not accept a light buffet meal from Bill Ayers either. "When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
Haven't you heard? Orange is the new black for female criminals. Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
Agree, or from anyone else either. In fact, besides his regular security precautions, he would be wise to arrange for several food tasters. Si vis pacem, para bellum
Under the present situation Trump has got to go, one way or the other, for the benefit of the party elite. He's the biggest threat to the degenerate status quo in over 100 years.
Well I hope the elite fail in their effort to take him out.
Si vis pacem, para bellum
Agree, or from anyone else either. In fact, besides his regular security precautions, he would be wise to arrange for several food tasters. I don't think food tasters would do him any good with food from Bill Ayers, a bomb squad would be more appropriate... Yes, that would be true of Bill Ayers, but do not underestimate TPTB. They would not hesitate to use any means that would do the job. They would not be above poison. Si vis pacem, para bellum
#2. To: Deckard (#0)
#3. To: Rufus T Firefly (#2)
Now remember that the gop-e is just a branch of the larger entity - the Ruling Party.
#4. To: Rufus T Firefly (#2)
So far, Trump is just the gop-e's problem. They are expected to deal with it (him).
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#5. To: Deckard, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#0)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#6. To: CZ82 (#4)
" I wonder how much security Trump has/is hiring. "
#7. To: Deckard, TooConservative, tomder55 (#0)
#8. To: hondo68, tomder55, *2016 The Likely Suspects* (#5)
#9. To: redleghunter, Jeb Hillary 2016, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#8)
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul
#10. To: Stoner (#6)
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#11. To: hondo68 (#9)
#12. To: Stoner, CZ82, TooConservative, tomder55 (#6)
I wonder how much security Trump has/is hiring. " I don't know. I hope it is more than enough!
#13. To: redleghunter (#8)
Here's one...She's in orange too!
#14. To: redleghunter (#12)
" He better not accept a light buffet meal from Bill Ayers either. "
#15. To: Stoner (#14)
(Edited)
#16. To: rlk (#15)
#17. To: Stoner, redleghunter, Liberator (#14)
"He better not accept a light buffet meal from Bill Ayers either. "
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#18. To: CZ82 (#17)
" I don't think food tasters would do him any good with food from Bill Ayers, a bomb squad would be more appropriate... "
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