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Title: Yes, Trump Lost the Debate
Source:
National Review
URL Source: http://www.nationalreview.com/corne ... 4/trump-lost-debate-rich-lowry
Published: Aug 12, 2015
Author: Rich Lowry
Post Date: 2015-08-12 09:37:23 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 17777
Comments: 132
Per this Suffolk University survey in Iowa that is not an online poll like many of the other post-debate surveys. Trump didn’t suffer a catastrophe (he still leads in the state), but the debate hurt him: The Suffolk survey has warning signs for Trump. By 2-1, 55%-23%, those surveyed say watching Trump in the debate made them feel less comfortable rather than more comfortable with him as a candidate for president. A 54% majority also reject Trump’s complaints that he was treated unfairly by the Fox News anchors who served as moderators; 41% agree with him. And a third of Iowa Republicans say Trump – enmeshed in a post-debate contretemps over his comments about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly – “doesn’t show appropriate respect for women.” A larger number, 46%, side with the real-estate mogul and reality-TV star, saying criticism of his comments about women “are just examples of political correctness.” Then there’s this: Trump scores a big lead among those who didn’t watch the debate, at 21%, double the standing of retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who finishes second at 10%. But among those who watched the debate, Trump does less well, tied with Walker at 14%. Meanwhile, Trump still leads in New Hampshire, but is lower than he had been in prior surveys: BREAKING: NEW @FPUniversity /@bostonherald NH POLL @realDonaldTrump 18% @JebBush 13% @JohnKasich 12% @CarlyFiorina 9% pic.twitter.com/lXa1NZ6JAF— Boston Herald Radio (@HeraldRadio) August 11, 2015 And Rasmussen has Trump losing altitude nationally: The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote. Next with eight percent (8%) come retired neurologist Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Ted Cruz at seven percent (7%). (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Poster Comment:
Trump's highest Suffolk poll standing in IA is among people who didn't watch the debate. So Trump polls best among Iowa's Know-Nothings. He could have advocated full-blown Soviet communism and still been their pick.
You can't deny that NR is still a hotbed of Trump haters ("Witless Ape Rides Escalator") so take it all, like any these goofy August name-recognition polls, with a big grain of salt.
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#56. To: TooConservative (#49)
I already understand.
You "understand" the way Republican generally do - which means that you can be counted on to get it wrong.
#57. To: Pericles (#51)
The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him.
All die, as punishment for their own sins, or innocently, as victims of others' sins. It's best not to go where you go out of anger. Leave the judgment to God.
It would be best, for the spiritual disposition of many people, and the good of the world, for Americans in general to give up on the idea of overseas empire and bring our forces home, cut them by 3/4 and put the remainder on the Border to stop the flow. Defend ourselves against existential threats with a strong nuclear arsenal, but save the money otherwise.
And from that position, negotiate peaceful fair trade with the world.
It would be best if we focused particularly on the North - on Canada and Russia - and stopped treating Russia as an adversary. They do not need to be. Their spheres of interest don't cross ours, except in the North, and there we can, and should, jointly cooperate on everything - make Russia/US the Entente Cordiale of the 21st Century.
It would be best if the poor parts that we faced are the ones we neighbor, because the huge military aid we pour into Israel could, if poured into our own decayed cities and Mexico, actually permanently rectify the situation.
It would be best if we did well, and thought well, and acted properly.
#58. To: TooConservative (#53) (Edited)
Look at your own state. How much difference will it make for the EC vote of your state in 2016, no matter what you do, how much you give, how many you try to convert to or from a given candidate.
Nothing I do in the political sphere ever made a difference.
Nor will talking about these things here.
Politics is entertainment for people like you and me, nothing more.
#59. To: TooConservative, Vicomte13, redleghunter (#54)
Biden is a war monger every bit as bloody as McCain and a war criminal for his Kosovo and Serbia war support. The death of his son is probably God's punishment on him. At least I hope it is.You recall how both Biden and the Stain traveled to Georgia as candidates in 2007. Both also are big on the Colour Revolution they helped impose on Ukraine, resulting in the warfare in east Ukraine.
Biden is one of the few who has actually been wrong more often than almost anyone in the Senate over the last 40 years. It is a monumental record of incompetence and wrongheadedness. McStain is barely any better but undoubtedly a bigger warmonger.
I do recall - I used to be a gung ho NATO loving booster fan. When the Cold War fell I just never expected the USA would side with Muslims over Christians - even if they were the weird eastern Orthodox kind.
From the 1990s till today American foreign policy has been a disaster for eastern Christianity - either the USA sides with Muslims against them like in Serbia or its policies lead to destabilized conditions that hurt them.
And Biden and McCain and that hog Clinton have been at the forefront of this American made disaster as well as Bush and the neocons. I can't tell the difference. Literally, this is the thing that makes me say these provocative anti-American things as a way to push people out of their comfort zones. But it is no use. The animals are what they are.
#60. To: TooConservative (#54)
Biden is one of the few who has actually been wrong more often than almost anyone in the Senate over the last 40 years. It is a monumental record of incompetence and wrongheadedness.
What has Biden been wrong about, besides abortion, obviously?
#61. To: Vicomte13 (#60)
You name it, Biden has been wrong about it. He's famous for this.
Then there is his own scandalous conduct over the years.
Sometimes I think you don't pay very close attention to the events of American politics.
#62. To: TooConservative (#61) (Edited)
Sometimes I think you don't pay very close attention to the events of American politics.
I don't.
I pay attention to key Supreme Court decisions, and to who makes those decisions. Therefore, I pay attention to the nominations of those figures.
I pay attention to military and foreign policy decisions.
I pay attention to crony capitalist and tax decisions.
The rest of it is just two parties I despise squabbling over nothing and I don't bother with it.
You say, "You name it, Biden has been wrong about it."
Ok. Where did Biden stand on the privatization of Social Security that the Republicans pushed?
#63. To: Vicomte13, TooConservative (#60)
What has Biden been wrong about, besides abortion, obviously?
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.
#64. To: TooConservative (#53) (Edited)
I think Donald Trump is a greedy, sneaky, vain megalomaniac. Having said that, if the election comes down to him as 3rd Party vs Hillary & Jeb (or Ted Cruz after his ME Christians stunt) I will RUN to the polls to vote for Donald Trump.
I am not a Republican anymore and can't vote in the primary in my state as an independent so all I can do is cheer him along. Paul going after Trump was stupid - his strength is foreign policy and libertarianism and he was acting like an inquisitor for party orthodoxy.
I still long for a European style Christian democrat party (big C, small d) to join but until then I am with Trump.
Also, I think it is time to end our political system. We need to adopt a parliamentary proportional system of governance. Keep the senate at 2 senators each but the house should be apportioned like a parliamentary system. We would see coalition govts and a more honest and representative party system. I am sure within the GOP and Dems are like 8 to 10 different parties.
#65. To: Pericles (#63)
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.
What was the right answer in each?
#66. To: Vicomte13 (#65)
Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Syria, Libya.What was the right answer in each?
The opposite of what Biden advocated.
#67. To: TooConservative (#10)
Trump/Fiorina ticket.
#68. To: Pericles (#64)
I think Donald Trump is a greedy, sneaky, vain megalomaniac.
And those are his good points. ‹/rimshot›
#69. To: All (#0) (Edited)
More Trump related polling. Another new online poll here via HotAir.
Echelon Insights post-debate poll: Trump 29, Carson 10, Fiorina 9, Rubio 9, Bush 9Alternate headline: “Blogger to start gaming out President Trump’s possible VP nominees.” On the one hand, as noted by my pal Karl, this poll was conducted using Google Consumer Surveys. If you’re wary of online polls, especially ones like this that attempt to “infer” important demographic data about respondents based on their browsing history and IP, then discount these results accordingly. On the other hand, Echelon Insights is operated by Kristen Soltis Anderson and Patrick Ruffini, two of the right’s brighter lights in political data crunching. They wouldn’t have published this poll if they didn’t have good statistical reasons to think it’s accurate, I’m sure. Pop the champagne, Trump fans. And make sure it’s only the finest champagne. The classiest.
Footnote: Trump actually dropped three points since the debate. Echelon had him at 32 percent in their last poll. Still, good news on balance given his team’s fears that Megyn Kelly and the Fox crew had turned the public against him. And as many other polls have detected, his support isn’t limited to tea partiers or conservative Republicans. He’s at 26 percent or better here among “traditional conservatives,” “centrists,” and even “libertarians”(!). (Among that same group of libertarians, Rand Paul finished … eighth.) Another point in favor of thinking the poll’s broadly accurate is that it’s picking up major movement for Carly Fiorina, the one candidate more than anyone else whom everyone expected to move after her stellar performance last Thursday. She gained six points since last week overall; among people who actually watched the debate, of which there were many thanks to Trump, she leaped nine points to 12 percent. Rubio, another top debate performer, also hit 12 percent among people who watched. Among people who didn’t, he and Fiorina were stuck at four percent each. So where do we stand now that we’re halfway through the week, with a bunch of post-debate polls under our belts? Harry Enten of FiveThirtyEight looked at the gains and losses across the various surveys that have come out since the debate was held and found that the “winner,” by consensus, is pretty much who everyone thought won on Thursday night.
Fiorina’s improvement isn’t surprising. Scott Walker’s deterioration is, given that the consensus on social media was that he’d been low-key and a bit dull at the debate but hadn’t said anything that should damage him. Walker may be suffering here from high expectations: He’s one of the few candidates whom even low-information Republicans might have heard of going in, thanks to his war with labor in Wisconsin a few years ago and his big poll surge earlier this year. Some segment of Walker fans may have had him as their default “not Trump and not Bush either” choice and then dumped him when he underwhelmed at the debate. (The main beneficiaries from that, I assume, are Rubio and Cruz.) Trump, meanwhile, suffered a modest average loss of just 2.3 points, but that’s really only thanks to the surprising Morning Consult poll from a few days ago showing him gaining seven points after the debate. Five of the other six post-debate polls had him losing ground, and four of them had him sliding four points or more. That’s a bad sign, but when you’re sitting on a 20-point lead, you can slip a little without worry. I’ll bet he prepares for the CNN debate next month no matter what his staff is telling the media about Mr. Authentic refusing to rehearse. |
#70. To: TooConservative (#69)
Scott Walker’s deterioration is,
It'll be Jeb. Which means it'll be Hillary or Biden.
#71. To: Pericles (#67)
Trump/Fiorina ticket.
LOL right. But stranger things have happened.
"When Americans reach out for values of faith, family, and caring for the needy, they're saying, "We want the word of God. We want to face the future with the Bible.'"---Ronald Reagan
#72. To: TooConservative, CZ82, Fred Mertz, tomder55, GarySpFc, buckeroo, Stoner, nativist nationalist, redleghunter (#43)
You know I'm getting the distinct impression that some people are getting upset that you aren't wearing a set of Trump kneepads.Deep down, they know I'm right.
But, like a teenage girl on a fling with some punk their mother disapproves of and their father would like to punch out, you can't talk them out of their summer crush.
It's the only logical explanation. Sorry I didn't give you some credit. Fred too, maybe Gary, I guess. And tomder as well.
Ok, I chuckled. Maybe even actually audibly LOL'ed. "Deep down"? OUCH!
TC can't wear out his Trump kneepads if his GOPe Reince Princess autographed industrial strength kneedpads aren't fully worn down yet.
Oy. And now you're giving out stars for the bulletin board?
My guess is that 2-3 LFers on your "star" list will eventually understand the dynamics, stakes, and identity of the REAL enemy of the REAL battle here.
#73. To: Vicomte13 (#70)
It'll be Jeb. Which means it'll be Hillary or Biden.
It is not too late to stop Bush.
In 2012, if the grassroots had united around a single candidate and stuck with him no matter what, Romney could not have been the nominee.
The Tea folk do seem, in my reading, to understand this.
I think they are flirting around for now but a lot of people will realize they need to pick one guy to stop Bush.
And Scott Walker just happens to be almost everyone's second pick (if he isn't their first pick) and has held that position consistently since polling started on the GOP field.
This would not be the first time that everyone's second pick overcame their first picks. It is true of presidents and often of electing popes as well and for the same very human reasons.
#74. To: Liberator (#72)
TC can't wear out his Trump kneepads if his GOPe Reince Princess autographed industrial strength kneedpads aren't fully worn down yet.
I am such a notorious party hack that I use only military-grade kneepads monogrammed with RNC insignia when I post here.
My guess is that 2-3 LFers on your "star" list will eventually understand the dynamics, stakes, and identity of the REAL enemy of the REAL battle here.
No difference. I won't actually care if I am the last non-Trump supporter here.
#75. To: TooConservative (#74)
I am such a notorious party hack that I use only military-grade kneepads monogrammed with RNC insignia when I post here.
Lol...there ya go.
We already have some dialogue for another Hitler parody! I guess eventually we can flip a coin to see which one of us plays an outraged Fuhrer. Or just wait for Trump's victory.
;-)
#76. To: TooConservative (#73)
It is not too late to stop Bush.
Yep. And Trump is your man, at least if you want my help.
If not him, then Huckabee. No?
Ok, then Carson. Not him either?
Well, then, shucks, how about...Santorum? No. Can't win.
Who's left then? Paul...eesh...ok. Then the rest of your party revolts. They won't have him.
Fiorina? No.
Pataki? No.
Our list of options grows thin.
Rubio? Is he really pro-life? Ok. But he'll lose the general.
Walker? Is he really pro-life? Ok. But he'll lose the general.
Meh. Too much work. I'll stick for the Donald. Not really interested in the seven dwarves.
#77. To: Vicomte13 (#76)
Meh. Too much work. I'll stick for the Donald. Not really interested in the seven dwarves.
One debate in August -- and with a volatile frontrunner like Trump -- and you're ready to award Trump the nomination by acclamation.
How do you know if he has any idea (or intention) of assembling a real campaign?
Recall the 1936 GOP candidacy of Alf Landon in 1936. Or the equally embarrassing GOP campaign of 1940.
| Landon proved to be an ineffective campaigner who rarely traveled. Most of the attacks on FDR and Social Security were developed by Republican campaigners rather than Landon himself. In the two months after his nomination he made no campaign appearances. As columnist Westbrook Pegler lampooned, "Considerable mystery surrounds the disappearance of Alfred M. Landon of Topeka, Kansas.... The Missing Persons Bureau has sent out an alarm bulletin bearing Mr. Landon's photograph and other particulars, and anyone having information of his whereabouts is asked to communicate direct with the Republican National Committee." |
What's yer hurry? Don't you want to even see if Trump is going to campaign?
BTW, Trump's entire campaign is just a couple of people and no one with experience running a national campaign. AFAIK, they haven't even worked on a national presidential campaign. Like Perot, Trump has thus far been incredibly tight with campaign money and is not spending like a real candidate who is preparing to run a political operation in multiple states and then nationwide. The only guy he had, the disreputable Roger Stone, quit him last weekend. I didn't like Stone but he had political experience going back to the Nixon era. You might at least argue he was semi-professional for a 50+ state campaign. I keep wondering if Trump really is willing to do all the travel and do all the events expected of a presidential candidate. It's a pretty grueling schedule for over a year.
#78. To: TooConservative (#7)
Maybe I am the last non-Trumpster (other than Choo-Choo Man) here at LF.
Nope.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#79. To: GrandIsland (#9)
Suck it up, closet libtard haters.
The ones that are going to have to suck it up in the end are the closet librard lovers,like you.
Why is democracy held in such high esteem when it’s the enemy of the minority and makes all rights relative to the dictates of the majority? (Ron Paul,2012)
#80. To: TooConservative (#77)
You have no clue.
#81. To: TooConservative (#43)
So Trump is good for business at Fox News and at LibertysFlame. : )
To me Trump keeps stepping on his own dick and before long will only have the support of the "hard cores".
He has to learn to "Engage brain before engaging mouth" if he wants to have a chance...
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#82. To: TooConservative (#77)
Like Perot
Whom I supported.
#83. To: A K A Stone (#80)
You have no clue.
I do have a clue about Trump's ground operation, or rather the lack of it.
All the other serious candidates are building ground operations with chairmen and renting offices and hiring staff. These things don't happen magically, done overnight by little elves.
A few others like Pataki and Gillmore and Graham are the only ones who are not building up campaign organizations. You realize that the ground campaign organizations for the primary season are the basis for building up your ground operation for the general election campaign. AFAIK, Trump hasn't even opened a single campaign office yet, let alone hired real staff for them.
As unfair as it is, you can't win IA or NH or SC just by flying in a few times on your private 757 and telling the press how lucky the voters are that you are willing to accept the nomination from the fine people of the state.
Wait until Trump meets Iowa's corn and pig farmers. That should be fun. And campaigning 14-16 hours a day? Trump is really going to do that? I just can't quite imagine it.
I keep wondering if Trump will be the Second Coming of Fred Thompson. Go out to the Iowa state fair, putt around on a golf cart and basically never get heard from again. Giuliani didn't fare so well either and was reduced to a Floriduh strategy but by then McCain had big momentum and deep party backing.
#84. To: CZ82 (#81)
He has to learn to "Engage brain before engaging mouth" if he wants to have a chance...
He really needs to study. Basic stuff about the world, about the actual policy issues. He makes Sarah Palin look like a genius by comparison. He's lived in his little Donald Trump World in NYC for so long, he doesn't pay attention to a lot of issues that the country will expect its next president to know something about.
Walker's and Bush's preparedness are questioned but Trump doesn't even qualify. Plus, he flipflops around on issues like funding or defunding PP. Who knows what he thinks about it? No one.
#85. To: TooConservative (#77)
I keep wondering if Trump really is willing to do all the travel and do all the events expected of a presidential candidate. It's a pretty grueling schedule for over a year.
Trump can stand in one place, get the media, and reach the whole country.
He is a celebrity, a star. He doesn't have to go shake hands in diners like nobody high-school class presidents who have worked their way up through the professional political cycle have to.
He's not coming in to be a politician, he's a billionaire stepping in to the throne, and he fully intends to bypass all of the usual crap that common people have to do to get elected, by using his star power and money to do it his way.
He has the eye and attention of the nation. Whatever he does, anywhere, gets attention. Nobody expects stars to go to diners. And he doesn't have to either, because people form an opinion of him from the broader brush media. They've had him in their living rooms and quoted them more than Obama. And everybody in the country has liked him in some way.
They may have come to dislike him for his political positions or bluster, but at some point everybody did like him, and that's never true of a career politician. Career politicians are nobodies whom you have to encounter because they press themselves onto you for a job.
Trump is already somebody. He's asking you to hire him for a few years for a specific task, a big task. He doesn't have a politician's equipment - and may not NEED it to get elected. People are sick of professional politicians and party hacks. We all see them as incompetent, corrupt, petty assholes. And we're right.
Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win. And no, they would not have to undergo a "grueling campaign". A few stops in a state to sold out crowds, televised everywhere, and they'd be rock stars.
People pretend that Clinton was a rock star, or Obama, and as politicians they sort of were. But Trump is a TV star, and Oprah (yes, I'm having fun, but she IS eligible for the office, having at least one American citizen parent) - she's one of the most successful entertainers ever.
Trump can do it his own way, and win. I'm going to support him no matter what.
I've got no party. I hate both the parties. I look down on professional politicians. I don't think that what political people do with their lives is worthwhile. I do not view it as "serving me" or public service at all. I view it as a combination of c-rate theater and mob pressure on people. Politics diminishes the people who do it.
Trump is interesting. He's not a politician, and that's to his benefit in getting people like me to follow him, and vote for him once. If it turns out to be a disaster, so what? LBJ was a disaster. Nixon was a disaster. Carter was a disaster. H.W. Bush was a disaster, and W Bush was a disaster. Trump cannot be worse than them. Unlike all of them, he actually successfully has run something hard, and real, for years. Rising in politics is not an achievement I respect, because I do not think that what politicians and civil servants do is really worthwhile activity. Nor do I think it is particularly hard, when compared with making money.
Also, politicians do get rich, but that is entirely through corruption. Trump and real businessmen who have gotten rich actually did it in a way that seems straightforward and legal to me.
I know, TL;DR
Well, you're missing a lot.
#86. To: sneakypete (#78)
Nope.
You're right. It's over 3 months until the (worthless) IA caucus. I keep noticing how the Trump backers seem to be insisting that The Donald be coronated immediately. Fascinating. What's wrong, don't they want to see him run a 50+ state campaign?
When will Donald visit (or send a surrogate) to the early contests in the six American territories that can award convention delegates. I recall Romney's sons going there and cleaning up.
#87. To: TooConservative (#84)
Who knows what he thinks about it? No one
He'll look at the subject intently, make a decision, and move on.
What politicians do is not "hard work". They're not bright people.
#88. To: TooConservative (#83)
As unfair as it is, you can't win IA or NH or SC just by flying in a few times on your private 757 and telling the press how lucky the voters are that you are willing to accept the nomination from the fine people of the state.
Frankly that is the opinion of a nobody.
#89. To: TooConservative (#83)
Giuliani didn't fare so well either and was reduced to a Floriduh strategy but by then McCain had big momentum and deep party backing.
Yes he did. And all of that immense effort, and spending money on political people to do very busy things, was all useless.
Suppose with movie star quality one can simply leap past that waste, and leap past having to hire all of those useless people, and connect directly with voters and get their votes.
Trump is doing that.
He changes the game because of charisma and celebrity. It's why he will win unless the Republicans start throwing procedural barriers against him. His opponents cannot do that, only the GOP apparatus itself can. And will.
Biden will be a decent President.
#90. To: Vicomte13 (#85)
Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win.
Have mercy.
Go back to Biden. It's slightly less insane.
#91. To: Vicomte13 (#85)
Trump/Oprah is a brilliant ticket because it would certainly win.
Oprah is a racist c word.
He was joking when he said that. Someone asked him about it at some Oprah event and he said sure or something to that effect.
#92. To: TooConservative (#84)
He's lived in his little Donald Trump World in NYC for so long
Yea it's a place where everybody says "Yes sir" no matter what crap comes out of his mouth...
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#93. To: A K A Stone (#91)
Oprah is a racist
He's been told that before...
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
#94. To: Vicomte13 (#89)
Yes he did. And all of that immense effort, and spending money on political people to do very busy things, was all useless.Suppose with movie star quality one can simply leap past that waste, and leap past having to hire all of those useless people, and connect directly with voters and get their votes.
Giuliani still had that whole America's Mayor think, he had approval in the mid-sixties in almost every state despite some people knowing how liberal he was on abortion and gun control. And he really had a tin ear on the subject. He got dispatched by the various interest groups who defined who and what he was.
I see no reason why Trump has any better chance. Like I said before: Trump but not Giuliani (who was obviously capable of running a large government as an executive)? You've got to be kidding.
#95. To: CZ82 (#92)
Yea it's a place where everybody says "Yes sir" no matter what crap comes out of his mouth...
You really notice how he refuses to appear on TV for interviews despite the fact that Trump Tower is only a few blocks from the major news studios. Instead, he won't leave his penthouse and travel a few blocks to appear like any other candidate engaging with the press in a normal campaign about issues.
Raising the non-campaign of Alf Landon was not just an idle remark. Trump really doesn't travel well. Recall his attempt to run in 2012 when he flew his Trumpcopter up to NH for a big announcement. He got about 75 reporters there, kinda hemhawed around, told them he's the greatest, and then flew back to NYC, not to be heard from again.
Trump has fizzled when it came to actual campaigning before.
#96. To: TooConservative (#95)
Raising the non-campaign of Alf Landon was not just an idle remark.
Damn that was waaaaaayyy before my time...
“Let me see which pig "DON'T" I want to vote for, the one with or without lipstick??" Hmmmmm...
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