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Title: Uh oh: Trump down nine points after debate in new Rasmussen national poll
Source:
HotAir
URL Source: http://hotair.com/archives/2015/08/ ... n-new-rasmussen-national-poll/
Published: Aug 11, 2015
Author: Allahpundit
Post Date: 2015-08-11 21:53:00 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 1446
Comments: 11
The good news for Trump fans via Rasmussen: He’s still leading the field. The bad news: For the first time since the start of Trumpmania, he’s losing ground rather than gaining it. Fiorina and Rubio both had strong debates on Thursday so an accurate poll should, one would think, show them building support since last week. That’s what Rasmussen shows, to the point where Carly’s now in the top five. Moreover, one of the theories by Trump naysayers about his polling is that it’s deceptive insofar as it’s picking up (in some cases) supporters who are unlikely to actually vote in the Republican primaries. Ask an average American adult who’s not politically engaged who he/she prefers in a field of Donald Trump and 16 unknowns and you’re likely to hear “Donald Trump” in reply — even if that person has no intention of casting a ballot. Rasmussen seeks to control for that by polling only likely Republican voters. Within that group, they’re finding a nearly 10-point drop for Trump since last week. That’s not the only poll out today with bad news, though. Suffolk polled Iowa and found Trump still leading there at 17 percent, which is in line with how we was doing in several pre-debate polls there over the last few weeks. Among people who watched the debate, though, the results were ominous: When asked if Trump was targeted unfairly by Fox’s moderators, 54 percent said no. When asked who was the most impressive at the debate, 23 percent said Marco Rubio, 22 percent said Ben Carson, and 11 percent said Ted Cruz. Slightly less than 11 percent said Trump. (For what it’s worth, despite Carson disappearing during the debate for long stretches, I’ve heard several conservative friends say how impressed they were with him. If Trumpmania begins to fizzle, Carson may be the guy who starts picking up Trump’s “no more politics as usual” support despite the fact that they’re polar opposites in personality.) Although Trump’s favorable rating in Iowa is now net positive at 45/37, he’s far behind his most serious competitors there in that metric: Scott Walker is at 73/13, Rubio is at 72/12, Carson is at 78/7(!), and Cruz is at 64/17. Quote: One more poll for you, this from another early state. The Boston Herald and Franklin Pierce University polled New Hampshire after the debate and found, once again, Trump still in the lead. But he wasn’t the big mover this time — and his support was noticeably lower than it’s been in other recent NH polls: .@bostonherald @FPUniversity NH #FITN poll: @realDonaldTrump 18%, @JebBush 13%, @JohnKasich 12%, @tedcruz 10%, surging @CarlyFiorina 9%. — Jen Miller (@jenbmiller) August 11, 2015 The last four polls in New Hampshire had Trump at 21, 24, 24, and 32 points; this is the first time he’s been below 20 since late June. No crosstabs available yet, but presumably it’s the rising Kasich and Fiorina who have gobbled up some of his support. Kasich’s strategy, a la Jon Huntsman, is to all but skip Iowa and camp out in New Hampshire, hoping to stun the establishment frontrunner in the primary there next year and launch himself into serious contention for the nomination. Nate Cohn of the NYT looked at that Herald poll this morning and wondered if this month will be remembered in hindsight not for Trumpmania but as the month when Kasich became a serious enough contender in New Hampshire to threaten Jeb Bush. If you’re a Trump fan who’s bummed out about his new numbers, take some comfort in that. If Kasich cuts deeply enough into Jeb’s take in NH, it could enable some other candidate to sneak through to victory, all but destroying Bush’s campaign before it gets going. Second look at Kasich? Poster Comment: These August polls are still only name recognition polls but they show Trump damaged himself at the first debate. As a side note, we are already seeing polls of likely voters where normally you see only polling of the public or of registered voters. Normally, they save most of the likely voter polls for last-minute polling in a big state like Florida in the primary or for the last few months before the general election. I’m not telling you these polls are correct, just like I didn’t tell you yesterday that that bombshell Morning Consult survey showing Trump rising to 32 percent after the debate was correct. We’re tracking all of the polls this week to see what the consensus says, as that’ll be a reasonably good indicator of where the race really stands right now. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds Trump with 17% support among Likely Republican Primary Voters, down from 26% in late July before the first GOP debate. Senator Marco Rubio and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush are in second place with 10% support each, in a near tie with Fiorina and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker who both earn nine percent (9%) of the likely primary vote…
Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard and the candidate generally viewed as the winner of the B-level debate last Thursday evening, has jumped eight points from one percent (1%) support in the previous survey…
Rubio has doubled his level of support from five percent (5%) in late July. Carson has gained slightly. Walker has fallen back five points, while support for Bush and Cruz has held steady.
“It appears that Donald Trump’s lead is strong so long as the number of active opponents remains above a dozen,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. “If the Republican field were winnowed down to five or six candidates, Trump’s 17 percent probably wouldn’t be enough to win in Iowa, as polling indicates that his further growth has limitations. The long-shot candidates staying in the race help keep Trump on top—at least for now.”
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#1. To: TooConservative (#0)
Check out the Dim vs Pubbie match-up polls. Hillary Rotten Clinton wins by double digits - and - surprise...her closest match-up is with JEB! I realize these polls are a snap shot in time.
What do these "publick polls" actually measure for any serious citizen genuinely interested in a presidential candidate? Here, I shall help discuss the interest for you: diddly-squat.
Really? You mean like the polls proved that Prime Ministers Netanyahu of Israel and Cameron of Britain were both losing in a landslide until the day of the election when they suddenly won in a landslide? Polls, schmolls. Now we have new polling companies no one has ever heard of with bizarre polls (like someone like Trump has paid them off). And a glorified PollDaddy corporate survey firm is being passed of as NBC's new polling partner. The polls are bad at measuring public opinion and they're getting much worse and are much more transparent nonsense than even the older libmedia biased polling we've had for years.
Et tu, buckus? LOL.
Please wake me up when a presidential candidate has values, morals and ethics beyond principals rooted in US Constitutional foundations beyond what they yap about.
Note that these days the Rasmussen name is Mr. Rasmussen's only connection with the Rasmussen polling company. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports The final Rasmussen Reports' pre-election polls showed Obama winning Nevada and New Hampshire, tying Romney in Ohio and Wisconsin, and losing in the other five swing states, including North Carolina. Obama won in the swing states of Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, and Virginia, while Romney took North Carolina. A Fordham University study by Dr. Costas Panagopoulos compared pre-election polling with the results from election day. The study ranked Rasmussen Reports 24th out of 28 polls in accuracy, one slot above Gallup. An analysis by Nate Silver on FiveThirtyEight ranked Rasmussen 20th out of 23 pollsters for accuracy in the 2012 elections with an average error of 4.2 points. After the election, James Rainey of the Los Angeles Times wrote that "Some conservative media outlets used the Rasmussen polling to prop up a narrative in the final days of the campaign that Romney had momentum and a good chance of winning the White House." http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology Rasmussen Methodology [A]utomated polling systems use a single, digitally-recorded, voice to conduct the interview while traditional firms rely on phone banks, boiler rooms, and operator-assisted technology. The use of robocalls means no cell phones. Automated calls means whoever answers the phone can participate.
You're playing awfully hard-to-get. I hope you're not waiting by the phone for Mr. Right to call.
Well, sometimes people do retire. I thought Rasmussen's high point was in the 2004-2010 timeframe. I would compare Rasmussen in its heyday with the company profile of PPP today.
Scott Rasmussen did not retire. He is only 59. At one time Rasmussen polls were very highly regarded. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Rasmussen In July 2013, Rasmussen left his position as president of Rasmussen Reports. In a press release from Rasmussen Reports, the company confirmed Rasmussen's departure and said, "In part, the move reflects disagreements over company business strategies. ... The Company emphasized that Mr. Rasmussen's legacy remains intact. His polling methodologies and protocols, widely acknowledged as among the most accurate and reliable in the industry, continue to guide and inform the company’s public opinion survey techniques. In addition, the editorial culture of excellence that he built is still very much in place." After his departure, Scott Rasmussen announced the creation of Rasmussen Media Group, to "develop and invest in digital media opportunities." Rasmussen Media Group said that the "new venture reflects a transition from Rasmussen's role as a scorekeeper in the nation's political dialogue to becoming a more active participant," especially in critiquing "crony capitalism and the unholy alliance between big government and big business." Rasmussen wrote a column about the changing landscape of the polling industry, writing, "New technology will fundamentally alter the ways that polls are conducted. Other online techniques will replace polling entirely in some situations. These shifts will be good for everyone except those who defend the status quo."
Hey! What about Suffolk University in Iowa? They do polling, too.
http://libertysflame.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=41306&Disp=101#C101
#2. To: TooConservative (#0)
#3. To: Fred Mertz (#1)
Hillary Rotten Clinton wins by double digits - and - surprise...her closest match-up is with JEB!
#4. To: buckeroo (#2)
What do these "publick polls" actually measure for any serious citizen genuinely interested in a presidential candidate? Here, I shall help discuss the interest for you: diddly-squat.
#5. To: TooConservative (#4)
#6. To: TooConservative (#0)
The final Rasmussen Reports daily tracking poll showed Mitt Romney with 49 percent national support and President Obama with 48 percent national support. Obama won the election by close to 4 percentage points.
Fordham Study: Public Policy Polling Deemed Most Accurate National Pollster In 2012
Data for Rasmussen Reports survey research is collected using an automated polling methodology. ...
#7. To: buckeroo (#5)
#8. To: nolu chan (#6)
Note that these days the Rasmussen name is Mr. Rasmussen's only connection with the Rasmussen polling company.
#9. To: TooConservative (#8)
Well, sometimes people do retire.
Departure from Rasmussen Reports
#10. To: nolu chan (#6)
"The study ranked Rasmussen Reports 24th out of 28 polls in accuracy, one slot above Gallup."
#11. To: misterwhite (#10)
Hey! What about Suffolk University in Iowa? They do polling, too.
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