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Title: The Trump Goes On
Source:
Weekly Standard
URL Source: http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs ... campaign-will-end_1007525.html
Published: Aug 8, 2015
Author: Steven F. Hayes
Post Date: 2015-08-10 07:34:18 by Tooconservative
Keywords: None
Views: 8224
Comments: 146
It’s not over. And it’s likely to end badly. In an interview on CNN last night, Donald Trump suggested that Megyn Kelly’s tough questioning was inspired by her menstrual cycle. “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes,” Trump told CNN's Don Lemon on Friday night. “Blood coming out of her—wherever.” He refused to apologize, of course, but after widespread condemnation, Trump, who is running on candor and straight talk, sought to explain his comments in a Tweet. “Re Megyn Kelly quote: ‘you could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever’ (NOSE). Just got on w/thought.’” It’s a comment that might end any other presidential campaign. Trump is different, in part because this isn’t a campaign. It’s an extended media-driven ego ride. From the beginning, he’s played by different rules because the media have let him. Trump works just blocks from the headquarters of the major broadcast and cable outlets. But as he’s rolled out his Trump for President brand, he has gotten journalists to come to him. He sits for interviews in the gilded atrium of Trump Towers, a nice home field advantage and one that sets him apart from the other politicians sitting in boring studios. Trump has conducted frequent telephone interviews on cable networks, sometimes several times a day, and last weekend did “phoners” on two Sunday morning political shows. (Has any other candidate this cycle, in either party, been given an opportunity to do a television interview by phone?) If he were asked policy questions, the arrangement would give him an unfair advantage, with the opportunity to answer questions with a cheat sheet in front of him and Google at his fingertips. But substantive questions about the country and its problems are the exceptions in Trump’s conversations with journalists, who prefer to ask him about his latest controversial comment or seek to provoke the next one by asking him about his opponents. (Trump’s comments about Kelly didn’t provoke any follow-up questions from CNN host Don Lemon, whose interview with Trump continued for several more minutes). So the cycle continues: Trump says something outrageous that may or may not have any relevance to serving as president, he’s asked about it in a largely substance-free interview, and ratings climb—along with Trump’s name ID and poll ratings. Trump is right, sadly, when he boasts that he is partly responsible for the 24 million viewers who tuned into the debate Thursday night. He has convinced himself that people watch because they love him and in a limited sense, he’s probably right about that, too. While I suspect that the Trump hype is driven by curiosity more than admiration, there is no doubt some segment of the population that is properly understood now as “Trump supporters.” That segment is small and will be shrinking in the coming weeks, but it won’t disappear. The true Trump apologists are way too far in now. They've invested too much to bail on him. So his defenders will become increasingly desperate to convince people that this is all part of the establishment's failure to understand their anger and the media's failure to appreciate Trump’s appeal. That’s backwards. It's not that the media have failed to give Trump enough credit; we’ve given his supporters too much. We assumed that at some point they'd embarrassed to be associated with him: If not his slander of Mexican immigrants, then perhaps his mockery of POWs; if not his kindergarten Twitter insults, then perhaps his sad and compulsive boasting; if not his incomprehensible answers to substantive questions at the debate, then maybe, finally, his juvenile and misogynistic put-down of the female moderator Those who still remain Trump supporters seem to be beyond shame. It doesn’t matter that they’re angry about the incompetence in Washington. Turning to Trump to solve the problems in Washington is like turning to an ape to fix a broken refrigerator. It’s embarrassing, but rather than embarrassment, the Trump followers will feel more anger and their pose will shift from self-righteousness to victimhood. And many of them will dig in further. More worrisome, for conservatives and for the country, so will Trump. As he’s abandoned by more rational beings, Trump, a man of deep and evident insecurity, will need these remaining supporters as validation that it’s the world that’s gone crazy, not him. They will encourage him to march on, guided by the misapprehension that there are many more behind them, perhaps hard to see, but following in the distance nonetheless. Trump will tout this support and insist, unconstrained by reality, that he can win. (This is the man who continues to say Hispanics love him and will support him, despite polls showing his favorability among Hispanics in the mid-teens). As Republicans scramble to distance themselves—with many candidates denouncing his remarks about Kelly, as they had his mockery of John McCain—Trump will feel the swelling pride of a man whose bluff is being called. Treat me nicely or I’ll leave, he warned repeatedly. This is why Bret Baier’s first question Thursday was the single most important question of the debate. Although Trump had left open the possibility of running third party, in the days leading up to the debate he had backed away from those threats. “I’m pretty confident in the answers I’ve gotten from him,” Sean Hannity said Wednesday night. “I’ve asked him a few times. I’m pretty confident he’ll never run third party.” Less than twenty-four hours later, Trump reversed himself again, raising his hand to show he wouldn't pledge support for the eventual Republican nominee. When Baier asked if Trump meant to be conveying what he seemed to be saying, Trump responded, twice: “I fully understand.” Trump threatened to leave if Republicans treated him badly. Now, because he’s a churl and a buffoon, Republicans have no choice but to treat him badly. It’s foolish to pretend to know how it all ends. But one thing is certain: It won’t end well.
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Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 64.
#8. To: TooConservative (#0)
Read that? Steven Hayes thinks Trump supporters are shameless. You're shameless! You're idiots! You're crude and politically incorrect! You're gun- toting, God-fearing, hard-working, tax-paying boobs! Now get with the program and support JEB.
I'm pretty sure Hayes is a Walker supporter. The WI GOP has Hayes, Greta, and Reince Priebus handy to produce Walker puff pieces. Trump's rise makes serious problems for Walker to challenge Bush because Trump's presence is likely to unify all the tycoons and party establishment behind Bush to stop Trump early. A field of 17 means that Trump can carry his celeb-based candidacy a long time after Florida, maybe all the way to the convention. Trump can gets lots of attention for free and doesn't need to build his brand-name with voters like other candidates because everyone knows who he is. Only Bush (and Clinton) has comparable name-brand recognition.
Meaning we can hardly expect his article about Trump to be objective and fair. "Only Bush (and Clinton) has comparable name-brand recognition." And not in a good way. Which explain why Jeb Bush's campaign has signs saying JEB! (leaving out the Bush part). Vote for Jeb You-Know-Who and be proud you did!
Not really a hidden agenda that much with Hayes. He did a big podcast on Walker, his fellow-Cheesehead, when he announced on 7/13. It was a total puff piece, real man-crush material. Hayes followed a few days later with Walker's Agenda: 'Reform, Growth, Safety'. So not much of a hidden agenda, the bias is obvious. I had the feeling he volunteered for or got picked as WS's main reporter on all things Walker, who is still expected to be a player for the GOP nomination. It does underline why some media figures were banking on covering certain GOP candidates through next year and how they end up calling Trump an "ape" because he's threatening their little tea party.
I'm in northern Illinois, so I hear and read about what Walker is doing in Wisconsin on almost a weekly basis. (Mark Belling -- a Rush substitute host -- broadcasts from Milwaukee.) I think Walker would make a great President, and he's my choice. That said, right now he's a voice in the wilderness, along with all the other candidates. Trump is sucking all the oxygen and blood out of the room. (A little "common phrase" humor there.) Quite frankly, I like what Trump is saying and doing. Perhaps he's the man we need today. Now when I look at all the other candidates -- even Walker -- all I see are establishment types, willing to go along to get along, same-o, same-o. I gotta admit. It's depressing.
Maybe that's his actual purpose. A ringer for Xlinton? A ringer for Bush? A ringer for both Xlinton and Bush (who would both prefer to fight it out with each other in the general election rather than risk losing the nomination for themselves). Trump virtually guarantees a Bush v. Clinton 2016 matchup. With or without Trump as a third-party candidate. It's maddening how many different ways Trump can play this to his advantage. This could be purely a play by Donald for some sweet business deal he's after. He really is fully leveraged against the entire GOP primary field with options to be a player in the 2016 election. And he can cut all kinds of side deals along the way, like with Adelson. Or Soros. Whoever. Maybe Donald just wants to be worth $20 billion and he's going to screw with the 2016 election until someone gives it to him (or lets him buy into one or more of their upcoming sweetheart deals with them paying all the financing costs).
The latest poll puts Trump at 23%. So if Trump goes away, you think that 23% will go to Bush? Sorry, but I see Trump and Bush supporters at opposite ends of the spectrum.
No. But some people really do just go with the biggest name they've heard. Now that is Trump. With Trump gone, it would be Bush. Assume that counts for 5%-10% of the total GOP vote (about a third of all Trump's supporters). Then figure another 5% are Dims who are just diehard Trump fans. Like those two crazy black ladies on YouBoob. Then 5% to Cruz, 4% to Carson, 3% to Walker, 2% to Kasich, 1% to Rand Paul. And you've accounted for where Trump's voters go (if they go anywhere and don't just stay home, many of them being inactive voters, just as they were with Perot). Do you see how, with his $120M initial warchest and Wall Street backing, Bush shuts down all the challengers after a big win in Florida? Look at how Romney mopped up the field slowly with his superior resources, despite Gingrich winning a state and Santorum winning 5 or 6 states (or was it more?). Wish for a Trump and the greatest certainty is that the GOP will nominate Bush.
I think there are about 20-21 primary states before Florida, so a lot could happen before then -- with or without Trump. Yes, Bush should take Florida. But right now he has only an 8-point lead over Trump. So he is vulnerable.
Florida is still #5. IA/NH/NV/SC/FL. Anyway, I think NV is after NH but maybe it's before NH. Floriduh is the first big contest. In 2008 and 2012, Florida tried to move up its primary and also award all its delegates as winner-take-all (whereas Florida is part of the bloc of states that have agreed to award delegates proportionally). Florida did this to try to make itself the kingmaker of GOP primary states (just like NH and SC both try to be the kingmakers). Supposedly in 2016, Florida will hold its primary on the allotted day and will award delegates proportionally. If this had been done in 2012, you might have seen a big move for Newt! as the GOP nominee as Newt (and the lovely Callista) drained tycoon Adelson and his wife dry on donations running an expensive media campaign in Florida, trying to wrestle the nomination away from Romney. After Florida, Adelson threw in the towel, Newt dropped out, and Santorum became the final anyone-but-Romney candidate which allowed him to win more states but always with Romney pulling further and further ahead in delegates. I think that is likely to happen with Bush too. It is the natural strategy for any party insider like Romney or Bush with the biggest warchest. This is exactly why they covet a big warchest so much.
I see you take SurveyMonkey very seriously. It's a corporate cloud-based PollDaddy. Not real phone polling. Remember, when you see Chuck Todd, it's all lies. SurveyMonkey is just as silly as all those (self-selected) instant texting polls that FNC tried to in 2012 ("text #9921 if Romney won,text #9922 if Gingrich won, text #9923 if Ron Paul won", etc.). The Ron Paul techie types naturally figured out how to bomb them with fake votes for Ron Paul. I recall Vannity going completely insane over Ron Paul winning those, time after time despite Fox trying to get everyone to text their votes in just so Ron Paul wouldn't win again. Very funny stuff.
Here's what Realclear has so far. These polls will matter as we get closer: Seems Trump is leading in most state polls right now. Even in a virtual dead heat with Bush in FL. Interesting tidbit is only Bush and Walker seem to do better against Hitlery head to head. Trump is down 10 pts against Hitlery in NH. Again it is early. Who knows what happens when Trump gets bored with this political game and where his current base will go. Right now I think many people see Trump as a protest vote against Bush. Hitlery by the polling linked is cleaning up state by state. She is in the 50s in most states and no one even close. Guess the Dim voters don't care she is a liar.
morningconsult.com/2015/0...after-debate-controversy/ I expect TC to say it is a conspiracy and not real.
#67. To: A K A Stone (#64)
It's all name identification at this point. Trump is at 98% name recognition, ahead of Hillary! and ¡Jeb!
Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest"Those who still remain Trump supporters seem to be beyond shame."
#13. To: misterwhite (#8)
Now get with the program and support JEB.
#15. To: TooConservative (#13)
"I'm pretty sure Hayes is a Walker supporter."
#21. To: misterwhite (#15)
Meaning we can hardly expect his article about Trump to be objective and fair.
#30. To: TooConservative (#21)
(Edited)
"Walker, who is still expected to be a player for the GOP nomination."
#34. To: misterwhite (#30)
That said, right now he's a voice in the wilderness, along with all the other candidates. Trump is sucking all the oxygen and blood out of the room.
#42. To: TooConservative (#34)
"Trump virtually guarantees a Bush v. Clinton 2016 matchup. With or without Trump as a third-party candidate."
#45. To: misterwhite (#42)
The latest poll puts Trump at 23%. So if Trump goes away, you think that 23% will go to Bush? Sorry, but I see Trump and Bush supporters at opposite ends of the spectrum.
#51. To: TooConservative (#45)
"Bush shuts down all the challengers after a big win in Florida?"
#53. To: misterwhite (#51)
I think there are about 20-21 primary states before Florida, so a lot could happen before then -- with or without Trump.
#58. To: TooConservative (#53)
#59. To: A K A Stone (#58)
(Edited)
#63. To: TooConservative, A K A Stone, tomder55 (#59)
SurveyMonkey is just as silly as all those (self-selected) instant texting polls that FNC tried to in 2012 ("text #9921 if Romney won,text #9922 if Gingrich won, text #9923 if Ron Paul won", etc.). The Ron Paul techie types naturally figured out how to bomb them with fake votes for Ron Paul. I recall Vannity going completely insane over Ron Paul winning those, time after time despite Fox trying to get everyone to text their votes in just so Ron Paul wouldn't win again. Very funny stuff.
#64. To: redleghunter, tooconservative (#63)
Replies to Comment # 64. I expect TC to say it is a conspiracy and not real.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 64.
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