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politics and politicians Title: Two new polls show Ted Cruz in top tier of 2016 GOP field He was tied for third place at eight percent in WaPo’s December poll, so maybe this is just a bounce. Or, per PPP, maybe not: The key detail: Not only is Cruz eating up some of Walker’s conservative support, he’s also (predictably) now eating up some of Ben Carson’s and Mike Huckabee’s. Carson dropped from 18 percent in PPP’s last poll to 10 percent this month while Huckabee’s dipped from 10 percent to six percent. That’s exactly what Cruz needs to give him legs in the primaries. The more social conservatives decide they prefer the polished, full-spectrum conservative to the novice Carson or the squishier Huck, the likelier it is that Cruz will consolidate values voters. That would make him a legit threat in Iowa and South Carolina. And yeah, granted, Cruz has a unique poll advantage at the moment in that he’s the only candidate to have officially declared that he’s running; Carson, Huckabee, Walker, and Paul will all receive bounces of their own when they announce, carving off pieces of Cruz’s support — in theory. In practice, I’m not sure that’s true: It’s easy to see why Christian conservatives would migrate from Carson to Cruz, who checks all the same values boxes and is far better versed on policy. It’s not easy to see why they’d shift the opposite way, even after Carson formally jumps in. I think Cruz and Huck and will consume most of Carson’s support over the rest of the year, with social cons left divided between the two of them. You would think that’d be an easy match-up for Cruz given how many tea partiers love him and disdain Huckabee, but I don’t know. Huck will be positioning himself as a full-spectrum conservative for the primaries too, with little daylight between him and Cruz on most foreign and domestic policy questions. Once that happens, it may come down to a choice between their respective personal styles for many social cons, which would be a bad omen for Cruz given how personally popular Huckabee is among Republicans. (His favorable rating is routinely among the best of all GOP candidates.) Cruz’s campaign strategy over the next six months will be to convince voters that Rand Paul is far too squishy on foreign policy to be trusted while Huckabee is far too squishy on domestic policy. That’s his best shot at becoming a consensus social-con choice. There’s an X factor too that might help keep Cruz in the top tier even after everyone else has jumped into the pool. The brighter the spotlight shines on religious liberty after the RFRA wars in Indiana and Arkansas, the greater the opportunity for Cruz — and Huckabee — to impress conservatives by speaking out loudly and often as Christian champions of freedom of conscience. Dave Weigel joked on Twitter yesterday that he’s putting 20 bucks on Huckabee to be the first GOP candidate to show up in Walkerton, Indiana and buy a slice from Memories Pizza, but there’s political truth behind that gag. Huck and Cruz will spend the next nine months competing to be the most stalwart defender of values in the primary. The more the news involves conflicts over values, the more center-right voters may come to appreciate their message. And maybe not just center-right voters either. Oh, by the way: According to PPP, Chris Christie’s favorable rating among GOP primary voters right now is … 24/57. Hillary’s probably isn’t much worse. Poster Comment: Cruz vs. Walker vs. Huckabee vs. Carson. I thought the writer got pretty close to the truth here: the Religious Right will have to find one candidate to back or find themselves powerless. And their leaders know it. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 24. In the contest for the Republican nomination, Bush tops the field with 20 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents saying they would support him if their primary or caucus were held today. He is followed by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 13 percent and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 12 percent. Five other Republicans receive at least 6 percent support, with an additional six candidates at either 2 or 1 percent. Bush, Cruz and Walker are the only three to register noticeable gains since the last Post-ABC survey on the GOP race in December. I think Rand Paul may turn out to be the "Bill Clinton" of the primary season. NOT his politics, but his wait and let the bigger wolves eat each other first.
#2. To: redleghunter (#1) (Edited) I think Rand Paul may turn out to be the "Bill Clinton" of the primary season. NOT his politics, but his wait and let the bigger wolves eat each other first. Maybe so. No doubt he's reviewed how his dad was savaged by the rest of the GOP pack in 2008 and 2012. Ron kinda made himself a target by going Full Libertarian at times so he was sorta asking for it. Not that it looked so nice for the rest of the GOP candidates to browbeat a frail elderly man. But Rand won't be so sympathetic a figure as his dad was either. But this is a Cruz thread. I did like how AP discussed the Tea vote and how it breaks, who is gaining and losing in that segment of the activist base and most dogged primary voters.
#3. To: TooConservative, redleghunter (#2) Cruz and Huckabee are Southern Baptists. Carson is a 7th Day Adventist. Walker is a non-denominational Christian.
#4. To: Vicomte13 (#3) Carson is a 7th Day Adventist. Walker is a non-denominational Christian. Carson's dad was a 7th Day preacher. Not sure if Carson still belongs. Walker's dad is a retired Baptist preacher but Walker attends some generic evangelical church.
#5. To: TooConservative (#4) Walker attends some generic evangelical church. "Generic evangelical"?
#6. To: Vicomte13 (#5) "Generic evangelical"? Would you prefer "crypto-evangelical"? A lot of no-brand evangelical churches would have been your run-of-the-mill Baptist churches or charismatic churches a generation ago. Now, many avoid the labeling just to try to get people through the door. A lot of evangelical churches should be called same-as-Baptist or same-as-charismatic.
#7. To: TooConservative (#6) There's a charismatic branch of Catholicism. When I had my visions I was pointed in their direction. I appreciate the enthusiasm, but honestly, I'm a smells-and-bells choir-and-stained-glass sort of guy. Truth: I sing in the choir so that I'll go. Also because they don't pass the collection plate in the choir loft. I sing. That's my bit.
#8. To: Vicomte13 (#7) Also because they don't pass the collection plate in the choir loft. Shrewd. Some Baptists know the same dodge.
#12. To: TooConservative, Vicomte13 (#8) Also because they don't pass the collection plate in the choir loft. Certainly shows the focus. I moved a bit in the Army and most churches I attended did pass a plate around. But the three Evangelical churches I went to had a 'drop box' at the door. Everyone put in what their heart led them to put in. The flip side is those megachurches. One of my NCOs told me once he joined one of those churches, he was inprocessed like he was entering the Army. He went from station to station filling out forms and one was a 'Direct Deposit' 'gift' sign up form. If he filled it out his weekly or monthly donation would be taken out from his pay electronically. Of course the 'suggested rate' was 10% or more. How most churches are run these days it is no longer an organism but an organi$ation.
#13. To: redleghunter (#12) How most churches are run these days it is no longer an organism but an organi$ation. It is appalling. They've become brand-name franchises. I mostly blame Rick Warren and his church-growth philosophy. You might also recall how he "sanitized" Obama during the joint appearance with Obama and McStain back in 2008. Another reason to dislike and distrust him. And a lot of other brand-name preachers and their megachurches.
#15. To: TooConservative (#13) I figure my singing IS my gift. There's the extra time before the mass, and the weeknight practices. I have no excess to speak of anyway. My wife sits in the pews and puts something in the pot every week.
#16. To: Vicomte13 (#15) Like you should even care so much about my opinion anyway...
#17. To: TooConservative (#16) Like you should even care so much about my opinion anyway... Well, I think there's a basic understanding of right and wrong in people. I think it's installed in us before we're born. So, people's opinions about things that seem wrong to them are worth listening to. I often tell myself that, in truth, it would be better if I just stopped posting on the Internet completely. It takes a lot of time that could be improved. It never accomplishes anything, in my experience. It makes me think of people standing outside of buildings smoking cigarettes. It's not good for them. It's expensive. It's a waste of time. It's just an addiction, and pure negative. The Internet gets that way. I know that if I put up a blog, it would be an empty and barren place. I've seen friends do this, put up sites, and then have nobody come. it's humiliating. On chat boards, there are people to engage with. But ultimately, really, this is cigarette smoking for the mind. A time sump. I should stop this.
#19. To: Vicomte13 (#17) But ultimately, really, this is cigarette smoking for the mind. A time sump. I think you overestimate how much can be accomplished but underappreciate the actual influence of your posts. But, no, you aren't going to change the world by posting on anon message boards. It's a little too 20th century.
#20. To: TooConservative (#19) I think you overestimate how much can be accomplished ... It's a little too 20th century. This is the part that frustrates me. People should hearken to the truth, change when they hear it, and go forth to do the right thing, together. (Too First Century?)
#21. To: Vicomte13 (#20) People should hearken to the truth, change when they hear it, and go forth to do the right thing, together. (Too First Century?) The majority don't generally choose to do the right thing. They do the convenient thing, the easy thing, the familiar thing. That was true in the first century as well. Those early churches were always embattled and oppressed minorities.
#22. To: TooConservative (#21) Yeh. Truth is, the world doesn't WANT to be saved.
#23. To: Vicomte13 (#22) Scripture warns us this will always be true. It's true in secular contexts as well. Human beings, what are you gonna do...
#24. To: TooConservative (#23) Human beings, what are you gonna do... Me? Teach the truth. Get ignored and ridiculed. Get frustrated, pissed and resigned, by turns. Walk away. Then recapture the desire to "see what people are saying", and start conversing, and pretty soon, be back at the head of the cycle.
Replies to Comment # 24. Maybe you expect a little too much from an anonymous chat board.
End Trace Mode for Comment # 24. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest |
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