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Title: U.S. Manufacturing Unexpectedly Shrank as Orders Slowed
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012- ... eased-to-49-5-in-november.html
Published: Dec 3, 2012
Author: Alex Kowalski
Post Date: 2012-12-03 10:40:27 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 5168
Comments: 8

Manufacturing in the U.S. unexpectedly contracted in November as orders dropped to a three-month low and exports slowed.

The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index decreased to 49.5, the lowest since July 2009, from 51.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. Economists projected the index would ease to 51.4, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A reading of 50 marks the dividing line between expansion and contraction.

Less corporate investment in equipment as U.S. lawmakers debate the nation’s budget, weaker orders from overseas and disturbances related to the biggest Atlantic storm in history are converging to slow manufacturing. Eleven of the 18 industries covered in the report reported business shrank last month.

“Manufacturing has slowed down,” Joshua Dennerlein, an economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York, said before the report. “Manufacturers have to prepare for demand down the road, and they’re not actually sure what it’s going to be.”

Stocks pared gains after the report. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent to 1,418.44 at 10:27 a.m. in New York after climbing as much as 0.5 percent.

Estimates for the ISM index from the 83 economists surveyed ranged from 49 to 53.5. The gauge averaged 55.2 in 2011 and 57.3 a year earlier.

Europe’s Economy

Other reports today showed euro-area manufacturing kept contracting in November while factory output rose in China and Russia, underscoring the divergence of the global economic recovery.

Manufacturing output in the 17-nation euro area shrank for a 16th month, with a gauge of manufacturing rising to 46.2 from 45.4 in October. In China the Purchasing Managers’ Index climbed 50.6 and in Russia it expanded for a 14th month.

The ISM’s index of U.S. new orders dropped to a three-month low of 50.3 in November from 54.2. The production increased to 53.7 last month from 52.4 in October. The gauge of export orders dropped to 47 from 48. The employment index decreased to 48.4, the lowest since September 2009, from 52.1 the prior month.

The index of prices paid dropped to 52.5 last month from 55. A measure of supplier deliveries increased to 50.3 from 49.6.

Order Backlogs

The measure of orders waiting to be filled was little changed at 41 after 41.5. The inventory index decreased to 45 from 50, while a gauge of customer stockpiles slumped to 42.5 from 49.

Other regional manufacturing reports showed weakness last month, much of it in areas hit by Sandy. Factory activity in the New York-area contracted in November for the fourth consecutive month as the storm knocked out electrical power and limited activity, disrupting about 70 percent of businesses that were surveyed by the Federal Reserve. Output in the Philadelphia-area shrank for the sixth time in seven months.

Seven of 12 Fed districts reported “either slowing or outright contraction in manufacturing,” the central bank said last week in its Beige Book business survey, which reflected information collected before Nov. 14. The Cleveland, Richmond and St. Louis areas said business was positive.

Apart from the storm’s impact, uncertainty surrounding the so-called fiscal cliff of about $607 billion in automatic tax increases and spending cuts slated for 2013 if lawmakers fail to act is leading businesses to curb investment. Five of 12 Fed districts expressed concern about next year’s outlook, partly due to the lack of clarity about the budget, the report said.

Business Spending

Business spending on equipment and software fell 2.7 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter, the first drop since the expansion began in mid-2009. Capital spending has decelerated for four quarters.

There’s also risk overseas demand for U.S-made goods will slow further. The euro-area economy hasn’t expanded for a year, and China’s economic growth has slowed for seven quarters.

“Business levels are not bad,” Jerald Fishman, chief executive officer at chipmaker Analog Devices Inc. (ADI), said on a Nov. 27 call with analysts. Still, “there’s so much uncertainty out there in Europe and the U.S.”

Fishman said that because of a lack of clarity on government tax policies, “people are just standing still and that impacts their capital spending budget.”

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#1. To: Brian S (#0)


Come on. Unexpectedly? Everyone knew the economy would do worse if the usurper stole the election.

A K A Stone  posted on  2012-12-03   10:43:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#2. To: A K A Stone (#1)

Come on. Unexpectedly? Everyone knew the economy would do worse if the usurper stole the election.

O so close, A K

And now that we're Bestest Buddies, per Fibr Dog (Lulz), we need to get better co ordinated...;}

'Unexpectedly' is what we've been seeing regularly since the Oct 08 Bail out.

'Strange....maybe not so strange' (Vichy Police Man to Ingrid Bergman/Casablanca;)

O and that was the US Military that Foiled Rove's 'Tunnel' in the Election. Blame them.

They've also been busy doing the Countercoup:

Capt Ted Williams, removed from Command of the MT Whitney, Nov 19, added to

Darlak, Sinclair, Gaouette, O'Reilly, Ward, Ham, Petraeus, Allen.

The War of 9/11 is over.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-12-03   10:49:43 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#3. To: A K A Stone (#1)

Come on. Unexpectedly? Everyone knew the economy would do worse if the usurper stole the election.

Everyone knows the economy is in a downward spiral.

It didn't matter which sock-puppet won; the mathematics are inescapable.


The ultimate result of Democrat party politics:

Shari Doyle, before and after her salvation by Democrat operative Janet Reno.

Aren't you socialists PROUD???

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-12-03   12:40:25 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#4. To: mcgowanjm, *Neo-Lib Chickenhawk Wars* (#2)

The War of 9/11 is over

The new and improved, invasion of Africa is just beginning.

Kphony 2012 lives! Even Gary Johnson wanted to send troops against the Lords Resistance Army. Like OBL, Kony is long dead, but that won't stop them.

"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Hondo68  posted on  2012-12-03   12:51:45 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#5. To: Capitalist Eric (#3)

Obama was voted in by the moochers. The so called makers voted for Romney. Different bases, different candidates. It is the height of stupidity to think you would get the same results. But keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

A K A Stone  posted on  2012-12-03   13:07:39 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#6. To: A K A Stone (#5)

Obama was voted in by the moochers.


The so called makers voted for Romney.

Also agreed.

However, your underlying assumption is that there was a fundamental difference between the two. As we've discussed repeatedly, that assumption is unproven (and unprovable, one way or the other).

Different bases, different candidates.

Again, I agree. Given the two, at least superficially, Romney offered a better future for the business environment, so producers would naturally choose Romney versus the POS that actually won.

It is the height of stupidity to think you would get the same results. But keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel better.

Again, you make assumptions not proven. Even worse, all the empirical data points to the exact opposite. My particular feelings are utterly irrelevant to the discussion.

Again, the mathematics are inescapable. This doesn't make me "feel better." It is, what it is.

You would be wise to start preparing for economic collapse, while you still can. There's not much time left...

The ultimate result of Democrat party politics:

Shari Doyle, before and after her salvation by Democrat operative Janet Reno.

Aren't you socialists PROUD???

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-12-03   13:35:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#7. To: A K A Stone (#1)

How about those construction spending numbers and auto sales. The affect of Hurricane Sandy aren't even baked into these numbers yet.

You poor, whining 'sad-sacks'. Setting on the curb and watching as the good economic numbers leave y'all in the dust.


Never swear "allegiance" to anything other than the 'right to change your mind'!

Brian S  posted on  2012-12-03   15:10:36 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

#8. To: hondo68 (#4)

The new and improved, invasion of Africa is just beginning.

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mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-12-04   8:48:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  

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