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Title: World Economy in Best Shape for 18 Months
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012- ... hape-since-2011-investors.html
Published: Nov 29, 2012
Author: Rich Miller
Post Date: 2012-11-29 10:37:27 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 3543
Comments: 10

The world economy is in its best shape in 18 months as China’s prospects improve and the U.S. looks likely to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Two-thirds of the 862 surveyed described the global economy as either stable or improving. That’s up from just over half who said that in September and is the most since May 2011.

The U.S. came out on top for the eighth straight quarter when investors were asked which markets will offer the best opportunities over the next year. China ranked second, reversing a decline to fourth in the September poll of investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. The European Union, beset by a debt crisis, was seen offering the worst returns.

“The global economy is improving, recovering and healing, thanks to the U.S. and the emerging markets,” said Andrea Guzzi, a poll respondent and vice president of IST Investmentstiftung fuer Personalvorsorge, which manages money for Swiss pension funds. “More people are becoming wealthy, less and less are poor.”

Stocks were seen as the asset of choice, with more than one in three of those surveyed on Nov. 27 forecasting equities would have the best returns in the coming year. Real estate came in second: Just less than one in five investors singled it out favorably, the best showing since the quarterly poll began in July 2009. Bonds were seen as offering the worst returns.

Fed Purchases

The Federal Reserve is expected to provide continued support to the bond market after its Operation Twist program ends next month, according to the poll. About three in four said the U.S. central bank will begin outright purchases of Treasury securities after its plan for swapping short-dated securities for longer-dated ones expires.

A plurality -- two in five -- said the Fed also will continue buying mortgage-backed securities into 2014, a strategy dubbed QE3 by investors, shorthand for the third round of quantitative easing by the central bank.

“The Fed is being very clear about monetary policy,” Gala Prada, a poll respondent and portfolio and asset manager for Fiatc Mutua de Seguros y Reaseguros, a Barcelona- based insurance company, said in an e-mail. “If the economy doesn’t improve, there will be a QE4 or more asset purchases.”

Tighter Rules

The growing optimism among investors about the world economy was not reflected in their views of the prospects for the financial services industry. About seven in ten said they expect large banks to reduce payrolls further in the next year after cutting at least 188,000 jobs over the last two years. A majority blame regulatory changes for the reductions.

Banking authorities have tightened rules and raised capital standards on banks after the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression forced governments to spend billions of dollars to rescue ailing financial institutions.

“Many countries have oversized banking sectors, which need to go back to more sustainable sizes,” Guzzi said in an e-mail from Zurich.

The optimism on the world economy is based in part on an expectation that the U.S. will avert $607 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases scheduled for Jan. 1. Three out of four surveyed anticipate that President Barack Obama and Congressional leaders will reach a short-term agreement to avoid the fiscal cliff.

OECD Warning

The 34-nation Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris warned this week that the world economy would tip into recession if the U.S. failed to act.

Close to half of investors said they plan to increase their exposure to equities over the next six months, up from less than two in five in September.

Respondents are most bullish about U.S. equities. A majority forecast that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will rise during that time frame. S&P 500 futures rose 0.6 percent to 1,415.8 at 7:08 a.m. in New York amid optimism President Barack Obama will reach an agreement with Congress over a new budget. The stock gauge has increased 12 percent this year.

“U.S. companies have better profit potential, balance sheets and access to capital,” Christian Thwaites, a poll respondent and president and chief executive officer in New York of Sentinel Investment, which manages more than $27 billion, said in an e-mail.

Property Prices

U.S. property prices also are heading up, investors said. More than three in five forecast that housing values would be higher six months from now. A minority responded that way in the last poll in September.

Home prices rose in the year ended in September by the most since July 2010, climbing by 3 percent, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities.

The housing market has been supported by the Fed, which has said it expects to hold overnight interbank rates near zero until at least the middle of 2015.

Forty-five percent of investors said the U.S. central bank would enhance understanding of its policies and help the economy if it tied its pledge to keep rates low to specific thresholds for unemployment and inflation. One in four said such a move would be confusing if such a goal-oriented commitment replaced the Fed’s current calendar- specific rate promise.

The Fed itself is split over the issue. Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans have supported a switch, while Philadelphia’s Charles Plosser and the Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher have voiced doubts.

Commodities, Bonds

Commodities lost some favor in the latest survey. Only 12 percent said it will be the best- performing asset class over the next year, down from 18 percent in September.

Investors remain downbeat on bonds. Forty-eight percent intend to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds over the next six months, the most since the poll began asking that question in May 2011. By a slim margin -- 50 to 45 percent -- respondents viewed Treasuries as a safer investment than AAA- rated U.S. corporate bonds, such as those of Microsoft Corp. and Exxon Mobil Corp.

More than two of five investors expect European Union markets to offer the worst opportunities over the next year. That was the most negative reading in the poll, followed by Japan, with 23 percent, and the Middle East, with 17 percent, up from 7 percent in September.

Iran Strike

Forty percent of respondents are less likely to put money into Egypt since President Mohamed Mursi took over in July -- 10 times the amount who said they are more likely to invest.

Protesters and police clashed in Cairo on Nov. 28 as Egypt’s opposition resolved to stand firm against Mursi and the Muslim Brotherhood in a showdown over his self- decreed powers.

Half of those surveyed said they don’t expect a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program in 2013.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly warned that time is running out to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb, which he expects to be aimed at Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who regularly denounces Israel as an illegitimate regime that should “disappear,” says his country’s nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

The poll of Bloomberg customers was conducted by Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa- based company. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

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#1. To: Brian S, *Crime and Corruption* (#0)

Stocks were seen as the asset of choice

Isn't that what they said before the Black Friday crash of '29?



"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Hondo68  posted on  2012-11-29   11:07:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: hondo68 (#1) (Edited)

Isn't that what they said before the Black Friday crash of '29?

Yeah.... that could happen again, as the Pubbies did get rid of Glass-Steagal, which stopped banks from also being investment firms.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-11-29   11:13:29 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: mininggold, *The Two Parties ARE the Same* (#2) (Edited)

the Pubbies

Woodrow Wilson: 28th President of the United States, from 1913 to 1921. A leader of the Progressive Movement... and a Democrat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson

Started the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme. A bipartisan screw job, but the Dems were in the lead.



"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Hondo68  posted on  2012-11-29   11:22:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Brian S (#0)

The world economy is in its best shape in 18 months as China’s prospects improve ...

LMAO. China is in the midst of housing and manufacturing bubbles that dwarfs the American bubble. And those bubbles are in the process of collapsing right now. China's prospects are the same as the rest of us, except they've got a little problem... of 1.5 billion hungry mouths to feed.

And when they can't, those people are gonna' go apeshit on the government. It's gonna' get bloody for them, watch and see.

the U.S. looks likely to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff, according to the latest Bloomberg Global Poll of investors.

Typical wishful thinking. There's NO way to avoid the fiscal cliff. There's no way to avoid the financial collapse that is coming- it's mathematically impossible.

Two-thirds of the 862 surveyed described the global economy as either stable or improving.

Again, more wishful thinking.

Your article is a friggin' joke.

I could continue to chew up this propaganda, but why bother? The point is easily made, and anyone with critical-thinking skills will recognize your lies for exactly what they are...

The ultimate result of Democrat party politics:

...
Shari Doyle, before and after her salvation by Democrat operative Janet Reno.

Aren't you socialists PROUD???

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-11-29   12:01:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: hondo68 (#3)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson

Started the Federal Reserve ponzi scheme. A bipartisan screw job, but the Dems were in the lead.

Her level of indoctrination is impressive.

The ultimate result of Democrat party politics:

...
Shari Doyle, before and after her salvation by Democrat operative Janet Reno.

Aren't you socialists PROUD???

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-11-29   12:06:48 ET  (1 image) Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: hondo68 (#3)

Woodrow Wilson: 28th President of the United States, from 1913 to 1921. A leader of the Progressive Movement... and a Democrat. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodrow_Wilson

The Southern Dems who had a big say in the party then are now Republicans thanks to Nixon.

But I only can address and try to change back events that occurred in my lifetime. Glass-Steagal which seemed to work reasonably well for years was terminated by Bush and his banker friends, directly creating the recession we are still not out of.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-11-29   12:07:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Capitalist Eric (#5)

Her level of indoctrination is impressive.

As you continue to stutter on the sidelines without even one original thought in your head.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-11-29   12:09:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: mininggold (#6)

I only can address and try to change back events that occurred in my lifetime

It's in your Acorn union contract?



"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Obama's watch stopped on 24 May 2008, but he's been too busy smoking crack to notice.

Hondo68  posted on  2012-11-29   12:13:12 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: hondo68 (#8)

It's in your Acorn union contract?

Naaah but the IDF says they have your last paycheck waiting.

Almost every country in the Middle East is awash in oil, and we have to side with the one that has nothing but joos. Goddamn, that was good thinkin'. Esso posted on 2012-01-13 7:37:56 ET

mininggold  posted on  2012-11-29   12:16:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: mininggold (#7)

you continue to stutter on the sidelines without even one original thought in your head.

LMAO!

Considering you mouth the socialist talking-points, that's funny!

Thanks for the laughs. :)))

The ultimate result of Democrat party politics:

...
Shari Doyle, before and after her salvation by Democrat operative Janet Reno.

Aren't you socialists PROUD???

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-11-29   12:33:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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