LF: Democrats, Independents Boost U.S. Economic Confidence; October's Economic Confidence Index Score Tied For Best Monthly Reading Since 2008

Title: Democrats, Independents Boost U.S. Economic Confidence; October's Economic Confidence Index Score Tied For Best Monthly Reading Since 2008
Source: gallup
URL Source: http://www.gallup.com/poll/158528/d ... boost-economic-confidence.aspx
Published: Nov 6, 2012
Author: gallup
Post Date: 2012-11-06 13:36:19 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 362

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Independents' economic confidence improved four percentage points, to -20, in October, the highest monthly level of confidence among this group since 2008. Democrats also saw a gain of four points last month, to 27, a four-year high. Republicans' economic confidence held steady at -59, tied with September for the lowest monthly score of the year.

Gallup Economic Confidence Index -- by Political Party

Partisans' opinions of the economy have become more polarized in the two months leading up to the election, with an 86-point gap separating Republicans' and Democrats confidence in October -- the largest party divide of the year and a significant increase from January's 43-point gap.

Democrats on a weekly basis have held net positive economic views since the end of January, while Republicans' negativity has increased. Independents have held the middle ground, but their economic confidence has grown less negative since early September.

The improvements in Democrats' and independents' economic confidence contributed to a two-point uptick in the overall monthly Gallup Economic Confidence Index in October. The index averaged -17 last month, tying May 2012 for the highest reading since Gallup began Daily tracking in 2008.

Gallup Economic Confidence Index -- Monthly Averages,
January 2008-October 2012

Americans' Economic Outlook Improves Significantly

The growth in economic confidence last month reflects improvement in both components of the index -- one of which assesses current economic conditions and the other that assesses the nation's economic outlook.

Americans' net economic optimism -- that is, the percentage saying the economy is getting better minus the percentage saying it is getting worse -- improved significantly to -10 in October, up from -13 in September. This is the most positive economic outlook score since the inception of Gallup tracking. Americans continue to be more likely to say the economy is getting worse than better -- 53% vs. 43% respectively.

Net perceptions of current economic conditions -- that is, the percentage rating the economy "excellent" or "good" minus the percentage calling it "poor" -- are now -24, up two points from September. Sixteen percent of Americans now say the economy is excellent or good, while 40% say it is poor.

Gallup Economic Confidence Subindexes -- Monthly Averages
Since January 2011

Bottom Line

Improvements in economic confidence seen this year have primarily been the result of improved views of the economy held by Democrats. In the two months prior to the election, however, the improvement in the economic views of independents, a key voting bloc, also contributed significantly to the rise in the monthly Gallup Economic Confidence Index. While the improvement in independents' economic confidence may be a positive sign for President Barack Obama's re-election chances, the overwhelming majority of Americans still say current economic conditions are fair or poor, and more than half say the economy is getting worse rather than better.

Positive economic news over the past two months, such as unemployment rates moving below 8.0% -- as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Gallup have reported -- likely have contributed to Americans' improved assessments of the economy and of the economic outlook. It remains to be seen whether the election's outcome will affect Americans' economic confidence.