@fivethirtyeight Obama's win probability peaked at 87% on 10/4, last day before polls reflected Denver debate. Fell to 61% on 10/12. Now fully recovered.
@fivethirtyeight Obama becoming a heavier favorite, in 538's view. Now 86% to win Electoral College. fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com 5 Nov 12
@fivethirtyeight Obama unlikely to win by anything like his post-DNC margins. But Romney has no momentum, Obama's state polling is robust, and time is up.
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