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Title: Housing Declared Bottoming in U.S. After Longest Slump Since World War II
Source: Bloomberg
URL Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012- ... eclared-bottoming-in-u-s-.html
Published: Apr 25, 2012
Author: John Gittelsohn and Prashant Gopal
Post Date: 2012-04-25 11:19:29 by Brian S
Keywords: None
Views: 1510
Comments: 5

The U.S. housing market is showing more signs of stabilization as price declines ease and home demand improves, spurring several economists to call a bottom to the worst real estate collapse since the 1930s.

“The crash is over,” Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Home sales -- both new and existing -- and housing starts are now off the bottom.”

Data released yesterday showing better-than-estimated new- home sales and a slowdown in price declines are bolstering optimism that the market is poised for a sustainable recovery. Economists including Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ’s Chris Rupkey, Bank of America Corp.’s Michelle Meyer and Mark Fleming of CoreLogic Inc. are also predicting prices are close to a trough after a 35 percent slump from a July 2006 peak, even as the threat of more foreclosures loom to boost supply.

Values in 20 U.S. cities fell 3.5 percent in February, the smallest 12-month drop since February 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller index showed yesterday. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s home-price index, which measures properties with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, had a 0.4 percent rise for the same period, according to a separate report.

New homes sold at an annual pace of 328,000 in March, up 7.5 percent from a year earlier, the Commerce Department said. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey forecast a rate of 319,000. The pace of sales for February was revised upward to 353,000, a two-year high. Consumer Confidence

A report on consumer confidence yesterday showed the most important signal that housing can only go up, said Rupkey, chief financial economist for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York. The Conference Board said its confidence index was at 69.2 in April, compared with a revised 69.5 in March. Beneath the headline number, an important indicator was that consumers said jobs are easier to find, Rupkey said.

“Today’s consumer confidence shows labor markets recovering and that confidence is going to allow consumers to go out and buy homes,” Rupkey said in a telephone interview yesterday.

The National Association of Realtors probably will say tomorrow that the number of Americans signing contracts to buy previously owned homes rose 1 percent in March, according to the median estimate of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would put the pending home-sales index close to a two-year high. Foreclosure Supply

While the volume of sales has increased, prices still have a way to fall because as many as 6 million homes with delinquent mortgages and in the foreclosure process are likely to come to the market, Scott Simon, head of mortgage- and asset-backed debt at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., said yesterday on Bloomberg Television.

“We think we’d go down another 3 or 4 percent over the next 12 months, probably bottoming sometime next year,” Simon said on “Surveillance Midday” with Tom Keene. “One month doesn’t change anything.”

Robert Shiller, a Yale University economics professor and co-creator of the home-price index, also said prices may be poised to fall further.

“I’m more concerned about the downside than most people,” Shiller said yesterday on Bloomberg Radio. “I could see it staying languishing and edging down for years.” Rising Home Seizures

Foreclosure filings in the U.S. fell in the first quarter to their lowest level in more than four years after lenders under legal scrutiny slowed actions against delinquent homeowners, according to RealtyTrac Inc. Home seizures will increase as banks work through the backlog following a settlement by loan servicers over faulty mortgage practices, the Irvine, California-based data firm forecasts.

Meyer, senior economist with Bank of America in New York, said the recovery will be led by the parts of the country with fewer foreclosures and more job growth. She estimates that U.S. prices will reach bottom this year and stay little changed until 2014, when they may gain about 2.5 percent.

Home values in more than half of major U.S. markets will probably reach a bottom by the end of the year, according to Seattle-based Zillow Inc. Signs that the market is close to a trough include improving home sales and rising prices in some areas, said Chief Economist Stan Humphries. The market, which has been bolstered by investors, second-home buyers, and retirees, will need more traditional first-time and trade-up buyers to return for a rebound, he said. ‘Healing’ Market

“I characterize 2012 as a year in which the market is healing and the bottoming process is playing out,” Humphries said in a telephone interview.

Median prices averaged 5.8 percent higher in March than a year earlier in 53 metro areas surveyed for a monthly housing report by Re/Max LLC, the Denver-based company said in an April 16 report. It was the second consecutive month that home prices increased year-over-year and the ninth straight month of higher sales volume, according to the report.

“This year’s selling season is shaping up to be the strongest we’ve seen in years,” Margaret Kelly, Re/Max’s chief executive officer, said in a statement. “Although we don’t expect home prices to rise in every market at the same rate, the worst is definitely behind us, and a slow, steady recovery is taking hold.”

U.S. home prices compiled by CoreLogic, a Santa Ana, California-based real estate information service, had month- over-month gains in January and February when sales of distressed properties were excluded, said Fleming, the company’s chief economist.

“It’s just a matter of months before we get positive year- over-year numbers in the overall index,” Fleming said in a telephone interview from Washington. “Our data lags the reality. The turnaround is happening in the March, April and May time frame.”

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#1. To: Brian S (#0) (Edited)

The U.S. housing market is showing more signs of stabilization as price declines ease and home demand improves, spurring several economists to call a bottom to the worst real estate collapse since the 1930s.

Sure, buddy... Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.

I'd be happy to bet you that it has a long way to go, but being a socialist dirtbag, I know I'd never collect, when you lost.

From another analysis of your propaganda, "Sales of new homes fell 7.1% in March to an annual rate of 328,000, hold your breath and don’t be disappointed. The level of sales would have been much lower if the sales of new homes of February had not been revised to an annual rate of 353,000 from the earlier estimate of 313,000 and January’s sales was 318,000 and not 329,000 as the report shows today. Essentially, there were upward revisions of new home sales from December (small upward revision) through February, which has changed the recent trend of new home sales."

As usual, they're simply manipulating the stats to make Great Depression II to not look like we're still in a depression.

Do you actually *believe* the bullshit you post?


The economy is wonderful!
Re-elect Obama, he'll pay your rent!
A chicken in every pot!

-- Baghdad Bri-bri --

To: mcToejam, rat-boy, drippy, Alzheimer Fred, whitesands, t-bird, loonymom, ming, e-type jackoff, goober56, wreck, cal-CON, rabid dog, dummy DwarF, biff, harrowup the communist, and meguro. You're on the "a waste of human flesh" list. Brian S[ocialist], you're a propagandist moron. ALL of you can piss off.

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2012-04-25   11:22:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: Brian S (#0)

And it's comunism for the Top 1%.

Free Market capitalism for the Bottom 99%...;}

"However, if we look at workers 55 years of age and over, we find that employment in that group has increased by 3.04 million jobs. In contrast, employment among workers under age 55 has actually contracted by nearly one million jobs, regardless of which survey you use. Even over the past year, the vast majority of job creation has been in the 55-and-over group, while employment has been sluggish for all other workers, and has already turned down.”=John Hussman

1/2 of 2012 college grads can't get jobs. The USSA is now the lowest wage job capital of the OECD.

And $30-50,000 of debt for each 'student'. At least.

Housing approaching 1985 price levels.

Hard to imagine a future generation with lower financial living standards but this is simply the continuing trend of breaking apart the middle class.

Durable Goods order misses by 2 Sigma.

Worst since Jan 09.

"The participation rate for the over 65 age group is now at an all-time high. Do you think this has anything to do with home values dropping 36% since 2005, gasoline prices doubling since early 2009, food prices surging by 25%, the 1.4% annual return of stocks since 1999, or the .15% senior citizens can earn on their money today versus the 5% they could earn in 2007?

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-04-25   11:34:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: All (#2) (Edited)

Housing is not bottoming.

It continues and will continue to follow falling wages and debt de leveraging lower.

"If you thought low wage work was only for Chinese, Indians, and Vietnamese, you haven’t been paying attention. The United States is a world leader. We are by far the world leader among developed countries in percentage of low wage workers at 24.8%. I find it hysterical that the dysfunctional insolvent countries of Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Italy have a much smaller percentage of low wage workers than the great American empire. We have 142 million employed Americans and 35 million are slaving away in low paying thankless jobs. This explains why the half the workers in the country make less than $25,000 per year. "-BurningPlatform

Suburbia is being abandoned.

"Peak Housing reflects not just a credit bubble but Peak Fraud and Peak Suburbia.

Once again pundits are claiming that housing is "finally recovering." But they're overlooking three peaks: Peak Housing, Peak Financial Fraud, and Peak Suburbia, all of which suggest years of stagnation and decline, not "recovery."

http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

www.oftwominds.com/photos2012/Case-Shiller4-12.png When Case Shiller hits 75, the index will have started to bottom.

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-04-25   11:48:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: mcgowanjm (#2)

"The participation rate for the over 65 age group is now at an all-time high. Do you think this has anything to do with home values dropping 36% since 2005, gasoline prices doubling since early 2009, food prices surging by 25%, the 1.4% annual return of stocks since 1999, or the .15% senior citizens can earn on their money today versus the 5% they could earn in 2007?

Those are damning stats and unfortunately they seem to summarize current conditions quite accurately.

I hate grocery shopping these days.

Fred Mertz  posted on  2012-04-25   12:07:16 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Fred Mertz (#4)

;}

mcgowanjm  posted on  2012-04-25   12:15:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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