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Title: The Choice: Immediate Systemic Collapse or Printing More Dollars
Source: [None]
URL Source: http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-p ... printing-more-dollars_01272011
Published: Jan 27, 2011
Author: Mac Slavo
Post Date: 2011-01-27 16:37:34 by Capitalist Eric
Keywords: None
Views: 2060
Comments: 8

In his latest interview with The Gold Report, Shadowstats founder and leading contrarian economist John Williams says hard assets, namely gold, will be insurance against the coming economic Armageddon. Williams and Gold Report’s Karen Roche discuss a host of topics from government statistics to the coming economic meltdown.

On Government Statistics

The way I describe the economy is that it started turning down in 2007, plunged throughout 2008 into 2009. Basically, it has been bottom bouncing ever since. I’d caution anyone that we’re seeing extraordinary distortions in economic reporting, due primarily to the system never having been designed to handle a downturn of this severity. Post-WWII economic reporting is based on the presumption of ongoing economic growth and is seasonally adjusted. In tracking payroll employment for example, the assumption is that if a reporting company doesn’t report, it is still in business, so the government will impute what they think would have been reported. They theorize that any jobs lost through companies going out of business generally are more than offset by jobs being created by the companies that haven’t reported.

We’ve repeatedly warned that the government statistics are manipulated, sometimes on purposes, sometimes because the people compiling the numbers suffer from normalcy bias. Whatever the case, the economic picture is not as rosy as we’ve been told, and unemployment statistics are a clear sign of this. The official government unemployment rate, the one cited by the news media and optimism opium smoking sheeple, is 9.8%. The real number of unemployed, including all those who are counted as officially no longer looking for work and those who have fallen off unemployment benefits (i.e. the 99ers), is closer to 22% according to John Williams.

The Economy in 2011 and Beyond

Eventually, the continued economic decline will be recognized officially, but people will be talking about the second leg of a double-dip before it gets any official recognition. I don’t see any economic growth ahead. In fact, I see a pretty bad further contraction. For instance, as bad as it’s been, if you look at housing starts, the housing market never really had any bounce-up from the stimulus (except maybe a little bit in the home sales numbers tied the expiration of tax credits), and it’s actually started to turn meaningfully to the downside again. That’s bad for the banking system. It’s not good news for anyone.

The problem is we have a solvency crisis and an economic crisis that are ongoing simultaneously.

The ‘double dip’ oft discussed by economic talking heads is nothing but propaganda. A double dip suggests that we may have another mild recession, but it won’t be anything severe. It’s just a dip - not a collapse.

In reality, it is going to be much more than just a ‘dip.’

The Catch 22

There is no happy exit. The correct approach would have been to avoid the circumstance in the first place, but it’s the nature of the political system always to take a gain in the immediate future regardless of the expense over the long term. There have been many years of conventional wisdom that the deficit and the U.S. dollar don’t matter. They both do. There comes an eventual day of reckoning and that’s what we’re facing.

I think they’ll continue to do what they’re doing, and I can’t blame them. They have a series of devil’s choices. We’ve gone too far to bring things into balance. …

The current circumstance could have been avoided decades ago with prudent management of the government’s finances. Now, given the choice between immediate systemic collapse and printing more dollars, I likely would do what the government is doing, because printing money at least buys a little more time.

In a recent letter to Congress, Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner confirmed Mr. Williams’ views and suggested that we are literally on the brink of collapse. We either stop printing voluntarily now (which is simply not going to happen) or our creditors will stop buying our debt. It’s that simple.

The end result in both instances is a collapse of our economic system.

What Collapse Might Look Like

My views haven’t changed since we last talked. The ultimate result here is the government printing money to meet its obligations. The Fed effectively is funding the government’s borrowing. But as the economy continues to weaken, as the deficit worsens, as the Treasury funding needs increase, quantitative easing and monetization of U.S. Treasuries will have to increase. We’re going to see more and more foreign holders of dollars sell their dollars. I think there’s high risk in the next year of a panicked sell-off, a panicked dumping of USD-denominated paper assets. All of that will cause the Fed to continue to flood the system with liquidity, to buy up unwanted Treasury debt and stimulate inflation. As people increasingly don’t want to hold the currency because of the inflation, we’ll start to see higher inflation that quickly can evolve into hyperinflation.

I can’t tell you for sure that’s going to happen, but if I’m right about what’s happening with the economy and how the Fed will respond—with more, not less, quantitative easing—the general response in the world markets will be to dump dollars, and there is high risk of that in the year ahead.http://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-preparedness/the-choice-immediate-systemic-collapse-or-printing-more-dollars_01272011

We may have already triggered hyperinflation. Food costs are rising at an alarming rate. In a previous interview, John Williams suggested that we had perhaps a couple of months before the first signs of hyperinflation kicked in. That interview was in December of 2010. It is now more likely than anytime since the crisis started, based on rising prices for essential goods like food and energy, that inflation is the probable end result.

How To Protect Yourself

As an economist looking at the broad trends—I’m not an investment advisor—people in a USD-denominated environment will need to try to preserve their wealth and assets and protect the purchasing power of the dollars they have. That means holding some physical gold, physical silver, getting some assets outside the U.S. dollar. I still like the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and Swiss franc, and I think they will come out of this relatively unscathed versus the USD. Over the long haul, gold really is the preeminent asset, with a history of holding its purchasing power over time.

As we’ve discussed prior, hard assets will be the only protection for preservation of wealth during a hyperinflationary collapse.

Gold and silver are just a part, in our view, of any complete SHTF plan.

John Williams has suggested previously that there is a significant threat of disruptions to our food supply and the normal flow of commerce in the event of a collapse.

In the onset of such a collapse, even gold and silver may be difficult to trade for essential survival goods like food and gas. That’s why if your concerned with life during and after hyperinflation you should ask yourself what is money when the system collapses and how do i prep, invest and preserve wealth during hard times?

Value will be redefined in such an event. Don’t be sitting on Federal Reserve brand toilet paper - have some hard assets.

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#1. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)

There is no happy exit.

I think there could be a happy exit, but it's a very unlikely one.

We could immediately chop 35% of the federal budget, make 1 million bureaucrats available to the market, and replace the entire convoluted tax system with a national sales tax, which would make America the best place to invest and create jobs in the world.

Will some people feel some pain? Yes, the people who have been leeching off of taxpayers. The productive segment of society would feel immediate relief and become optimistic that things are turning around.

Will this happen? No way. The politicians will stretch out the hard decisions until we slam up against the debt wall and then they will start printing money. The likely outcome is global hyperinflation followed by a trumped up war against China to keep our minds off of the troubles at home.


Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. -- Winston Churchill

jwpegler  posted on  2011-01-27   16:46:34 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: jwpegler (#1)

We could immediately chop 35% of the federal budget, make 1 million bureaucrats available to the market, and replace the entire convoluted tax system with a national sales tax, which would make America the best place to invest and create jobs in the world.

It would help... but it wouldn't be enough.

The REAL debt that we're under is so high, that if the government stopped spending right now, and simply collected the same tax revenues, we'd still be hopelessly bankrupt.

It's too late, that's all...

"There will be no more money when the U.S. dollar has no value, until that time we can keep printing more." -- go65, LF's answer to Ben Bernanke --

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-01-27   16:52:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Capitalist Eric (#2) (Edited)

The REAL debt that we're under is so high

Yes, if you count entitlement obligations, you are exactly 100% correct. The future debt in those system is so large, they it can't be paid without completely destroying the currency like Germany did to repay WWI reparations.

In the 1990s, we removed welfare from entitlement status. We could do the same for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicare. It's just a matter of passing a simple law. It's not likely, but we could.

Those programs would still exists, but their funding would no longer be on auto- pilot. The Congress would have to vote every year on how much to allocate, like they do with everything else. So, the future debt obligation would be gone.


Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy, its inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery. -- Winston Churchill

jwpegler  posted on  2011-01-27   17:19:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)

Immediate Systemic Collapse or Printing More Dollars

Let it crash. The sooner it does, the sooner we can break the entitlement parasites of mooching off the productive.

Happy Quanzaa  posted on  2011-01-27   17:42:18 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Happy Quanzaa (#4)

I agree. IF the GOP and Tea-Party people in the House shoot down increased debt cap, the fireworks will start within a matter of months. The government parasites will be toast, and have to find REAL employment, at something productive. The parasites will suffer greatly, but WE will survive.

If they DO raise the debt ceiling, the government will essentially throw US under the bus, and destroy us to save themselves... And we will SUFFER during the collapse. Oh, they'll suffer the same fate, but AFTER us...

Unfortunately, a lot of people on this board don't understand, that we're gonna' go down hard- and quite soon- no matter what.

So yeah, we burn off the leeches, and suffer a little pain... or the leeches will suck the population dry, before they die too.

"There will be no more money when the U.S. dollar has no value, until that time we can keep printing more." -- go65, LF's answer to Ben Bernanke --

Capitalist Eric  posted on  2011-01-28   1:05:42 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: Capitalist Eric, Happy Quanzaa, go65 (#5)

Unfortunately, a lot of people on this board don't understand, that we're gonna' go down hard- and quite soon- no matter what.

No matter what? Then don't change a thing since its gonna happen regardless - is that not your climate change philosophy also?

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-28   1:20:55 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: Capitalist Eric, go65 (#2)

The REAL debt that we're under is so high, that if the government stopped spending right now, and simply collected the same tax revenues, we'd still be hopelessly bankrupt.

Raise taxes to Ronald Reagan era levels and problem solved......

"Keep Your Goddamn Government Hands Off My Medicare!" - Various Tea Party signs.

Godwinson  posted on  2011-01-28   1:21:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: Godwinson (#7)

Raise taxes to Ronald Reagan era levels and problem solved......

That's one approach.

And again, the government can't go bankrupt so long as it can print dollars.

Since January 3, 2011, Republicans have controlled the power of the purse.

go65  posted on  2011-01-28   9:08:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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