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Business Title: Manufacturing in New York Region Accelerates as Factories Propel Recovery Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Orders and sales at factories in the New York region picked up in January, signaling manufacturing will keep contributing to the expansion. The Federal Reserve Bank of New Yorks general economic index rose to 11.9 from a revised 9.9 in December. Economists projected an increase to 12.5, based on the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. Readings greater than zero signal expansion in the so-called Empire State Index, which covers New York, northern New Jersey, and southern Connecticut. Rising exports and demand for business equipment are boosting demand at manufacturers such as Intel Corp. Improving consumer spending may fuel production even more, giving the recovery an additional boost this year that may persuade companies to ratchet up hiring. Were going to see manufacturing benefit from a weaker dollar, with exports continuing to rise, said David Semmens, an economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. The turnaround is going to last. Stocks fluctuated between gains and losses, depressed by disappointing earnings at Citigroup Inc. and concern about Apple Inc.s leadership. The Standard & Poors 500 Index was little changed at 1,293.6 at 10:18 a.m. in New York. Treasury securities fell, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up to 3.36 percent from 3.33 percent late yesterday. Builder Confidence Other reports today showed homebuilder confidence has stagnated and global demand for U.S. stocks, bonds and other financial assets rose in November from a month earlier to reach the highest level since August. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index registered a reading of 16 in January, the same as the past two months and less than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor. Net buying of long-term equities, notes and bonds totaled $85.1 billion during the month compared with $28.9 billion in October, according to figures from the Treasury Department. The median estimate for the New York factory index of 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News survey projected the measure would climb to 12.5. Forecasts ranged from 5 to 20. The data included the annual benchmark revisions. Todays report is one of the first regional measures of manufacturing for this month. The Philadelphia Fed is scheduled to release its report on Jan. 20. Beige Book The Fed last week said holiday-season spending and increased manufacturing drove the economic expansion across the U.S. in November and December, with businesses cautiously optimistic about their 2011 outlooks. Manufacturing continued to recover across all Districts and Richmond, Chicago and St. Louis respondents identified a strong flow of new orders while the Philadelphia region said demand was erratic, the central bank said its so-called Beige Book report. The headline reading for the Empire State Index is a separate question rather than a combination of components, making it more of a sentiment gauge. The report showed every sub-index improved this month, indicating more broad-based strength. The Empire State gauge of new factory orders climbed to 12.4, the highest level since June. A measure of shipments increased to 25.4, a level last exceeded in April. Employment rose to 8.4 from minus 3.4. Manufacturers nationally added 136,000 workers to their payrolls last year, according to Labor Department data. In December, factory payrolls rose by 10,000, the first increase in five months. Prices Climb Todays report showed an index of prices paid rose to 35.8 from 28.4 in December, while prices received increased to 15.8, the highest level since October 2008. The gains signal factories are having some success in passing increasing raw-material costs to customers. Factory executives in the New York Feds district were more optimistic about the future. The gauge measuring the outlook six months from now climbed to 59, the highest level since March 2004. Manufacturing makes up 11 percent of the U.S. economy and about 6 percent of the New York economy. Overseas demand is helping to support factories. Exports rose 0.8 percent in November to the highest level since August 2008, according to Commerce Department data released Jan. 13. Intel expects revenue to rise 10 percent this year, Chief Financial Officer Stacy Smith said in a Jan. 13 interview. The remarks came after the worlds largest maker of computer chips forecast first-quarter sales that may exceed analysts estimates. Santa Clara, California-based Intel had revenue of $43.6 billion in 2010, an increase of 24 percent from 2009. In 2011, everything gets better, Paul Otellini, the companys chief executive officer, said on a teleconference with analysts. The economy is forecast to improve.
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2010 Xmas sales worst ever. Dismal Holiday Shopping Season Dooms U.S. Economy Dismal Holiday Shopping Season Dooms U.S. Economy Written by Jeff Nielson Friday, 14 January 2011 12:02 The most important number we need to begin this calculation is the real rate of inflation. As regular readers know, there is only one destination for those who want realistic statistical information on the U.S. economy: Shadowstats.com. Visit that site, and John Williams (the respected economist who runs the site) will tell you that as of his most recent reading, U.S. inflation was still running at about an 8.5% annual rate of increase. Now the raw data from the U.S. retail sector. Comparing December 2010 to December 2009, we see that total retail sales rose 7.9%. Subtracting 8.5% from that number, we see that the sales of goods in the U.S. fell in December 2010 to below the level of the two worst (previous) shopping seasons on record. If we look at the full-year numbers, the picture is even worse. Total U.S. retail sales in 2010 were up 6.6%, nearly a full 2% lower than the rate of inflation. This dismal picture is confirmed when we start a sector-by-sector review of U.S. retailers. Sales for local merchants were actually down 1.3% this December (even before adjusting for inflation). Similarly, sales at U.S. general merchandise stores, electronics stores, and food stores were also lower even before subtracting inflation.
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