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U.S. Constitution Title: Election Day 2010 Live Thread All the talking is done, today is the voting, tomorrow is the spinning. Discuss! ------- FWIW, I voted about 8 AM this morning, there was absolutely no line and I was in and out in 5 minutes. In 2008 I waited a good 20 minutes to vote. Post Comment Private Reply Ignore Thread Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 162. Here are excerpts from a few predictions by the major election analysts that were published in Campaigns & Elections two weeks before the 1994 midterms: www.thedailybeast.com/bel...east/a-midterm-flashback/
#29. To: Badeye (#28) (Edited) The reason I bring this up is that the current pundit predictions, although a rough estimate, are almost as uniform as they were then in predicting GOP gains of 50-60 seats. New York Times election guru Nate Silver has a detailed piece today explaining the unusual amount of uncertainty in this election and it truly is a must-read. As many of the analysts themselves acknowledge, just because the consensus number is about 55 seats, doesn't mean that much larger or smaller gains aren't possible for Republicans. There could still be some major factor in the races that the pollsters have so far failed to detect. Agreed. SIlver published two separate pieces showing why Republican gains could be much larger or much smaller than predicted.
#30. To: go65 (#29) Silver hedge his bet. Not impressed at all by THAT. Coons is panicking in Delaware, says the two biggest Dem strongholds are having anemic turnout. If the historical record of the pollsters holds up...it exceeds what I predicted. We'll see.
#36. To: Badeye (#30) Pollster's final prediction - 48 house seat gain for the GOP and an 86% chance that the Democrats retain the Senate (they have it at 48-46 with 4 undecided).
#37. To: go65 (#36) Pollster's final prediction - 48 house seat gain for the GOP and an 86% chance that the Democrats retain the Senate (they have it at 48-46 with 4 undecided). My Prediction: 70 plus House Seats go GOP. 10 Senate Seats go GOP. See you after its over. Enjoy watching our country find its voice at last.
#43. To: Badeye, ALL (#37) My Prediction: 62 GOP gains in the House 8 GOP gains in the Senate
#148. To: Brian S (#43)
Yep. Helluva night for the GOP. Surprised Californians and Nevadans voted to reinforce massive failure though.
#149. To: Badeye (#148) Yep. Helluva night for the GOP. Surprised Californians and Nevadans voted to reinforce massive failure though. Blame the tea party for promoting whack jobs. The Republicans should have won the Senate tonight save not for Buck, O'Donnell, Angle, and Miller.
#151. To: go65 (#149) Blame the tea party for promoting whack jobs. The Republicans should have won the Senate tonight save not for Buck, O'Donnell, Angle, and Miller. 'Blame'? You've lost your mind, I'm happy as hell the Tea Party is active. They now have an undeniable good track record overall, and have changed the GOP for the better. What this grassroots effort have acheived is amazing. My view is the GOP is better off not controlling the Senate, tactically. I would have rather taken it, obviously. But by just 'coming close' it means gridlock on the insanity of this Administration as it relates to cap and tax. It also means Owe-bama gets his first truly difficult political decision in January, does he dare veto extending the 'Bush' tax cuts? In elective office, I'd rather have a Democrat than a so called 'moderate' GO. Moderates are simply rank self absorbed opportunists. No thanks. I'd rather have a politician with 'known principals' so as to plan accordingly. Basically, better off without the Mike Castle's of the world IMHO. Under the radar today...the stunning gains at the Governor's level. Owe-bama won't have a chance in hell here in Ohio in 2012, especially after redistricting. You don't win Presidential election cycles without Ohio. We both know it. All in all, a big night for the GOP, a big night for the Tea Party. And Nancy Pelosi's 'House' has now received its foreclosure notice (laughing)
#154. To: Badeye (#151) You don't win Presidential election cycles without Ohio. We both know it. That's true, and yet Bill Clinton won Ohio in 1996 despite a Republican Governor.
#158. To: go65 (#154) That's true, and yet Bill Clinton won Ohio in 1996 despite a Republican Governor. With a booming economy, and a pathetic opponent in Bob 'Its my turn, damnit!' Dole, and a third party candidate. He barely won as we both know, not breaking the 50% mark in total votes, which is unusual as hell in POTUS politics, as we both know. That weird 'perfect storm' won't happen in 2012. And Owe-bama won't win Ohio anyway. He blew it.
#159. To: Badeye (#158) (Edited) With a booming economy, and a pathetic opponent in Bob 'Its my turn, damnit!' Dole, and a third party candidate. He barely won as we both know, not breaking the 50% mark in total votes, which is unusual as hell in POTUS politics, as we both know. Exactly my point - you don't know who is going to win Ohio until you know who is running. And as far as the 50% mark, you do remember that Perot ran that year, right?
That weird 'perfect storm' won't happen in 2012. And Owe-bama won't win Ohio anyway. He blew it. We both agree that things are going to get worse next year, maybe a lot worse. The GOP just took control of the House and state governments in a "tsunami" Are you telling me they won't get blamed when things get worse "AFTER" they take office?
#160. To: go65 (#159) We both agree that things are going to get worse next year, maybe a lot worse. The GOP just took control of the House and state governments in a "tsunami" Yep, thats EXACTLY what I'm telling you. POTUS is held accountable for the economy. It doesn't make any sense, but it is how it works with voters. They get credit (Presidents) they don't deserve intellectually when its good, they get blamed when its bad. Trying to blame the House if your POTUS for economic conditions simply won't get traction with the voters, especially the Independents. How'd that 'party of No' stuff work last night? It didn't.
#161. To: Badeye (#160) Yep, thats EXACTLY what I'm telling you. So it's "elect us and we'll cut spending and add jobs but we're not actually responsible for any of it" I really didn't think the Republicans would run away from responsibility this quick.
#162. To: go65 (#161)
So glad to see you in the forum again, Congressman Grayson....
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