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BusiesT casino gambling day -- in Las Vegas Status: Not Logged In; Sign In politics and politicians See other politics and politicians Articles Title: Put up or Shut Up (Predict outcome next Tuesday) Source: Badeye URL Source: http://n/a Published: Oct 27, 2010 Author: Badeye Post Date: 2010-10-27 11:50:41 by Badeye Keywords: None Views: 11018 Comments: 29 Okay folks, its time to put up or shut up. We have an election in six days that will decide if we want another two years of liberalism, or restoration of divided government as the Founders intended. I'm clearly on record as predicting 70 plus seats gained by the Republican Party in the House, and with it a clear majority there. I'm clearly on record as saying they will pick up the 10 seats required to attain a nominal majority in the Senate. Put up, or shut up. Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest Begin Trace Mode for Comment # 12. #3. To: Badeye (#0) 48 seat gain in the House. 5 to 7 in the Senate (GOP will lose in California, Washington, Connecticut, Delaware, and probably Illinois and Pennsylvania) 9 Governorships + Tancredo, who will win in Colorado. The GOP candidate will get under 5% in Colorado. jwpegler  posted on  2010-10-27   12:11:26 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: All (#3) (Edited) Here's how I see the Senate: The GOP will not lose any seats they hold now. The GOP will certainly pick up 4 seats: Arkansas, Indiana, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. The GOP will not pick up California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, or Washington The GOP could pick up an addition 4 seats in: Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia. I will bet on Nevada, which makes my base 5. If Illinois is close, it will be stolen from the GOP. Pennsylvania is like fools gold to the GOP (it always look good at first, but then turns out to be nothing). When was the last time West Virgina voted for a Republican Senator? 1958! jwpegler  posted on  2010-10-27   12:32:38 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #7. To: jwpegler (#5) The GOP will not pick up California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, or Washington The GOP has at least as good a chance of winning CO as losing. DE and CN are lost causes. The GOP gave away a sure seat in DE. CA is beginning to look that way, too. Slim shot in WA. The GOP could pick up an addition 4 seats in: Illinois, Nevada, Pennsylvania, West Virginia. They could easily pick up all 4. no gnu taxes  posted on  2010-10-27   12:53:20 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: no gnu taxes (#7) DE and CN are lost causes. The GOP gave away a sure seat in DE. I"m not so sure about the 'prevailing wisdom' related to Delaware, either the 'sure thing' - Castle lost the primary by a large margin - or if its a 'lost cause'. Delaware's polling data is notoriously inaccurate. Election cycle after election cycle, including this one. O'Donnell was allegedly DOWN 25% just before the primary for example. She won by 6%. We'll see what happens. Badeye  posted on  2010-10-27   14:52:32 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: Badeye (#8) Larry Sabato just released his final prediction: 55 seat gain in the House, 8 seat gain in the Senate. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2010102801/ go65  posted on  2010-10-28   9:40:29 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: go65 (#9) 8 seat gain in the Senate. My view is that possible range is 4 to 8. There aren't going to get all 8. jwpegler  posted on  2010-10-28   11:35:00 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   Replies to Comment # 12. #13. To: jwpegler (#12) My view is that possible range is 4 to 8. There aren't going to get all 8. I see it as 8 sure things, with five opportunities to pick up the other 2. We'll know by 11PM EST Tuesday night. Badeye  posted on  2010-10-28 11:37:39 ET  Reply   Untrace   Trace   Private Reply   End Trace Mode for Comment # 12. Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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