Using econometric models, Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi argue that the bailouts, the stimulus and other extraordinary actions saved America from nothing less than another Great Depression. Blinder was vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. Zandi is chief economist at Moody's Analytics and advised Republican presidential candidate John McCain. Had Washington not taken any aggressive steps starting in 2008, the results would have been horrific, their study says. Real gross domestic product would have fallen a "stunning" 12 percent, rather than the actual decline of 4 percent. Nearly 17 million jobs would have vanished, twice as many as the real count. And the unemployment rate would have peaked at 16.5 percent.
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Ignoring what might have happened had the government not launched a vigorous response may be irresponsible, but it can be good politics. That's because many Americans — seeing the weak job picture and forgetting their own terror during the early days of the economic freefall - can be convinced that such polices were ineffective and possibly counterproductive.
They remind me of family members who, four weeks after a quadruple bypass, want to know why Grandpa isn't dancing. At least the family knows that the operation was needed.
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