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Title: Oh, A Worse-Than-Expected Surprise (Non-Manuf ISM)
Source:
The Market Ticker
URL Source: http://market-ticker.org/
Published: Sep 3, 2010
Author: Karl Denninger
Post Date: 2010-09-03 11:02:50 by Nebuchadnezzar
Keywords: None
Views: 8677
Comments: 11
Oh, A Worse-Than-Expected Surprise (Non-Manuf ISM) Now this isn't good... "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 51.5 percent in August, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 54.3 percent registered in July, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector but at a slower rate. Still growth, so good, right? Uh, there's a problem, and it's internal. the Employment Index decreased 2.7 percentage points to 48.2 percent, reflecting contraction after one month of growth. The Prices Index increased 7.6 percentage points to 60.3 percent in August, indicating that prices increased significantly in July. Prices up and employment down. Note that services are 60% of our economy, and now we have a report that says that employment is contracting in that part of the economic spectrum. Now in contraction are both employment and new export orders, which is a horrifying development from a trade-balance perspective. The latter is going to cause problems with trade balance..... Backlogs are also to parity at 50.5, while imports are now at 50.5 as well, so there's no growth there either - only balance. Finally, inventory is too high. This is the worst number since January, which registered a 50.5, and is a monstrous drop from last month, which measured 54.3. Coming into the end of year (holidays anyone?) and particularly when one considers that services are a big part of getting goods to stores and such, this appears to validate the anecdotes that I've been hearing the last couple of weeks where service demand (particularly in the freight sector) absolutely went into the toilet during the last two weeks of August. I was scratching my head at the manufacturing ISM yesterday, since it flew in the face of the Fed surveys and the anecdotal evidence that I had in various sectors, particularly freight. This report appears to confirm the anecdotes. Worse, it appears that it may be validating one of my fears with the ISM manufacturing numbers - the inventory build may well be involuntary, (as I noted last night) and if so, big trouble is right around the corner. It certainly appears that the pump monkeys got a bit ahead of themselves with their chortling over "no double dip." I'd say the jury isn't back on that one yet folks..... Incidentally, I happen to agree that we won't have a double-dip, but for a different reason: I don't believe we ever left the recession in the first place!
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#1. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#0)
Fed surveys are useless. You overlay a Fed survey on a macro track and you'll see nothing.
Karl has been predicting imminent economic collapse for several years now, one day he may be right. :-)
We're in the process of a collapse.
Clinton and Cuomo are the true bandits who lit the fuse to this economic crisis we're now in. All in the name of getting more minorities in houses: http://libertysflame.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=12554
Most of the slowdown was in agriculture and health care. Both of them measure activity by revenues. Acgricultural prices always fall at harvest. Health care...that's a puzzler...
You proved today that your tagline is a lie.
Health care...that's a puzzler... Stats are lies now. Across the board. Only thing that's accurate: How much oil is being produced in State. How much is being imported. And speaking of one of the World's greatest harbors. Do me a favor and tell me what wind is gusting to now? Posted at LATOC minutes ago: "OK, I'm sure Boston had one of the most beautiful sunrises in it's history. Cause that Always happens right before a city on shore gets smacked by a Cyclone. And Would someone like to tell me why the latest GOES shot of Earl doesn't look like it's spinning in to E LI? And like I said earlier, LI will never get a head's up to evac. Cause the Only way for a Cyclone into LI is thru Cape Hatteras. And any warning that was off by, say 40 miles or so, would result in the IMMEDIATE removal of said person from whatever position s/he was in.
I'm landlocked here...but I just sauntered over to the window and see nothing blowing...not even a used condom or McDonalds' wrapper...
8D thanx for that. according to radar, the first rain band is now hitting Stamford. Thanx again. James
How is the GOM evacuation proceeding, mcclown? How close to your predicted millions of deaths are there?
Who looks out their window and expects to see a used condom? This guy is weirder than a 6 dollar bill. (I will refrain from the word association of dwarf and blowing though....even I get tired of noting the obvious linking)
Death to everybody who does not get outta my way. Below is the latest Dwarf revelation: ...."the shorts and bibs I wear are of a carbon/lycra/nylon composition......and maaaaaannnnnn....just letting everybody know that makes my balls SWELL......I'm just tooooooo sexy for you all!!" ....Dwarf August 2010.............. And one from the bluehair 2-legged GPS "I always get the Carolinas mixed up for some reason." ......Fred Jerx (who will doubtless figure out intricacy of that tricky "North / South" thing someday.
Who looks out their window and expects to see a used condom? This guy is weirder than a 6 dollar bill. HAAAAHAAA!! Just what I was thinkin'....("Gee, it's windy. I wonder if I'll be lucky enough to see any condoms wrappers fluttering up here at the 6th floor??") War, we love ya. Really. (I will refrain from the word association of dwarf and blowing though....even I get tired of noting the obvious linking) Yeah, that was a beach ball right down the middle. Too easy. ;-)
I was scratching my head at the manufacturing ISM yesterday, since it flew in the face of the Fed surveys
#2. To: war (#1)
And the Conservative plan to create jobs is......?????
#3. To: go65 (#2)
Karl has been predicting imminent economic collapse for several years now, one day he may be right. :-)
#4. To: go65 (#2)
#5. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#3)
#6. To: war (#4)
Most of the slowdown was in agriculture and health care. Both of them measure activity by revenues. Acgricultural prices always fall at harvest.
#7. To: mcgowanjm (#6)
(Edited)
#8. To: war (#7)
I'm landlocked here...but I just sauntered over to the window and see nothing blowing...not even a used condom or McDonalds' wrapper...
#9. To: mcgowanjm, All (#8)
according to radar, the first rain band is now hitting Stamford.
#10. To: Liberator (#7)
I'm landlocked here...but I just sauntered over to the window and see nothing blowing...not even a used condom or McDonalds' wrapper...
#11. To: e_type_jag, war, as a Courtesy Ping (#10)
War: "I'm landlocked here...but I just sauntered over to the window and see nothing blowing...not even a used condom or McDonalds' wrapper..."
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