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Title: THERE WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP…..
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Published: Aug 16, 2010
Author: Egon von Greyerz
Post Date: 2010-08-18 10:43:54 by Capitalist Eric
Keywords: None
Views: 13207
Comments: 33
WILL BE NO DOUBLE DIP...
by Egon von Greyerz, Matterhorn Asset Management
No, there will be no double dip. It will be a lot worse. The world economy will soon go into an accelerated and precipitous decline which will make the 2007 to early 2009 downturn seem like a walk in the park. The world financial system has temporarily been on life support by trillions of printed dollars that governments call money. But the effect of this massive money printing is ephemeral since it is not possible to save a world economy built on worthless paper by creating more of the same. Nevertheless, governments will continue to print since this is the only remedy they know. Therefore, we are soon likely to enter a phase of money printing of a magnitude that the world has never experienced. But this will not save the Western World which is likely to go in to a decline lasting at least 20 years but most probably a lot longer.
The End of an Era
The hyperinflationary depression that many western countries, including the US and the UK, will experience is likely to mark the end of an era that has lasted over 200 years since the industrial revolution. A major part of the growth in the last 100 years and especially in the last 40 years has been built on an unsustainable build-up of debt levels. These debt levels will continue to swell for another few years until the coming hyperinflation in the West leads to a destruction of real asset values and a debt implosion.
In the last 100 years the Western world has experienced a historically unprecedented growth in production, in inventions and technical developments leading to a major increase in the standard of living. During the same period government debt, as well as private debt have grown exponentially leading to a major increase in inflation compared to previous centuries.
Until the early 1970s the growth in credit to GDP had been going up gradually since the creation of the Fed in 1913.. But from 1971 when Nixon abolished gold backing of the dollar, virtually all of the growth in the Western world has come from the massive increase in credit rather than from real growth of the economy. The US consumer price index was stable for 200 years until the early 1900s. From 1971 to 2010 CPI went up by almost 500%. The reason for this is uncontrolled credit creation and money printing. Total US debt went from $9 trillion in 1971 to $59 trillion today and this excludes unfunded liabilities of anywhere from $70 to $110 trillion. US nominal GDP went from $1.1 trillion to $14.5 trillion between 1971 and 2010. So it has taken an increase in borrowings of $50 trillion to produce an increase in annual GDP of $13 trillion over a 40 year period. Without this massive increase in debt, the US would probably have had negative growth for most of the last 39 years.
Total US debt to GDP is now 380% and is likely to escalate substantially.
The coming hyperinflationary depression and the credit and asset implosion that is likely to follow will most probably lead to the end of a 200 year era of growth for the Western world. If only the excesses from the 1970s were corrected we might have a circa 20 year decline. But more likely we will correct the era all the way back from the industrial revolution in the 18th century and this could take 100 years or more.
So after the tumultuous and very painful times that we are likely to experience in the next few years, the West will have a sustained period of decline. All the excesses in the economy and in society must be unwound. These abnormal and unreal excesses are not just corporate executives, bankers, hedge fund managers or sportsmen earning $10s to $100s of millions but also a total collapse of ethical and moral values as well as a breakdown of the family as the kernel of society.
Most people believe and hope that this major trend change could not happen today with all the measures that governments have at their disposal. But very few people comprehend that it is precisely the government interference, controls and regulations as well as money printing that have created the problems in the first place. Power corrupts, and the more pressure a government is under the more they intervene. Because they believe that their interference in the economy will save the country 51; read Obama, or the world – read Gordon Brown. Little do they understand that each interference, each regulation or each dollar or pound or Euro printed will exacerbate the problems of the economy manifold.
Governments now have two options; continue to spend and print money like the US or introduce austerity programmes like Europe. Whichever way they chose will not matter since they have reached the point of no return. The economy of the West cannot be saved by any means. But governments both in the US and in Europe will still apply the only method they know which is to print money.
Government is Stealing from the People
Very few people understand that money printing is a form of robbing the citizens of their money and their work. Money is supposed to be a medium of exchange for goods and services equalling the value of the good or the service produced. For example, an individual works extremely hard to earn an annual wage of say $40,000 which he receives in the form of paper money. The government, due to its mismanagement and incompetence simultaneously prints $40,000 in order to cover its deficits. So the government has by pressing a button produced the same amount of money that a man had to work a year for. This is what is currently taking place all over the world and which will accelerate in coming months and years leading to a total destruction of paper money. Paper money has completely lost its function as a medium of exchange or a store of value. This is why gold is gaining and will continue to gain value against perishable paper that is called money.
Deflation Inflation or Hyperinflation
The only reason that the US could build up such a major debt is that the US dollar has been the reserve currency of the world and therefore the US has been able to finance its debts and deficits internationally. The US has now reached a point when debts have to increase dramatically for the country just to standstill. Like all Ponzi schemes this one will also come to an end – and this very soon. The US dollar will decline dramatically and lose its reserve status and the US government will be unable to finance its deficit in any market. This process will lead to endless money printing, collapsing treasury bonds (substantially higher interest rates) and the dollar becoming worthless in a hyperinflationary black hole.
Let us just reiterate that hyperinflation arises as a result of money printing leading to a currency collapse and not from demand pull. The slight deflation that we are experiencing currently is a prerequisite for hyperinflation. The fear of a deflationary implosion forces governments to print money, leading to a collapsing currency which historically has always been the cause of hyperinflation.
Real M3 (source: Shadow Government Statistics) is falling at an unprecedented rate. This is the precursor to economic decline, quantitative easing and inflation (see early 1970s in the chart).
Many “experts” make the analogy between the deflationary period in Japan since the 1990s and the US today. In our view the US is in a totally different situation for the following reasons:
- In the early 1990s Japan could still export their production to the rest of the world.
- In the current downturn all countries (even China and India) will suffer and there will be no one to export the problems to.
- The ability to export made Japan a creditor nation with major payment surpluses. US are a major debtor and have been for 25 years.
- Japan had a very high personal savings ratio at the time (which has now disappeared). US has had a declining savings rate for years (the US savings rate is now going up which it always does in a downturn).
- The balance of payments and the personal savings surpluses made it possible for Japan to finance their budget deficit without resorting to QE. Very soon he US will only be able to finance their deficits with QE and so will most of the rest of the Western world.
- Japanese unemployment in 1992 was 2% and went slowly up to 5% by 2000 where it is now. Real US unemployment is 22% and increasing.
- Many major sovereign states are now virtually bankrupt and the financial system is on life support. This was not the case in the 1990s.
The above are some of the reasons why the current US situation is totally different to Japan. QE will accelerate in the US and worldwide.
What will make this process so much more complex than the world has ever experienced is that the same development is likely to take place in many countries around the world simultaneously. It will most probably happen in the UK, the rest of the EU and most other European nations. Due to the total interdependence of the world financial system, it will be difficult to forecast which countries can withstand the coming worldwide tsunami of money printing but many Asian countries probably stand a good chance.
Can we be wrong in our forecast of a hyperinflationary depression? Yes, of course we can. But the alternative can only be a deflationary collapse which would be unacceptable to (dropping money from) helicopter Bernanke and deficit demagogue Obama as well as most other governments.
Conventional wisdom and most experts say that we will not have inflation but deflation. The problem with most conventional wisdom is that it is only conventional without an ounce of wisdom. When have the world’s so called experts, politicians etc ever been right on the current crisis? They will be wrong this time again.
The “conventional wisdom experts” also say that it will be years before we can see inflation or hyperinflation. In our view it can happen a lot faster. The world economy is resting on a foundation of matchsticks. All that is needed is a change in confidence or psychology for this fragile foundation to crumble. Falling currencies, rising bond yields and falling stock markets could very quickly result in a vicious and fast spinning hyperinflationary circle. The frailties of the financial system could make this happen like a flash fire.
Wealth Creation
Banks and the financial industry have throughout history existed in order to finance production and trading of goods. But in the last 100 years and especially in the last 20-30 years it has become a major industry in its own right and an important but unproductive part of the economy in many countries. Today, the financial industry is too a great extent involved in trading for its own and clients’ accounts, creating a raft of obscure instruments that only benefit the banks and as well as financing consumption rather than investment. All of these areas are totally non-productive and the only beneficiaries are the participants in the financial industry. And the rewards have been absolutely astronomical. In investment banking, hedge funds and private equity in particular, the most massive wealth has been created. Many players have become billionaires or created fortunes of tens to hundreds of millions of dollars in the last 10-15 years just by shuffling money around. In the past fortunes were created by building factories and industries. But today any normal employee working in Wall Street or the City in London will, by just showing up to work, make hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars. This is the proof of a world totally out of balance when people dealing in money become the richest segment of society. Since this activity contributes very little to the prosperity of a nation (but very much to its participants) it is not sustainable. The biggest reason why it exists is the massive amount of money that governments have created or printed and the fact that the financial industry has developed into a fractal wealth creation machine for the benefit of its participants.
For the last 40 years in particular the rich are getting richer and the average person has seen very little increase in real income. In the US, the real annual income of the bottom 90% of US families has increased by only 10% since 1970. And in the expansion between 2002 and 2007, median US household income dropped $2,000. The perceived increase in wealth for the majority of Americans derives from an increase in their debt level not from an increase in real earnings. So the improvement in living standards that the average American and many other Western countries have enjoyed in the last 40 odd years is primarily based on debt – debt that can never be and will never be repaid with normal money.
On the other hand, management has achieved a major increase in income and wealth. In 1973, chief executives in the US earned 26 times the median income. Today they earn 300 times. This enormous widening of the gap between the top few percent in society and the masses is morally and socially unacceptable. When the bad times start in earnest, this is likely to lead to major social unrest and violence directed against the privileged.
The Focus will Shift
For a major part of 2010 the focus has been on the problems within the EU starting with Greece, then Spain, Portugal, Italy etc. The problems in Europe are major and many European countries as well as the European financial system will lead to massive money printing. Although the problems in Europe are very serious, the US economy is in a much worse state. The diversion of the focus away from the problems in the US economy onto Europe has suited the US Administration perfectly. It can hardly be a coincidence, for example, that US rating agencies downgrade the Sovereign debt of Greece and Spain on the same days as Treasury auctions are held. But the problems in the US economy are deteriorating at a rapid rate; factory orders, consumer confidence, existing home sales, retail sales, the ECRI index (Economic Cycle Research Institute) are all falling more than expected and real unemployment, personal bankruptcies (will exceed 1.6 million in 2010), trade deficit, state and federal deficits are all increasing.
The ECRI index is an important leading indicator. It has now fallen for 10 straight weeks.
There are three insurmountable problems in the US economy that are of a magnitude and gravity which can only be remedied by money printing:
- Federal and state deficits will soon escalate at an exponential rate. The US Federal debt has increased from $ 8 trillion in 2006 when Bernanke took office to soon $ 14 trillion. Many forecasts expect this debt to go up to nearer $ 20 trillion in the next 5 years. In our view it will be substantially higher. Add to that interest rates of 15% or higher and the American people will work just to pay taxes that don’t even cover the interest payments on the federal debt. This is why the US will either default or more likely print unlimited amounts of money.
- The real unemployment rate is now 22%. Since 2007 over 8 million Americans have lost their jobs and it will get a lot worse. Non-farm unemployment in the 1930s reached 35% and we would expect this level to be reached in the next few years.
- The financial system is bankrupt. Banks are failing at a much faster rate than last year. In the first 7 months of 2010 circa 110 banks have failed. More seriously the assets of the failed banks are only worth an estimated 30-50% of their balance sheet value. Banks are valuing their toxic debt at phoney values with the blessing of the government. But even debt that today is considered safe will soon turn toxic with the consumer coming under enormous financial pressure. Add to that the OTC derivatives held by US banks of at least $ 400 trillion. A big percentage of these are worthless and there are virtually no reserves to cover potential losses.
Within the next few years, the three areas above are likely to result in the biggest money printing programme in world history and simultaneously lead the US (and many other countries) into the abyss.
Markets
There has probably never been a period in world history which has caused the amount of wealth destruction that we are likely to see in the next few years. If we are correct in our assumption that the West will see a correction of the excesses of the last circa 40 years but more probably of the last 200 years, since the start of the industrial revolution, we could see a total annihilation of the assets that have been fuelled by the credit bubbles. The spike in asset values in the last 100 years, which is unprecedented in history, is likely to be corrected by a waterfall which could start at any time. We will issue a separate report in the next 10 days covering our market predictions and the importance of physical gold for wealth preservation purposes. 16th August
Egon von Greyerz
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The coming hyperinflationary depression
This is why I'm buying silver coins. Still gotta eat when the dollar collapses.
#2. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)
We all know the economy sucks. Yes, we all know real UE is 22%.
Why do you keep posting the same worn out tripe day in and day out?
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#3. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)
the importance of physical gold for wealth preservation purposes.
Except for this. Right on the money.
The time to buy gold(and only in weights) will be when it can buy food and shelter.
And then, as land will be worth something like $50 and acre, which would you rather have:
The Oz of Gold or the Acre of Land.
#4. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#2)
Why do you keep posting the same worn out tripe day in and day out?
Sort of like the stale government gathered statistics you post all the time.
"See in my line of work, you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda." --- George W. Bush (Rochester NY, 5-24-2005)
#5. To: mcgowanjm (#3)
And then, as land will be worth something like $50 and acre, which would you rather have:The Oz of Gold or the Acre of Land.
You are 100% correct. Land, ammo and food are THE things to have.
With land you can grow food.
What the hell will Eric do when the "golden horde" shows up at his house with pitch-forks? Bribe them with his Gold?
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#6. To: mininggold (#4)
Sort of like the stale government gathered statistics you post all the time.
Bullshit. I post the updated and varying statistics.
His is the same crap day in and day out. Boring!
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#7. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#2)
Why do you keep posting the same worn out tripe day in and day out?
Why do you insist on posting banal comments on every thread, like a dog pissing on every bush in the neighborhood...?
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#8. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#6)
Bullshit. I post the updated and varying statistics.His is the same crap day in and day out. Boring!
Then take some responsibility for your own boredom and bozo him. Really... does everyone here have to lead you around by the nose AND keep you entertained?
"See in my line of work, you got to keep repeating things over and over and over again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda." --- George W. Bush (Rochester NY, 5-24-2005)
#9. To: mininggold (#8)
Really... does everyone here have to lead you around by the nose AND keep you entertained?
From his actions, it would seem that's exactly what he expects.
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#10. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#5)
What the hell will Eric do when the "golden horde" shows up at his house with pitch-forks? Bribe them with his Gold?HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Me thinks Eric will be nimble enough. Like the guy says to his partner as he's tying his shoes on:
"I don't have to out run the bear. I just have to out run you.
And there'll be a lot of 'you's' between Eric and the Bear. ;}
Just sayin'. 8D
#11. To: Capitalist Eric (#9)
From his actions, it would seem that's exactly what he expects.
Just trying to keep you honest, Eric. That is proving to be a full-time job!
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#12. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)
Riiiiight. No 'double dip'.
And Unemployment won't go over 8%.....(laughing)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
#13. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#11)
Just trying to keep you honest, Eric. That is proving to be a full-time job!
Ok, I'm gonna' speak straight... I don't get the impression that you're just a troll, trying to get a reaction, but instead, a person who honestly believes what they're saying. And more power to you, for that.
So my suggestion to you is to go to www.mises.org. It's a good place to learn, links together a lot of loose ends... And who knows, it might even make you some money... Because right now, you are poorly qualified to judge what is "honest" (with regard to economics). Frankly speaking, your current level of knowledge makes you feel confident, but ultimately dangerous to those around you.
Please note the following from the article:
Let us just reiterate that hyperinflation arises as a result of money printing leading to a currency collapse and not from demand pull. The slight deflation that we are experiencing currently is a prerequisite for hyperinflation. The fear of a deflationary implosion forces governments to print money, leading to a collapsing currency which historically has always been the cause of hyperinflation.
AND
Can we be wrong in our forecast of a hyperinflationary depression? Yes, of course we can. But the alternative can only be a deflationary collapse which would be unacceptable to (dropping money from) helicopter Bernanke and deficit demagogue Obama as well as most other governments.
...
Conventional wisdom and most experts say that we will not have inflation but deflation. The problem with most conventional wisdom is that it is only conventional without an ounce of wisdom. When have the world’s so called experts, politicians etc ever been right on the current crisis? They will be wrong this time again.
Whether you think I'm full of crap or not, I would advise you to study as much as you can on this subject (like at mises.org- good stuff without pretentious lectures)... because the more you know, the better you can protect and help your family, in the coming storm.
Regards,
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#14. To: Badeye (#12)
Riiiiight. No 'double dip'.
Did you actually read past the title, to (maybe) the second sentence?
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#15. To: Capitalist Eric (#14)
Did you actually read past the title, to (maybe) the second sentence?
No, he rarely does. It's much more important for him to make a stupid comment than to grasp what the article actually says.
"How many confirmed NV Mig kills do YOU have general? I only have three." - Mad Dog, the syphilitic psychopath
#16. To: Skip Intro (#15)
Heh!
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#17. To: Capitalist Eric (#13)
So my suggestion to you is to go to www.mises.org. It's a good place to learn, links together a lot of loose ends... And who knows, it might even make you some money... Because right now, you are poorly qualified to judge what is "honest" (with regard to economics). Frankly speaking, your current level of knowledge makes you feel confident, but ultimately dangerous to those around you.
I've been there before. I believe in much of what they-and I've stated already you-have to say.
Remember me saying that? You and I agree on about 95% of all economic issues.
What gets me is your off-putting style. When I ask you some reasonable questions, such as your portfolio after you've boasted about said portfolio-you go ape-shit on me and tell me it's none of my business.
What pisses you off is that I beg to differ with you.
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#18. To: Capitalist Eric (#16) (Edited)
but ultimately dangerous to those around you.
I find that funny. Most of my family rely upon me for financial advice.
I'm doing pretty well Eric. I have a large home outside of Santa Fe.
I have a 160 acre ranch in the South-western part of New Mexico.
Both are paid for.
My wife stays at home with my four kids and is running for political office.
I own my own business. Have done so for 21 years.
Oh, and here is the home I sold in 2006. Go ahead and look at the bottom to see the percent mark-up for said sale.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/683-Bienveneda-Ave-Pacific-Palisades-CA-90272/20542173_zpid/
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#19. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#17)
When I ask you some reasonable questions, such as your portfolio after you've boasted about said portfolio...
Tell me, where did I say had a portfolio? Please provide the link.
What pisses me off, is that you make translate my words to fit your preconceived opinions, instead of understanding what I actually said. With regard to my finances, my positions, my preparations, I am very careful it what I say, and how I say it... I mean exactly what I say, and that's all.
Before you start doing a search to find such a statement, don't bother... I never said that. I've studied portfolio management and risk analysis in painful detail, and when I finished, I decided that I'd be better to take my money to Atlantic City or Vegas, and lay it on the craps table... I'd have the same odds, and I wouldn't be paying someone else to play with my money (assuming, of course, the investment game was "straight," which it never is).
So far, my choice to forego "retirement" accounts like Roth-IRA or 401k or invest independantly, has proven itself out... since damn-near everyone I know has lost their asses in such games (prior even to the government announcing they were going to "dip" into such accounts, or direct fund managers to buy into the "too big to fail" entities).
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#20. To: Capitalist Eric (#19)
So far, my choice to forego "retirement" accounts like Roth-IRA or 401k or invest independantly, has proven itself out... since damn-near everyone I know has lost their asses in such games (prior even to the government announcing they were going to "dip" into such accounts, or direct fund managers to buy into the "too big to fail" entities).
Hmmmm...quite a gamble. I never miss a chance to reduce my taxes, which are heavy, and I do like the idea that when deflation takes hold of the nation, as it is doing, I'll be able to pick up some very nice stocks on the cheap!
The vast majority of my holdings are just cash, with some oil/NG investments.
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#21. To: Capitalist Eric (#19)
Tell me, where did I say had a portfolio? Please provide the link.
How much in Ag and Au do you have.
That is a portfolio.
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#22. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#18)
I find that funny. Most of my family rely upon me for financial advice.
Well and good. An expression I read in a Stephen King book: "Last time pays for all."
We're living in truly historic times...
Oh, I know, people think the memory of people like JFK, Marilyn Monroe and Nat King Cole will live forever. But 100, 200 years from now, nobody will know who they are (though some may quote the "ask not what you can do for your country" quote, for quite a while after that)...
The times we're living in now, will be talked about for millenia. The crash-and-burn times of the American Empire, repeating the same mistakes as the Roman empire...
It's gonna' be a whole different game.
From http://ferfal.blogspot.com/2008/10/thoughts-on-urban-survival-2005.html
URBAN OR COUNTRY?Someone once asked me how did those that live in the country fare. If they were better off than city dwellers. As always there are no simple answers. Wish I could say country good, city bad, but I can’t, because if I have to be completely honest, and I intend to be so, there are some issues that have to be analyzed, especially security. Of course that those that live in the country and have some land and animals were better prepared food-wise. No need to have several acres full of crops. A few fruit trees, some animals, such as chickens, cows and rabbits, and a small orchard was enough to be light years ahead of those in the cities. Chickens, eggs and rabbits would provide the proteins, a cow or two for milk and cheese, some vegetables and fruit plants covered the vegetable diet, and some eggs or a rabbit could be traded for flower to make bread and pasta or sugar and salt.
Of course that there are exceptions, for example, some provinces up north have desert climate and it almost never rains. It is almost impossible to live of the land, and animals require food and water you have to buy. Those guys had it bad; no wonder the Northern provinces suffer the most in my country. Those that live in cities, well they have to manage as they can. Since food prices went up about 200%-300%. People would cut expenses wherever they could so they could buy food. Some ate whatever they could; they hunted birds or ate street dogs and cats, others starved. When it comes to food, cities suck in a crisis. It is usually the lack of food or the impossibility to acquire it that starts the rioting and looting when TSHTF.
When it comes to security things get even more complicated. Forget about shooting those that mean you harm from 300 yards away with your MBR. Leave that notion to armchair commandos and 12 year old kids that pretend to be grown ups on the internet.
Some facts:
1) Those that want to harm you/steal from you don’t come with a pirate flag waving over their heads.
2) Neither do they start shooting at you 200 yards away.
3) They won’t come riding loud bikes or dressed with their orange, convict just escaped from prison jump suits, so that you can identify them the better. Nor do they all wear chains around their necks and leather jackets. If I had a dollar for each time a person that got robbed told me “They looked like NORMAL people, dressed better than we are”, honestly, I would have enough money for a nice gun. There are exceptions, but don’t expect them to dress like in the movies.
4) A man with a wife and two or three kids can’t set up a watch. I don’t care if you are SEAL, SWAT or John Freaking Rambo, no 6th sense is going to tell you that there is a guy pointing a gun at your back when you are trying to fix the water pump that just broke, or carrying a big heavy bag of dried beans you bought that morning.
The best alarm system anyone can have in a farm are dogs. But dogs can get killed and poisoned. A friend of mine had all four dogs poisoned on his farm one night, they all died. After all these years I learned that even though the person that lives out in the country is safer when it comes to small time robberies, that same person is more exposed to extremely violent home robberies. Criminals know that they are isolated and their feeling of invulnerability is boosted. When they assault a country home or farm, they will usually stay there for hours or days torturing the owners. I heard it all: women and children getting raped, people tied to the beds and tortured with electricity, beatings, burned with acetylene torches. Big cities aren’t much safer for the survivalist that decides to stay in the city. He will have to face express kidnappings, robberies, and pretty much risking getting shot for what’s in his pockets or even his clothes.
So, where to go? The concrete jungle is dangerous and so is living away from it all, on your own. The solution is to stay away from the cities but in groups, either by living in a small town-community or sub division, or if you have friends or family that think as you do, form your own small community. Some may think that having neighbors within “shouting” distance means loosing your privacy and freedom, but it’s a price that you have to pay if you want to have someone to help you if you ever need it. To those that believe that they will never need help from anyone because they will always have their rifle at hand, checking the horizon with their scope every five minutes and a first aid kit on their back packs at all times…. Grow up.
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#23. To: Capitalist Eric (#22)
A few fruit trees, some animals, such as chickens, cows and rabbits, and a small orchard was enough to be light years ahead of those in the cities. Chickens, eggs and rabbits would provide the proteins, a cow or two for milk and cheese, some vegetables and fruit plants covered the vegetable diet, and some eggs or a rabbit could be traded for flower to make bread and pasta or sugar and salt.
one of the reasons I moved from L.A. to NM.
The fuckers in the Cities, with a few exceptions, deserve what is coming to them.
Being a Democratic shill means you check your humanity at the door.
#24. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#23)
Unfortunately, my line of work requires me to be in the middle of big cities.
I just moved to LA. Picked up a house that had sold in 2006 for $500k, for $244K. Pool, hot-tub, landscaped, 2500 square feet, nice quality, just a lot of little shit that needs to be fixed... ironically enough, even though my house in Pittsburgh was only $205k, my mortgage is lower (including taxes, insurance and fuel costs) then renting close to my work... and we have all the trimmings, instead of a ramshackle Mayberry-era bungalo style shitheap house (with bugs, piss-poor AC, no pool and "Jose the leaf-blower boy" showing up every damned time I get a chance to sleep past 8 AM!).
Life is pretty good... Not perfect, of course.
The truth is that I "lost" six years of my life in the military, then a few years getting my head screwed back on straight, afterwards (they commonly refer to what I had as PTSD, though no such lable existed back then)... NOT something to be 'proud' of, per se, it's just a price you don't know you're gonna' pay, for some of the things you choose to do. Bottome line, I was completely fucked up when I got out, took a while to get back to civilian life... It took a while to get past the fatalistic attitude a lot of us had, something like "when it's time to check out, then ok, in the meantime, let's live like there won't be a tomorrow...
Finally settled down enough, to where I have a really good woman by my side, and two little girls (18 months and 3 years), so my priorities have changed. My cavalier attitudes of the past don't really hack it, in this scene. (LOL)
So, my aims are more about climbing the career ladder in my niche area, and setting myself up as an independent contractor, in a few years. If all goes as planned, I'll be spending a LOT of time flying to China, India, and other places where IT is still growing by leaps and bounds, and the infrastructure is lagging behind the demands of IT. [Since there are few real players in my area of work- maybe 100- I'll not expand further on what I do.]
It seems there are two strategies that are possible for success, even in the post-collapse world: have gold/money/tradable stuff to get what you need, or have unique skills that cannot be stolen, but can be bartered for other stuff you need... I'm banking on the latter, but trying to hedge my bets mostly with equipment in stuff I love to do anyway- end mills, CWG, welding, english wheeling, etc. If I have to use it to make extra cash, then I can. If not, then I'll use it to relax in the garage, building my next toy.
I'm done tonight. Later.
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#25. To: Capitalist Eric (#14)
I disagree with your premise. I know, its popular among some to suggest the American population is 'ignorant'.
All evidence to the contrary. What most of those promoting this premise are actually saying is 'I wish everybody was as smart as ME, and agreed with ME, cause I'm so BRILLIANT!'.
(chuckle)
You aren't.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
#26. To: Badeye (#25)
I disagree with your premise. I know, its popular among some to suggest the American population is 'ignorant'.All evidence to the contrary. What most of those promoting this premise are actually saying is 'I wish everybody was as smart as ME, and agreed with ME, cause I'm so BRILLIANT!'.
Considering how the American public isn't actively stringing up Greenspan, Bernanke and the POTUS, it's clear that they don't understand how badly they've been screwed.
The lack of any meaningful response to the elitist actions which are robbing the entire population, conclusively prove that Americans are ignorant.
(chuckle) You aren't.
That you disagree with my premise, equally demonstrates that you aren't qualified to judge the brilliance (or lack thereof) of others, on this subject.
But I'm sure that's not the first time you've heard that. (***wink***)
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#27. To: Capitalist Eric (#26)
Considering how the American public isn't actively stringing up Greenspan, Bernanke and the POTUS, it's clear that they don't understand how badly they've been screwed.
Riiiight. Lets do lynchings over political disagreements....(eyes rolling)
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
#28. To: Badeye (#27)
Riiiight. Lets do lynchings over political disagreements....(eyes rolling)
Uh-huh... Nice attempt to shill for the status quo.
"Naked force has settled more issues in history than any other factor. The contrary opinion 'violence never solves anything' is wishful thinking at its worst... People who forget that always pay... They pay with their lives and their freedom."-- RASCZAK, Starship Troopers
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#29. To: Capitalist Eric (#28)
You know better than to suggest I'm 'shilling for the status quo' so why post it?
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
#30. To: Badeye (#29)
You know better than to suggest I'm 'shilling for the status quo' so why post it?
You usually don't shill for the status quo.
This seems to be the exception to your rule.
We disagree. Fine.
Time WILL prove me right.
Unfortunately.
Democrats vs Republicans: The false paradigm of American politics
What paradigm? That is the type of response one would receive from the average voter in the United States today. It reflects the clandestine ignorance of the majority of the populace today. So the question becomes, why does the population continue to believe in the so called, left-right paradigm?
People continue to believe in fallacies like the left-right paradigm because they are inclined for some reason- to make decisions based on their feelings, rather than objective logic or rational thought unfortunately.
#31. To: Capitalist Eric (#30)
You usually don't shill for the status quo.This seems to be the exception to your rule.
We disagree. Fine.
Time WILL prove me right.
Unfortunately.
No shilling here, sorry.
Obama's first all-by-his-lonesome budget, btw, calls for a $1.17 trillion deficit.
#32. To: Capitalist Eric (#0)
You realize your chart showing M3 going through the floor is supportive of the deflationary theory, right?
Clinton and Cuomo are the true bandits who lit the fuse to this economic crisis we're now in. All in the name of getting more minorities in houses: http://libertysflame.com/cgi-bin/readart.cgi?ArtNum=12554
#33. To: Nebuchadnezzar (#32)
You realize your chart showing M3 going through the floor is supportive of the deflationary theory, right?
I've never heard of a "deflationary theory," before... Perhaps you could expand upon that...?
M3 is an indication of a deflationary trend. Of course, the Fed sees this as well, which is compelling them to do anything to keep that from happening...
Their actions will be over the top, and force hyperinflation to occur.
This has happened repeatedly, throughout history.
Same old, same old...
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