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I'm here for the moneuy Status: Not Logged In; Sign In Obama Wars See other Obama Wars Articles Title: Tuesday Primaries Source: Badeye URL Source: http://None Published: May 17, 2010 Author: Badeye Post Date: 2010-05-17 10:10:26 by Badeye Keywords: None Views: 2716 Comments: 13 Thought it might be interesting to hear everyone's predictions for the primary races taking place tomorrow. Off the top of my head: 1. Spector loses a close one to Sestak. I think the commercial Sestak is running is one of the most devastating I've ever seen, showing Snarlin Arlen getting heartily endorsed by W in 2004. Sestak then loses come November to Toomey is my early gut feeling, or Spector if the Philadelphia 'machine' pulls it out for him tomorrow. 2. Blanche Lincoln - wins a squeeker, maybe a run off is required. Then loses this November. 3. Rand Paul wins the Kentucky GOP primary by a larger margin than many suspect. Trey Grayson's Mitch McConnell ad hurts him more than helps him. Maybe turnout has an effect, supposed to be horrible weather tomorrow throughout Kentucky. And its possible the 'saturation bombing' the GOP old guard has been doing, at least in the Northern KY market (Cincinnati) can drag Grayson over the finish line. Its become very obvious the past two weeks Rand Paul's warchest is empty, and Grayson's is bottomless. Personally, I'd like to see Paul win this. Toss up in November is my gut feeling today for either. Add anyone you want to the thread. Lets see who knows what they are talking about, eh? (chuckle) Post Comment   Private Reply   Ignore Thread   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest #1. To: Badeye (#0) Spector is going to lose. Western PA dems didn't buy his conversion. Sestak wins in the Fall. Toomey is going to be painted as a Wall Streeter and have to answer for his part in the repeal of Glass-Steagall. #67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace war  posted on  2010-05-17   10:19:44 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #2. To: All (#0) Tough Senate Primary Races Pit Washington Against Everyone Else FOXNews.com Democrats and Republicans are watching three Senate primaries on Tuesday that could be another referendum on the status quo in Washington, D.C. May 16: Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa. , with his wife Joan, at his side, campaigns at a rally titled Delivering for Pennsylvania: Upgrading the Port of Philadelphia at the Packer Avenue Marine Terminal in Philadelphia (AP). Democrats and Republicans are watching three Senate primaries on Tuesday that could be another referendum on the status quo in Washington, D.C. Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Kentucky are all holding Senate primaries with the first two offering a sense of how hot the anti-incumbency fever is this midterm election year and the last providing a preview of the power of the establishment versus the insurgent movement. "There have been a lot of discussion about incumbency; we'll find out maybe something maybe about incumbency Tuesday in Arkansas and Pennsylvania where we have two Democratic incumbents in serious races," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said Sunday on NBC's "Meet the Press." In Pennsylvania, five-term Sen. Arlen Specter faces a big challenge from Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak. On Sunday, Specter defended his decision to switch parties last year and become a Democrat "I've tried to moderate the Republican Party. And when the stimulus came up and President Obama asked me for his support -- for my support, and it looked like we were sliding into a 1929 depression, I sided with President Obama. It wasn't my job to be saved," Specter told CNN's "State of the Union." But Sestak, a sophomore congressman and former Navy Vice admiral who spoke on the same program, said Specter needs to go. "He is a poster child for what's gone wrong in Washington, D.C. -- a generation of politicians who think that they can take a position not based upon conviction of core beliefs but about their electoral prospects," he said. While Sestak calls himself the "underdog" in the race, recent polling shows he's closed a double-digit gap with Specter in recent weeks. The latest Real Clear Politics poll average shows Sestak leading Specter by nearly 3 points. The winner of the Democratic primary in The Keystone State will likely face former Rep. Pat Toomey in the general election. Toomey, who gave up his leadership at the conservative Club for Growth in order to launch the bid, said it doesn't matter to him who wins the Democratic primary. he thinks either challenger will energize the Republican base. In Arkansas, incumbent Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is in jeopardy from a challenge on the left. She leads Lt. Gov. Bill Halter in polls, but could fall short of the majority she needs to avoid a runoff in June. Lincoln says she's a target of extremists on the right and left, and has carefully moderated her votes on Capitol Hill recently to reflect her independence. Halter tells voters he represents much needed change. "The message I'm giving to them is similar to the one I'm hearing from them, and that's Washington is not working for middle-class families in Arkansas," Halter told The Associated Press. "We're talking to them about the need for change. If you send the same people back to Washington, you're guaranteed to get the same results." "He's running against something he wants to be a part of," Lincoln said of Halter. "There's things about Washington that I don't agree with either, but that doesn't mean I want to run against it. I want to run to change it, and I did and I have. I don't think all of these extreme groups would be coming at me if I was the norm." Liberal bloggers have put Halter as the winner of the last debate held among Lincoln, Halter and businessman D.C. Morrison, who could deny Lincoln the 50 percent she would need to avoid a June 8 runoff. But recent polls show that Republican Rep. John Boozman, the likely winner of the GOP primary, holds a double-digit lead over any opponent. In Kentucky, Republicans are fighting it out in a race that splits Tea Party activists against establishment GOP. Kentucky Secretary of State Trey Grayson is backed by Washington Republicans like McConnell and former Vice President Dick Cheney. Rand Paul, the son of Republican Rep. Ron Paul, has the support of 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, retiring Sen. Jim Bunning and evangelical leader James Dobson. At a dinner Saturday night, Paul, an eye surgeon, cast the contest in the most serious terms. "I think that the times we live in are troubling," he said. "I think we face a day of reckoning." Paul leads by double digits in most polls. The eventual Republican Senate nominee in Kentucky will likely face a well-funded Democrat in the general election. Lt. Gov. Daniel Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway are the front-runners in a close race for the Democratic nomination. Kentucky is solidly Democratic by voter registration, but tends to vote Republican in federal races. McConnell said Sunday, whoever wins the GOP primary, the party will unite for the general election. "I think Trey Grayson would be a stronger candidate in November. But I expect Kentucky is going to be in a pretty Republican mood this fall. I'm optimistic that whoever wins the primary will be the next senator from Kentucky," he said. Oregon also holds a primary on Tuesday. But incumbent Democratic Sen. Ron Wyden is facing a longshot challenge from Loren Hooker, who describes himself as a "conservative constitutionalist Democrat" who is backed by the Oregon Tea Party. bit more info to consider. I can see November from my House. Badeye  posted on  2010-05-17   10:20:31 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #3. To: Badeye (#0) PA Primary Overview: On some levels, this has been a downright boring primary with what the public believes is a rather random list of uninspired candidates for public office. Don't tell the candidates that. Some have been hustling for votes for months. And given the importance of the 2010 elections nationally, watch for the results to be interpreted (and misinterpreted) in the most partisan ways on Election Night. On the ballot this Tuesday are party nominations (Republican & Democratic) for U.S. Senate, Governor, Lieutenant Governor, U.S. House of Representatives, PA Senate, PA House of Representatives, and members of the PA Democratic & Republican Party Committees. Toss in the mix some special elections to fill the seats of deceased or resigned incumbents, you pretty much have a full ballot of choices. But I don't expect a big turn-out at the polls. Pennsylvania has 4.311 million Democrats and 3.12 million Republicans eligible to vote on Tuesday. Maybe 25 to 30 percent of them will bother to vote. Independents and other party members (Libertarians, etc.) can vote in the special elections but not in the Republican or Democratic primaries. Independents complain about this state's "closed primary" system all the time, but party leaders in both parties don't want "outsiders" mucking around in their selection process. That means it will never change. Of the 67 counties, the biggest concentrations of Democrats are in Philadelphia (828,000), Allegheny (559,000), Montgomery (263,000), Bucks (192,000), Delaware (169,000), Westmoreland (129,000), Chester (127,000), Berks (122,000), Luzerne (113,000), and Lehigh (110,000). Obviously, southeastern PA is voter-rich for Democrats, but no Democrat can ignore southwestern or northeastern PA. The biggest concentrations of Republicans are Allegheny (241,000), Montgomery (231,000), Delaware (181,000), Bucks (177,000), Lancaster (169,000), Chester (150,000), Philadelphia (135,000), York (128,000), Berks (93,000), and Westmoreland (85,000). Republican voters are much more dispersed throughout the state. Party switches since the 2008 presidential election do not strike me as significant. Some 28,918 Republicans became Democrats, while 33,756 Democrats became Republicans. Of course, the most important party switch occurred a year ago when one of those Republicans who turned Democrat was named Arlen Specter. More about that below. While the party switches result in a net gain for Republicans, it's hardly anything to write a book about. Polls open at 7 am in Pennsylvania and close at 8 pm on Tuesday. There are 9,234 precincts or election districts in the Commonwealth, and traditionally the votes come in from the big urban areas first. Of course, the new computerized voting systems make tabulations a whole lot faster everywhere. Unless the races are really close, we should have winners by the 11 pm news. So what's going to happen on Tuesday? Read on, my dear Politically Savvy Friends. Can Sestak End Specter's Political Career? At a time when most would think of retirement, 80-year old Arlen Specter wants another six years in the U.S. Senate. And why not? Neighboring U.S. Sen. Robert Byrd from West Virginia is 92-years old, and Specter is much more vigorous than Byrd. Indeed, Specter's health has never been an issue in this campaign, although occasional fumbles - calling Democratic committee people Republicans - raise an eyebrow. Specter has already set the record as the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history, so another term is just adding to his legacy. Of course, he argues that his seniority and delivery of millions of dollars are reasons enough to keep him in the Senate. And every fair person has to credit him with being one of the most prodigious appropriators (perhaps along with the late U.S. Rep. John Murtha) for Pennsylvania. But whatever Specter has done over the last 30 years as senator tends to get lost in his admittedly politically self-serving switch to the Democratic Party in 2009. I give Specter credit for honesty. He had no choice but to switch if he wished to preserve his own political future and his ability to continue to serve Pennsylvania. Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey would have crushed him in the Republican primary, especially after Specter voted for President Obama's $787 billion economic stimulus program. In some ways, Specter has done everything right in this election. His party switch was embraced by the President, Vice President Joe Biden (Specter's old AMTRAK traveling companion), Governor Ed Rendell, the Pennsylvania Democratic State Committee, and the PA AFL-CIO. He has more money than anybody and has been endorsed by hundreds of local Democratic officials. Can you imagine any other Republican nationwide doing that!? Yet today, Specter is fighting for his political life. Enter U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak, a 58-year old career military man with just two terms in Congress who says Democrats should thank Specter for his service but move on to a new generation of independent Democratic leaders. Sestak is one of those gutsy guys who when everyone around you says "it can't be done" says "charge ahead." Last summer, when nobody thought Specter could be defeated in the Democratic primary, Sestak gave up a safe congressional seat on a bet that Democratic voters, in the privacy of the ballot box, would ignore their party and union leaders. Where Specter can sometimes come off grumpy, Sestak is effusive. He embraces you and, whether on or off the record, sounds exactly the same. People say he is difficult to work for (a charge often made against Specter, too), but he answers that nobody puts in longer hours than he does and he expects that of his staff. None of this matters in this primary election, where the candidates' personalities seem less relevant than ever. The only issue in this election is Arlen Specter. This primary is a referendum on Specter, pure and simple. After decades in which a vast majority of Democrats have voted against Specter the Republican, he and party leaders are now asking Democrats to vote for Specter the Democrat. And from President Obama on down, Specter the Democrat has turned to party and union leaders for help. It is one of the greatest political ironies of American history in that this is exactly what Specter the Republican did in the 2004 primary when President Bush, Senator Santorum, and top GOP leaders came to his rescue. In 2004, Specter eked out a 17,000-vote win over fellow Republican Toomey with about 1 million votes cast. Six years later, he just might to do that again, this time in the Democratic primary. Can you imagine! With greater resources and campaign organization than Sestak, Specter has thrown everything at the Navy admiral, from missing votes while campaigning to paying his campaign staff less than the minimum wage. [Campaign veterans laugh at this one, since most political campaigns are shoe-string operations with 'volunteers' who get little except pizza and soda pop, let alone a paycheck]. In a surprise, Specter even went after Sestak's military record, although that angered some veterans and seems to have been dropped as an attack. The latest attack - calling Sestak a 'politician' - honestly makes me chuckle, coming from Pennsylvania's most successful and enduring politicians, Arlen Specter. Aided by one of the highly regarded Democratic media outfits - The Campaign Group - that engineered Ed Rendell's come-from-behind primary victory over Bob Casey, Jr. in the 2002 Democratic primary, Sestak has made this a close race. After introducing himself to voters in one of the most effective 60-second commercials I have seen, Sestak's attacks on Specter using his own words and his own legislative scorecard (in which Specter is rated much worse than Sestak from some traditional Democratic-leaning groups) has been relentless. It all serves to remind Democrats that Specter is not really one of them. But, again, give Specter credit. He is a fighter and, by all accounts, has a much better campaign organization and field operation than Sestak. If Specter wins on Tuesday, it will be because he and his team did everything right. If Sestak wins on Tuesday, it will be because he had the guts to take on his party leaders, a message that resonated with Democrats, and Specter as an opponent. Can you say Senator Toomey? Former U.S. Rep. Pat Toomey has wanted to be a U.S. senator for a long time, and 2010 may be his year. Having nearly beaten Arlen Specter in the GOP primary six years ago and scared him out of the Republican Party in 2009, Toomey will cruise to nomination on Tuesday. The 48-year old Rhode Island native, who went to Harvard on scholarship, worked on Wall Street during the 1980s and then moved to Allentown PA to open a restaurant with his brothers, is an honest-to-goodness economic and social conservative. But the Catholic father of three does not have that hard edge demeanor that, say, a Rick Santorum brought to politics during his heyday here. Toomey has strong conservative views but does not seem quite as dogmatic as others on his end of the political spectrum. Toomey knows that to win in November in a state with 1.2 million more Democrats than Republicans he needs to reach to the middle - and he has done that by occasionally moving to the left of the more conservative members of his party. For example, he decried school districts that denied President Obama the chance to speak directly to students about personal responsibility when school opened last fall - and he said he would have voted for Sonia Sotomayor for Supreme Court. Of course, no matter which Democrat is nominated on Tuesday, Toomey will be labeled a right-wing product of Wall Street, out-of-step with average Pennsylvanians. He is likely to keep the focus on the Obama administration and "failed" economic policies and "over reaching government intervention" (read "Health Care Reform"). Polls show Toomey leading both Sestak and Specter. The latest Quinnipiac Poll has Toomey over Specter, 47 to 40 percent, and Toomey over Sestak, 42 to 40 percent. [Both Democrats have been quarreling over who is the stronger candidate against Toomey. Sestak says he doesn't have Specter's baggage, so he is stronger, particularly in an anti-incumbent year, while Specter argues he has beaten Toomey before]. But we are a long, long way from the November election. On Tuesday, Toomey faces off against anti-abortion activist Peg Luksik of Johnstown. Luksik has been on the ballot many times. She ran three times for governor, once winning 46% of the vote against then Republican Barbara Hafer in the GOP primary, and she set a record in 1994 as a Constitution Party candidate when she won 460,000 votes (12 percent) in a U.S. Senate race against then Republican Specter, the most votes that party has ever received. But nobody thinks she will set any records against Pat Toomey this year. Will the Democrats Find a Way to Break the Eight-Year Jinx on the Governor's Mansion? The last time Pennsylvania Democrats held the governor's mansion for more than eight years in a row was way back in . . . . wait, never! That's right. Unless you go back to the late 1700s and early 1800s when PA governors were called Democrat/Republicans, the state has never had a Democratic governor for more than two terms in a row. On the Republican side, you have to go back to 1938, 1942, 1946, and 1950 when Republicans won the mansion for more than eight years in a row. In short, the eight-year jinx that mandates that the party in power switches out every eight years has been holding strong since 1954. All this means that after eight years of Democrat Ed Rendell as governor, the Republicans should win the governorship this November. Not so fast, say Democrats. Pennsylvania is more Democratic in party registration than any time since World War II. The Republican field (in their view) is weak, and Pennsylvania (they say) is not ready to turn back the clock. Four Democrats want to make that argument (and many more) in November, and Dems will choose among Allegheny County chief executive Dan Onorato, Montgomery County commissioner Joe Hoeffel, Philadelphia state senator Anthony Williams, and state auditor general Jack Wagner. The polls have consistently shown Onorato, who was out early raising money and pitching a "reform government" message, with the lead with more than a third of the vote and twice the number of any competitor. That ought to be enough to win on Tuesday, given the divided pack, but the others have hardly given up. Williams, who has raised millions from several donors who like his pro-school voucher position, has assailed Onorato in TV commercials and seems to be in second place, in large measure because of strong support from Philadelphia's political establishment (including Mayor Michael Nutter and city Democratic chairman U.S. Rep. Bob Brady) and his own "think outside the box" television commercials. Hoeffel is the unabashed liberal in this race, strongly pro-choice and pro-gay marriage, and he argues that he alone reflects the real values of most Democrats. But without money to make his case, I would be surprised if he won any county outside his own. Wagner is the first choice of a hard core group of Democrats, especially veterans, and everybody's second choice. The familiar name on statewide ballots, Wagner is a decorated Vietnam vet and a conservative Democrat in the western Pennsylvania tradition. He, too, has lacked money to compete on television, but unlike Hoeffel he does have support among Democratic leaders across the commonwealth. If that materializes, Wagner could make a real showing, although strong voter turn-out in Philadelphia and its suburbs can alter this equation. Onorato is clearly the man to beat. The 49-year old executive of the state's second largest county (home to Pittsburgh) is a hard-charging, in-your-face politician whom some think is the Democrats only chance of holding the governor's mansion in 2010. He does have a record - he fired county workers to downsize county government, he led the fight to eliminate county row offices (reducing the number from 10 to 4), and he has kept his promise to never raise county property taxes. But he also imposed a 10 percent (now 7 percent) tax on poured alcoholic drinks at bars and restaurants to fund the county's public transit system, and opponents of the "drink tax" have vowed to defeat him. Most pundits would be surprised if Onorato lost the nomination, but with nobody surging out front in this four-way battle so much depends on who turns out to vote where. Onorato needs to hold his own against Williams and Hoeffel where he is known the least - Philadelphia and its suburbs - while keeping fellow Pittsburgher Wagner at bay in western Pennsylvania. Most expect him to do just that. We shall see. Can Tom Corbett Lead Republicans to the Promised Land? Like Moses, state attorney general Tom Corbett has a perfect head of beautiful white hair, although much shorter and better groomed than the leader of the Israelites. But no matter. After eight years of angst under Democrat Rendell, Republican Party leaders think Corbett is just the man to lead them out of the political wilderness. They may be right. As attorney general, the 60-year old suburban Pittsburgh resident has zeroed in on public corruption in Harrisburg with such zeal that it's hard to think of him as anything but a prosecutor. While his critics call him an "empty suit" on basic state government issues, my impression is that he has worked hard to "beef up" on those issues so as not to be outgunned by Onorato or any Democrat who understands the budgetary workings of government and the services it is supposed to provide. But none of that may matter if 2010 is the Republican year, regardless of who is the Republican nominee. Corbett has always had the luck of good timing. A lawyer who bounced back and forth between private practice and government service (assistant district attorney & assistant U.S. attorney), he was the western PA campaign manager for Vice President George H.W. Bush's presidential campaign in 1988. Bush's victory - and win in Pennsylvania - led to Corbett's appointment as the U.S. Attorney for Western PA. Four years later, Corbett was out with the change in administration. He then volunteered to help another ultimate winner, U.S. Rep. Tom Ridge, then an Erie congressman who shared the same GOP booster as Corbett: Republican national committeewoman Elsie Hillman. In the lead-up to the 1994 gubernatorial election, the heir-apparent was Attorney General Ernie Preate, a tough-talking Republican prosecutor. But one month before the 1994 GOP primary, the story broke that Preate was being investigated by the Feds for mail fraud. His gubernatorial campaign was fatally damaged, and in the five-way GOP primary, Ridge came out on top with 345,000 votes to Preate's 287,000. Ridge went on to win the governor's mansion, after which he appointed Corbett to chair the PA Commission on Crime and Delinquency. Later in 1995, after Preate was convicted and resigned, Ridge named Corbett to replace him at the state's Attorney General, his first stint in that office. After that term ended, Corbett returned to private law practice as general counsel to Waste Management, one of the largest waste haulers in the nation, before opening his own law practice. But Corbett's eyes were still on the Attorney General's office. In 2004, Corbett narrowly defeated Montgomery County DA Bruce Castor in the GOP primary, an ugly campaign wherein Castor accused Corbett of cutting backroom deals with GOP national committeeman Bob Asher, who in 1986 had been convicted of bribery, racketeering, and conspiracy. Asher had originally supported Castor for the AG job but tossed his support for Corbett, arguably the key to Corbett's 52,000-vote win statewide over Castor. Corbett went on to defeat Democrat Jim Eisenhower by 109,000 out of 5.4 million votes cast that November, and the rest is history. For most of his career, Corbett has been thought to be one of those moderate Republicans, like his mentor Tom Ridge or the late John Heinz. But the growing strength of conservative Republicans in Pennsylvania has pushed Corbett rightward in 2010. He was one of 13 AGs to file a lawsuit claiming the Health Care Reform bill is unconstitutional, and then used that lawsuit to raise campaign funds from those opposed to "Obamacare." Corbett has also signed a no- tax-increase pledge pushed by Americans for Tax Reform, a conservative anti-tax group founded by Grover Norquist, one of the leading architects of conservative politics in the United States. Corbett's move rightward should be no surprise, given the primary challenge he has faced from PA Rep. Sam Rohrer of Berks County. Rohrer is a true-blue constitutional Republican who wants to abolish the property tax. He has been hop-scotching the state, drawing support from Tea Party members in a grassroots campaign on a shoestring budget. Nobody expects Rohrer to beat Corbett, largely because most Republicans have never heard of him. But the threat from the right has forced Corbett to do some fancy footwork, which may require some equally adept moves back to the center for the November election. Quick Now, Can You Name All the Candidates for Lieutenant Governor? Why do so many people want to be Lieutenant Governor in Pennsylvania? Is it the residence in Fort Indiantown Gap, which includes a swimming pool, 5-car garage, and six state employees who maintain the house and cook for the Lieutenant Governor? Is it the salary of $147,000 for basically presiding over the state Senate and doing whatever the governor asks you to do? Is it the chance to be a heart-beat away from the real thing? Whatever the motive, twelve candidates are on the ballot, and I cannot name them all without a cheat-sheet. Republicans have nine candidates on the ballot: Steve Johnson, Jean Craige Pepper, Russ Diamond, Chet Beiler, Jim Cawley, Billy McCue, John Kennedy, Stephen Urban, and Daryl Metcalfe. Jim Cawley, a Bucks County commissioner, is endorsed by the state GOP, but he has been attacked in TV commercials by Chet Beiler, a former GOP county chair in Lancaster County for being too liberal. Shocker! Russ Diamond of Lebanon County was one of the most visible activists in the anti-pay raise movement in 2005 and founded PA Clean Sweep. Jean Craige Pepper of Erie is the only woman on the ballot, something that can never be underestimated in a multi-candidate field. PA Rep. Daryl Metcalfe of Cranberry is the only southwestern PA candidate, and his nomination would certainly spice up the ticket. Metcalfe is one of the most outspoken conservatives in this region. Democrats have three choices for Lieutenant Governor: Doris Smith-Ribner, Scott Conklin, and Jonathan Saidel. Some think Saidel, a former Philadelphia Controller, is the odds-on favorite, given high name recognition in southeastern Pennsylvania. But he is not helped by having Smith-Ribner, a retired Commonwealth Court judge from Philadelphia, on the ballot. That leaves just one candidate who doesn't hail from the City of Brotherly Love - former Centre County commissioner Scott Conklin. For whatever it's worth, Conklin has been endorsed by both the Pittsburgh Post Gazette and the Philadelphia Inquirer. Still, Saidel - endorsed by the PA Democratic Party and PA AFL-CIO - is the only Democrat running television ads in a race that nobody really gives a damn about. Is Nancy Pelosi Running for Congress in Western PA? Voters in this region can be forgiven if they think some woman named Nancy Pelosi is on the ballot this Tuesday. The special election in the 12th Congressional District held by the late U.S. Rep. John Murtha has featured a well-funded Republican effort to turn this election into a referendum on President Obama and House Speaker Pelosi. I swear Pelosi's name is on TV more than Republican Tim Burns and Democrat Mark Critz! This GOP strategy may turn out to be very clever - or a total dud. Let's back up a second. The 12th CD is the most gerrymandered congressional district of the 19 in Pennsylvania, stretching across nine southwestern PA counties. While it used to be a district based in Johnstown PA, today most of the district has little tie to that hard scrabble city 60 miles east of Pittsburgh. The metro Johnstown area of about 140,000 people was hard hit by the recession of the 1980s, but Murtha - the state's most powerful congressman - pumped millions of dollars into the region, attracting a number of military and energy-related companies to the area. With congressional districts in PA averaging over 650,000 people, Johnstown is no longer the base, let alone the hub, of the 12th CD. Perhaps 30 percent of the voters are in the Johnstown area, leaving 70 percent scattered throughout southwestern PA where the best way to reach them is through Pittsburgh, not Johnstown, media. That's why we in Pittsburgh have been inundated with TV commercials. Democrat Mark Critz, the 48-year old district administrator for Murtha, should win this special election, simply because the district is two-to-one Democratic. Under normal circumstances, a self-described pro-life, pro-gun, anti-health care reform, anti-cap & trade, pro-coal, pro-jobs conservative Democrat should breeze to victory in the 12th CD. But special elections are weird creatures, especially with basically unknown candidates and a more reliable Republican turnout at a primary election. Enter Tim Burns, a 42-year old businessman with little political experience but lots of passion to change Obama's Washington. Burns, who organized Tea Party rallies in his home county and was planning to run against Murtha, has become the GOP vessel to "nationalize" this special election. "A vote for Mark Critz is a vote for Nancy Pelosi. It's as simple as that," Burns told me the other day. Thus, every attack on Democrat Critz features the ugliest possible picture of Pelosi, spreading fear into the hearts of southwestern PA voters and accusing Critz of being part of the "LIBERAL" agenda of the Obama-Pelosi team. My favorite ad comes from some group called rightchange.com entitled "Attack of the 50-Foot Pelosi." It's a cartoon where an ever-growing Pelosi escapes "liberal San Francisco" to cause havoc across the nation, thanks to Obama. As the giant Pelosi stomps through western PA, the only thing that can stop her is a zapper (with Tim Burns' name on it) that shoots lightening bolts into the dreaded Pelosi. This attack would have been laughable against Murtha, but just might work against Critz who nobody really knows. The soft-spoken Critz has taken to the airwaves himself to try to deflect the charge that he is "liberal" but smelling blood the GOP has pumped over a million dollars into this race. If Critz wins, it means very little except Democrats voted for one of their own. But if Burns wins, watch for the GOP and the national punditocracy to declare that PA's 12th CD is the harbinger of this November's congressional elections. Who Wins the Republican Battle to take on Jason Altmire? While the Burns-Critz brouhaha is the most visible congressional battle in this region, it is not the only one. Republicans are engaged in a bitter fight amongst themselves for the privilege of taking on U.S. Rep. Jason Altmire, a Democrat who seems to have pissed off a lot of people in his own party. Altmire, a former UPMC [read 'giant health care provider & number #1 employer in region'] government relations executive, voted against the President's health care reform plan after trumpeting his undecided position on television for weeks. The vote was really no surprise to those who know Altmire well. He has been voting against Democratic leaders on a lot of issues since he was first elected in 2006, calculating his conservative PA 4th CD likes that independence. The public might, but local party leaders are getting sick of it, especially organized labor whose local leaders were so upset that they talked about a write-in effort against Altmire. Given the general perception that the country is "moving Republican" this fall, the GOP sees the 4th CD, once represented by Republican Melissa Hart, as fertile territory for a pick-up. Enter Mary Beth Buchanan, the former U.S. Attorney during the Bush years, who became well-known for her drug prosecutions (against Tommy Chong) and government corruption cases (including the failed attempt against Dr. Cyril Wecht). A skilled inside player, Buchanan had good relations with both former Attorney General John Ashcroft and Alberto Gonzalez and was the director of the Executive Office for U.S. Attorneys. No surprise, Buchanan was encouraged to run by some Republicans who see her as the strongest candidate to take down Altmire. But nobody told local conservative attorney Keith Rothfus that. Long before Buchanan got in the race, Rothfus decided to take on Altmire, right after he cast a vote for the Obama stimulus bill in early 2009. Rothfus, who nobody thought could beat Buchanan let alone Altmire, is one of those indigenous Tea Party type candidates who come out of nowhere. The father of six and cancer survivor himself, Rothfus says if the party nominates Buchanan on Tuesday her campaign against Altmire will fail because she will become the issue, not Altmire. He says Buchanan's role in the U.S. attorney firings - she claims none - will be dredged up, along with her unsuccessful but costly effort to convict Wecht - and all this will divert attention from Altmire. I still give Buchanan the edge in this race based solely on name ID, but a Rothfus upset is a definite possibility. He has raised more money in this generally low-spending contest, and seems to have taken the momentum. It's one of those local races worth watching on Tuesday night. My dear Politically Savvy Friends, there is always much more to chime away on, but this is long enough. A few other battles to keep on your radar screen: (1) Will former PA House Speaker Bill DeWeese lose the Democratic Party nomination to Greene County commissioner Pam Snyder? (2) Will Mayor Luke's brother Adam Ravenstahl not only win the special legislative election but also the nomination for a full two-year term? (3) Will indicted-PA Sen. Jane Orie, the former Republican Senate Whip, win her Democratic write-in contest against Ross Township commissioner Dan DeMarco, a Democrat, thus guaranteeing her reelection no matter what happens in court? #67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace war  posted on  2010-05-17   11:39:46 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #4. To: Badeye (#2) You pulling for Rand? I sure am. A K A Stone  posted on  2010-05-17   11:41:49 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #5. To: war (#1) Spector is going to lose. Hope so. Of course, he could always morph into an independent, and why shouldn't he? He's already been everything else. Skip Intro  posted on  2010-05-17   11:48:36 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #6. To: Skip Intro (#5) I hope he loses too. But he has not been everything. For example he has never been a Republican. A K A Stone  posted on  2010-05-17   11:50:03 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #7. To: A K A Stone (#4) You pulling for Rand? I sure am. Not really. I just think he's run a much better campaign against the GOP blue blood country club types. McConnell made a huge mistake getting involved, JMHO. That said, Greyson's ad campaign has saturated television and talk radio for the past 14 days, at least in NKY (cincinnati). Between that and the predicted weather (hard rain and T Storms again) voter turnout will probably be less than 20%. We'll see what happens. I can see November from my House. Badeye  posted on  2010-05-17   11:57:10 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #8. To: Skip Intro (#5) Was never a fan politically...he was best friends with my college girlfriend's step father. Met him about a year after he was first elected at her home in Philly's burbs. He is very funny looking in person. Very exaggerated features...but he gave me very good advice about getting into law school. I got in everywhere I applied. #67. To: war (#48) Keep hiding behind the bozo, bozo. (laughing) You've always been a world class pussy. Badeye posted on 2010-01-14 16:12:48 ET Reply Trace war  posted on  2010-05-17   12:00:00 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #9. To: A K A Stone (#6) But he has not been everything. For example he has never been a Republican. He sure had the RNC fooled then. I remember the Great Bungler George Bush supporting him over Toomey(at least I think it was Toomey). Skip Intro  posted on  2010-05-17   12:00:20 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #10. To: Badeye (#0) I think you nailed it on the PA Senate race. Dom Giordano, talk show host from Philly was just on Baltimore radio this morning and said exactly the same thing. He has an advantage, he knows all of these guys. Here's a great ad, God I love this guy. Wish I gave a second thought to all the job offers for Huntsville, AL, GA and Texas. MD is going down the tubes. reaganisright  posted on  2010-05-17   12:02:53 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #11. To: reaganisright (#10) It will be interesting watching the returns tomorrow evening, thats for sure. Spector losing the Dem primary would be Hilariously funny. given his ego, wouldn't surprise me if he launched a Independent run..a spit at thee at both parties. That is a good ad. And you are right, MD is going to hell in a handbasket. I can see November from my House. Badeye  posted on  2010-05-17   12:09:06 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #12. To: All (#2) Poll has Tim Burns ahead 48-47 Public Policy ^ | 5-16-2010 | Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Raleigh, NC 27604 Posted on Monday, May 17, 2010 11:04:06 AM by crosslink PA-12 close at the finish Raleigh, N.C. – The special election to replace John Murtha looks to be headed for a photo finish, with Republican Tim Burns leading Democrat Mark Critz 48-47 in PPP's final poll of the race. PA-12 provides a clear example of how dimly voters are viewing politicians and parties across the board right now. Hurting Critz's chances is that 55% of voters in the district disapprove of Barack Obama and 63% have an unfavorable opinion of Nancy Pelosi. But national Republicans don't do much better in the district with 60% of voters expressing a negative opinion of Congressional Republicans and 63% saying the GOP ran the country poorly while George W. Bush was President. If Burns does pull out the victory on Tuesday night it will be more because of a continuing gap in interest between Democratic and Republican voters in the off year election than anything else. Critz is actually winning over more McCain voters (14%) than Burns is Obama voters (12%). This race is not an example of people who voted for Obama who are now unhappy with him and voting Republican. But those planning to vote on Tuesday report having voted for John McCain by 5 points in 2008, compared to his actual 1 point victory in the district. And among voters who say they're 'very excited' to vote in this election, Burns has a 60-38 lead. Interesting news. I can see November from my House. Badeye  posted on  2010-05-17   12:12:11 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   #13. To: Badeye (#11) wouldn't surprise me if he launched a Independent run He, if you're going to steal shit from me, at least have the decency to give credit where it's due. Skip Intro  posted on  2010-05-17   12:12:58 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply   Top • Page Up • Full Thread • Page Down • Bottom/Latest

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