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politics and politicians
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Title: In Decisive California Primary, Ted Cruz Is in Control
Source: Breitbart
URL Source: http://www.breitbart.com/california ... lifornia-primary-cruz-control/
Published: Apr 27, 2016
Author: Jon Fleischman
Post Date: 2016-04-27 18:44:03 by cranky
Keywords: None
Views: 1348
Comments: 13

The question of whether business tycoon Donald Trump clinches the 1,237 pledged first-ballot delegate votes needed to win at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July will only be decided in delegate-rich California.

The race for the Republican nomination was not decided Tuesday, with Trump’s sweep through the liberal northeastern states. Nor will the battle end with the GOP primaries throughout May in Indiana, Oregon (or as Trump pronounces it “Or-E-Gone”) or Washington State.

When the polls close on June 7, only then will we know whether Senator Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) 97% will have stopped Trump, and set the stage for a convention showdown.

California will ultimately be a Trump-Cruz contest. While Ohio Governor John Kasich will, no doubt, still be running, his anemic effort to show that the establishment still has a horse in the race will be irrelevant to those California GOP voters who do not want Trump. To them, it will be clear that Cruz is the only one really positioned to compete for delegates.

California is a winner-take-all-by-district contest: 159 delegates will be awarded – three to the top-vote-getter in each of the state’s 53 Congressional Districts, with the ten statewide delegates and the voters of the three California RNC members going to the statewide plurality winner.

To stop Trump, Cruz will likely need significantly less than half of California’s delegates, as Trump needs to win over 50% of the remaining 622 delegates, and the map ahead for the reality-TV celebrity isn’t as friendly as it was yesterday.

Which takes us to the reality of the California political landscape, where statewide polling might be a decent indicator of how the 13 statewide delegate votes are likely to go, but the district-by-district showdown is a much different story.

There are two major reasons why recent surveys showing the Trump has a lead in California don’t hold up under scrutiny.

The first is that these polls are not broken down by district, but by region. In fact, the number of respondents to the surveys aren’t even a small sliver of the number that would be needed to predict voter opinions in 53 U.S. House seats. You would need hundreds of surveys completed in each seat. As an anecdotal example, the April Field poll, a very reputable public opinion survey released periodically, had only 588 interviews with likely GOP voters statewide — barely ten per district, on average.

The second reason to distrust the polls is that California has a huge number of ultra-liberal House districts where mere thousands of Republican voters in each will be deciding three delegate votes. You could not accurately survey this small number of GOP voters even if you wanted to – other than perhaps going out and interviewing each resident of the district.

In the Golden State, the factors that will truly matter will be smart voter contact and grassroots organization. In both of these areas, the Cruz campaign is well positioned relative to Trump. The former has been significantly invested in smart campaigning, targeting resources, and running a tight, smart campaign using the latest advances in voter identification. Cruz has been using voter contact tools ranging from social media targeting to geofencing. On the district level, these kinds of tactical considerations matter. And as for grassroots organization, the Cruz campaign has built an impressive armada all around the state, with an organizational structure and grassroots leaders in literally all 53 House districts.

Two anecdotes demonstrate the Cruz campaign’s organizational heft. One is the speed with which the campaign pulled together its delegate statewide slate – no small feat, since it includes delegates and alternates in every single congressional seat. And not just warm bodies – but conservatives committed to Cruz, and willing to travel to Ohio on their own dime!

The other anecdote is Cruz’s last visit to Southern California, just a couple of weeks ago. Two rallies, one in Orange County and one San Diego County, were announced at 9 p.m., and by 8 a.m. the following morning both had sold out, with thousands of attendees. Yet these rallies had only been advertised internally, to identified supporters and local party activists.

By contrast, Trump has had no organization to speak of in California, only hiring a staff person a couple of weeks ago. He is still trying to fill out a delegate slate, and seems to hope he can finesse California with a 30,000-foot campaign. (And of course there really is no Kasich campaign here at all, unless you count an endorsement from Arnold Schwarzenegger.)

Look for Donald Trump to continue to call himself the “presumptive nominee” of the party as he seeks to try to steamroll through the rest of the primary calendar. But if he’s actually going to reach the magic number of delegates, he needs to organize in California – fast. His problem is that Cruz has been at it here for over a year. (1 image)

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#1. To: cranky (#0)


The D&R terrorists hate us because we're free, to vote second party
"We (government) need to do a lot less, a lot sooner" ~Ron Paul

Hondo68  posted on  2016-04-27   19:04:52 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#2. To: cranky (#0)

Meanwhile, the billiionaires who are in fact the owners of the Republican Party, have taken a look at the outcomes and decided that Trump has won.

Now their influence comes into play. "Unpledged delegates" will start to drift towards Trump. While before Cruz was frenetically doing this and that to get some, the billiionaires have the ability to cause a "rethink".

And they are. It's going on behind the scenes. Trump didn't get 14 delegates in Pennsylvania. He got all 75. In state after state, the unpledged will follow the money that supports their local party chapters. And that means they will drift to Trump, by ones and twos and tens.

Sorry, Ted. it's not going to happen for you. People back the strong horse. Billionaires are people, and they have interests to protect. Trump will protect them. Cruz can't, because giving him the nomination in a floor fight after Trump has dominated the primaries would mean Hillary, and that doesn't protect the billionaires' interests at all.

Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-27   19:17:33 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#3. To: Vicomte13, cranky, All (#2)

Billionaires are people, and they have interests to protect. Trump will protect them. Cruz can't, because giving him the nomination in a floor fight after Trump has dominated the primaries would mean Hillary, and that doesn't protect the billionaires' interests at all.

Yes, Trump will protect the crony capitalist gang in which he is a member. And so will Hillary. In a Trump v. Hillary election the billionaires have both dogs in that fight.

Either you truly are ignorant about Trump or you are just another shill for Hillary.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-27   20:21:23 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#4. To: SOSO (#3)

Either you truly are ignorant about Trump or you are just another shill for Hillary.

Neither.

Billionaires are bending the knee to Trump, not the reverse. He's not bought, he's not paid for. He's not going to do what they want. He's going to do what he said. Some of that will hurt billionaires in their wallets in the short term and the medium term. Long term, America will be stronger.

The billionaires would rather not, which is why they've been working so hard to beat Trump. But it finally happened: a populist revolution simply, peacefully and democratically, through back the plutocracy onto its heels. They could not hold the party, so now they are coming to terms.

Trump is not going to be nearly as bad for most billionaires as Hillary. He's not going to be GOOD for them by any means. Their taxes will go up, free trade with China is going to be disrupted. They're going to lose their cheap exploitable illegal labor.

But Hillary offers much worse.

They're submitting to Trump.

As far as "another shill for Hillary", it's funny the way you conservatives are incapable of facing the truth head on. If I were for Hillary Clinton, I would say so, and I wouldn't be ashamed to say it either.

I say I'm a "statist" all the time because I am. I'm not a modern Democrat because I don't believe that babies are disposable.

I'm not a conservative Republican because I don't believe in favorable tax regimes for the rich. I believe in equally taxing everybody's wealth. It's the only fair system of taxation.

Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-27   20:35:48 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#5. To: Vicomte13 (#4)

Trump is not going to be nearly as bad for most billionaires as Hillary. He's not going to be GOOD for them by any means. Their taxes will go up, free trade with China is going to be disrupted. They're going to lose their cheap exploitable illegal labor.

LOL. Wow, you are delusional or a shill. Either way no-one in their right mind would believe what you stated.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-27   21:56:59 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#6. To: cranky (#0)

There are two major reasons why recent surveys showing the Trump has a lead in California don’t hold up under scrutiny.

The first is that these polls are not broken down by district, but by region. In fact, the number of respondents to the surveys aren’t even a small sliver of the number that would be needed to predict voter opinions in 53 U.S. House seats. You would need hundreds of surveys completed in each seat. As an anecdotal example, the April Field poll, a very reputable public opinion survey released periodically, had only 588 interviews with likely GOP voters statewide — barely ten per district, on average.


                                                T       C       K       Spread
FOX News         4/18-4/21  583 LV	4.0	49	22	20	Trump +27
CBS News/YouGov  4/13-4/15 1012 LV	4.8	49	31	16	Trump +18

A reason why Trump will win in California is that he is running against two dead guys, and they will be smelling very ripe by June.

nolu chan  posted on  2016-04-27   22:20:35 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#7. To: cranky (#0)

California, the home of governor moonbeam, is probably a lost cause.

rlk  posted on  2016-04-27   23:17:24 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#8. To: SOSO (#5)

Wow, you are delusional or a shill. Either way no-one in their right mind would believe what you stated.

Trump came out of nowhere and threw Jeb Bush, John Walker, Marco Rubio, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christi, Mike Huckabee, Carson, Graham, Pataki, Kasich, Cruz and 6 other candidates aside by focusing on two core issues that a struggling American electorate has been dying to hear addressed: illegal immigration and unfair trade. Those two issues have driven millions of former middle class Americans into poverty and precariousness.

The rest of the GOP played at it, but Trump has consistently from the beginning talked about a WALL to stop immigration and drugs, and about deportation, to clear out the illegals and open those jobs back to Americans. The rest of the Republicans hate that idea, and so do the Democrats. Trump is the ONLY ONE who has gone there, and stayed there. And he doubled down on it: the wall will ALSO keep out drugs, and we don't need Muslims coming in either until we get our intelligence ad immigration controls up to snuff.

Trump was maligned by the Republican and Democrat party for these positions.

And then, on trade, Trump has flatly said that China has been allowed to destroy our industrial jobs base through trade deals that are atrociously bad for American workers. Trump is the ONLY ONE who went there from the start and stayed there.

And he was vilified by the Republican and Democrat parties.

The only people who liked Trump are the People, and they have turned out in massive numbers, numbers never seen before in a GOP primary, to give Trump the win about 39 of 46 times (including overseas territories).

The "whole party" Establishment unified to stop him - and he blew out six states in a row with a huge margin.

Now he's going to go win Indiana.

Has he spent a lot of money? No. A pittance. He has surged BECAUSE OF his positions on trade and immigration. That is why he won.

He's not going to turn away from those two policy positions. He is going to enforce them. They are the key to his popularity. He has the people, and he will keep the people if he throws out the illegals and breaks the conveyor belt of jobs out of the country due to trade.

So that's what he is going to do.

Free traders and people who love cheap exploitable illegal labor hate Trump. They have fought Trump everywhere. And they've lost to him.

That's not delusional. It's true.

Trump's positions on immigration, trade and Russia are the REASON I am voting for him. I have listened to him all along. He has been consistent.

So, when he doesn't drop out, when he beats Hillary like a drum, and when he starts building the wall and opens direct and contentious discussions with China about trade, won't YOU be surprised.

A non-politician defeated the political class by not playing their game but by going straight to the people, directly on the most important economic issues. And then he carried through.

You're so used to being lied to by Republicans that you still can't believe that on the signature issues that won the American People over to Donald Trump, he has meant exactly what he said, and he will do exactly what he said he was going to do.

I fear that because you have dug in so deeply in your hatred for Trump that even when he DOES these things, you'll STILL hate him, still say that people like me, who were right all along about Trump, are idiots or "shills".

I'm not even sure what "shill" means in the context that you use it.

When I think of a "shill", I think of somebody who is a hired gun who pretends to be objective. Trump has never paid me a damned thing. Nor has any other politician. I am nobody of any consequence. I have a perceptive mind, I perceived that Trump was saying something different, I listened, looked up his litany of positions and realized he sounded good. And THEN I saw the degree to which Republicans curled their lips and hated him, and I realized that they felt threatened by him, because they fear that he's actually going to DO what he said. And I realized that Trump is the real deal.

So I've supported him. I'm not surprised he is winning. He is giving the people what they have said they wanted for years. He believes what he is saying, and winning against a fanatical opposition makes any man more fired up to impose his will once he has won.

Trump has been the frontrunner since the beginning. He will be all the way to the end. He will win the nomination, and the election, and millions of illegals will be deported. Chinese dumping in America will be seriously curtailed. And we'll have cordial relations with Russia again. That trifecta alone will improve the lot of Americans immeasurably.

That's what's going to happen. You've been wrong since the beginning. You're wrong now. And you're going to be wrong for the next 8 years.

Trump will be immensely popular because he will be effective. His Veep will be elected to succeed him.

So I hope he picks a good one. I personally think that the best one for him to pick would be Marco Rubio. Rubio saw his bright political career evaporate because he directly attacked Trump, and Trump was immensely more powerful than him.

Rubio attacked personally, and Trump hit him back. Rubio is now broken - no office soon, and no prospects. Trump can give Rubio a new future, as Trump's apprentice president. And Rubio can rise from the ashes as a Trump man.

Rubio brings things to that none of the others do. And having been broken, he is trainable.

Also, if Rubio declares for Trump, it's over.

Vicomte13  posted on  2016-04-28   6:50:01 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#9. To: cranky (#0) (Edited)

"To stop Trump, Cruz will likely need significantly less than half of California’s delegates"

Yeah. Carly will be a big asset there. Right away, Cruz can write off the 30,000 workers she fired.

misterwhite  posted on  2016-04-28   9:52:28 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#10. To: rlk (#7)

California, the home of governor moonbeam, is probably a lost cause.

Probably?

It has been for years.

There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't

cranky  posted on  2016-04-28   10:03:47 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#11. To: misterwhite (#9)

" Carly will be a big asset there. Right away, Cruz can write off the 30,000 workers she fired. "

PLUS, all of their family members, friends, and logical people with a sense of right & wrong. Probably be a LOT more than 30,000.

One must also remember that when she ran for office in CA, she was soundly defeated. Wonder why?

Si vis pacem, para bellum

Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't

Rebellion to tyrants is obedience to God.

There are no Carthaginian terrorists.

President Obama is the greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people. --Clint Eastwood

"I am concerned for the security of our great nation; not so much because of any threat from without, but because of the insidious forces working from within." -- General Douglas MacArthur

Stoner  posted on  2016-04-28   10:32:09 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#12. To: Vicomte13 (#8)

I have little doubt that Trump will get the nomination. That doesn't change the facts of who and what he is - a con man. He will not do any of the things you believe that he will. He will negotiate, evolve, think about it, etc. etc. etc. He is a member of the crony capitalist club and likes it that way. He will be every bit or more of an Imperial POTUS as Obama. IDM how many people vote for him. A well practiced con man CAN fool all of the people some of the time.

потому что Бог хочет это тот путь

SOSO  posted on  2016-04-28   11:05:17 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


#13. To: misterwhite (#9)

Right away, Cruz can write off the 30,000 workers she fired.

I'm not sure about that.

Ca has seen a general exodus of productive workers since y2k.

A whole lot of those unemployed/laid off workers may have left the state, looking for gainful employment.

There are three kinds of people in the world: those that can add and those that can't

cranky  posted on  2016-04-28   11:11:14 ET  Reply   Trace   Private Reply  


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